Derby vs Port Vale

[Ellafella]

22 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

The way to test the goodness of fit of any statistic is to do analyse the distribution of the actual vs expected. That is, the distribution of the residual (A-E)

You'd expect that shape to be the classic bell shaped curve. But the value of the mean, or peak of the curve, should be close to 0 with a relatively narrow dispersion around the mean for it to be seen as statistically "good".

Hey @Van der MoodHoover you do know your R-squared from your elbow .

[Bris Vegas]

26 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Evidence?

I should probably have written wouldn't. I don't know how much he lost on Derby County (through his own fault so no sympathy from me there) but I doubt he would have been able to continue losing at the same rate.

He put himself in a position where he wouldn't continue. And he found himself in that position due to poor recruitment. 

You can't spend 25 million on a Championship side in one summer and get worse. That can't happen unless you recruit poorly. That summer kicked it all off. Before then, we had a top six squad on a midtable budget. We went from being in a very positiive position to one verging on reckless gambling in 3 months.

 

[Mucker1884]

58 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

“We’re on our wayyyy, we’re on our way! To the championship we’re on our way, how will we get there I don’t know, how will we get there I don’t care, all I know is Derby’s on their way…”. 

Cheers pal.  🍻
I can join in from my NE seat now.
I initially thought it was "Run away", so didn't pursue it as I didn't want to join in such a cowardly act!  😉🤣

[Bris Vegas]

40 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Know we hadn't.  Loopholes yes as used by every club from loaning 10 million quid players from parent clubs, selling a stadium to a family member, claiming you've overspent as you would have sold 30 million quid of youngsters if not for covid,  putting your debt into another business you own,  converting debt into shares you then sell to yourself at a higher rate than the debt. etc.  Ours was signed off and minimal in comparison to most of these whoppers. The rules were retrospectively changed after the EFL dragged us through the gutter, they then changed the rules further to give breathing space to clubs for covid on accounts we'd already lost points for.  We did not break any rules as ratified by an independent accountant at our first hearing, before the EFL's handpicked witchhunt.

You've added about 5 million on to that recruitment bill as well.  Take off another 6.2 mill for player sales on top. Not that excessive for 9 players.

We got relegated because a bloke worth twice our current chairman wouldn't foot the bill he needed to pay.  If he had, he'd have got most of it back on the club sale.  He got bored with his toy.  Nothing to do with recruitment.

A bill which was caused by poor recruitment. There is no other way around that. All that you mention came as a result of our owner not footing the bill he created by recruiting poorly. He didn't spaff his money away on anything else. The debts increased because the wage bill soared, and the income received from transfers was being dwarfed by the expenditure on transfers.

Look at the position Brentford are in. And they did that without the resources Derby could produce from matchday income.

Brentford signed young players like Maupay, Watkins, Konsa, Benrahma, Raya, Mepham, Sawyers, Egan, Woods... Literally over 100 million in profit sales while as a Championship club over four seasons. 

Derby, meanwhile, made a profit on only about four players in the same period. A period where we signed about 50 new players. And the profits on Ince and Vydra were a couple of million each. 

Recruitment is what has seen Brentford fly, and what has seen Derby fall. 

 

[G STAR RAM]

11 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

I should probably have written wouldn't. I don't know how much he lost on Derby County (through his own fault so no sympathy from me there) but I doubt he would have been able to continue losing at the same rate.

He put himself in a position where he wouldn't continue. And he found himself in that position due to poor recruitment. 

You can't spend 25 million on a Championship side in one summer and get worse. That can't happen unless you recruit poorly. That summer kicked it all off. Before then, we had a top six squad on a midtable budget. We went from being in a very positiive position to one verging on reckless gambling in 3 months.

From memory, purchased the club for £50m and then injected a further £130m. 

Total £180m out of an estimated fortune of £500m.

 Recouped £20m of that from the sale of the ground?

Covid/EFL gave him the perfect excuse to get out once he got bored and the fans starting asking questions about the finances. 

That's why I state it was not bad recruitment that got us relegated to League One.

[Bris Vegas]

13 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

From memory, purchased the club for £50m and then injected a further £130m. 

Total £180m out of an estimated fortune of £500m.

 Recouped £20m of that from the sale of the ground?

Covid/EFL gave him the perfect excuse to get out once he got bored and the fans starting asking questions about the finances. 

That's why I state it was not bad recruitment that got us relegated to League One.

The club (well Mel) was losing north of 30 million a year and the team was getting worse. Covid obviously tipped him over the edge but it didn't tip the owners of other clubs over the edge. It tipped Mel over because he spaffed a large chunk of his wealth on crap signings and a bloated wage bill.

Bad recruitment is the root of it all.

A patient dies of cancer and cancer is the cause of death. But the patient gets cancer because of years of smoking like a chimney. So what was the cause of patient's death? Cancer or smoking? One led to the other which led to the final outcome.

Derby's final outcome was caused by relegation which was caused by the points deduction. But what caused the points deduction? Poor recruitment. It all goes back to this. 

 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Bris Vegas

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

7 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

A bill which was caused by poor recruitment. There is no other way around that. All that you mention came as a result of our owner not footing the bill he created by recruiting poorly. He didn't spaff his money away on anything else. The debts increased because the wage bill soared, and the income received from transfers was being dwarfed by the expenditure on transfers.

Look at the position Brentford are in. And they did that without the resources Derby could produce from matchday income.

Brentford signed young players like Maupay, Watkins, Konsa, Benrahma, Raya, Mepham, Sawyers, Egan, Woods... Literally over 100 million in profit sales while as a Championship club over four seasons. 

Derby, meanwhile, made a profit on only about four players in the same period. A period where we signed about 50 new players. And the profits on Ince and Vydra were a couple of million each. 

Recruitment is what has seen Brentford fly, and what has seen Derby fall. 

 

We made 6 million on Ince and nearly 4 on Vydra.  We also made16 on two academy players. Derby were relegated because the owner decided not to pay his bill and the EFL retrospectively reared us.  Whether he spent a billion or a thousand makes no difference.  Your argument holds no water.  

[Mucker1884]

#Worst post-victory matchday thread chit chat ever.

 

[Bris Vegas]

5 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

We made 6 million on Ince and nearly 4 on Vydra.  We also made16 on two academy players. Derby were relegated because the owner decided not to pay his bill and the EFL retrospectively reared us.  Whether he spent a billion or a thousand makes no difference.  Your argument holds no water.  

You think we made 6 million on Ince and 4 on Vydra? Do you think we were not paying them while they were here?

Derby were relegated because Mel didn't pay the bill. Mel didn't pay the bill because he had burned a big hole in his wallet. Mel had burned a big hole in his wallet through poor recruitment.

 

[Steve Buckley’s Dog]

But apart from that, it was a well taken goal wasn’t it! 

[Srg]

13 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

#Worst post-victory matchday thread chit chat ever.

 

Legit. Did we play last night or what?

[ilkleyram]

1 hour ago, angieram said:

I've got a really "out there" idea.

How about we use the matchday thread to discuss the match and take the other tedious debates over to other threads? 

Don't suppose it will ever catch on! 

Nice try @angieram  I fear it wasn’t very successful 🤣🤣

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

6 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

You think we made 6 million on Ince and 4 on Vydra? Do you think we were not paying them while they were here?

Derby were relegated because Mel didn't pay the bill. Mel didn't pay the bill because he had burned a big hole in his wallet. Mel had burned a big hole in his wallet through poor recruitment.

 

Do you not think their wages were at least covered by those profits or did Mel set fire to it ?  Mel took his cash away as he got bored and even more bored with batting the EFL.  Life's too short too keep battling this laughable argument when your rewriting history and misquoting transfers fees on just two players.  Bit poor to bring cancer into a football argument as well to score points.  Leaves me a bit cold so I'll leave you to it.

[G STAR RAM]

19 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

The club (well Mel) was losing north of 30 million a year and the team was getting worse.

The last 2 sets of published accounts were 2017 and 2018.

2017 showed a loss of circa £8m.

2018 showed a profit of £15m, or a loss of £25m if adjusted for the profit on the ground.

The cash loss for the 2 years combined was £9m.

Net transfer fees for the 2 years was £10m.

 

 

[Brammie Steve]

Ancient history, stagnant water under a creaking bridge!
Boring and scarcely germane to a team with 12 points out of 12, games in hand in 6th place…
And who are at present condemned to play against boring opposition!

Exciting innit!

[Henrycav81]

9 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

You think we made 6 million on Ince and 4 on Vydra? Do you think we were not paying them while they were here?

Derby were relegated because Mel didn't pay the bill. Mel didn't pay the bill because he had burned a big hole in his wallet. Mel had burned a big hole in his wallet through poor recruitment.

 

Mel didn’t pay the bill because he chose not to, yes he probably lost money but I’ve not seen him down the food bank,he’s still a very rich man. Lionel virtually died skint due to ploughing his savings into the club but his legacy is pride park and moor farm. Mel managed to lose the club pride park. There are several reasons why everything went tits up recruitment being one of them.

Anyway I thought this was the matchday thread for what it’s worth I thought we played ok last night and deserved to win 

[Bris Vegas]

Just now, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

Do you not think their wages were at least covered by those profits or did Mel set fire to it ?  Mel took his cash away as he got bored and even more bored with batting the EFL.  Life's too short too keep battling this laughable argument when your rewriting history and misquoting transfers fees on just two players.  Bit poor to bring cancer into a football argument as well to score points.  Leaves me a bit cold so I'll leave you to it.

The cancer arguement could have been replaced with anything. Lost a nan to alzheimers. She smoked a lot. That was likely the root cause. There are consequences to everything and there are root causes. Like the big bang.

I'll have my beliefs that Derby's current position stems from Mel's 2015/16 splurge. From that moment, I believe everything he did was a consquence of that summer whether it was fighting the EFL, digging his hands deeper in his pockets to try and cover losses, selling the stadium. One error after another. 

Despite the end of the season drop off in 2014-15, I still saw Derby with a healthy squad in a strong position. 

We can end it here. We all have our opinions.

[Caerphilly Ram]

23 minutes ago, ilkleyram said:

Nice try @angieram  I fear it wasn’t very successful 🤣🤣

It was in part, I gave up on the argument ages ago 😃 

[Sheff Ram]

1 hour ago, angieram said:

I've got a really "out there" idea.

How about we use the matchday thread to discuss the match and take the other tedious debates over to other threads? 

Don't suppose it will ever catch on! 

Hear hear @angieram

The voice of reason...

[Returning ram]

51 minutes ago, Srg said:

Legit. Did we play last night or what?

I think it's just building up to blame Warne for the recruitment during Mels period.....must be one of few things that's not been levelled at him recently.