The Administration Thread

[Jimbo Ram]

20 minutes ago, StarterForTen said:

I often compare Derby with Southampton. The two cities are of similar size, so are each club's stadia, both have good training/academy provision and both draw support from a region.

For clubs of that size and marketing reach, I would say Southampton are towards the top of the performance expectation curve and Derby towards (or even at?) the bottom.

Southampton have recently changed their majority owner in a deal that values the club at around £220m. I don't think it is unfair to suggest that had Derby been in Southampton's position, a similar valuation would be expected for the Rams. Equally, I think it fair to suggest that going beyond that level (while not impossible) would be a stretch. In other words, 'becoming Southampton' is not an unreasonable ceiling of expectation for any potential owner to work to.

So, if a new owner were to acquire a 'reset' DCFC - including the freehold of the stadium and long leases on Moor Farm - for an overall outlay of sub £50m it could be argued that there is considerable investment headroom before the 'project cost' becomes untenable. An acquisitions expert like Mike Ashley will be aware of this and would be looking to reposition the 'DCFC business' to the Southampton FC level through justifiable investment inputs. Even investing £150m in the project would still offer good value... IF successful.

Of course, that is a big 'IF' attached to this thinking! The investment has to work!! As Mel has shown us so conclusively, investing £150m in no way guarantees the transition I have outlined.

But the entrepreneurs associated with a potential takeover will ALWAYS believe they can do it better than the person before and believe 100% that the road to becoming Southampton will be successfully travelled.

Which is why I have always believed a takeover will happen because, as @Jimbo Ramhas said, buying DCFC right now is a bargain!

Agree about the comparison with the Saints.....be great in a few years to get back to where they are currently....

[angieram]

 

[Animal is a Ram]

I suspect they may be blowing into the wind with this one - but credit to them for trying.

 

EDIT - Beaten to it by @angieram 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Animal is a Ram

[i-Ram]

13 minutes ago, TheresOnlyWanChope said:

I think a lot of the midlands teams are comparable. Southampton seems to be more isolated and I guess can have a wider reach in taking very young players through their academy system. Lots of clubs in Derby’s area. 
Southampton seem to produce some very good players but can never hold on to them so they’re unlikely to do ever threaten the elite in the Prem in the near future. 

They only have a 180 degree reach. The other half is full of fish.

[StarterForTen]

7 minutes ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

And any investor looking at DCFC will likely also look at other championship and maybe league 1 clubs and think there's a similar potential with fewer issues to resolve.

You are absolutely correct on this, but there may be fewer 'candidate clubs' than you imagine.

Take Hull City for example, the cost of that acquisition (including debt) by the new owners is circa £55m-£60m - and they do not own their own ground of course.

If an investor wants to have a crack at football club ownership - and have the bottle to wade through the current stench we are in - DCFC is still an attractive option.

Mitigating risk is always on the agenda, and that means minimising initial exposure - hence the dancing currently underway.

[RadioactiveWaste]

2 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

They only have a 180 degree reach. The other half is full of fish.

And half of what's land has Portsmouth to contend with.

[TheSlate]

9 minutes ago, angieram said:

 

All well and good if arbitration is actually the route travelled. 

[i-Ram]

1 minute ago, TheSlate said:

All well and good if arbitration is actually the route travelled. 

The letter is fine. You can’t expect a lengthy letter covering the whole range of possible remedies. You don’t need to slate everything.

[RadioactiveWaste]

1 minute ago, StarterForTen said:

You are absolutely correct on this, but there may be fewer 'candidate clubs' than you imagine.

Take Hull City for example, the cost of that acquisition (including debt) by the new owners is circa £55m-£60m - and they do not own their own ground of course.

If an investor wants to have a crack at football club ownership - and have the bottle to wade through the current stench we are in - DCFC is still an attractive option.

Mitigating risk is always on the agenda, and that means minimising initial exposure - hence the dancing currently underway.

True. I think my point is we're not the only way to buy an EFL club and all our bidders/investors know that if they don't do a deal for Derby County they could still buy a football club, possibly in a far more straightforward deal.

My worries are more on the issues and deal making and inevitable brinkmanship conspiring to scupper a rescue than the fundamental viability of DCFC post insovancy.

 

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

26 minutes ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

By the same token, both wolves and Leicester have come from basket case to middling premier League clubs in the Midlands.

We're not competing regionally with much bigger clubs (although granted some are much better positioned)

A lot of similar clubs competing against each other in the midlands. Wolves and Leicester have spent a fair bit though and spent it well. Leicester’s recruitment has been excellent. They tapped into the European market and found some bargains.  

[Curtains]

So as I first thought it’s initially EFL arbitration jurisdiction as must be the purpose of the Rams Trust letter 

https://www.efl.com/-more/governance/efl-rules--regulations/efl-regulations/section-9--arbitration/

It’s not clear which way that will go but presumably if we fail it’s goes to Civil Court .

This is a very worrying route to take IMO

Edited February 1, 2022 by Curtains
Reposted link

[mice_elf]

36 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

They only have a 180 degree reach. The other half is full of fish.

They did get their best ever Player from Guernsey, which is near enough Due South of So'ton, so that gives 'em a 360 degree reach by my reckoning..........................................................................................................................................................Matt Le Tissier

[PistoldPete]

43 minutes ago, angieram said:

 

Isn’t there something happening this week? 

hosking says that as q are court appointed practitioners they have first dibs at getting court or arbitration dates .

[TomG]

46 minutes ago, angieram said:

 

No harm in asking the EFL who Steve Gibson has chosen for the arbitration panel I suppose!

[StarterForTen]

45 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

They only have a 180 degree reach. The other half is full of fish.

There's always....

[Elwood P Dowd]

11 minutes ago, Curtains said:

So as I first thought it’s initially EFL arbitration jurisdiction as must be the purpose of the Rams Trust letter 

https://www.efl.com/-more/governance/efl-rules--regulations/efl-regulations/section-9--arbitration/

It’s not clear which way that will go but presumably if we fail it’s goes to Civil Court .

This is a very worrying route to take IMO

We do need some clarity about the Arbitration process we dont want the Boro\WW issue to be subject to one of the EFLs Kangaroo courts

[Ghost of Clough]

36 minutes ago, rammieib said:

I actually think circa £48M to own a club, press the reset button, own a stadium (and a training ground?), have Wayne Rooney as your manager, inherit a Class 1 academy is very good value. The 'potential' with the size of fan base and operating infrastructure is also very good in my opinion.

One of the red herrings in the room though.... we are still circa £1.5-£1.75m a month wage bill (I hope this includes the complete DCFC payroll), £5-7m for running the academy (I'm sure some costs are here are duplicated), running cost of a stadium and training ground and I imagine a further £5m in day to day expenses for none football purchases made. So all in, that is costs of £30 Million per annum.

Wage bill in Sep-Nov was £1.1m per month. I'll be amazed if that's shot up to what you claim after selling players who contributed £150k towards that total and not signing anyone.

Academy expenditure was £5m, but I imagine that has been streamlined slightly.

Running costs in Sep-Nov were about £1.25m per month, so £15m per year. However, when you account for ST money, the funding from the EFL (TV, PL, etc...), that is down to about £3m

36 minutes ago, rammieib said:

Revenue wise - Circa £10m in TV payments, Circa £9m in gate receipts (Don't forget VAT folks!), maybe another £2-4m in commercial income, this still leaves an annual deficit of around £7 Million. 

You've missed off some significant income streams.

17/18
Match receipts - £9.1m
TV - £8.1m
Commercial - £4m
Sponsorship - £5m
Other - £3.25m

Are you telling me sponsorship under Rowett hasn't increased considering we've had, Lampard, Cocu and now Rooney(!!!) as manager and all of the coverage in the news?
I imagine RamsTV brings in a bit more moeny than it did in 17/18 too.

36 minutes ago, rammieib said:

All of this is before we even think about paying money for players (or selling players for money).

So any new owner who I think inherits a really good club, is also being asked to put £7m down each year to subsidise the losses. This is only really recoupled when the promise land is reached, and can you reach the promise land without spending on better players and then you reach the inevitable catch-22 that Morris fell into and shamefully, ran away from.

Obviously Quantama will be asking potential new owners to ensure they have the funds to run us for minimum 2 years I think they requested. So the asking price in reality just goes from £48m (£28m with no stadium) plus £14m to £62m. So it is now starting to become a little more expensive....

You really want an owner in my eyes with £200m plus. Not to throw money at it but to in essence provide me with confidence behind the risks of owning us.

You've overestimated our expenditure and under estimated our expenses (under normal conditions). Breakeven over an entire season (give or take).

[Curtains]

2 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

Isn’t there something happening this week? 

hosking says that as q are court appointed practitioners they have first dibs at getting court or arbitration dates .

No way mate it’s an EFL arbitration process 

[Curtains]

1 minute ago, Elwood P Dowd said:

We do need some clarity about the Arbitration process we dont want the Boro\WW issue to be subject to one of the EFLs Kangaroo courts

That’s what it might be. 
Reminds me of all the other things the EFL have won or overturned against Derby and MM 

[StarterForTen]

2 minutes ago, Curtains said:

That’s what it might be. 
Reminds me of all the other things the EFL have won or overturned against Derby and MM 

If truly independent, just imagine if the Panel return a decision that suggests the grievances are due to EFL process rather than Club misdemeanour?