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Relegation rivals watch


Bris Vegas

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3 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I know it’s stating the obvious but they don’t even need to do that. Of course, it won’t be (or shouldn’t be) in their minds that it’s OK if we close the gap by much. If we’re within 2 or 3 points of them going into the final three games of the season then I would imagine they’ll be getting very nervous. I think our last three games look ever slightly easier with two home games compared to their one which is against West Brom.

Who are now in freefall?

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9 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I know it’s stating the obvious but they don’t even need to do that. Of course, it won’t be (or shouldn’t be) in their minds that it’s OK if we close the gap by much. If we’re within 2 or 3 points of them going into the final three games of the season then I would imagine they’ll be getting very nervous. I think our last three games look ever slightly easier with two home games compared to their one which is against West Brom.

To avoid being criticised as being negative again I purposely stated that Reading only have to match our results as they could in fact better ours and the gap becomes larger and the task harder. 

I did make a point last week saying I couldn't believe that they'd lose another 8 games on trot which yesterdays result totally supported. 

Edited by Tyler Durden
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2 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

To avoid being criticised as being negative again I purposely stated that Reading only have to match out results as they could in fact better ours and the gap becomes larger and the task harder. 

I did make a point last week saying I couldn't believe that they'd lose another 8 games on trot which yesterdays result totally vilified. 

Ridsdale's Preston not a total surprise, will see what they do in their next game.

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26 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I know it’s stating the obvious but they don’t even need to do that. Of course, it won’t be (or shouldn’t be) in their minds that it’s OK if we close the gap by much. If we’re within 2 or 3 points of them going into the final three games of the season then I would imagine they’ll be getting very nervous. I think our last three games look ever slightly easier with two home games compared to their one which is against West Brom.

Forget final 3 games. I'd be happy to be within 3 points of them going into the final game, which means 13 games to only gain 2 points on them
We're at HOME to Cardiff who'll be on their jollies by then.
They're AWAY at Luton, who'll probably be hoping to sneak into the playoffs.

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34 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

To avoid being criticised as being negative again I purposely stated that Reading only have to match our results as they could in fact better ours and the gap becomes larger and the task harder. 

 

I could only get one in black-white and grey

image.png.a7efd3a031f622aff52b5f6bc8a6ae1a.pngThis is her when in colourimage.png.3ae2c3b7b438debaf98f9f9ffb44bd09.png

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2 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Currently we are 5 points behind with a better GD. So I make it that we have to gain a point more than them every 3 games ??

That’s a great way of looking at it. Break the season into 3 game chunks. Even if we lose when they win, as long as those results are reversed the next week, we’re back where we were, and when they lose one, if we draw, we’ve made up our point over those 3 games. 

It means we don’t have to panic if we lose one when they win, and we fall another 3 pts behind. Over any 3 game period, we’ve still got a chance to make that back up, and still get the extra point we need. 

if we win when they lose, we’ve made 3pts up. We could go the next 8 games without making up a single point. 

min fact, based on the idea of only needing to be within 3 pts come the last game of te season, we only need to do that once over the next 14 games, win one game while they lose one. Then match their results and win on the last day. Easy peasy. 

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2 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

Unless my maths is wrong which it normally is then we have 7 fixtures left to play in April and May......if we're 6 points adrift by the start of those then that's still a helluva tough ask to make up those points over those number of games left given that "all" Reading need to do is match our results

If my maths is correct that’s 21 points. 
 

TBH, right now I’d snap your hand off right now if I was offered to be 3 points adrift with one game to go

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6 minutes ago, Bald Eagle's Barmy Army said:

If my maths is correct that’s 21 points. 
 

TBH, right now I’d snap your hand off right now if I was offered to be 3 points adrift with one game to go

I don’t know. I’d like to be slightly more comfortable than that, and I think I we can be. I can’t stand even thinking about how stressful that day would be. Worse than last season (when frankly we barely deserved to stay up, so I was fairly resigned to it), worse than the play off defeats. To have worked so hard for so long and got so close on the last day, if it was ripped away from us then, I couldn’t bare it.

so if we could be 4pts ahead on the last day, I’d be a lot happier.

(until the efl inevitably come along and give reading their 6pts back). 

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52 minutes ago, scout's dad said:

Is that Red Dawn?

No, It was my latest date, I met her in a disco and I took a photo only got the negative, The colour one is when we 1st met in daylight, Her shock at seeing me made her spit her 2 front teeth out, Ahhh memories aye ?

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20 hours ago, JfR said:

Funnily enough, this is the third time it's happened. He managed him on loan at Notts County and for a spell at Blackpool as well. Seeing as the Blackpool spell saw the club relegated while the Notts spell saw them lose 9 games in a row before Ince Sr.'s sacking, I'm hoping it's rule of three rather than third time's the charm.

Paul Ince's record being a manager as an of average of 41.2% win ratio, but his last spell at Blackpool which lasted 42 games only produced 28.6% win ratio. So with 14 matches to play, the later % ratio means they could win 4 more games and draw 4, losing the other 6. Giving them a 42 points at the end of the season. Meaning the Rams would have to find 21 points out of their 14 matches. We need 6 wins and 3 draws and only 5 defeats. Possible winnable games= Millwall (H), Barnsley (H), Coventry (H), Preston (H), Bristol (H), Cardiff (H), Cardiff (A), Swansea (A) and Blackpool (A). Obviously won't win all of these, could be some draws or even defeats. Games where we will probably get beat= Luton (A), Bournemouth (A), Blackburn (A), QPR (A) and Fulham (H), and again we might pull out a draw or maybe a win.

Reading have 3 winnable games in their next 3 fixtures, Birmingham (H), Blackpool (A) and Millwall (H). But their following 3 games could bring them no points, Forest (A), Bournemouth (A) and Blackburn (H). It could take us until April before we find the Rams above Reading and thats when the pressure will be on our players to keep up the momentum.

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4 hours ago, Tyler Durden said:

To avoid being criticised as being negative again I purposely stated that Reading only have to match our results as they could in fact better ours and the gap becomes larger and the task harder. 

I did make a point last week saying I couldn't believe that they'd lose another 8 games on trot which yesterdays result totally supported. 

I have a feeling that Reading might stage a revival. They have some good players who aren’t performing. That could change. We just have to keep chasing them and keep the pressure up. I am, in a sense more interested in how Hull shape up over the next 4/5 games. They didn’t look good as a unit. If we win our game in hand then we are 10 points behind them with 42 points up for grabs .. can we perform 25% better than Hull over the remaining fixtures ? I think it is a possible scenario. Birmingham and Cardiff are maybe a touch to far ahead but they are leaky at the back. It’s a mountain, but we’ve already climbed one. We were at minus points remember. I’d love to see a graph of our points/time/positional curve compared to the others 

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46 minutes ago, jono said:

I have a feeling that Reading might stage a revival. They have some good players who aren’t performing. That could change. We just have to keep chasing them and keep the pressure up. I am, in a sense more interested in how Hull shape up over the next 4/5 games. They didn’t look good as a unit. If we win our game in hand then we are 10 points behind them with 42 points up for grabs .. can we perform 25% better than Hull over the remaining fixtures ? I think it is a possible scenario. Birmingham and Cardiff are maybe a touch to far ahead but they are leaky at the back. It’s a mountain, but we’ve already climbed one. We were at minus points remember. I’d love to see a graph of our points/time/positional curve compared to the others 

Yep. After a mini revival of three wins on the bounce, Hull haven't won in five and have only picked up 2 out of a possible 15. Although they have had a tough run of games. Anything can still happen but it's a big gap to make up on anyone other than Reading.

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50 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Yep. After a mini revival of three wins on the bounce, Hull haven't won in five and have only picked up 2 out of a possible 15. Although they have had a tough run of games. Anything can still happen but it's a big gap to make up on anyone other than Reading.

I’m also thinking that we have to play Cardiff twice .. it’s a game changer if we win both of those. So many permutations. We do have it all to do, we need the football gods with us, Lady Luck and the huge spirit of this inspiring group of players. Thing is … 10 games ago we were dead in the water … right now we are in the mix with 30,000 turning up and believing we can do it. It counts, it really does.
 

Ages back I watched a Rooney interview after his overhead kick, when he scored against City to win the Manchester Derby .. he said when you do that stuff you visualise it and your body responds. We are doing that right now and it’s paying off. 

Edited by jono
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2 minutes ago, jono said:

I’m also thinking that we have to play Cardiff twice .. it’s a game changer if we win both of those. So many permutations. We do have it all to do, we need the football gods with us, Lady Luck and the huge spirit of this inspiring group of players. Thing is … 10 games ago we were dead in the water … right now we are in the mix with 30,000 turning up and believing we can do it. It counts, it really does.
 

Ages back I watched a Rooney interview after his overhead kick, when he scored against City to win the Manchester Derby .. he said when you do that stuff you visualise it and your body responds. We are doing that right now and it’s paying off. 

Glad he taught Bielik that mindset!

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