The Politics Thread 2019

[sunnyhill60]

5 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Of course murders have fallen since the Good Friday Agreement. But there's no reason to impose a hard border on Brexit, even in the event of a "no deal" Brexit. I've heard dozens of global customs experts say this. It's simply a total lack of political will on the part of the EU because they know if they weaponize it (in conjuction with Varadkar) Remainers in the UK will use this to bind the UK as closely as possible to the EU rather than have a vibrant dynamic economy on their doorstep, sucking all the growth out of a less agile EU.

Sadly you seem unaware of WTO rules, which will apply given no deal. The EU have to treat us like every other with which they have no trade deal. You will not find any  "soft" border with a non-member country. Even Switzerland which is in the Schengen area and has various EU deals has a border which needs checks for commercial traffic and consequent delays.

[Van der MoodHoover]

8 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Of course murders have fallen since the Good Friday Agreement. But there's no reason to impose a hard border on Brexit, even in the event of a "no deal" Brexit. I've heard dozens of global customs experts say this. It's simply a total lack of political will on the part of the EU because they know if they weaponize it (in conjuction with Varadkar) Remainers in the UK will use this to bind the UK as closely as possible to the EU rather than have a vibrant dynamic economy on their doorstep, sucking all the growth out of a less agile EU.

Fro what I hear and read it's the exact opposite.  The EU are demonstrating a steely determination to preserve the singularity of the single market and free trade in all circumstances. 

Boris and co have already signalled the flexibility to diverge standards over time. Which is an obvious desire else why else do Brexit? 

Where that leads to nobody knows - we might find ourselves happy enough with practices like chlorine washed chicken. The EU then - in THOSE circumstances simply cannot allow free movement of those goods across a land border. It's completely illogical and suicidal of them.

And if you have this idea of custom's centres 10 miles from the border then there hasn't been any credible explanation of how to prevent smuggling across the many border crossing points.

All that you get is something something. ...our European friends need to be flexible. ...something. ..GPS. 

So what do you do? Yet to hear or see any customs experts producing hard evidence of a solution for all goods  (and if all goods are not included how do you keep out the ones that aren't )?

I have no answers but I see the problem clearly enough.

[Stive Pesley]

Surely not just goods either? Free movement of people in the EU means that people can get to Northern Ireland easily, simply by travelling via Eire.
All the hand-wringing about immigration from the proud British Brexit-y patriots doesn’t seem to extend to the NI bit of the UK. Weird huh?

[Eddie]

Clever wordsmithery from Boris...

"We won't have a border between Northern Ireland and the RoI, and we won't have a border between Northern Ireland and the island of Great Britain either" has now become "We will have both", according to the Telegraph.

[Highgate]

12 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Of course murders have fallen since the Good Friday Agreement. But there's no reason to impose a hard border on Brexit, even in the event of a "no deal" Brexit. I've heard dozens of global customs experts say this. It's simply a total lack of political will on the part of the EU because they know if they weaponize it (in conjuction with Varadkar) Remainers in the UK will use this to bind the UK as closely as possible to the EU rather than have a vibrant dynamic economy on their doorstep, sucking all the growth out of a less agile EU.

I wish these guys would speak up make their solutions widely known.  Why are they keeping it to themselves? There would be widespread relief in Ireland (North and South) if there are in fact workable solutions to this conundrum, that don't involve a hard border in the event of a no-deal Brexit.  I've not heard one reasonable suggestion yet.  Quite the contrary.

There is no point really in singling out Varadkar, the whole Irish parliament is pretty much on the same page on this issue.  Which is an unusual state of affairs. I think it's inaccurate and unfair to suggest he is somehow 'weaponizing' the Irish border. I'd criticize him on a multitude of issues but I think his concern for the GFA is sincere.  It is, after all, his duty to protect and fulfill Ireland's commitments to the GFA.  It's also Boris Johnson's duty to fulfill the UK's commitment to it, but somehow I get the feeling that's not high on his agenda. 

 

[maxjam]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/01/man-40s-first-diagnosed-brexit-psychosis/

Is that anyone on here?  Come on, own up ?

[Wolfie]

What I can't get my head round (except the at I can, and it has been a lie) is what exactly have we been negotiating with the EU all these past weeks?.

The "Deal" is going to be TM's deal with the Backstop replaced by........something. If the EU are still in the dark as to what this something is, then WTF?

It's just an obvious question that I've never seen asked by media or parliament and I can't understand why.

[GboroRam]

3 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

What I can't get my head round (except the at I can, and it has been a lie) is what exactly have we been negotiating with the EU all these past weeks?.

The "Deal" is going to be TM's deal with the Backstop replaced by........something. If the EU are still in the dark as to what this something is, then WTF?

It's just an obvious question that I've never seen asked by media or parliament and I can't understand why.

If you look more closely, there were no negotiations. All statements from the EU talked about "discussions". Which sounds more like we sent someone to chat poo, and then went home. Nothing got negotiated. Of course the EU won't turn anyone away, but there were no intentions to find a solution from our side.

[Van der MoodHoover]

23 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

If you look more closely, there were no negotiations. All statements from the EU talked about "discussions". Which sounds more like we sent someone to chat poo, and then went home. Nothing got negotiated. Of course the EU won't turn anyone away, but there were no intentions to find a solution from our side.

All of which culminated in the sending of the "non-papers". On paper of course.....?

[1of4]

Isn't one of the mantras constantly recited by brextiteers, take back control of our borders.

By allowing unguarded movement of peope into NI from Eire after brexit . It appears that  we are trying to pass the responsibility of policing the border and thus the security of our country to Eire and the EU

[cheron85]

I think this could all be solved by a thought I've had for years - Make Northern Ireland an independent sovereign nation

Essentially my thought is when you can't find a solution both sides will be happy with - The only fair thing to do is make both sides equally unhappy - It suits neither sides ambitions to do this and therefore seems like the perfect solution to me

Then the newly independent NI can negotiate their own deal with the EU about a border - In fact they voted to Remain in the referendum so maybe the new nation gets to stay in the EU - And then we don't have the problem of a land border anywhere and we can drift off into the North Sea happily falling apart when the rest of world remembers we're a tiny tinpot little nation who's only real power dried up 100 years ago with the end of the empire and fully embrace being less significant than Belgium...

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, Van Wolfie said:

The "Deal" is going to be TM's deal with the Backstop replaced by........something.

But correct me if I'm wrong here - wasn't it supposed to be "the worst deal in history" - and not just because of the backstop?

https://brexitcentral.com/reminder-theresa-mays-deal-unacceptable/

And for balance - the Labour Party reasons

https://labour.org.uk/issues/six-reasons-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-bad-britain/

 

So if the "something" that replaces the backstop is something awful and doesn't change any of the rest of the WA - then it's surely the worst of all worlds?

[AndyinLiverpool]

28 minutes ago, cheron85 said:

I think this could all be solved by a thought I've had for years - Make Northern Ireland an independent sovereign nation

Essentially my thought is when you can't find a solution both sides will be happy with - The only fair thing to do is make both sides equally unhappy - It suits neither sides ambitions to do this and therefore seems like the perfect solution to me

Then the newly independent NI can negotiate their own deal with the EU about a border - In fact they voted to Remain in the referendum so maybe the new nation gets to stay in the EU - And then we don't have the problem of a land border anywhere and we can drift off into the North Sea happily falling apart when the rest of world remembers we're a tiny tinpot little nation who's only real power dried up 100 years ago with the end of the empire and fully embrace being less significant than Belgium...

Like King Solomon cutting the baby in half.

See who really wants to find a solution.

[Carl Sagan]

3 hours ago, SchtivePesley said:

Surely not just goods either? Free movement of people in the EU means that people can get to Northern Ireland easily, simply by travelling via Eire.
All the hand-wringing about immigration from the proud British Brexit-y patriots doesn’t seem to extend to the NI bit of the UK. Weird huh?

This totally misunderstands how a modern immigration system works. The world has largely had visa-free travel for decades. I count about 40 countries I've been to for work or play in the last decade, and only one of those (India) required a visa. Not Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, America, Canada, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, Norway, Iceland etc as well as the EU countries. 

The world has free movement for holidays and short work trips. If you're trying to work permanently in a country then this is policed by your employer. Not at any border. 

The common travel area between UK and Ireland has existed happily since 1923 and deal or no deal will easily continue to exist.

[Stive Pesley]

2 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

This totally misunderstands how a modern immigration system works. The world has largely had visa-free travel for decades. I count about 40 countries I've been to for work or play in the last decade, and only one of those (India) required a visa. Not Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, America, Canada, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, Norway, Iceland etc as well as the EU countries. 

The world has free movement for holidays and short work trips. If you're trying to work permanently in a country then this is policed by your employer. Not at any border. 

The common travel area between UK and Ireland has existed happily since 1923 and deal or no deal will easily continue to exist.

Tell it to Priti Patel who said yesterday that we would end freedom of movement - much to the excitement of the Brexiteers (who definitely aren't xenophobic)

[Van der MoodHoover]

2 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

This totally misunderstands how a modern immigration system works. The world has largely had visa-free travel for decades. I count about 40 countries I've been to for work or play in the last decade, and only one of those (India) required a visa. Not Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, America, Canada, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, Norway, Iceland etc as well as the EU countries. 

The world has free movement for holidays and short work trips. If you're trying to work permanently in a country then this is policed by your employer. Not at any border. 

The common travel area between UK and Ireland has existed happily since 1923 and deal or no deal will easily continue to exist.

that is true - was put in place as a condition of independence for the RoI I think so of itself is not affected. But it only applies to Irish citizens - who also have currently got the right to a)hold a UK passport and b) vote in UK elections I think.

The snags come because if RoI maintains free movement as a member of the EU, but we must have control of our borders, we will need a mechanism to spot non_RoI citizens entering the UK.

ps I had to apply for an electronic visa to spend a week working in Canada this year. Easy to do (online), but its not strictly visa free. ?

[Wolfie]

23 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

But correct me if I'm wrong here - wasn't it supposed to be "the worst deal in history" - and not just because of the backstop?

https://brexitcentral.com/reminder-theresa-mays-deal-unacceptable/

And for balance - the Labour Party reasons

https://labour.org.uk/issues/six-reasons-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-bad-britain/

 

So if the "something" that replaces the backstop is something awful and doesn't change any of the rest of the WA - then it's surely the worst of all worlds?

So one side hates it because it isn't hard brexit and the other one because it isn't soft enough.

TM's deal was always going to be a compromise. Neither of the above sides liked it, so we are where we are now.

I suspect and hope that if the Backstop can be sorted, then parliament will vote for the deal - including enough Labour MP's in Leave constituencies - even if JC is still against it.

[Stive Pesley]

3 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

I suspect and hope that if the Backstop can be sorted, then parliament will vote for the deal - including enough Labour MP's in Leave constituencies - even if JC is still against it.

Because nothing respects democracy more than a wishy washy compromise that no one likes or wants ?

 

[ketteringram]

I get the impression, that no matter how bad it was being a member of the EU (I'm not saying it's bad), or for example there was an even bigger leave vote in a possible second referendum, we can't ever actually leave, simply because no one can figure out how to do it. It's too difficult.

[WhiteHorseRam]

6 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

Because nothing respects democracy more than a wishy washy compromise that no one likes or wants ?

 

To an extent that's the definition of democracy … every five years democracy happens for each individual for about 5 seconds in a booth (a bit like a lot of Tory MPs sex lives) ….. after clear agendas/manifestos and consequences/costs/outcomes have been outlined by each party.

Still better than one country, one people, one leader merchants; or one factory making the left shoe while another 200 miles way another makes the right.