How many wins to make playoffs

[G STAR RAM]

4 hours ago, 1of4 said:

If we carry on with current form we'll be lucky to get a win and a draw from these five games

Lets not get too carried away here.

Our bad form our first home defeat in 5 months, narrow away defeats to 1st and 7th place, and a spanking from the form team in the division where the scoreline was not really an accurate reflection on the match. 

Sure Saturdays performance was worrying but not time for slitting wrists just yet.

[FindernRam]

23 hours ago, Jubbs said:

Think you've read that wrong. 

66% chance to make the play offs, subsequently 15% chance to go up via play offs. 

If you hover over 1st/2nd place on the bar chart, we have <1% chance of finishing 1st or 2nd.

You may be right. I think the way the probabilities stack up is the issue here. Ipswich  and Plymouth are low percentages to make playoffs because of higher probabilities' of direct promotion. I guess also if they simulated the playoffs they have to run it with all the teams that mathematically could make the playoffs,  that is  down to 20th.

I may drop them an e-mail to see how they do it.

Anyway given our record of teams currently above us I think our odds are pretty dire! 

[1977 Ram Raider]

Sadly I don't think we'll make the play offs this season. The recent form since Warne won MOTM has been nothing short of abysmal.

 

[plymouthram]

Peterboro, Wycombe and Portsmouth, the 3 teams outside the play-offs have like us 9 games left. Two are 4 points behind with Portsmouth being 7. Everyone seems to be forgetting Bolton, they only have 8 games left and all 4 teams below us have worse goal differences. Currently 2 of them 4 teams would have to climb above us between now and by approx 1.55pm on Sunday 7th May. I will agree, that Bolton could finish above us with an easier remaining fixture list, but can the others ?  I reckon 4 wins and 3 draws will put us clear of the chasing trio. Peterboro still have Barnsley, Ipswich after playing us on Saturday, they also have a tough away game against Shrewsbury to play. Wycombe still have Ipswich to play and Portsmouth away last game of the season. If we get 4 wins and 3 draws both Wycombe and Peterboro would need 20 points out of 27 available.

[Tamworthram]

12 hours ago, plymouthram said:

Peterboro, Wycombe and Portsmouth, the 3 teams outside the play-offs have like us 9 games left. Two are 4 points behind with Portsmouth being 7. Everyone seems to be forgetting Bolton, they only have 8 games left and all 4 teams below us have worse goal differences. Currently 2 of them 4 teams would have to climb above us between now and by approx 1.55pm on Sunday 7th May. I will agree, that Bolton could finish above us with an easier remaining fixture list, but can the others ?  I reckon 4 wins and 3 draws will put us clear of the chasing trio. Peterboro still have Barnsley, Ipswich after playing us on Saturday, they also have a tough away game against Shrewsbury to play. Wycombe still have Ipswich to play and Portsmouth away last game of the season. If we get 4 wins and 3 draws both Wycombe and Peterboro would need 20 points out of 27 available.

Peterborough’s and Wycombe’s goal differences are worse than our but not by a vast amount and, in your scenario, 19 points might be enough for them. If they’re going to have a better finish to the season than us then it’s not unreasonable to assume they will probably also improve their goal difference compared to ours. Imagine the nightmare scenario of us losing 3:0 at Peterborough? That would put them just a point behind and wipe out our goal difference advantage of 6 in an instant. 

Bolton’s goal difference is only one worse than ours so, not much in it really. Regarding Portsmouth, I’ve discounted them. For them to catch us, unless they win every remaining game then it’s very likely that our form would have to be so bad that a couple of the other teams will probably have overtaken us anyway.

For what it’s worth, I do think it will come down a point or two or goal difference but we will probably just about scrape in.

 

[Jubbs]

Still supposedly more likely to get play offs than Peterborough.

[TomTom92]

Sounds dramatic and i wouldn't put money on us to achieve this how our bottle has filled up, but a nice 6 points over Easter would change the whole complexion. 

I also think both matches are probably our easiest matches remaining so failing to take full advantage probably does put the nail in our coffin. 

[Edtheram]

I do still think we can manage to get into the playoffs. I think we will know after this weekend and over the next 5 games.

We’re currently 7th, 20th in the Overall form  table (Last 10), 5th on Home form, 10th on away form. We play….

Forest Green (A) - 24th in league & Home Form, Overall form 23rd.

MK Dons (H) - 19th in league, 13th in away form and Overall form 15th.

Bristol Rovers (A) - 15th in league. 20th in home form & Overall form 19th.

Exeter (A) - 11th in league. 10th in Home form and Overall form 10th.

Burton (H) - 18th in league. 19th I’m away form and Overall form 9th.

We finish the season with Portsmouth (H) & Sheff Weds (A). These 2 games I’d be happy with us taking 3/4 points as one or Boths seasons could already be done by the time we play them. As I say next 5 are big will need 13 points from 15 IMO.

[Boycie]

The trouble is that tho win the playoffs you need to beat two top sides.

There’s a problem right there.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Boycie said:

The trouble is that tho win the playoffs you need to beat two top sides.

There’s a problem right there.

And unfortunately for us it is as simple as that!

[Oldben]

I have come across an article on the BBC Sport website (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/65161939) that discusses Derby County's plans for the upcoming transfer window. As we all know, our team is facing a difficult situation with the transfer embargo that prohibits us from signing players other than free agents and loan signings. The article suggests that Derby County is hoping to sign up to five players during the summer transfer window.

However, signing free agents and loan players does not necessarily inspire confidence for the upcoming season. We have seen this season that some of the loan signings and free agents that we brought in did not make a significant improvement to the team. Furthermore, these players may not have the same level of commitment or motivation as those who are signed to long-term contracts with the club.

It is important to note that Derby County is still under a transfer ban for next season, which means that the club has no choice but to sign free agents and loans. Free agents and loan signings can provide a quick fix to a team's problems, but they come with several cons that can affect the team's performances in the long term. These include:

Lack of match fitness: Free agents and loan players may not have played regularly for their previous clubs or may have been without a club for some time. This lack of match fitness can make it challenging for them to adapt quickly to the Championship's physical and fast-paced nature.

Lack of time to settle: Loan players usually join a new team for a short period, and it can take some time for them to adjust to the new environment, teammates, and playing style. Similarly, free agents might take a while to get used to their new team, especially if they have not played in the Championship before.

No guarantee of quality: While signing a free agent or loan player can provide a quick fix to a team's needs, there is no guarantee that the player will be of the required quality or that they will be able to adapt to the team's style of play. This uncertainty can create further problems for a team that is already struggling.

Lack of long-term commitment: Players who are signed on loan or short-term deals may not have the same level of commitment as those signed on long-term contracts. They may be less invested in the team's long-term goals, and this lack of commitment can impact their performances on the pitch.

Disruptive to team chemistry: Bringing in new players, even if it is just for a short period, can disrupt the existing team chemistry. It can take time for the players to build relationships on and off the pitch, and this can affect the team's performances in the short term.

Little to no resale value: Free agents and loan signings typically have little to no resale value due to their age, short contract durations, lack of development potential, and limited transfer market.

Given these challenges, as to this season given our recent run of form, I am concerned that we might not make the League One playoffs. I fear that the same challenges will continue to plague the team next season, and we may have to settle for a mid-table finish.

Overall, while we are all hoping for the best for Derby County, we need to be realistic about the challenges that we are facing. The club's hands are tied due to the transfer ban, and they have no choice but to sign free agents and loan players. Let's hope that the team can still perform well and exceed our expectations despite the transfer embargo and the challenges that come with signing free agents and loan players.

[Magicman]

4 wins 2 draws should be enough but the play offs need to be on top form to get through which right now we are miles off. 

[BramcoteRam84]

A lot of people saying we won’t make playoffs I think are telling themselves that to make defeat more palatable when (if) it happens. Well I’ve got news for you, you’re going to be sucked into the hope train and if it doesn’t happen then it will be after convincing yourselves it will happen again!!! This is Derby County! It’s the hope that kills you!!! 🤣🤣

FWIW I’m still confident we will make the playoffs. With us losing 3 on the spin, Wycombe and Peterborough both had easy home games to capitalise on at the weekend, they didn’t get it done. Posh may be there on goals scored but plenty of time to turn that around.
 

We weren’t at our best against Ipswich but a similar level in the next two games should be enough to win both (providing we finally get some of the key decisions going our way which we are long overdue), then two tricky but winnable away games before home games against Pompey and Burton. It’s in our hands, reminds me of end of the Rowett and Lampard seasons when many were writing us off, we actually dropped out of top 6 late in the season under Lamps, Rowett we got turned over by Sunderland and Burton, and both occasions we made it.

Said it in a previous post, not worried about Posh and Wycombe, I think the challenge could come from Pompey. That game on the 29th is looking massive now!!

[Charliegeorge1962]

Looking at the remaining fixtures I think Peterborough have a decent run in apart from Ipswich and Barnsley but both of those too will have cemented there play off spot before their games.

We can't afford to lose again over Easter as that could spell curtains for us getting into the play offs.

 

 

[Tamworthram]

3 minutes ago, Charliegeorge1962 said:

Looking at the remaining fixtures I think Peterborough have a decent run in apart from Ipswich and Barnsley but both of those too will have cemented there play off spot before their games.

We can't afford to lose again over Easter as that could spell curtains for us getting into the play offs.

 

 

Ipswich and Barnsley may well have cemented their play off positions by then but do you not think they might still be in with a shout of automatic when they play Peterborough? It will be interesting to see how Plymouth's respond to their heavy defeat on Sunday and Wednesday are having a mini wobble.

Portsmouth have arguably the easiest run in but are of çourse 3 points behind is this mini league. 

I agree though. Two wins over Easter and it's game on. Anything less (even only drawing one) could make things tricky.

[Ambitious]

We need to put away the teams we should be beating, i.e. Forest Green, MK Dons, Bristol Rovers, Burton & Exeter. We can't have any slip ups in those games and if we do that, we should be ok.

Unfortunately, we've picked up just the nine points in our last nine games, relegation form, so it's no given that we win these games when these teams have comparable quality to us in our current state.

[RodleyRam]

For my money we need to get to 80 points to secure a playoff spot. Of the 5 teams going for the two final playoff spots we are in the worst form but, and it is a big but, our poor form has to come to an end at some point. If we get 7 points from the next 3 games, the confidence level changes and we are the ones coming into good form etc.

I get the disappointment from the last couple of months but those writing us off at this point are premature. There are tears and turns to come.

I expect it to go to the last day of the season.

[Bris Vegas]

Five wins from the last seven will do it. Four wins and two draws may do it.

We can’t be heading into the last game needing to win. We won’t beat Sheff Wed away. No chance.

I suspect we will struggle to beat Exeter away too.

FGR, Burton, MK Dons and Bristol Rovers are must-win games.

That Portsmouth home game may ultimately decide it.

[Mucker1884]

7 hours ago, TomTom92 said:

Sounds dramatic and i wouldn't put money on us to achieve this how our bottle has filled up, but a nice 6 points over Easter would change the whole complexion. 

I also think both matches are probably our easiest matches remaining so failing to take full advantage probably does put the nail in our coffin. 

If we do fail to take full advantage of the Easter fixtures, we could be heading for a summer of discontent.

 

Mr Clowes removed all the nails from the coffin last summer... and smashed the lid into splinters, for good measure!

🐏

 

[simmoram1995]

5 hours ago, Magicman said:

4 wins 2 draws should be enough but the play offs need to be on top form to get through which right now we are miles off. 

I remember our playoff form under billy Davies was garbage post January won the last game and then did well