The Administration Thread

[Guest]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/18857684/derby-chris-kirchner-mike-ashley-takeover-loan-money/
 

On the basis that Kirchner funded the May payroll according to Nixon I am still hopeful that CK will complete the takeover this week.

This whole process has been utterly chaotic and I blame Q for that. If the article is accurate, and I have no reason to doubt it, why couldn’t Q hold their nerve for just a few more days to give the opportunity for the transfer to close. They’ve never seemed to be in a hurry previously.

if this is right Q have pocketed 1.6m pounds from him and then invited other parties back in before the funds, including the admin fees arrive. If CK completes this it will be no thanks to Q.

[CBX1985]

Hello everyone.  Nice to meet you all.  Found this forum a week or so ago, and in the circumstances have been reading frequently.

I do believe there is, perhaps understandably, a mismatch between business reality and fans wanting to "save our club".  Some of the business people involved also care deeply about football, and some this club; but business comes first and their backers are not going to want to "donate" monies beyond the relative value of the proposition.  

I work in financial services and investment.  I have previously worked at a global accountancy firm, where I for a while sat next to a company administrator - no, not Q - so have some familiarity with how these processes work in general terms. 

My analysis: is DCFC has VERY large debts.  DCFC has virtually no tangible assets.  Those we do have are players (if very few!).  On liquidation, unlike with other firms in most normal industries, those assets can leave for free on liquidation - so valueless to a liquidator.  We have considerable brand value (30k matchday attendees), all those here etc etc.  That brand value dies on liquidation, if EFL does not allow re-entry at L2.  Unlike with most businesses, the name cannot simply be sold as a way to pay creditors.

There is an old maxim: if I owe the bank £10,000, I have a problem; If I owe the bank a £1billion, the bank has a problem. That applies here.  On liquidation, the creditors get nothing.  Think about it, the players have no value and we don't own the ground.  We are left with paying £100m or whatever it is from old replica kits from the Superstore.

Ashley knows this, too.  As do all the buyers.  The reality is someone needs to be screwed here.  Liquidation screws everyone, but the admins need to extract as much as they can.  And so along strides a wonderful American who will generously pay a nice amount to said creditors for a L1 club.  No points deduction.  Keep Rooney.  40 new players.  He might as well throw Bale in to the mix as well, and consider putting a bit in for Messi.  It feels - not saying it is - a little too good to be true.  He is offering to be the one financially screwed for the greater good of everyone else.  And on cue the money doesn't turn up... makes you wonder.

What, in my opinion, this club has needed since January is to have the real crunch liquidation point - the club will liquidate on x date without x monies.  At the moment, creditors are thinking "I can get a 'good' deal from some naive mug" and are not considering the real haircut they are going to need to take to get some monies back, maybe 5 or 10p in the pound.  Once a potential vulture owner decides to accept the points deduction, why offer the creditors any less than a completely derisory offer (you get them to their lowest point before they refuse on principle)?  The points deduction will be the same.

This is Ashley's strategy (and probably everyone else bar CK).  He is planning to screw the creditors.  But this only works if you are prepared to hold out to the very very very last minute; and you can act fast to prevent the reapers axe actually coming down. 

The idea he will take CK's terms like-for-like is for the birds.      

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

[Mucker1884]

13 hours ago, Ramos said:

Just let them buy a stand each and be done with it. 

No way will I sit in the MA stand... etc, etc...  ?

 

#I'llsitwhereiwant, etc...

[Mucker1884]

Wow!
I take a 16 day holiday, with my club facing oblivion, and return to find we are now almost saved, and this whole sorry mess is all but over!
I have to say what a pleasant surprise.  This hasn't taken anywhere near as long as I feared.  Well done Q!

???

[NottsRam77]

17 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

Hello everyone.  Nice to meet you all.  Found this forum a week or so ago, and in the circumstances have been reading frequently.

I do believe there is, perhaps understandably, a mismatch between business reality and fans wanting to "save our club".  Some of the business people involved also care deeply about football, and some this club; but business comes first and their backers are not going to want to "donate" monies beyond the relative value of the proposition.  

I work in financial services and investment.  I have previously worked at a global accountancy firm, where I for a while sat next to a company administrator - no, not Q - so have some familiarity with how these processes work in general terms. 

My analysis: is DCFC has VERY large debts.  DCFC has virtually no tangible assets.  Those we do have are players (if very few!).  On liquidation, unlike with other firms in most normal industries, those assets can leave for free on liquidation - so valueless to a liquidator.  We have considerable brand value (30k matchday attendees), all those here etc etc.  That brand value dies on liquidation, if EFL does not allow re-entry at L2.  Unlike with most businesses, the name cannot simply be sold as a way to pay creditors.

There is an old maxim: if I owe the bank £10,000, I have a problem; If I owe the bank a £1billion, the bank has a problem. That applies here.  On liquidation, the creditors get nothing.  Think about it, the players have no value and we don't own the ground.  We are left with paying £100m or whatever it is from old replica kits from the Superstore.

Ashley knows this, too.  As do all the buyers.  The reality is someone needs to be screwed here.  Liquidation screws everyone, but the admins need to extract as much as they can.  And so along strides a wonderful American who will generously pay a nice amount to said creditors for a L1 club.  No points deduction.  Keep Rooney.  40 new players.  He might as well throw Bale in to the mix as well, and consider putting a bit in for Messi.  It feels - not saying it is - a little too good to be true.  He is offering to be the one financially screwed for the greater good of everyone else.  And on cue the money doesn't turn up... makes you wonder.

What, in my opinion, this club has needed since January is to have the real crunch liquidation point - the club will liquidate on x date without x monies.  At the moment, creditors are thinking "I can get a 'good' deal from some naive mug" and are not considering the real haircut they are going to need to take to get some monies back, maybe 5 or 10p in the pound.  Once a potential vulture owner decides to accept the points deduction, why offer the creditors any less than a completely derisory offer (you get them to their lowest point before they refuse on principle)?  The points deduction will be the same.

This is Ashley's strategy (and probably everyone else bar CK).  He is planning to screw the creditors.  But this only works if you are prepared to hold out to the very very very last minute; and you can act fast to prevent the reapers axe actually coming down. 

The idea he will take CK's terms like-for-like is for the birds.      

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

Think ur bang on.

welcome to the forum

[NottsRam77]

3 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

Wow!
I take a 16 day holiday, with my club facing oblivion, and return to find we are now almost saved, and this whole sorry mess is all but over!
I have to say what a pleasant surprise.  This hasn't taken anywhere near as long as I feared.  Well done Q!

???

Have i missed something overnight? 
 

we’re far from saved unless as i say iv missed something overnight.

last i read we we’re waiting for crypto funds to be approved and released by the sec, the fed, the naughty money police, steve gibson, that wycombe twonk, mel morris and every forest fan lol

[Mucker1884]

11 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

Well I dont think anyone on here have said anything wrong.

I strongly suspect that's because our mod team have been very, very busy tidying things up!
I've seen a couple of "warnings" from @angieram, and I'm only whizzing through, trying to catch up, as I've been lacking in my attendance, due to being on holiday.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

Hello everyone.  Nice to meet you all.  Found this forum a week or so ago, and in the circumstances have been reading frequently.

I do believe there is, perhaps understandably, a mismatch between business reality and fans wanting to "save our club".  Some of the business people involved also care deeply about football, and some this club; but business comes first and their backers are not going to want to "donate" monies beyond the relative value of the proposition.  

I work in financial services and investment.  I have previously worked at a global accountancy firm, where I for a while sat next to a company administrator - no, not Q - so have some familiarity with how these processes work in general terms. 

My analysis: is DCFC has VERY large debts.  DCFC has virtually no tangible assets.  Those we do have are players (if very few!).  On liquidation, unlike with other firms in most normal industries, those assets can leave for free on liquidation - so valueless to a liquidator.  We have considerable brand value (30k matchday attendees), all those here etc etc.  That brand value dies on liquidation, if EFL does not allow re-entry at L2.  Unlike with most businesses, the name cannot simply be sold as a way to pay creditors.

There is an old maxim: if I owe the bank £10,000, I have a problem; If I owe the bank a £1billion, the bank has a problem. That applies here.  On liquidation, the creditors get nothing.  Think about it, the players have no value and we don't own the ground.  We are left with paying £100m or whatever it is from old replica kits from the Superstore.

Ashley knows this, too.  As do all the buyers.  The reality is someone needs to be screwed here.  Liquidation screws everyone, but the admins need to extract as much as they can.  And so along strides a wonderful American who will generously pay a nice amount to said creditors for a L1 club.  No points deduction.  Keep Rooney.  40 new players.  He might as well throw Bale in to the mix as well, and consider putting a bit in for Messi.  It feels - not saying it is - a little too good to be true.  He is offering to be the one financially screwed for the greater good of everyone else.  And on cue the money doesn't turn up... makes you wonder.

What, in my opinion, this club has needed since January is to have the real crunch liquidation point - the club will liquidate on x date without x monies.  At the moment, creditors are thinking "I can get a 'good' deal from some naive mug" and are not considering the real haircut they are going to need to take to get some monies back, maybe 5 or 10p in the pound.  Once a potential vulture owner decides to accept the points deduction, why offer the creditors any less than a completely derisory offer (you get them to their lowest point before they refuse on principle)?  The points deduction will be the same.

This is Ashley's strategy (and probably everyone else bar CK).  He is planning to screw the creditors.  But this only works if you are prepared to hold out to the very very very last minute; and you can act fast to prevent the reapers axe actually coming down. 

The idea he will take CK's terms like-for-like is for the birds.      

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

Thanks for the explanation and while I respect your good intentions and your experience in the financial sector, what you have written has taught me little that is new in the administration process. But it does concern me that at this very late stage you are drawing attention to doubts about Kirchner , who has seemingly bankrolled the May payroll. Your reference to Bale and Messi is frankly ridiculous in the circumstances and uncalled for.

The situation regarding the late funds has been handled in such a way that too many fans have developed doubts about Kirchner that they didn’t all share seven days ago. We will all have formed definite and realistic opinions about him in the next few days when the money either arrives or it doesn’t. If the deal is completed this week his entry as the new owner will have been tainted in a way I am sure will disappoint him personally. Until then give the guy a break - we are still hoping for a good relationship with him, Gary Cook and Wayne Rooney.

This is not meant to be critical of you but is something I have to say as a supporter at this critical time for all of us.

So welcome to the forum.

 

 

 

 

[Oldben]

Cbx1985 I agree with yoir analysis in part.

However, some assets might appear worthless but investors see the future value.

Investors in bitcoin didn't see the tangible value of the asset but the intangible value, the future unrealised value of the asset.

When someone purchased a Banksy art work many years ago, that art work on face value had little value. Yet now that same art work can be worth a fortune.

Dcfc value is very little, as long as it remains in League one.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.goal.com/en-gb/amp/news/championship-play-off-final-how-much-premier-league/17nz5miq9ytix1wkm1w5q2kozd

"How much does the Championship play-off winner earn?

Winning the Championship play-off final and earning promotion to the Premier League is understood to be worth hundreds of millions of pounds, though it varies season by season.

In 2020, Deloitte suggested that victory in the play-off final could see an increase in revenue of between £135 million ($167m) to £265 million ($328m), depending on whether a promoted team can avoid immediate relegation.

Official figures for the 2020-21 season showed that broadcast revenue totalling more than £2.5 billion ($3bn) was distributed among the 20 clubs in the Premier League.

Of that, each club was guaranteed at least £31.4m ($38.9m) in equal share payments, £47.5m ($58.8m) in international TV and £5.9m ($7.3m) in central commercial payments: a base line of roughly £84.8 million ($105m) per team, regardless of position.

As well as that, clubs were given merit payments - ranging from £1.7m ($2.1m) for last-placed Sheffield United to £34.9m ($43.2m) for champions Manchester City - and 'facility fees' which depended upon the number of televised games they were involved in."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFL_League_One_play-offs#:~:text=EFL League One.-,Prize,funded by the Premier League.

"The financial value of winning the EFL League One play-off is derived from the additional remuneration clubs receive in the Championship. As of 2018 clubs in the third tier receive around £1.4 million, comprising a "basic award" and a "solidarity" payment, the latter of which is funded by the Premier League.[25] In the second tier, the total funding rises to a total of around £7 million, a fivefold increase in revenue.[26][27] The winners of the final receive a trophy.[28][29]"

 

[BathRam72]

24 minutes ago, NottsRam77 said:

Have i missed something overnight? 
 

we’re far from saved unless as i say iv missed something overnight.

last i read we we’re waiting for crypto funds to be approved and released by the sec, the fed, the naughty money police, steve gibson, that wycombe twonk, mel morris and every forest fan lol

I think judging by the eyes at the bottom,  that the post was tongue in cheek and sarcastic 

[Mucker1884]

7 hours ago, Alan Ramage 4 EVA said:

We could do with the Driscoll brothers buying us .

 

I bet there NOT dodgy ?

 

7 hours ago, Boycie said:

I’d take the Mitchell brother at the moment.

I'd be happy for Bros to "sneak in the back door"!  

[Carnero]

6 hours ago, Ram1988 said:

If Clownes was interested in PP they could well be interested in the club as a whole as well.

CLOWES!

It's CLOWES!

Goddammit.

[CBX1985]

2 minutes ago, Brailsford Ram said:

Thanks for the explanation and while I respect your good intentions and your experience in the financial sector, what you have written has taught me little that is new in the administration process. But it does concern me that at this very late stage you are drawing attention to doubts about Kirchner , who has seemingly bankrolled the May payroll. Your reference to Bale and Messi is frankly ridiculous in the circumstances and uncalled for.

The situation regarding the late funds has been handled in such a way that too many fans have developed doubts about Kirchner that they didn’t all share seven days ago. We will all have formed definite and realistic opinions about him in the next few days when the money either arrives or it doesn’t. If the deal is completed this week his entry as the new owner will have been tainted in a way I am sure will disappoint him personally. Until then give the guy a break - we are still hoping for a good relationship with him, Gary Cook and Wayne Rooney.

This is not meant to be critical of you but is something I have to say as a supporter at this critical time for all of us.

So welcome to the forum.

 

 

 

 

Thank you for the welcome.  I don't take it as critical at all ?

I try not to deal in things I don't know.     I have no idea of who paid what to who etc.  Nor do you.  Reports in The Sun are not reliable - "my source has told me" does not make it true. Other reports contradict.  

My Bale/Messi comment is a rhetorical way of pointing out that CK feels a little too good to be true.  Not saying he is.  Would jump for joy if he isn't.   

[Gaspode]

3 minutes ago, Carnero said:

CLOWES!

It's CLOWES!

Goddammit.

[Mucker1884]

29 minutes ago, NottsRam77 said:

Have i missed something overnight? 
 

we’re far from saved unless as i say iv missed something overnight.

last i read we we’re waiting for crypto funds to be approved and released by the sec, the fed, the naughty money police, steve gibson, that wycombe twonk, mel morris and every forest fan lol

You've missed nothing in 1,930 pages, let alone overnight!  I was being sarcastic.  When I set off (26th May), it was reputedly all but done!  ?

[NottsRam77]

21 minutes ago, BathRam72 said:

I think judging by the eyes at the bottom,  that the post was tongue in cheek and sarcastic 

Lol, yes i think your right lol…. Forgive its early and the kids have been up since 5am… i got excited and thought have i missed some breaking news lol

[NottsRam77]

13 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

You've missed nothing in 1,930 pages, let alone overnight!  I was being sarcastic.  When I set off (26th May), it was reputedly all but done!  ?

???

[nogbad van 50]

9 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

I am not sure Ashley has got where he has today by doing the right thing…

 

[CBX1985]

26 minutes ago, Oldben said:

Cbx1985 I agree with yoir analysis in part.

However, some assets might appear worthless but investors see the future value.

Investors in bitcoin didn't see the tangible value of the asset but the intangible value, the future unrealised value of the asset.

When someone purchased a Banksy art work many years ago, that art work on face value had little value. Yet now that same art work can be worth a fortune.

Dcfc value is very little, as long as it remains in League one.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.goal.com/en-gb/amp/news/championship-play-off-final-how-much-premier-league/17nz5miq9ytix1wkm1w5q2kozd

"How much does the Championship play-off winner earn?

Winning the Championship play-off final and earning promotion to the Premier League is understood to be worth hundreds of millions of pounds, though it varies season by season.

In 2020, Deloitte suggested that victory in the play-off final could see an increase in revenue of between £135 million ($167m) to £265 million ($328m), depending on whether a promoted team can avoid immediate relegation.

Official figures for the 2020-21 season showed that broadcast revenue totalling more than £2.5 billion ($3bn) was distributed among the 20 clubs in the Premier League.

Of that, each club was guaranteed at least £31.4m ($38.9m) in equal share payments, £47.5m ($58.8m) in international TV and £5.9m ($7.3m) in central commercial payments: a base line of roughly £84.8 million ($105m) per team, regardless of position.

As well as that, clubs were given merit payments - ranging from £1.7m ($2.1m) for last-placed Sheffield United to £34.9m ($43.2m) for champions Manchester City - and 'facility fees' which depended upon the number of televised games they were involved in."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFL_League_One_play-offs#:~:text=EFL League One.-,Prize,funded by the Premier League.

"The financial value of winning the EFL League One play-off is derived from the additional remuneration clubs receive in the Championship. As of 2018 clubs in the third tier receive around £1.4 million, comprising a "basic award" and a "solidarity" payment, the latter of which is funded by the Premier League.[25] In the second tier, the total funding rises to a total of around £7 million, a fivefold increase in revenue.[26][27] The winners of the final receive a trophy.[28][29]"

 

My point regards liquidation and the threat thereof. DCFC brand has considerable value as a football club; it has no value if it is not a football club (and has been liquidated).  Going to division 14, no one is going to pay for that brand in that league.

Players have no value if they can leave on liquidation. 

 

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

1 hour ago, CBX1985 said:

Hello everyone.  Nice to meet you all.  Found this forum a week or so ago, and in the circumstances have been reading frequently.

I do believe there is, perhaps understandably, a mismatch between business reality and fans wanting to "save our club".  Some of the business people involved also care deeply about football, and some this club; but business comes first and their backers are not going to want to "donate" monies beyond the relative value of the proposition.  

I work in financial services and investment.  I have previously worked at a global accountancy firm, where I for a while sat next to a company administrator - no, not Q - so have some familiarity with how these processes work in general terms. 

My analysis: is DCFC has VERY large debts.  DCFC has virtually no tangible assets.  Those we do have are players (if very few!).  On liquidation, unlike with other firms in most normal industries, those assets can leave for free on liquidation - so valueless to a liquidator.  We have considerable brand value (30k matchday attendees), all those here etc etc.  That brand value dies on liquidation, if EFL does not allow re-entry at L2.  Unlike with most businesses, the name cannot simply be sold as a way to pay creditors.

There is an old maxim: if I owe the bank £10,000, I have a problem; If I owe the bank a £1billion, the bank has a problem. That applies here.  On liquidation, the creditors get nothing.  Think about it, the players have no value and we don't own the ground.  We are left with paying £100m or whatever it is from old replica kits from the Superstore.

Ashley knows this, too.  As do all the buyers.  The reality is someone needs to be screwed here.  Liquidation screws everyone, but the admins need to extract as much as they can.  And so along strides a wonderful American who will generously pay a nice amount to said creditors for a L1 club.  No points deduction.  Keep Rooney.  40 new players.  He might as well throw Bale in to the mix as well, and consider putting a bit in for Messi.  It feels - not saying it is - a little too good to be true.  He is offering to be the one financially screwed for the greater good of everyone else.  And on cue the money doesn't turn up... makes you wonder.

What, in my opinion, this club has needed since January is to have the real crunch liquidation point - the club will liquidate on x date without x monies.  At the moment, creditors are thinking "I can get a 'good' deal from some naive mug" and are not considering the real haircut they are going to need to take to get some monies back, maybe 5 or 10p in the pound.  Once a potential vulture owner decides to accept the points deduction, why offer the creditors any less than a completely derisory offer (you get them to their lowest point before they refuse on principle)?  The points deduction will be the same.

This is Ashley's strategy (and probably everyone else bar CK).  He is planning to screw the creditors.  But this only works if you are prepared to hold out to the very very very last minute; and you can act fast to prevent the reapers axe actually coming down. 

The idea he will take CK's terms like-for-like is for the birds.      

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

Top post. read like an email from one of the big 4, detailed, punctuation, spelling, grammar, the lot. 

Exec summary, still in the shyte, getting close to wire, MA is a tight hard barsteward he aint gonna cough up lots