Who do you think will be the runners in the title race (League 1)

[plymouthram]

Bookies have the Rams down as favourites with the likes of Bolton, Portsmouth, Barnsley, Peterboro and Blackpool.  Oxford, so far have had a good transfer window. Will there be a surprise team that the bookies have not picked ? Currenly Reading F.C. are with some bookies at 12/1, but they face a fresh embargo having not sorted their taxes with HRMC. There is even a rumour that the 4 recent players they have signed are currently not been registered with the EFL. Could they be facing another relegation season instead. I fancy Charlton to be a outside bet on being in the running, but maybe a promotion contender rather than being the champions of League One.

[strawhillram]

Bolton and Pompey for me. I don’t think we are title contenders unless we bring in two or three more

[Ambitious]

1 hour ago, strawhillram said:

Bolton and Pompey for me. I don’t think we are title contenders unless we bring in two or three more

Really not sure why Portsmouth are in consideration, but we aren’t? They finished below us last season, have an insanely inexperienced manager and haven’t exactly signed outstanding players: Scully couldn’t get in the Wigan squad - 5 appearances last season with just the one being longer than 15 minutes. Equally with Whyte who struggled for game time in a poor Cardiff team. Sparkes couldn’t hold down his place in Exeter’s side. Stephenson lost his place in the FGR side. People tall about lack of goals throughout our side, but apart from Colby Bishop they have very little. When you consider the players that have left too, I could easily argue the toss they’re not any better than they were last season and possibly even worse. 

[Carnero]

Just listened to the excellent Not The Top 20 Podcast and they have it:

1 Bolton

2 Derby

3 Oxford

4 Blackpool

5 Charlton

6 Portsmouth

(24 Reading)

[Carnero]

@Ambitious They also think that whilst Portsmouth have strengthened, some people are over-tipping them as they can get carried away by the sheer number of signings without properly assessing the quality of the signings 👍

[Jayram]

Pompey and Bolton for the top 2. Oxford, Charlton, Peterborough and possibly Barnsley giving them a good chasing all season. Pompey’s coach is highly regarded in football circles and Evatts record with Bolton speaks for itself. Liam Manning at Oxford has recruited well (they beat QPR 5-0 in their last pre-season friendly), Charlton are getting some decent players in and obviously Peterborough have retained the majority of their squad. Barnsley might fall away now their manager has moved on but all of the above are a good shout for promotion. 

[oldtimeram]

Without signing a decent stiker and at least one more midfielder I don't think we will be in the running for the auto positions

Edited August 2, 2023 by oldtimeram
Typo

[Mucker1884]

I'm going all in with a mortgage-risking 10p double each way bet for Derby to gain automatic play off promotion as outright winners.

My Leeds fan mate is going for the same... but he's staking 12p... obvs!

[Andrew3000]

7 minutes ago, oldtimeram said:

Without signing a decent stiker and at least one more midfielder I don't think we will be in the running for the auto positions

Agreed sadly, but we're not done yet. As it stands I can't see past Bolton and Blackpool for top 2. Barnsley, Portsmouth us and  possibly Portsmouth or charlton for playoffs. 

[IlsonDerby]

Honestly think we’re forgetting how crap most of the division was last season with the best teams (by far) having gone up and those competing with us getting weaker (bar Bolton) Barnsley and Posh definitely not going to be the worries they were last season. Teams coming down are in all kinds of trouble except Blackpool. 
 

Our squad is stronger than last season. Undoubtedly so in my opinion. Yes there are areas we’d still like to strengthen and I think we will but I’ll eat my hat if we’re not top 3/4 at the end of the season. 
 

A weaker league ☑️ 

A stronger squad ☑️ 

Manager with a full pre season ☑️ 

 

 

[Ambitious]

After a night of severe (and I mean SEVERE) sleep deprivation thanks to a new addition, I did a deep dive on other club's forums to try and gauge the feel of the place and try and get an understanding of where fans expect their clubs to be come the end of the season. Who knows the clubs hopes and aspirations better than their own fans... right(?)! 

You could probably split the division into 5 categories, however due to the sheer confidence of one side then I had to go for six categories. 

Tier 1 - automatic promotion, nothing less: Blackpool. 

No team has more confidence going into the season than Blackpool, although they've lost some (key) players they have absolute faith in their squad and management team. They even have a thread: 'we'll piss league one' where they're united in that thought. Ok, some are obviously more pessimistic about their chances but largely most feel they're at worst a play-off team next season. 

Tier 2 - play-offs, automatic promotion hopefuls: Barnsley, Bolton & I would put us here. 

Barnsley are still very confident of a good season, the general belief is they have comfortably the best midfield in the league (which I thought was ironic since most of their wins came when they barely touched the ball and still feel they have enough to mount a challenge. Bolton, too, who I think were hoping for a better transfer window than they've had but they have faith in the players remaining. They're optimistic about their frontline, more so than their defence. We're the opposite, I would say, but all three sides believe they're 2-3 players short from cementing a tier one space next to the mighty Blackpool. 

Tier 3 - play-off expectation, upper mid-table floor: Portsmouth, Charlton, Oxford, Wycombe. 

I was surprised about the confidence out of Wycombe since they've lost Lewis Wing (their best player IMO) but their recent transfer activity has them a little bit giddy. Portsmouth, who a lot of people are tipping for top 2, aren't being held in the same belief as their fans. They feel they lack creativity and goals in the side and whilst Poole and Scully have earned good reviews - the rest of the players have underwhelmed in pre-season. Charlton are a little more confident, but still feel they're quite a few short. Oxford are absolutely buzzing after their pre-season and definitely have an expectation they will be in the top 6 come the end of the season. Ruben Rodrigues as their top goalscorer. 

Tier 4 - upper midtable, play-off hopeful: Reading, Bristol Rovers and Burton Albion. 

One of these is not like the other, Reading are quite negative in their assessment and but some are still hopeful they can get to the play-offs this season. Bristol Rover and Burton Albion are more in hope than in expectation they can make it. We'll have to see about Reading, obviously they were making an impression in the market before it all got shutdown. 

Tier 5 - midtable sides with very little hope of play-offs: Lincoln, Fleetwood, Peterborough, Wigan, Leyton Orient & Cheltenham. 

Surprised at the apathy regarding Peterbrough but can only assume it's due to the news floating around the club at the minute, not surprising as we have been there. Wigan fans are confident midtable obscurity is where they will land following the -8 point deduction. I tend to agree with them. Cheltenham are fairly chipper for a team that's just lost their top goalscorer but believe Keena can more than replace him. Leyton Orient are obviously buoyant after winning League Two and keeping their better players around, bar the goalkeeper which is understandable. Lincoln are happy with their business, still many predict them to be within the 8th-14th spots. Fleetwood, somewhat surprised me, but they think they will be well clear of relegation too given Marriott and Stockley upfront. 

Tier 6 - lower midtable sides, relegation worries: Cambridge, Exeter, Shrewsbury, Stevenage, Port Vale, Northampton & Carlisle. 

I won't go into it too mcuh, but all these sides are the ones who are anticipating a struggle on the whole. Cambridge, Northampton and Exeter are the three I worry most about after looking at their fans concerns. Shrewsbury very downbeat after losing Steve Cotternil and Luke Leahy. Carlisle, Northampton and Stevenage are just promoted teams looking to survive the year. No surprise none of them have aspirations of play-offs. 

In terms of other teams expectations - definitely felt most expected us to finish top, more often than not the top two predictions were us and Bolton. Portsmouth thrown in at times, as were Barnsley. Despite Blackpool's confidence, very few had them finishing in the top 2 funnily enough. 

If I was going to use all this and make my own prediction: 

Derby, Bolton, Blackpool, Charlton, Oxford and Barnsley would be my best for a top 6. 
Cambridge, Northampton and Carlisle/Exeter for the drop. 

[I have nothing to say]

52 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

After a night of severe (and I mean SEVERE) sleep deprivation thanks to a new addition, I did a deep dive on other club's forums to try and gauge the feel of the place and try and get an understanding of where fans expect their clubs to be come the end of the season. Who knows the clubs hopes and aspirations better than their own fans... right(?)! 

You could probably split the division into 5 categories, however due to the sheer confidence of one side then I had to go for six categories. 

Tier 1 - automatic promotion, nothing less: Blackpool. 

No team has more confidence going into the season than Blackpool, although they've lost some (key) players they have absolute faith in their squad and management team. They even have a thread: 'we'll piss league one' where they're united in that thought. Ok, some are obviously more pessimistic about their chances but largely most feel they're at worst a play-off team next season. 

Tier 2 - play-offs, automatic promotion hopefuls: Barnsley, Bolton & I would put us here. 

Barnsley are still very confident of a good season, the general belief is they have comfortably the best midfield in the league (which I thought was ironic since most of their wins came when they barely touched the ball and still feel they have enough to mount a challenge. Bolton, too, who I think were hoping for a better transfer window than they've had but they have faith in the players remaining. They're optimistic about their frontline, more so than their defence. We're the opposite, I would say, but all three sides believe they're 2-3 players short from cementing a tier one space next to the mighty Blackpool. 

Tier 3 - play-off expectation, upper mid-table floor: Portsmouth, Charlton, Oxford, Wycombe. 

I was surprised about the confidence out of Wycombe since they've lost Lewis Wing (their best player IMO) but their recent transfer activity has them a little bit giddy. Portsmouth, who a lot of people are tipping for top 2, aren't being held in the same belief as their fans. They feel they lack creativity and goals in the side and whilst Poole and Scully have earned good reviews - the rest of the players have underwhelmed in pre-season. Charlton are a little more confident, but still feel they're quite a few short. Oxford are absolutely buzzing after their pre-season and definitely have an expectation they will be in the top 6 come the end of the season. Ruben Rodrigues as their top goalscorer. 

Tier 4 - upper midtable, play-off hopeful: Reading, Bristol Rovers and Burton Albion. 

One of these is not like the other, Reading are quite negative in their assessment and but some are still hopeful they can get to the play-offs this season. Bristol Rover and Burton Albion are more in hope than in expectation they can make it. We'll have to see about Reading, obviously they were making an impression in the market before it all got shutdown. 

Tier 5 - midtable sides with very little hope of play-offs: Lincoln, Fleetwood, Peterborough, Wigan, Leyton Orient & Cheltenham. 

Surprised at the apathy regarding Peterbrough but can only assume it's due to the news floating around the club at the minute, not surprising as we have been there. Wigan fans are confident midtable obscurity is where they will land following the -8 point deduction. I tend to agree with them. Cheltenham are fairly chipper for a team that's just lost their top goalscorer but believe Keena can more than replace him. Leyton Orient are obviously buoyant after winning League Two and keeping their better players around, bar the goalkeeper which is understandable. Lincoln are happy with their business, still many predict them to be within the 8th-14th spots. Fleetwood, somewhat surprised me, but they think they will be well clear of relegation too given Marriott and Stockley upfront. 

Tier 6 - lower midtable sides, relegation worries: Cambridge, Exeter, Shrewsbury, Stevenage, Port Vale, Northampton & Carlisle. 

I won't go into it too mcuh, but all these sides are the ones who are anticipating a struggle on the whole. Cambridge, Northampton and Exeter are the three I worry most about after looking at their fans concerns. Shrewsbury very downbeat after losing Steve Cotternil and Luke Leahy. Carlisle, Northampton and Stevenage are just promoted teams looking to survive the year. No surprise none of them have aspirations of play-offs. 

In terms of other teams expectations - definitely felt most expected us to finish top, more often than not the top two predictions were us and Bolton. Portsmouth thrown in at times, as were Barnsley. Despite Blackpool's confidence, very few had them finishing in the top 2 funnily enough. 

If I was going to use all this and make my own prediction: 

Derby, Bolton, Blackpool, Charlton, Oxford and Barnsley would be my best for a top 6. 
Cambridge, Northampton and Carlisle/Exeter for the drop. 

Really Interesting, thank you!

[Mucker1884]

58 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

After a night of severe (and I mean SEVERE) sleep deprivation thanks to a new addition...

 

I initially read that as "addiction"!  Had me worried for a mo!  

Anyway, congrats and all that. 👍 🍻

 

(*You'd probably mentioned your good news elsewhere already.  My attention span is horrendous!  Sorry!)

[Ghost of Clough]

6 hours ago, Carnero said:

@Ambitious They also think that whilst Portsmouth have strengthened, some people are over-tipping them as they can get carried away by the sheer number of signings without properly assessing the quality of the signings 👍

They started last season very strongly and finished just as well. They just had a poor middle of the season. They were top 6 until mid-November and 5 points behind 6th place with 2 games in hand at Christmas. They wouldn't have to change too much to carry that form over a full season

[ram59]

I'm surprised at the confidence in Blackpool, they easily had the poorest record in the championship last season, after taking into account Reading and Wigan's points deductions.

[Ghost of Clough]

The teams which picked up more points that us from 1st Feb onwards and still in L1 are: Barnsley (40), Peterborough (36), Portsmouth (33), Bolton (31), Lincoln (31), Burton (31), Fleetwood (29), Charlton (28) and Wycombe (28). We picked up 26.

I see Lincoln, Burton, Fleetwood and Wycombe as teams who will be in the main group competing for 5th and 6th. Other clubs which did worse than us but will be part of that chasing group being: Oxford (12), Bristol Rovers (16). Both had poor 2nd halves of the season, so will need to change a lot to seriously challenge. I don't think Oxford have done enough to do that, despite signing Rodrigues and Thorniley, and only picked up 11 points from 10 games under their new manager. I think Bristol Rovers have made some decent signings.

Of the sides to come down:
Wigan will be lucky to finish top half due to their current squad and points deduction.
Reading will be lucky if they can field a team of 11 senior players at the moment. They could still pull of some very good last minute loans due to location, and may be a threat for the top 6, but it'll likely be too late for automatics
Blackpool the only serious threat.

Looking at squads, I would say we have the best selection of keepers and defenders, Barnsley have the best midfielders, whereas there isn't much between the forward options at the top 6 clubs.

Using Ambitious' tier ranking system:
Tier 1 - Derby, Blackpool, Bolton, 
Tier 2 - Barnsley, Charlton, Portsmouth
Tier 3 - Peterborough, Bristol Rovers, Burton, Fleetwood, Lincoln, Oxford, Reading, Wycombe

 

Squad lists as per Transfermarkt:

[Jourdan]

1. Bolton

2. Barnsley

3. Derby

4. Oxford

5. Peterborough (if they avoid a financial meltdown)

6. Bristol Rovers

Best of the rest: Portsmouth, Blackpool, Charlton and Wycombe

[Sparkle]

1 - Derby 

2 - Portsmouth 

3 - Bolton 

4 - Peterborough 

5 - Burton 

6- Barnsley 

[Scott129]

1 - Bolton

2 - Derby

3 - Blackpool

4 - Barnsley

5 - Portsmouth

6 - Charlton

[sage]

1. Bolton

2. Derby

3. Charlton

4. Barnsley

5. Portsmouth

6. Peterborough

7. Oxford

8. Blackpool

 

I can't see any other teams with a decent chance of top 6.