The Politics Thread 2019

[Highgate]

31 minutes ago, EtoileSportiveDeDerby said:

Very interesting especially as the Irish backstop seemed to be the deal breaker a few weeks ago. I am not convinced it is anymore, no deal Brexit seems to be the goal at all costs despite the rhetoric.

Churchill vs Bojo I wonder what future historians will have to say...

Depends on who you asked, Bengali historians will probably be 100%  behind Bojo !

[ariotofmyown]

3 hours ago, EtoileSportiveDeDerby said:

Been in France for the past 2 weeks to see family and friends, their political views range from very right to very left. One topic I enjoy in the Football section on this forum is "Views from the outside" so I thought i would post the same re. my experience and the questions I have been asked most about Brexit during my stay.

1) What is going on ? To which I just replied even god does not not know! 

2) He reminds me of Trump, is he the same ?

3) Is he just as mad ?

3) Why ?

4) When ? 

5) What do normal people think or want ?

6) Is it going to happen ?

Not a single person ever said I hope we are next to leave. We should do the same, it makes sense. Because there is very little reported on the news, a fraction of what there is in the UK, people here seem to be confused and not bothered that much it would seem. The environment gets a lot more press and air time. Only one person seemed to be aware of backstop being the main sticking point. The average Jean does not seem to be that bothered that trade with the UK might be a bit more tricky going forward. There seems to be a general feeling that it is a self made problem that should be sorted by the UK, not really the EU's fault. It certainly does not feel like popular demand/opinion would lead to politicians having to demand the EU to bend over backward to get a deal through.

Make what you want of it...

 

 

Well they would say that after we bailed them out the 2 World Wars we won. Our dads didn't die on their battlefields just so we couldn't leave a union that has prevented major wars since.

[AndyinLiverpool]

1 hour ago, Highgate said:

I'd tend to agree with all of that. 

I think that it's fair to say that Brexit is probably bigger news in Ireland than in the rest of the EU 27, given that we will so exposed to it's ramifications. People are worried about the effect it will have on our exports/imports to and from the UK (by far our largest trading partner) and the economy in general, and I think there is every reason to be worried. 

When the original referendum was proposed nobody really thought it would pass and people were shocked when it did.  People were also surprised that the GFA and the Irish border never seemed to get a mention until well after the referendum result. People genuinely didn't seem to understand why the UK would choose such a path. I think people here don't understand that the UK has quite a different relationship to Europe than Ireland does.  There is nearly zero appetite here to follow the UK out of the EU for example, even though it would obviously simplify a lot of things.

It's fair to say that, traditionally, Irish people are usually instinctively and reflexively 'anti-Tory' and Ireland always seems more comfortable when a Labour government sits in Westminster but I think many people here would be perfectly willing to help out the UK, if anybody knew how to help.  Given that the Brexit process is in a perpetual state of confusion and bitter division it's seems impossible to know what assistance would look like.  One thing is true though, no assistance would be offered that could threaten the GFA.  The Belfast Agreement is simply sacrosanct.  That's pretty much the one thing we all agree on over here and everything will be done to try to get the UK to honour it's commitment to it (although if EU doesn't back Ireland in that regard then our bargaining position is hopelessly weak). 

It would be very interesting to hear the views on Brexit from the other 25 nations.  Who's up next? ?

 

 

I also get the sense that talk of a united Ireland is more prevalent than previously. The DUP have played it all wrong and I think history will view them as unwitting catalysts to the eventual unity. 

[G STAR RAM]

6 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

Well they would say that after we bailed them out the 2 World Wars we won. Our dads didn't die on their battlefields just so we couldn't leave a union that has prevented major wars since.

The EU has prevented major wars since? 

I'm not sure if you're being serious or not here?

[BaaLocks]

58 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

The EU has prevented major wars since? 

I'm not sure if you're being serious or not here?

I don't want to speak on anyone's behalf but what I read was a suggestion that unity will always cause less conflict than division, for pretty bleeding obvious reasons (for example, the whole tone of the UK is clearly more fractious and divided now than it was pre referendum). However, my observation would be that the major reason we have avoided major wars in the last seventy years is not because of political institutions but because those who remembered what they actually bring were alive to caution us not to go down that path. Sadly, memory is not genetic and as that generation passes those that are left seem to want to blunder into the same mistakes as they did.

[bcnram]

13 hours ago, WharfedaleRam said:

If we get a GE soon, it’ll be like a new referendum. Vote Johnson and leave on 31st October with or without a deal. Vote Corbyn and goodness knows what we’ll get!

Err... misery and the country run by far left union leaders. 

[Wolfie]

12 hours ago, Montgolfier said:

Hmmm. Corbyn to blame? What about the ERG and the monacled moron?

A share of the blame, yes. If you'd read my post & the one I was replying to, it should be clear enough. Of course the ERG are to blame as well.

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, bcnram said:

Err... misery

Genuine question - in what way do you expect to live in misery should Corbyn become PM?

What do you think he will do that will make your life a misery?

[Stive Pesley]

Meanwhile - the Brexiteers have now pulled plans to release a "watered-down" version of the Yellowhammer No-Deal contingency plans

Quote

https://www.ft.com/content/c95b92ea-cd90-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f

"Although officials working on the rewrite said the paper had been deliberately “neutralised” it was still seen as too gloomy for publication to the general public."

At what point does it stop being "Project Fear"?

Or is everyone in favour of no deal fully aware that it will be horrendous and they don't care?

 

[Eddie]

Crystal ball time.

As I see it, what Labour and the other parties and 'Tory rebels' are going to do now is simply (if 'simply' is the right word)

1. Vote for a bill that stops an exit without a deal on October 31 (perhaps kicking the can down the road a bit further - this would require the EU to agree, of course).

2. Johnson will then immediately call a general election for October 14, before the bill has been ratified by the House of Lords. Of course, this is all part of Boris's plan, because as soon as he dissolves parliament, he would then change the date of the election to one after October 31, thus ensuring that the UK leaves the EU without a deal after all.

Corbyn et al must resist this temptation and vote against dissolving parliament. Johnson needs a 2/3 majority to call a general election.

[Stive Pesley]

5 minutes ago, Montgolfier said:

2. Johnson will then immediately call a general election for October 14, before the bill has been ratified by the House of Lords. Of course, this is all part of Boris's plan, because as soon as he dissolves parliament, he would then change the date of the election to one after October 31, thus ensuring that the UK leaves the EU without a deal after all.

If he does that then I guess we'd save money on rennovating Westminster (as it would get burned to the ground pretty quick I suspect)

 

[AndyinLiverpool]

5 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

If he does that then I guess we'd save money on rennovating Westminster (as it would get burned to the ground pretty quick I suspect)

 

By a 'Dutch communist' presumably

[Eddie]

4 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

If he does that then I guess we'd save money on rennovating Westminster (as it would get burned to the ground pretty quick I suspect)

 

Do you honestly put it past him? I don't.

Interesting that Johnson sees himself as a modern-day Churchill, and one of the Tory rebels who will most certainly vote against the Government is Nicholas Soames - a grandson of Sir Winston.

I wonder if the Tory party would dare to throw him out?

[AndyinLiverpool]

8 minutes ago, Montgolfier said:

Do you honestly put it past him? I don't.

Interesting that Johnson sees himself as a modern-day Churchill, and one of the Tory rebels who will most certainly vote against the Government is Nicholas Soames - a grandson of Sir Winston.

I wonder if the Tory party would dare to throw him out?

Johnson's fit of pique about deselecting MPs reminded me of this scene from the untouchables

A lot of hot air from someone who's losing the plot.

[GboroRam]

3 hours ago, bcnram said:

Err... misery and the country run by far left union leaders. 

Instead of the political paradise we've had for God knows how long? 

[Van der MoodHoover]

Did anyone else watch the Channel 4 brexit “debate” yesterday at 7.30pm?

thoroughly dispiriting.

 I put the d word in inverted commas as the entire exercise contained very little reasoned argument of the different perspectives on either side.

this is what we have become? The brexit side unprepared to acknowledge that there may be issues and simply shouting “get on with it”. The remain side quoting various random facts and there being no common ground visible on which an acceptable exit strategy could be built around.

somebody at one stage accused John Redwood of profiteering from fears of a no deal brexit through advice he had given in his investment consultancy work. No specifics. Redwood simply stated “that is a blatant lie” and moved on. Such is the quality of debate we have been reduced to.

dreadful really and I don’t know where it’s all going to end.

[AndyinLiverpool]

4 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Did anyone else watch the Channel 4 brexit “debate” yesterday at 7.30pm?

thoroughly dispiriting.

 I put the d word in inverted commas as the entire exercise contained very little reasoned argument of the different perspectives on either side.

this is what we have become? The brexit side unprepared to acknowledge that there may be issues and simply shouting “get on with it”. The remain side quoting various random facts and there being no common ground visible on which an acceptable exit strategy could be built around.

somebody at one stage accused John Redwood of profiteering from fears of a no deal brexit through advice he had given in his investment consultancy work. No specifics. Redwood simply stated “that is a blatant lie” and moved on. Such is the quality of debate we have been reduced to.

dreadful really and I don’t know where it’s all going to end.

The next step is a general election campaign so febrile and nasty that we will scarcely be able to call ourselves civilised.

[Highgate]

12 hours ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

I also get the sense that talk of a united Ireland is more prevalent than previously. The DUP have played it all wrong and I think history will view them as unwitting catalysts to the eventual unity. 

Brexit makes it more likely for sure.  But people in the Republic who wish unification to happen (which despite all the problems it would bring is still a majority) would be best served by not talking about it at all.  N.Ireland knows that option is there if they want it,  Can't see it happening for the next couple of decades anyway. 

[Stive Pesley]

20 minutes ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

The next step is a general election campaign so febrile and nasty that we will scarcely be able to call ourselves civilised.

I think you're right. We tend to keep our debate civilised here, and the one thing we all seem to agree on is that the current level of public debate is toxic, unproductive and getting worse

An election campaign will give it steroids.

Every possible polarising issue will be hammered, and it will be a bloodbath. There are already stories that the Tories are conducting polls to identify the most contentious issues so that they can plan their attacks. (eg expect Trans-rights to be one of them - given that this hugely transphobic journalist has been appointed a special adviser to BJ https://twitter.com/mragilligan)

Never mind food shortages, or the NHS being handed over to US corporations, or your Dad dying because he can't get his insulin - there might be a trans person in the toilet. ?

 

 

 

 

[G STAR RAM]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

Instead of the political paradise we've had for God knows how long? 

Is that how you refer to the EU these days?