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How many wins to make playoffs


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Seems to me that it's pretty much a 3 way shoot out for 5th and 6th between us, Bolton and Posh.

At the top, clearly one of the current top 3 will miss out on automatic but TBH no idea which one.  Would prefer it to be Plymouth as I think they would be the easier playoff opponents out of the 3.

Below us, I don't think Wycombe or Pompey have enough to threaten for 5th or 6th, although either of them could end up 7th if they go on a run.

I think 13 points from 18 will be enough - 80 points.  4 wins and a draw from the next 5 will do it I think.  That would leave us not having to get anything against the Owls on the last day.

As I said before, it's time to go for it, win or bust, draws are no good to us now.

COYR!

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Could all change again Monday but it’s looking tough for Wycombe and Portsmouth now, especially given they’re playing each other as well. It’s looking like 3 teams for two spots. Peterborough have Ipswich and Barnsley but don’t be fooled, they have Barnsley last game of the season!! Barnsley will have nothing to play for and be thinking about the playoffs. Ipswich will be tricky for them but they’re at home and they have 3 games now they are easily capable of winning although one is a local Derby against Cambridge who seem to have picked up and are fighting for their lives.

The 22nd April looks as if it could be pivotal, Peterborough at home to Ipswich, Derby at home to Burton who we always make hard work of playing. 
 

Got to keep the pressure on by winning Monday, then I think we need at least 4 points from Bristol and Exeter. 

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The good thing now is if we get there, we’ll be getting there in good form. We will also just be starting a good run at this point, whereas Peterborough are now hoping to sustain good form having already had a great month or two, and these things don’t tend to last forever.

Pretty relaxed about it, if we don’t make it then it’s three extra weeks of squad planning.

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1 hour ago, nottingram said:

The good thing now is if we get there, we’ll be getting there in good form. We will also just be starting a good run at this point, whereas Peterborough are now hoping to sustain good form having already had a great month or two, and these things don’t tend to last forever.

Pretty relaxed about it, if we don’t make it then it’s three extra weeks of squad planning.

What if we continue our indifferent form but manage to pip Posh and hold off any challenge from Wycombe and Portsmouth thanks to them having a poor finish?

I'm trying (unsuccessfully I guess) not to be negative, just pointing out we could still reach the play offs without hitting good form. A scenario that could be viewed in a positive or negative light.

Edited by Tamworthram
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The bookies have us at 7/2 for promotion and Peterborough at 7-1 . They don’t make many mistakes . The only fly in the ointment could be the Florist striker at Burton Albion . Some of our fans say he is rubbish but how he would love to put the boot in at PP.

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1 hour ago, jimtastic56 said:

The bookies have us at 7/2 for promotion and Peterborough at 7-1 . They don’t make many mistakes . The only fly in the ointment could be the Florist striker at Burton Albion . Some of our fans say he is rubbish but how he would love to put the boot in at PP.

A friend of mine (Arsenal supporter but is football mad and will go to games even when the gunners aren't playing) was at the Burton game yesterday. He said he's never seen them work so hard this season (he is a regular there) and they deserved their win. You just know they'll at least match that effort when they play Derby.

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On 08/04/2023 at 15:20, Premier ram said:

3 wins , MK, Burton, Bristol

 2 draws Pompey, Sheff Wed

  1 defeat think Exeters our trickiest fixture

I've got a feeling the Exeter game could be easy. Well, they play Plymouth at home on the Saturday 15th and being their local rivals, form and league position goes out the window. Exeter will have a full house for that Devon Derby and will probably give 110% to beat the Pilgrims. Then going into another tough game 3 days later might be too much for them.

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I think that we will need 80 points to get into the play offs. So a further 4 wins and a draw. Bolton have favourable fixtures, so it will be a shootout between us and Peterborough. We should realistically win 4 of the next five, starting today. 
 

There are always weird results before the end of the season so the total might be less than expected and historically we have generally finished strongly when trying to get into the play offs.  

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Yesterday summed it all up really - superior play, bags of chances not taken in the 1st half, sucker punched in the 2nd half.  That script could apply to half the games this season - wins becoming draws or draws becoming losses.

The need for wins just became even more urgent.  Unless we can win the next 4 and get a point against the Owls then we are dependent on Bolton or Posh slipping up, and the form suggests that they might drop a few points but not many.

Unfortunately we are now behind both the other teams in terms of GD and GS too, so we really do need the points to be sure.

It is still possible though.

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Plenty of twists and turns yet. I think we can get to 79-80 points but that means winning 3 and drawing 2 of the last 5, or winning 4 losing 1. If Bolton and Posh can get 80-81 then fair play. 

It’s becoming difficult as we’re running out of games. Yesterday’s result was a hammer blow. We need minimum 4 points from next 2 away games, preferably 6.  Anything less than 4 points and the game could nearly be up.

Thankfully Ipswich slipped up so they’ll need something at Posh now. That’s our opportunity/hope, also Cambridge could be tricky given the rivalry there and Cambridge need the points, they’ve also found some form. I think Posh will get what they need on the last day from Barnsley who will be getting ready for the playoffs which means we’ll probably need something from Wednesday 😬

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On 09/04/2023 at 22:22, plymouthram said:

I've got a feeling the Exeter game could be easy. Well, they play Plymouth at home on the Saturday 15th and being their local rivals, form and league position goes out the window. Exeter will have a full house for that Devon Derby and will probably give 110% to beat the Pilgrims. Then going into another tough game 3 days later might be too much for them.

hope you are right mate, the MK result has already messed up my prediction, what do us fans know hey

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