Coronavirus

[Eddie]

57 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

There is something very dodgy with all these stats:

Apparently R is still nigh on one. Each person infects one so numbers stay the same.

YET a month ago 1 in 1000 people had the virus, now its one in 1700 (ONS figures). Roughly speaking 10 persons have infected 6. That's not 1. 

Not really. There are confidence limits applied - hence why they say something like 'between 0.7 and 0.9'- and R0 (its proper term) varies with time and conditions. You could get to a stage where there is only 1 person affected, then a week later there are two people with the disease, and suddenly, with confidence, you can say that R = 2. There is one fundamental drawback - we aren't testing everyone, so at best it's an estimate. People become ill, they get tested, some test positive. The more tests you do in the wider population, the more asymptomatic cases you will detect.

At the moment, we are still getting around 1500 new cases and around 200 deaths every day - it is coming down, but painfully slowly. The test and trace system will help (at some indeterminate time in the future).

The Wikipedia page to R0 is very good...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

[alexxxxx]

45 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

You’re a cheery soul with your last few posts. Go and open a bottle of beer or something.

Pretty depressing reading you're right but at least it's going down!

[Sith Happens]

On 30/05/2020 at 13:40, Paul71 said:

sadly the coronavirus has had a severe impact in the business I work in. many of us were told this week that we are now at risk of redundancy and will be entering a consultation period shortly.

sad days.

Officially in consultation now,  the good thing in a way is our team of 4 will only lose 1 person (only ☹) , we are to enter a selection process,  as I have been there the shortest amount of time obviously concerned decisions may be made on a financial basis as I will be the cheapest to get rid of. 

Got to admit my previous problems with stress and anxiety are surfacing, half the team are furloughed and I am struggling to cope with the extra workload because of this,  many a sleepless night has been had of late.

I can't even imagine celebrating if I keep my job as I am close with all my colleagues, what a poo time.

 

[rynny]

11 minutes ago, Paul71 said:

Officially in consultation now,  the good thing in a way is our team of 4 will only lose 1 person (only ☹) , we are to enter a selection process,  as I have been there the shortest amount of time obviously concerned decisions may be made on a financial basis as I will be the cheapest to get rid of. 

Got to admit my previous problems with stress and anxiety are surfacing, half the team are furloughed and I am struggling to cope with the extra workload because of this,  many a sleepless night has been had of late.

I can't even imagine celebrating if I keep my job as I am close with all my colleagues, what a poo time.

 

Sorry to hear that Paul. 

[Rev]

2 hours ago, Paul71 said:

Officially in consultation now,  the good thing in a way is our team of 4 will only lose 1 person (only ☹) , we are to enter a selection process,  as I have been there the shortest amount of time obviously concerned decisions may be made on a financial basis as I will be the cheapest to get rid of. 

Got to admit my previous problems with stress and anxiety are surfacing, half the team are furloughed and I am struggling to cope with the extra workload because of this,  many a sleepless night has been had of late.

I can't even imagine celebrating if I keep my job as I am close with all my colleagues, what a poo time.

 

Sorry to hear that Paul, it's a shame people will lose jobs that were viable 3 months ago, and will possibly be viable again in 9 months time. 

I'd imagine it's very tough having to compete against people you like to keep your job.

Maybe the four of you could come together and offer a counter proposal, like a temporary pay cut for a period of time that may allow you all to be kept on, or a job share arrangement?

However things pan out, take care of yourself and put your health needs first, hopefully not being furloughed will give you an advantage if someone has to go.

 

[Sith Happens]

2 hours ago, reverendo de duivel said:

Sorry to hear that Paul, it's a shame people will lose jobs that were viable 3 months ago, and will possibly be viable again in 9 months time. 

I'd imagine it's very tough having to compete against people you like to keep your job.

Maybe the four of you could come together and offer a counter proposal, like a temporary pay cut for a period of time that may allow you all to be kept on, or a job share arrangement?

However things pan out, take care of yourself and put your health needs first, hopefully not being furloughed will give you an advantage if someone has to go.

 

Thanks, the counter proposal is certainly an interesting one. One I might give some thought to, my view would be if the business considers that 1 less person is enough then 4 people doing 4 days a week is not far off the same hours as 3 doing 5 days a week. My gut feeling is it would be considered too complex but thats the point of consultation to examine all possibilities, thanks for that anyway though.

There are many other teams impacted too, but as you say it could be possible there will be a need for people again a few months down the line. I certainly wouldn't rule that out, if we had a job share in place then it also is an advantage for the business as potentially hours can be increased without the need for costly recruitment.

 

[rammieib]

7 hours ago, Paul71 said:

Thanks, the counter proposal is certainly an interesting one. One I might give some thought to, my view would be if the business considers that 1 less person is enough then 4 people doing 4 days a week is not far off the same hours as 3 doing 5 days a week. My gut feeling is it would be considered too complex but thats the point of consultation to examine all possibilities, thanks for that anyway though.

There are many other teams impacted too, but as you say it could be possible there will be a need for people again a few months down the line. I certainly wouldn't rule that out, if we had a job share in place then it also is an advantage for the business as potentially hours can be increased without the need for costly recruitment.

 

Paul, in the months we are in now and the next few months, we are all spending less and everyone working 80% of the week keeps the skillset in the  business. Ultimately though, you all want to medium to long term be on 100% so it's not easy.

Good luck.

[rammieib]

On the Prem and EFL tests which take place every 3-4 days, anyone notice the same person has not as far as I know been positive twice unless due to quarantine they have waited 7 days before their next test.

Also, with the 30 to 40 in total who have tested positive, again as far as we know all have been asymptomatic.

[mozza]

 

When working for a brilliant double glazing company in Burton early 2000's, we also shared the work around between teams to avoid lay offs. Worked a treat for most teams and kept us all ticking over til better times returned. Put it to em Paul,  good luck, all the best. 

[Mucker1884]

18 hours ago, Paul71 said:

Officially in consultation now,  the good thing in a way is our team of 4 will only lose 1 person (only ☹) , we are to enter a selection process,  as I have been there the shortest amount of time obviously concerned decisions may be made on a financial basis as I will be the cheapest to get rid of. 

Got to admit my previous problems with stress and anxiety are surfacing, half the team are furloughed and I am struggling to cope with the extra workload because of this,  many a sleepless night has been had of late.

I can't even imagine celebrating if I keep my job as I am close with all my colleagues, what a poo time.

 

Sorry to hear that, buddy, and wish you all the best.
Unless you've already spoken to the others in your team, and know otherwise, maybe one of them (Longest serving/eldest?) would be happy to volunteer?  Obviously that would mean a bigger pay-off from your employer, but many places seem to offer the voluntary route first, from what little I hear on the subject?

The shared reduction seems an excellent shout though, so maybe you can all make that work?

Anyway... fingers crossed for you.   ?

[angieram]

7 hours ago, rammieib said:

On the Prem and EFL tests which take place every 3-4 days, anyone notice the same person has not as far as I know been positive twice unless due to quarantine they have waited 7 days before their next test.

Also, with the 30 to 40 in total who have tested positive, again as far as we know all have been asymptomatic.

Yes, there is very little detail on the tests so it is hard to discern any kind of pattern. Are there clusters at certain clubs or are they spread around? 

Are these people subject to track and trace like the rest of the population? 

I know they aren't saints but with the season close to starting you would expect them to be fairly compliant with all the rules so where are these seemingly random positives coming from?

[rammieib]

5 minutes ago, angieram said:

Yes, there is very little detail on the tests so it is hard to discern any kind of pattern. Are there clusters at certain clubs or are they spread around? 

Are these people subject to track and trace like the rest of the population? 

I know they aren't saints but with the season close to starting you would expect them to be fairly compliant with all the rules so where are these seemingly random positives coming from?

The Norwich City statement actually states the player will isolate for 7 days before his next test so maybe everyone has recovered in the 7 day window.

As for track and trace, if the rules are 15 minutes at 2 metres then I imagine no one will have been in this close proximity for this duration but likewise, if you’re tested every three days or so for me that’s even more safe.

[Gritstone Ram]

Anyone heard if there is any progress on a vaccine? There isn’t much news on the tinterweb but it looks like Oxford University is trialing one but the infections were too low in this country so they are trying Brazil. 

[Tamworthram]

51 minutes ago, Van Gritters said:

Anyone heard if there is any progress on a vaccine? There isn’t much news on the tinterweb but it looks like Oxford University is trialing one but the infections were too low in this country so they are trying Brazil. 

My brother in law is a research chemist (or something, I'm not exactly sure what his job title is) working at Canterbury Uni (he used to work for Pfizer) on the vaccine. He sent me an email on 8th June with some "exciting news" to say that three potential vaccines they're working on were looking good and had been sent for testing. No indication of potential timelines though.

[Gritstone Ram]

52 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

My brother in law is a research chemist (or something, I'm not exactly sure what his job title is) working at Canterbury Uni (he used to work for Pfizer) on the vaccine. He sent me an email on 8th June with some "exciting news" to say that three potential vaccines they're working on were looking good and had been sent for testing. No indication of potential timelines though.

I think it’s the key to getting back to some kind of normality.

[B4ev6is]

Well I think fans could well be in grounds in september but I feel by then everything more or less back to normal.

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

23 hours ago, Van Gritters said:

Anyone heard if there is any progress on a vaccine? There isn’t much news on the tinterweb but it looks like Oxford University is trialing one but the infections were too low in this country so they are trying Brazil. 

Saw on TV that AstraZeneca are in the lead for a vaccine ahead of the Americans and China. From what i recall they passed stage 1 and 2 and are about to enter stage 3 for mass testing. The company is taking a punt and start to mass produce so if it passes it can be rolled out very quickly. I think they mentionned autumn but the reporter said that many drug tests fail at stage 3 so fingers crossed i guess.

[A Ram for All Seasons]

1 hour ago, EtoileSportiveDeDerby said:

Saw on TV that AstraZeneca are in the lead for a vaccine ahead of the Americans and China. From what i recall they passed stage 1 and 2 and are about to enter stage 3 for mass testing. The company is taking a punt and start to mass produce so if it passes it can be rolled out very quickly. I think they mentionned autumn but the reporter said that many drug tests fail at stage 3 so fingers crossed i guess.

The German government has just invested €250 million in Curevac. That's the biotechnology company that Trump wanted to sign an exclusive deal with to supply vaccines to Americans only. He won't try that one again now the government has a large stake.

[Mucker1884]

2 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

Well I think fans could well be in grounds in september but I feel by then everything more or less back to normal.

Can we wait until October?  I have a holiday planned for September!

[Mucker1884]

As our own High Streets begin to bulge with lines of desperate shoppers, Beijing is now activating it's "Second Wave" restrictions.  "Lockdown 2 - The Virus strikes back"!