Comparisons

[Carl Sagan]

Thanks for the OP. Interesting comparison.

Last year there was a top 3 already out of sight. This year there is still a clear top 3, averaging over 2pts a game or more, but they are much closer to the chasing pack of 4. Effectively we are 2nd in that chasing pack, as both us and Peterboro have better records than Stevenage.

I agree with those who say the division is much weaker this year than last. Happily we're in a much better position than last year, but I think we've demonstrated in the past we have a weak mentality once we've got into a position to challenge. It's very important to overcome that and not fall back.

It's not enough to be "in the playoffs". This is *the* season to win promotion from this division. Good to see there's a chance. I want us to prove ourselves and not drop out of the playoff places from now on, while inexorably closing in on the top 2. Looking forward to another comparison, maybe at the halfway point?

[sage]

6 hours ago, islandram said:

It seems to me that the vast majority’s views are being influenced by a couple of posters views and dislike of our management and players. And it also appears that if we won 5 nil every week they would not be satisfied. perhaps a reality check and look in mirror would bring the much needed evidence that we are in division 3 and lucky to still be going.but it’s a free world and opinions are a personal choice. I’m sure there are rams supporters looking on laughing at all this. just remember it’s only a game not everyone can win and there’s far more to life than just football. 

So a couple of posters are influencing others to dislike Warne's football and decisions.

What a load of bilge.

 

[sage]

13 hours ago, On the Ram Page said:

A comparison of the League Tables as at 29 November 2022 & 2023 makes interesting reading:

2022                  PLD   W    D   L      F       A         GD        P

Plymouth           19      13   4   2      39    22        17         43

Ipswich              19      12   5   2      38     19        19         41

Sheff W              19      12   4  3       35    16        19         40

Peterb                19      10   1   8       34    23       11          31

Bolton                 18       9   4   5       21    15         6          31

Barnsley             18       9    3   6       23   15         8          30

Portsmouth        17       7    8   2       26   18         8          29

Derby                 18       8    5   5       23   16         7          29

 

2023                  PLD   W    D   L      F       A         GD        P

Bolton               18      12   3    3     37     18        19         39

Portsmouth      18      11   6    1      29     16        13         39

Oxford              18      11   3    4     31      18        13         36

Stevenage        20     10  6    4     29      19        10         36

Peterb               19     10  5    4     37      20        17         35

Derby                18     10  3    5     31       16        15         33 

Barnsley            18      9  4    5     34      20        14         31

Blackpool          20     8   6    6    33       25         5         30

 

Admittedly, you can read anything into stats to back up your own position but with a fairly positive (but realistic) outlook, I can see some positives. At this stage last year we were 11 and 13 points behind the top two, this year currently only 6 points. Last year, I think everyone would agree, Ipswich and Plymouth were the outstanding teams throughout the year, rightly gaining automatic promotion.

The consensus of opinion is that Derby haven't played as well as they might at present but are still 4 points better off than last year. Surprising, having lost our talisman McGoldrick, we have scored 8 more goals than at this stage last year, conceding the same as last year (16). Both Bolton & Barnsley have also scored a lot more goals too, helped by two huge wins.

My conclusions: things are no where near as bad as is being made out. Hopefully there will be a lot more goals to come together with an uplift in "exciting" performances. Hopefully we can keep hold of the players we want to retain in January and bring in a couple who can really improve the team, to the next level.

My positive spin - I know the doubters will use the stats to put a different view on things. 

Interesting post.

We are 4th ppg and , as it is a weaker division this year, its no surprise that its tighter.

It's also interesting that the 2 teams with the biggest fan base In us and Bolton are now making progress after Oxford and Pompey had that good start.

If December goes as well as November we could be 2nd by the New Year 

 

 

[Bris Vegas]

Derby are always brilliant in November and December.

Under McClaren three times we had brilliant records before a stumble around February.

We were too two under Clement and Rowett until after the new year.

We were flying under Lampard until Mount’s injury after the new year.

And last season under Warne we went about 18 games unbeaten until we lost at Wycombe or someone like that.

If you know Derby, then our current form isn’t a surprise. Expect top two by late December.

Expect posts of ‘just give us the title now’ before our customary February slump.

This season we will get promoted though. The league is dog awful. Warne needs binning if he can’t get us up this year.

[Ambitious]

Based on my eye test, I don't think there has been much change from last season. We've lost McGoldrick's class in the final third, but we're a lot better at the back. Last season we could put bad teams away, this season we can take points off those around us. Differences, but the performance level is very similar. No surprise to see us on similar points at the same points in the season. The key now is how much we can push on, I feel like we're slowly finding our way but as mentioned the league is so bad so I think it's actually harder for the players to progress as they want - if we played Bolton, Portsmouth, every other week then we would be a much better side. 

[tomsdubs]

4 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

Derby are always brilliant in November and December.

Under McClaren three times we had brilliant records before a stumble around February.

We were too two under Clement and Rowett until after the new year.

We were flying under Lampard until Mount’s injury after the new year.

And last season under Warne we went about 18 games unbeaten until we lost at Wycombe or someone like that.

If you know Derby, then our current form isn’t a surprise. Expect top two by late December.

Expect posts of ‘just give us the title now’ before our customary February slump.

This season we will get promoted though. The league is dog awful. Warne needs binning if he can’t get us up this year.

Not getting promoted with this squad and the Jan window with money available would be a pretty big fail in my eyes. It's good to be able to scrape wins away at Port Vale but a bit more football sometimes wouldn't go amiss.

[jimtastic56]

16 hours ago, David said:

Guilty as charged. 😂

Only joking David , it’s great to have you back on line . A sure sign things are going well .😜

[Day]

8 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

Only joking David , it’s great to have you back on line . A sure sign things are going well .😜

Google Glory Hunter and my face will appear.

I only post when we're winning, possssst when we're winning! 😂

[Tamworthram]

5 minutes ago, David said:

Google Glory Hunter and my face will appear.

I only post when we're winning, possssst when we're winning! 😂

The opposite of some forum members then (not naming names). 😀

[Day]

47 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

The opposite of some forum members then (not naming names). 😀

We're all different.

For me, there is plenty of doom and gloom in the real world without spending my downtime absorbing unnecessary negativity over a style of football.

Not saying everyone should be like me, I'm not the online football fan blueprint to follow, just doing what works well in my life.

[MadAmster]

19 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Excellent post @On the Ram Page and very helpful evidence to fuel the debate…one key caveat is the fixtures ie Have we played against a comparable homogeneity of teams. Should be random and therefore of negligible difference season on season; detractors will argue teams generally are poorer this season so not “like with like”. But, a very helpful tool nonetheless. 

Of the other sides in the top 8.. IMO,

Bolton               lost 2-1 at theirs. 2 blatant penalties turned down. Theirs was a foul but outside of the box.

Portsmouth      1-1 draw at home in a game we ought to have won

Oxford              lost 1-2 at home and they were the better side on the day

Stevenage        lost 3-1 away in a game we never really got into. They play a style we have always struggled against in my 62 years of watching the Rams

Peterborough   won 2-4 away in a good performance including a very good 1st half

Barnsley            Won 3-0 at home in an impressive performance

Blackpool          won 1-3 away in another good performance

This points to our last five games in this last half of the season will be mostly against sides outside the top 8 (only Oxford currently in the top 8 - 3rd place)and we ought to be able to expect a reasonable points haul. We have 33 so far. I expect wins against Orient, Lincoln and Wigan. Wycombe will be difficult as they employ unsavoury tactics often referred to as the dark arts, take forever to take throws, corners, free kicks and goal kicks, hopefully a 1-0 win as their style frustrates our players as much as it does us. Oxford away is a difficult one and I'd be happy with a draw.

[Foreveram]

7 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

Of the other sides in the top 8.. IMO,

Bolton               lost 2-1 at theirs. 2 blatant penalties turned down. Theirs was a foul but outside of the box.

Portsmouth      1-1 draw at home in a game we ought to have won

Oxford              lost 1-2 at home and they were the better side on the day

Stevenage        lost 3-1 away in a game we never really got into. They play a style we have always struggled against in my 62 years of watching the Rams

Peterborough   won 2-4 away in a good performance including a very good 1st half

Barnsley            Won 3-0 at home in an impressive performance

Blackpool          won 1-3 away in another good performance

This points to our last five games in this last half of the season will be mostly against sides outside the top 8 (only Oxford currently in the top 8 - 3rd place)and we ought to be able to expect a reasonable points haul. We have 33 so far. I expect wins against Orient, Lincoln and Wigan. Wycombe will be difficult as they employ unsavoury tactics often referred to as the dark arts, take forever to take throws, corners, free kicks and goal kicks, hopefully a 1-0 win as their style frustrates our players as much as it does us. Oxford away is a difficult one and I'd be happy with a draw.

Wigan without the points deduction would only be three points behind us.

[ap04]

On 29/11/2023 at 13:46, On the Ram Page said:

A comparison of the League Tables as at 29 November 2022 & 2023 makes interesting reading:

2022                  PLD   W    D   L      F       A         GD        P

Plymouth           19      13   4   2      39    22        17         43

Ipswich              19      12   5   2      38     19        19         41

Sheff W              19      12   4  3       35    16        19         40

Peterb                19      10   1   8       34    23       11          31

Bolton                 18       9   4   5       21    15         6          31

Barnsley             18       9    3   6       23   15         8          30

Portsmouth        17       7    8   2       26   18         8          29

Derby                 18       8    5   5       23   16         7          29

 

2023                  PLD   W    D   L      F       A         GD        P

Bolton               18      12   3    3     37     18        19         39

Portsmouth      18      11   6    1      29     16        13         39

Oxford              18      11   3    4     31      18        13         36

Stevenage        20     10  6    4     29      19        10         36

Peterb               19     10  5    4     37      20        17         35

Derby                18     10  3    5     31       16        15         33 

Barnsley            18      9  4    5     34      20        14         31

Blackpool          20     8   6    6    33       25         5         30

Comparing tables is really superficial considering after 18 games a team is on average 4 points better/worse off where they deserve to be and upwards of 10 max.

A more accurate assessment would be:

2022
Lucky: Oxford (2) Barnsley (2) MK Dons (2)
Unlucky: Charlton (1) Fleetwood (2) Lincoln (1) Port Vale (1) Exeter (2) Morecambe (2) Portsmouth (2)
Deserved points: +5 (34)

Chances net (red card-adjusted): +1.8 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 4, conceded 3.8

2023
Lucky: Fleetwood (2) Peterborough (2) Portsmouth (1) Blackpool (2) Bristol (2)
Unlucky: Wigan (1) Oxford (1) Cambridge (2) Cheltenham (2)
Deserved points: -3 (30)

Chances net: +1.72 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 3.2, conceded 4.4

Marginally worse and considerably luckier this year.

[ossieram]

1 hour ago, ap04 said:

Comparing tables is really superficial considering after 18 games a team is on average 4 points better/worse off where they deserve to be and upwards of 10 max.

A more accurate assessment would be:

2022
Lucky: Oxford (2) Barnsley (2) MK Dons (2)
Unlucky: Charlton (1) Fleetwood (2) Lincoln (1) Port Vale (1) Exeter (2) Morecambe (2) Portsmouth (2)
Deserved points: +5 (34)

Chances net (red card-adjusted): +1.8 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 4, conceded 3.8

2023
Lucky: Fleetwood (2) Peterborough (2) Portsmouth (1) Blackpool (2) Bristol (2)
Unlucky: Wigan (1) Oxford (1) Cambridge (2) Cheltenham (2)
Deserved points: -3 (30)

Chances net: +1.72 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 3.2, conceded 4.4

Marginally worse and considerably luckier this year.

So we weren't Unlucky v Bolton?

[Tamworthram]

3 hours ago, ap04 said:

Comparing tables is really superficial considering after 18 games a team is on average 4 points better/worse off where they deserve to be and upwards of 10 max.

A more accurate assessment would be:

2022
Lucky: Oxford (2) Barnsley (2) MK Dons (2)
Unlucky: Charlton (1) Fleetwood (2) Lincoln (1) Port Vale (1) Exeter (2) Morecambe (2) Portsmouth (2)
Deserved points: +5 (34)

Chances net (red card-adjusted): +1.8 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 4, conceded 3.8

2023
Lucky: Fleetwood (2) Peterborough (2) Portsmouth (1) Blackpool (2) Bristol (2)
Unlucky: Wigan (1) Oxford (1) Cambridge (2) Cheltenham (2)
Deserved points: -3 (30)

Chances net: +1.72 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 3.2, conceded 4.4

Marginally worse and considerably luckier this year.

How do you define “lucky”, “unlucky” or what a team “deserves”?
 

Are you saying we were lucky against Peterborough, Blackpool and Bristol in particular? If so, on what basis?

I don’t know how you can say your assessment is more accurate than actual achievements when it’s based on something as subjective your opinion on luck.

Maybe I’m completely misreading your post.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Tamworthram

[G STAR RAM]

4 hours ago, ap04 said:

Comparing tables is really superficial considering after 18 games a team is on average 4 points better/worse off where they deserve to be and upwards of 10 max.

A more accurate assessment would be:

2022
Lucky: Oxford (2) Barnsley (2) MK Dons (2)
Unlucky: Charlton (1) Fleetwood (2) Lincoln (1) Port Vale (1) Exeter (2) Morecambe (2) Portsmouth (2)
Deserved points: +5 (34)

Chances net (red card-adjusted): +1.8 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 4, conceded 3.8

2023
Lucky: Fleetwood (2) Peterborough (2) Portsmouth (1) Blackpool (2) Bristol (2)
Unlucky: Wigan (1) Oxford (1) Cambridge (2) Cheltenham (2)
Deserved points: -3 (30)

Chances net: +1.72 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 3.2, conceded 4.4

Marginally worse and considerably luckier this year.

Comparing a league table is superficial and a much more reliable comparison is you saying whether you think we were lucky or not in games?! 😂😂😂

[Archied]

13 hours ago, ap04 said:

Comparing tables is really superficial considering after 18 games a team is on average 4 points better/worse off where they deserve to be and upwards of 10 max.

A more accurate assessment would be:

2022
Lucky: Oxford (2) Barnsley (2) MK Dons (2)
Unlucky: Charlton (1) Fleetwood (2) Lincoln (1) Port Vale (1) Exeter (2) Morecambe (2) Portsmouth (2)
Deserved points: +5 (34)

Chances net (red card-adjusted): +1.8 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 4, conceded 3.8

2023
Lucky: Fleetwood (2) Peterborough (2) Portsmouth (1) Blackpool (2) Bristol (2)
Unlucky: Wigan (1) Oxford (1) Cambridge (2) Cheltenham (2)
Deserved points: -3 (30)

Chances net: +1.72 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 3.2, conceded 4.4

Marginally worse and considerably luckier this year.

Your ted Roger’s and I claim my £5 

3-2-1 

[Archied]

10 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

How do you define “lucky”, “unlucky” or what a team “.

Maybe I’m completely misreading your post.

 

 

I read it 3 times and I’m certain I won dusty bin🤷🏻‍♂️

Edited December 1, 2023 by Archied

[Comrade 86]

15 hours ago, ap04 said:

Comparing tables is really superficial considering after 18 games a team is on average 4 points better/worse off where they deserve to be and upwards of 10 max.

A more accurate assessment would be:

2022
Lucky: Oxford (2) Barnsley (2) MK Dons (2)
Unlucky: Charlton (1) Fleetwood (2) Lincoln (1) Port Vale (1) Exeter (2) Morecambe (2) Portsmouth (2)
Deserved points: +5 (34)

Chances net (red card-adjusted): +1.8 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 4, conceded 3.8

2023
Lucky: Fleetwood (2) Peterborough (2) Portsmouth (1) Blackpool (2) Bristol (2)
Unlucky: Wigan (1) Oxford (1) Cambridge (2) Cheltenham (2)
Deserved points: -3 (30)

Chances net: +1.72 pg

Chances/goals scored ratio 3.2, conceded 4.4

Marginally worse and considerably luckier this year.

[ap04]

On 30/11/2023 at 17:46, ossieram said:

So we weren't Unlucky v Bolton?

If you start factoring in the man less we were - but there was a red v Port Vale last year to the same effect.

On 30/11/2023 at 20:27, Tamworthram said:

How do you define “lucky”, “unlucky” or what a team “deserves”?

Basically 2 near-goal events -or goals or the equivalent sum of lesser ones- more than the opposition worthy of a win (the threshold for win probability to go over 50% and for the chances/chances per goal constant to round up to 1). Nothing subjective or opinion-based, just far more precise.

On 30/11/2023 at 21:30, G STAR RAM said:

Comparing a league table is superficial and a much more reliable comparison is you saying whether you think we were lucky or not in games?! 😂😂😂

You can equally toss a coin a handful of times, just look at the outcome and conclude it was rigged or there is a skill to it (or you can argue that would be superficial and a much bigger sample is needed).

Or you watch a football match, keep just 2 big moments and dismiss 10 other moments that were about the same quality-wise like they never happened, your indicator will be more reliable for sure.