Is Warne living on borrowed time?

[FindernRam]

Will he stay: I think it depends on his relationship with DC. How much the players we brought in were down to Warne himself or the recruitment team. There are so many things going on that we have no knowledge of. DC is maintaining his usual media silence which I think is better than a public vote of confidence as we know how that usually ends.

I want us to do well obviously but I don't have a mic in the boardroom so don't think I am qualified to judge or predict what will happen.

[FindernRam]

On 07/08/2023 at 12:45, TomTom92 said:

Well the Knight and Bielik fees haven't been allocated to the transfer pot. 

Long term we may be able to use them for transfers, but it doesn't appear that this season will be one of them.

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by FindernRam
can't delete !!!!

[vonwright]

2 hours ago, Magicman said:

Bristols first  home game had a crowd of 27,000 

Always think Bristol City should be bigger than they are. Big, beautiful and wealthy city; no real competitors in the south west so a big catchment area. Suffers from the fact it's not the most 'football' city in the world but still - I could see the attraction as a project for either a rich would-be owner or a player for that matter.

[Ghost of Clough]

17 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

It's a fascinating and excellent graph however, the data needs to be viewed in context (external factors in Warne's case may actually cancel each other out). What division were we playing in? what sort of budget did they have available? what sort of restrictions were they working under? what sort of players did they have at their disposal? 

I don't see those factors as relevant, as it's the trend you want to look at rather than is someone at 2 ppg or 1 ppg. The managers who maintained a steady ppg record (Rowett, Lampard, Rooney) were the ones who left, whilst the ones who were on a downward trajectory (Mac1, Clement, Mac2, Cocu) were all sacked. The question here would be, is Warne going to level off an maintain his current ppg record, or continue to drop off and follow a similar downward trend to Cocu.

[Carnero]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I don't see those factors as relevant, as it's the trend you want to look at rather than is someone at 2 ppg or 1 ppg. The managers who maintained a steady ppg record (Rowett, Lampard, Rooney) were the ones who left, whilst the ones who were on a downward trajectory (Mac1, Clement, Mac2, Cocu) were all sacked. The question here would be, is Warne going to level off an maintain his current ppg record, or continue to drop off and follow a similar downward trend to Cocu.

He needs the ppg record to go back on an upward trend if we're to challenge for promotion, not level off! 😬

[RoyMac5]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I started looking at the PPG record of our managers since Clough was replaced in 2013, with results in all competitions counting. Some such as Mac (both times), Lampard and Rosenior started off very well. Others such as Rooney, Clement and Pearson started off badly. However, every managers record started to level off around the 15-20 game mark, with just a couple of exceptions.

Looking at each managers overall PPG record from game 21+, here are a few observations:

• Mac 1 - Hovered around 2 ppg, up until the final 10 game slump, 'when heads were turned'.
• Clement - After an initial purple period between games 20 to 25, form slumped with only Cocu and Rooney having worse ppg records at 33 games
• Mac 2 - Form nosedived just as quickly as Clement's did
• Rowett - After a purple patch in his 30's, he reverted back to norm by the end of the season
• Lampard - A steady 80 points a season record dropped to a steady 73 points per season record which was starting to increase when sacked
• Cocu - Despite a purple patch towards the end of the 19/20 season, he reverted back to norm for his last 10 games in charge
• Rooney - Form dropped over a 15 game period, and it stayed there until he left.
• Warne - It's been downhill since that 20-ish game run came to an end.

Be interesting to see it as one long graph so each managers beginning and end point can be taken into account? Mac2 dragged us up from near relegation and then Mel hankered after someone he liked! 😄

[Shuff264]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I don't see those factors as relevant, as it's the trend you want to look at rather than is someone at 2 ppg or 1 ppg. The managers who maintained a steady ppg record (Rowett, Lampard, Rooney) were the ones who left, whilst the ones who were on a downward trajectory (Mac1, Clement, Mac2, Cocu) were all sacked. The question here would be, is Warne going to level off an maintain his current ppg record, or continue to drop off and follow a similar downward trend to Cocu.

If he maintains at a 1.5ppg we stand to get 69pts, enough for 9th last season.

Even if he returns to his best, 1.75ppg that would be 80pts and scraping into 6th place last season.

[DCFC_Sloth]

45 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

It's cumulative. The first 15 games is erratic and doesn't tell you anything. I started at 20 is it removed Wassall's final 3 games in charge to keep the chart looking a bit cleaner. I can certainly do a rolling average too.

Here's the cumulative points (including cup games) for the same selection of managers. Warne is now just 1 point ahead of Cocu, and 4 behind Lampard and Rowett

This is the same, but limited to game 50:

Thank you! I think this is really interesting when compared to the PPG graph and shows how these stats can be shifted around to support the different views of Warne. These ones shoe him to be pretty much level with the managers who secured us sixth placed finishes, as backed up by our seventh place spot last season, and a win or two from the next couple gets him back onto the Lampard-Rowett trajectory. The PPG graphs show an alarming drop off in results and form, which is drawing him closer to Cocu, who failed to get us into the play offs and fell away badly the following season.

Despite the big unbeaten run, Warne's cumulative points never gets far away from Lampard, who was more erratic during his time here and it possibly shows that the run was far too draw heavy. It will be fascinating to see how he stacks up against Rowett, Lampard, and Cocu after game fifty/fifty-five, as this seems to be the 'play off line', because it will probably a give a good indication of where we will finish.

 

[Tamworthram]

17 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I don't see those factors as relevant, as it's the trend you want to look at rather than is someone at 2 ppg or 1 ppg. The managers who maintained a steady ppg record (Rowett, Lampard, Rooney) were the ones who left, whilst the ones who were on a downward trajectory (Mac1, Clement, Mac2, Cocu) were all sacked. The question here would be, is Warne going to level off an maintain his current ppg record, or continue to drop off and follow a similar downward trend to Cocu.

Fair point when looking at trends.

[Pottig]

4 hours ago, sage said:

And none of them ask for him to be sacked. Some strong criticism and discussing his potential demise, but no one there says 'he has to go' or 'he should be sacked' etc

Which is why in my original post I said that they were talking about it being last chance saloon for him.

The fact I've found any people saying that proves my point - some people need to give their heads a wobble. I don't know what arbitrary number of people I need to find to satisfy your demand for evidence.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Pottig

[Ghost of Clough]

47 minutes ago, Carnero said:

He needs the ppg record to go back on an upward trend if we're to challenge for promotion, not level off! 😬

41 minutes ago, Shuff264 said:

If he maintains at a 1.5ppg we stand to get 69pts, enough for 9th last season.

Even if he returns to his best, 1.75ppg that would be 80pts and scraping into 6th place last season.

74 is typically the figure you'd look for 6th, which means getting back above 1.6 (a small increase from 1.53).

42 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Be interesting to see it as one long graph so each managers beginning and end point can be taken into account? Mac2 dragged us up from near relegation and then Mel hankered after someone he liked! 😄

Edited August 10, 2023 by Ghost of Clough

[i-Ram]

43 minutes ago, Shuff264 said:

If he maintains at a 1.5ppg we stand to get 69pts, enough for 9th last season.

Even if he returns to his best, 1.75ppg that would be 80pts and scraping into 6th place last season.

He is being outthunk by other League 1 coaches in the games that really matter. We can beat the lower teams. We rarely beat anybody 'good'.

[Ghost of Clough]

6 game rolling averages starting from when they took charge.

10 game rolling average

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Ghost of Clough

[MK-Ram]

Having had a few days to think about this without passing comment, I feel like in 90% of cases the kind of interview Warne gave would mark the beginning of the end, in the other 10% you'd see a quick turnaround.

 

The club has been very tight lipped since DC came in but given the first two games and the comments made, for the first time I am a bit alarmed that there is nothing seemingly on the horizon, particularly with the possibility of Bird departing.

Burton will be a tough game, as all local games are. The manner in which we conduct ourselves will paint the picture of how we move forward though.

[sage]

16 hours ago, Pottig said:

. But going overboard and saying there should be managerial change now is, frankly, moronic. 

So you did say it

[Big Trav]

Been told mood this morning was a lot better than yesterday. Apparently there was a full meeting yesterday with staff and players where they had a productive conversation.  

[Pottig]

23 minutes ago, sage said:

So you did say it

You've just told me there are people saying that. My original point was that people suggesting that he should be removed now or that he's living on borrowed time is ridiculous. Case in point: this thread and the posts I already showed you. 

[Blondest Goat]

9 minutes ago, Big Trav said:

Been told mood this morning was a lot better than yesterday. Apparently there was a full meeting yesterday with staff and players where they had a productive conversation.  

Hopefully Warne apologised.

[Ram-Alf]

12 minutes ago, Big Trav said:

Been told mood this morning was a lot better than yesterday. Apparently there was a full meeting yesterday with staff and players where they had a productive conversation.  

I heard there wasn't a real conversation more of a terrace sing song...what do you want...Warne out, When do you want it...now 😁

 

 

[Kernow]

Just now, Blondest Goat said:

Hopefully Warne apologised.

For what? Hopefully people realised we’ve played one league game and moping about sulking about things will solve absolutely nothing.