Comparisons

[Tamworthram]

23 minutes ago, ap04 said:

If you start factoring in the man less we were - but there was a red v Port Vale last year to the same effect.

Basically 2 near-goal events -or goals or the equivalent sum of lesser ones- more than the opposition worthy of a win (the threshold for win probability to go over 50% and for the chances/chances per goal constant to round up to 1). Nothing subjective or opinion-based, just far more precise.

You can equally toss a coin a handful of times, just look at the outcome and conclude it was rigged or there is a skill to it (or you can argue that would be superficial and a much bigger sample is needed).

Or you watch a football match, keep just 2 big moments and dismiss 10 other moments that were about the same quality-wise like they never happened, your indicator will be more reliable for sure.

How do you define a "near goal event"? Surely that has to be subjective (and irrelevant if you don't actually score). 

Does having more so called near goal events (when added to actual goals scored) than the opposition mean you deserved to win? Surely not.

If an attacking team has a very good goal scoring change (presumably a near goal event 🤷) but a goal is prevented by good but maybe last ditch defending, that's not luck or suggests the attacking team deserved to score.

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Tamworthram

[MadAmster]

We've conceded as many as this time last year and scored more. Not sure if folk will see that as a success or failure. Considering the turnover in players and the injuries and having to assimilate a dozen new players. I see it as an improvement. A net improvement in the squad over the January window should see us get more points in the 2nd half of the season than we will have in the 1st and put us in a good position for 3rd prize (top 6) at worst, 2nd prize (2nd place) or the 2st prize, going up as Champions.

That's the theory and logic but, this is football and, more importantly, it's Derby, it doesn't work that way. We shall see what we shall see. UTR!

[MadAmster]

... 2st should read 1st of course 🙂

[FindernRam]

I don't buy into this "weaker" league stuff at all.

Every year league 1 has the teams ranked 45 to 68 in the football pyramid. So by a cascade of quality from Premier Champions to non- league the team strength in each league will be roughly the same  unless there is a general decline in player quality or tactics. OR teams coming down to L1 are weaker than teams going up ( or going down to L2 v those coming up). The yo-yo clubs suggest this is not really the case. Many teams stay in their league for-ever it seems like.

Outlier performing teams just level it up for the rest.

[Van der MoodHoover]

11 hours ago, MadAmster said:

We've conceded as many as this time last year and scored more. Not sure if folk will see that as a success or failure. Considering the turnover in players and the injuries and having to assimilate a dozen new players. I see it as an improvement. A net improvement in the squad over the January window should see us get more points in the 2nd half of the season than we will have in the 1st and put us in a good position for 3rd prize (top 6) at worst, 2nd prize (2nd place) or the 2st prize, going up as Champions.

That's the theory and logic but, this is football and, more importantly, it's Derby, it doesn't work that way. We shall see what we shall see. UTR!

Last year it was the second half of the season that did for our promotion ambitions so it's there that we need improvement.

[FindernRam]

11 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Last year it was the second half of the season that did for our promotion ambitions so it's there that we need improvement.

It seems like every year we fade in Jan Feb.

[MadAmster]

11 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Last year it was the second half of the season that did for our promotion ambitions so it's there that we need improvement.

Shouldn't be too hard provided we get the players in we need (striker, NML-like wide player and a MF general) AND adequately replace any players who leave.

[ap04]

On 02/12/2023 at 12:17, Tamworthram said:

How do you define a "near goal event"? Surely that has to be subjective

In the same way that you can have different scales for defining say earthquakes, but you would never think biggest earthquake=1 the rest/none=0 is better.

On 02/12/2023 at 12:17, Tamworthram said:

Does having more so called near goal events (when added to actual goals scored) than the opposition mean you deserved to win? Surely not.

Oh absolutely. First, the difference in quality between near misses and goals is very little (inches, split-seconds, the bounce of the ball on the day). Second, goals are a rubbish sample compared to chances. Say you have two equal teams scoring the same in the long run, and not at constant but quite random intervals, split that into blocks of about 2 goals and it's clear what you'll get in each is some random nonsense.

On 02/12/2023 at 12:17, Tamworthram said:

If an attacking team has a very good goal scoring change (presumably a near goal event 🤷) but a goal is prevented by good but maybe last ditch defending, that's not luck or suggests the attacking team deserved to score.

Missing the fact that overall the defending was much poorer than the opposition -and same for the attacking- for allowing the chance in the first place. The luck element is that this was not at all reflected in the result.

[Tamworthram]

22 minutes ago, ap04 said:

In the same way that you can have different scales for defining say earthquakes, but you would never think biggest earthquake=1 the rest/none=0 is better.

Oh absolutely. First, the difference in quality between near misses and goals is very little (inches, split-seconds, the bounce of the ball on the day). Second, goals are a rubbish sample compared to chances. Say you have two equal teams scoring the same in the long run, and not at constant but quite random intervals, split that into blocks of about 2 goals and it's clear what you'll get in each is some random nonsense.

Missing the fact that overall the defending was much poorer than the opposition -and same for the attacking- for allowing the chance in the first place. The luck element is that this was not at all reflected in the result.

Missing the fact that our defending was sufficiently good enough compared to their attacking to prevent them scoring more than two goals and our attacking was sufficiently good enough compared to their defending to enable us to score four goals. There was only one of our goals that had an element of luck about it and I can’t recall any Peterborough attempts where a goal was avoided by luck. The result was a reflection of how each team managed to convert their chances whilst they were on top.

Whichever way you cut it the quality of the attacking and defending of each team is a subjective opinion.

I really don’t get your first point about equal teams scoring the same number of goals and splitting it into blocks etc. Yo’ve completely lost me there.

Also, the scale of an earthquake is defined by the measured scale of its tremors (or something like that). It is an objective and measurable scale. I don’t know how on earth you can compare them to near goal attempts.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Tamworthram

[Elwood P Dowd]

3 hours ago, FindernRam said:

It seems like every year we fade in Jan Feb.

That’s us, up like a rocket down like a stick😂🐏🐏🐏

[Van der MoodHoover]

10 hours ago, MadAmster said:

Shouldn't be too hard provided we get the players in we need (striker, NML-like wide player and a MF general) AND adequately replace any players who leave.

That's a big do list. I'm really struggling to think of the last time we materially improved in a January window. It's a real challenge I would say.

[MadAmster]

13 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

That's a big do list. I'm really struggling to think of the last time we materially improved in a January window. It's a real challenge I would say.

Spot on, Van der MH. We will stand or fall, this season, on how effective we are in January. My list was what I perceive to be what we need to storm the 2nd half of the season. I hope we get them all but I won't be holding my breath.