Curtains Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Would 5 do it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curtains Posted March 20, 2023 Author Share Posted March 20, 2023 Bristol. MK Dons. Burton. Forest Green . and Exeter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 78 points will be enough - 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses. If we get to 78 then either Posh or Wycombe need to win 6 of 9 to catch us which is highly unlikely. That's why I'd snap your hand off for a point at Posh on Saturday. Ram-Alf, angieram and Curtains 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 With the loss on Saturday, we are now the least likely team currently in the play offs to finish there. Such a poor result and performance. Curtains and angieram 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MackworthRamIsGod Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 It sounds defeatist, but I don't think we will make the playoffs now...boy I hope I am wrong. We have just hit a spell of poor form, players that were league 1 world beaters are looking tired and poor. Warne is starting to raise questions with his team selection, Barkhuizen falling out of a favour being one. It has the feel of the Steve McClaren season where everything seemed certain, only to fall at the last hurdle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GenBr Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Jubbs said: With the loss on Saturday, we are now the least likely team currently in the play offs to finish there. Such a poor result and performance. Does that probability mean the likelihood of us staying in the playoff places or the likelihood of us being promoted through the playoffs? We still have a chance of autos according to that. Edited March 20, 2023 by GenBr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkle Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 4 hours ago, Curtains said: Bristol. MK Dons. Burton. Forest Green . and Exeter We have only ever beaten Burton once in a league game Anyway I fully expect to beat Ipswich instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Jubbs said: With the loss on Saturday, we are now the least likely team currently in the play offs to finish there. Such a poor result and performance. Might be too early for me this and maths is not my strong point…. I’m looking at it and Plymouth in 2nd place have a 58% chance of automatic promotion and a 42% chance of promotion through the play offs. Whilst they are also saying we have a 69% chance of promotion through the play offs. That’s only 1% less of a chance than Ipswich in 3rd. If anything, isn’t this more positive for us given the recent run of form compared to others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Wycombe have a decent run in, they've got: MK Dons, FGR, Morecambe, Cambridge, Lincoln & Cheltenham left to play. You have to assume they win at least four, if not five of them games, plus they could beat anyone on their day. If you account for Wycombe getting somewhere around 77-80 points then we need to be above the 80 point mark which is a minimum of 17 points from our remaining 9 games to be sure. Peterborough have a little more tricky than Wycombe, but who knows - they smash us 4 or 5-0 on Saturday and go on a run like what Barnsley did then who knows. A win on Saturday would really give us a boost, the players need to prove they're capable of 1) beating a solid side away from home and 2) rising to the occasion of a big game in the moment. Ipswich felt like a big game in the moment and we lost. Barnsley felt like a big game in the moment and we lost. Plymouth felt like a big game in the moment and we lost. It would be nice to prove ourselves at least once on an occasion like that this season. This ultimately will prove to be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 33 minutes ago, David said: Might be too early for me this and maths is not my strong point…. I’m looking at it and Plymouth in 2nd place have a 58% chance of automatic promotion and a 42% chance of promotion through the play offs. Whilst they are also saying we have a 69% chance of promotion through the play offs. That’s only 1% less of a chance than Ipswich in 3rd. If anything, isn’t this more positive for us given the recent run of form compared to others? It isn't promotion through the play offs, it's reaching the play offs. Ipswich "only" have a 70% chance of play offs because the remaining 30% chance is for them to finish top 2. So they have >99% chance of reaching at least the play offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nottingram Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 35 minutes ago, David said: Might be too early for me this and maths is not my strong point…. I’m looking at it and Plymouth in 2nd place have a 58% chance of automatic promotion and a 42% chance of promotion through the play offs. Whilst they are also saying we have a 69% chance of promotion through the play offs. That’s only 1% less of a chance than Ipswich in 3rd. If anything, isn’t this more positive for us given the recent run of form compared to others? 69% chance of making the play offs rather than being promoted through the play offs, down from 85% pre Saturday. Ipswich’s 70% is because the other 30% is top 2. Our 69% is because the alternative is 7th or 8th, so while we are as likely (ish) to make the play offs the alternative is very different. I don’t know how much weight is put on things like form in these things. And obviously if we lose on Saturday it probably moves to about 50/50 between us and Peterborough. It’s a useful model but maybe not that practical when one off results are moving the needle by 15/20% with 10 games to go. Jubbs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jubbs said: It isn't promotion through the play offs, it's reaching the play offs. Ipswich "only" have a 70% chance of play offs because the remaining 30% chance is for them to finish top 2. So they have >99% chance of reaching at least the play offs. Are you sure? Doesn’t say reaching. The categories do make it look like it’s promotion: - Title - Automatic Promotion - Promotion Play offs - Relegation This would make all 4 categories a percentage chance of departing this league be it up or down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Fivethirtyeight have is 66% to make playoffs. 15% to go up directly (1st or second) ,<1% of winning. Their predictions are finishing positions in regular season only. The probabilites are not additive They don't predict playoffs at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 35 minutes ago, FindernRam said: Fivethirtyeight have is 66% to make playoffs. 15% to go up directly (1st or second) ,<1% of winning. Their predictions are finishing positions in regular season only. The probabilites are not additive They don't predict playoffs at this stage. Think you've read that wrong. 66% chance to make the play offs, subsequently 15% chance to go up via play offs. If you hover over 1st/2nd place on the bar chart, we have <1% chance of finishing 1st or 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curtains Posted March 20, 2023 Author Share Posted March 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Sparkle said: We have only ever beaten Burton once in a league game Anyway I fully expect to beat Ipswich instead Well “football is a funny old game” Jimmy Greaves once said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strawhillram Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 3 hours ago, MackworthRamIsGod said: It sounds defeatist, but I don't think we will make the playoffs now...boy I hope I am wrong. We have just hit a spell of poor form, players that were league 1 world beaters are looking tired and poor. Warne is starting to raise questions with his team selection, Barkhuizen falling out of a favour being one. It has the feel of the Steve McClaren season where everything seemed certain, only to fall at the last hurdle. i see it the same way sadly. We simply aren't good enough at the moment compared to the other contenders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Premier ram Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 4 wins 2 draws i think will do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1of4 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 7 hours ago, Curtains said: Bristol. MK Dons. Burton. Forest Green . and Exeter If we carry on with current form we'll be lucky to get a win and a draw from these five games Curtains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Doesn’t matter. This team don’t have the fight to get top 6. We’ll finish 9th. Ted McMinn Football Genius 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie20 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Millenniumram said: Doesn’t matter. This team don’t have the fight to get top 6. We’ll finish 9th. Well there's a surprise. Just imagine if all Rams fans had your positivity - PP would be like a morgue on match days. Carnero, Dordogne-Ram and Tamworthram 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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