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The Ukraine War


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26 minutes ago, Highgate said:

You can't take their pronouncements any more seriously than you could take their state media in my opinion. 

The problem is there is always the chance that they will do something else crazy, it can't be ruled out completely... especially if the situation gets more desperate from their perspective. 

A new president in Russia, who can claim the war had nothing to do with him in the first place and that continuing it is a mistake, is the only way out as far as I can see.  And it's far from certain that a new Russian president would take that attitude. 

True, it's that, or outright defeat that ushers a new president. But what lunatic will they put into power if/when Putin goes?

Russian imperialism will live on even if the regime is changed, it's just too ingrained into their culture, just like it is in the U.S no matter who is president. 

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8 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

True, it's that, or outright defeat that ushers a new president. But what lunatic will they put into power if/when Putin goes?

Russian imperialism will live on even if the regime is changed, it's just too ingrained into their culture, just like it is in the U.S no matter who is president. 

There seems to be signs of hope in the younger generation... that don't necessarily buy into the old narratives and that have no memory of the Cold War mindset.  It's too soon for that generation to be in power though, so the next in line will probably be somewhat unpleasant too.  

I haven't got any informed guesses as to who that may be. 

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6 hours ago, Highgate said:

There seems to be signs of hope in the younger generation... that don't necessarily buy into the old narratives and that have no memory of the Cold War mindset.  It's too soon for that generation to be in power though, so the next in line will probably be somewhat unpleasant too.  

I haven't got any informed guesses as to who that may be. 

My uniformed guess would be Anna Kournikova.

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21 hours ago, Highgate said:

There seems to be signs of hope in the younger generation... that don't necessarily buy into the old narratives and that have no memory of the Cold War mindset.  It's too soon for that generation to be in power though, so the next in line will probably be somewhat unpleasant too.  

I haven't got any informed guesses as to who that may be. 

The problem is a lot of these folks have left in recent years and espe the when the drafts started.

Edited by Ramarena
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Update from my previous post on here...

Kyiv was (A week or so ago) looking immaculate.  Spotlessly clean.  All public transport running like clockwork.  All shops, bars, restaurants etc, and workplaces up and running to full capacity.  "You wouldn't know there is a war on"!
However, when the nationwide Air raid alarm thingy goes off on the mobiles (Remember our practice fiasco a few months ago?), my son has been advised to "Not sleep through it next time"!  🙄

 

Out in the sticks... further East, where Kharkiv turns to woodland turns to minefields... it's a little less immaculate, as one might expect... but the clear up is now officially under way!  Hoorah!
Not perfect, as Halo Trust are now down half a million $$ worth of robotic digger, but hey, that's what robots are for, yeah?  And there's more on the way.

Better robots than people, eh?  

So far, so safe!  🤞

     

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  • 2 weeks later...

It's been quiet on the war front in the international media aside from Russia's continual missile attacks on civilian targets.

This has mostly been down to Russian defensive lines and significant numbers of newly mobilised Russian troops being pushed into battle, they have also had a year to dig in and have well and truly mined huge amounts of land, which has certainly slowed down Ukraines counter offensive.

We have also seen a big crackdown on Russian telegram bloggers, the biggest "victim" of this was Girkin. This means much less info is getting out into the public domain. Whilst Ukraine has tried to maintain the tight OPSEC they had in last years counteroffensive. 

However in the last few days there is promising news from two directions, primarily the area around Robotyne in the south, Urozhaine near Donetsk and the formation and expansion of a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro river.

Robotyne is the most interesting advance, as Russia's defences aren't as strong there and it would lead the Ukrainians towards Tokmak, which is a logistics hub for the entire Russian southern defence.

It would be tough going, but if Ukraine can take Robotyne and Tokmak, it would mean they have fire control over most of the south to Melitopol, which is almost at the coast. This in turn would have the potential to cut off that entire swath of land from Melitopol to Crimea, making it completely untenable for Russian forces. Wouldn't be surprised if this becomes the focus of this summer offensive. 

In other news, the Ruble was hit heavily yesterday dropping to 1 USD = 102 RUB leading the Russian central bank to raise interest rates by 3.5 BP to 12% this morning. This tamed the fall a bit, but it's trending down again. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-15/russia-hikes-rates-at-emergency-meeting-called-after-ruble-crash#xj4y7vzkg

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18 hours ago, The Last Post said:

 

Russia claiming one of it's Tu-22s was damaged...3rd party fire and theft 😁

The Tu-22 can travel at twice the speed of sound and has been used extensively by Russia to attack cities in Ukraine.

image.thumb.png.26151d75ad4e65e85b9307ecd5a901be.png

 

It’ll buff out!

Ukraine are claiming this is the plane that killed 30 and injured 70 people in a missile attack on an apartment building in Dnipro back in January.

Sadly they still have in the region of 50 of these planes in active service. 

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46 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

It’ll buff out!

Ukraine are claiming this is the plane that killed 30 and injured 70 people in a missile attack on an apartment building in Dnipro back in January.

Sadly they still have in the region of 50 of these planes in active service. 

I thought a small tin of T Cut will do the job 😁

We seem to be getting rather less news about the War on our normal channels, How's it looking where you look?

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3 hours ago, The Last Post said:

I thought a small tin of T Cut will do the job 😁

We seem to be getting rather less news about the War on our normal channels, How's it looking where you look?

Yes definitely less.

I think it’s a combination of Ukraine making slower progress than the west had expected/hyped up (not criticising them, more western media/politicians who hadn’t anticipated how heavily the Russians have dug in and mined areas, etc)

Also Putin is clamping down again and harder against Russian military bloggers.

Girkins arrest has been followed by the more realistic bloggers changing their tone and going heavily down the propaganda route. This means you can’t really get any useful info from them anymore, they are all parroting Kremlin talking points. Before you could get useful info but with a Russian slant, now it’s difficult.

The other factor is Ukraines continuing OPSEC success which limits info.

The only thing I’m seeing of note today is that Ukraine have pretty much taken all of Robotyne and Russia fears they will try and move on Novoprokopivka, so they have bought in 3 new regiments to fortify that area and stop a potential run through to Tokmak, which would be a big gain for Ukraine if they could get there.

There’s some speculation that these units are being drawn from the Kherson region and that area is now potentially weakened, but it’s debatable whether Ukraine has the manpower to take advantage in that area, without a substantial rotation.

Edited by Ramarena
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20 minutes ago, Gritstone Ram said:

If he has been killed it’s a bit of a school boy error. I’d have gone into hiding a long time ago based upon previous incidents relating to the Russian leadership.

Could've faked his own death, I suppose.

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