Relegation watch

[ziggyram59]

7 minutes ago, Jimbo Ram said:

We are, but we are in better form than most teams below us and a number of teams above us, the likes of Brizzle and Luton are slipping down the table and within touching distance. Keep playing the way we are and we will be fine....

I really hope your right JImbo Ram we need 6 points out of next 2 home games. Especially against Huddersfield can't afford to drop points against them. 

[Jimbo Ram]

17 minutes ago, ziggyram59 said:

I really hope your right JImbo Ram we need 6 points out of next 2 home games. Especially against Huddersfield can't afford to drop points against them. 

4 points would be fine. Just looking at Brizzles next 3 fixtures, away at Boro, away at Swansea and home to Bournemouth....they are definitely in the relegation mix on their current poor form....

[Rampage]

Wycombe are gone. Wendies, Brum and Rotherham are likely to provide at least one of the other two relegated teams. Rams. Coventry, Bristol City and Huddersfield are the next level who cannot afford to ease off or will be found in the bottom three. Nearly all these other teams are more likely to score a goal than us. If I was an opposing team manager my team talk would be  simple. Weather the first twenty minutes. Look to get a goal on the break and we have probably won the game. Attack down the wings when Rams wingbacks are forward and get two strong runners down the middle on the counter attack. I would target the other mid fielder than Shinnie or Knight when pressing.

[DCFC1388]

7 hours ago, ziggyram59 said:

Results went against us yesterday and were still in a relegation battle unfortunately. 

You say that but 1 second after the 3pm kickoffs we were 5points off relegation, come full time we are 5points off relegation.

[Van der MoodHoover]

23 hours ago, Rampage said:

Win the next two then chill for a week. The race to beat the drip is hitting up quite early imo.

Hope the drip can outpace them or he might be in for a beat of a beating..... ?

[jono]

7 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

4 points would be fine. Just looking at Brizzles next 3 fixtures, away at Boro, away at Swansea and home to Bournemouth....they are definitely in the relegation mix on their current poor form....

I’d always take 4 points from every 6 in our position.  At that rate, if you are below the middle, you are guaranteed to move up the table in steady steps. 

[jono]

3 hours ago, Rampage said:

Wycombe are gone. Wendies, Brum and Rotherham are likely to provide at least one of the other two relegated teams. Rams. Coventry, Bristol City and Huddersfield are the next level who cannot afford to ease off or will be found in the bottom three. Nearly all these other teams are more likely to score a goal than us. If I was an opposing team manager my team talk would be  simple. Weather the first twenty minutes. Look to get a goal on the break and we have probably won the game. Attack down the wings when Rams wingbacks are forward and get two strong runners down the middle on the counter attack. I would target the other mid fielder than Shinnie or Knight when pressing.

Right ... but...  there are quite a lot of targets there - saying hit them, doesn’t equate to a bullseye. You have to actually doit ! right now I back our lads to keep fighting and raise the ratio of goals scored per game. Waggies poor form in front of goal won’t go on forever, Lawrence still has something to give and I haven’t given up on Roberts on the strength of one iffy game.

 

[Spanish]

19 minutes ago, jono said:

I’d always take 4 points from every 6 in our position.  At that rate, if you are below the middle, you are guaranteed to move up the table in steady steps. 

But that is like saying staying unbeaten is ok which is not realistic.  Something like 6 points from every 4 games is quite sufficient.  You are right in that it isn't a cup game more of results over a sequence of games is the target

[DCFC1388]

Games until the end of March when we have an international break, I will include Bristol City purely down to the run they are on - 

Bristol C (15th - P31 - 39pts)

M'Boro (A)

Swansea (A)

Bournemouth (H)

QPR (H)

Birmingham (A)

Blackburn (A)

Rotherham (H)

Luton (16th - P30 - 37pts)

Millwall (H)

Sheff W (H)

N. Forest (A)

Norwich (A)

Rotherham (H) - Game in hand

Swansea (A)

Coventry (H)

Preston (A)

N. Forest (17th - P31 - 36pts)

Rotherham (A)

Derby (A)

Luton (H)

Watford (A)

Reading (H)

Norwich (H)

Brentford (A)

Huddersfield (18th - P31 - 36pts)

Derby (A)

Preston (A)

Birmingham (H)

Cardiff (H)

QPR (A)

Sheff W (A)

Derby (19th - P30 - 34pts)

Huddersfield (H)

N. Forest (H)

Cardiff (A)

Coventry (A)

Barnsley (A) - Game in hand

Millwall (H)

Brentford (H)

Stoke (A)

Coventry (20th - P31 - 34pts)

Swansea (A)

Blackburn (A)

M'Boro (H)

Derby (H)

Rotherham (A)

Luton (A)

Wycombe (H)

Birmingham (21st - P31 - 31pts)

Norwich (H)

QPR (H)

Huddersfield (A)

Barnsley (A)

Bristol C (H)

Reading (H)

Watford (A)

Rotherham (22nd - P29 - 29pts)

N. Forest (H)

Reading (H)

Sheff W (A)

Brentford (A)

Luton (A) - Game in hand

Coventry (H)

Watford (H)

Bristol C (A)

Sheff W (23rd - P30 - 28pts)

Brentford (A)

Luton (A)

Rotherham (H)

Reading (A)

Norwich (H)

Huddersfield (H)

Barnsley (A)

 

So looking at these games a lot of teams are playing each other so a lot of points will be dropped and a good run could pull teams away or pull teams into the mix. Big 3 games for Forest before they have 4 teams fighting for promotion. Coventry with 3 tough games but then 4 big games against teams around them. Birmingham, Rotherham & Sheff W have a tough set of fixtures.

We have to pick up a decent set of points from our 4 home games then pick up some on the road hopefully. From them 8 games I think 12pts+ would be a decent return. 46pts+ with 8 games to go should put us with a decent gap to the relegation zone.

[DCFC1388]

27 minutes ago, jono said:

I’d always take 4 points from every 6 in our position.  At that rate, if you are below the middle, you are guaranteed to move up the table in steady steps. 

4 out of every 9 points would give us 21 points which should be more than enough for safety with 55 overall

[Ram-Alf]

17 minutes ago, jono said:

Right ... but...  there are quite a lot of targets there - saying hit them, doesn’t equate to a bullseye. You have to actually doit ! right now I back our lads to keep fighting and raise the ratio of goals scored per game. Waggies poor form in front of goal won’t go on forever, Lawrence still has something to give and I haven’t given up on Roberts on the strength of one iffy game.

 

This season or next season, When was his last game, How many trees has he pulled up this season, When he eventually makes the squad he has to get in the team, Then comes match fitness, It's a long road back.

[jono]

6 minutes ago, James Pond said:

This season or next season, When was his last game, How many trees has he pulled up this season, When he eventually makes the squad he has to get in the team, Then comes match fitness, It's a long road back.

Not sure I agree. Tom is like the other Tom (Ince) no fan favourite or people pleaser but his injury is ankle, apparently on the mend .. who knows ?  a couple of weeks back in training ., ready for the half dozen games ? That could be crucial

He has numerous faults, don’t we all !  but at championship level he is a game changer, regardless of what he does .. they have to watch him closely. 

[Rampage]

1 hour ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Hope the drip can outpace them or he might be in for a beat of a beating..... ?

I do actually have a drip from my bathroom tap. We must flow more from defence to attack or we will be going down the plug hole to downstairs.

[Rab a dab doo]

There is nearly half the division who could potentially be dragged into the relegation battle. 

I think however the three teams who do go down will ultimately come from those who have been hovering around the bottom 6 or 7 most of season. 

Looking at it logically there are 2 places to be filled as Wycombe look doomed. Wednesday's situation also looks perilous . 

That leaves one last place open. 

Were (Derby) in that mix along with Birmingham, Coventry, Forest, Rotherham, Luton and Bristol City who lost 5 in row and sacked their manager.

So it going to be any 2 from 8 for to join Wycombe.

I were a betting man (and I not) my monies on Wednesday and Coventry. to join Wycombe 

[Curtains]

2 minutes ago, Rab a dab doo said:

There is nearly half the division who could potentially be dragged into the relegation battle. 

I think however the three teams who do go down will ultimately come from those who have been hovering around the bottom 6 or 7 most of season. 

Looking at it logically there are 2 places to be filled as Wycombe look doomed. Wednesday's situation also looks perilous . 

That leaves one last place open. 

Were (Derby) in that mix along with Birmingham, Coventry, Forest, Rotherham, Luton and Bristol City who lost 5 in row and sacked their manager.

So it going to be any 2 from 8 for to join Wycombe.

I were a betting man (and I not) my monies on Wednesday and Coventry. to join Wycombe 

Good post. 

This week is massive .

 

[Spanish]

59 minutes ago, Curtains said:

Good post. 

This week is massive .

 

not sure whether this holds water but we will see.  Every rolling set of 4 matches we need 5 points from 12 available.  16 matches would give us 54 points and safety?  On that basis we have 6 points from our last 3 matches.  So if we lose tonight we need to win our next game, draw then not lose the next, win and a we stay ahead of target.

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, Rab a dab doo said:

There is nearly half the division who could potentially be dragged into the relegation battle. 

I think however the three teams who do go down will ultimately come from those who have been hovering around the bottom 6 or 7 most of season. 

Looking at it logically there are 2 places to be filled as Wycombe look doomed. Wednesday's situation also looks perilous . 

That leaves one last place open. 

Were (Derby) in that mix along with Birmingham, Coventry, Forest, Rotherham, Luton and Bristol City who lost 5 in row and sacked their manager.

So it going to be any 2 from 8 for to join Wycombe.

I were a betting man (and I not) my monies on Wednesday and Coventry. to join Wycombe 

I don’t think Wedneday’s position looks significantly more perilous that the rest, they’re not cut adrift. Before Saturday, I would have said Birmingham looked in a far worse position both in terms of actual points and current form. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.

So, I agree, It will be an amazing achievement for Wycombe to escape so that leaves 2 places to avoid. Today (May all change by Saturday night) I’d say the risks are reasonably well represented by current league positions.

Very high risk: Wednesday, Rotherham and Birmingham

High risk: Coventry

Moderate to high risk: Derby

Moderate risk: Huddersfield, Forest, Luton and Bristol

Low risk: Preston
 

[Ram-Alf]

1 hour ago, Curtains said:

Good post. 

 

 

It would have been if Rab had included Huddersfield in the equation

[Spanish]

Birmingham19:00Norwich

bit of a surprise win last time out, was it a blip?  They are 6 feet from the edge so this is a big game against a team that they would not expect 3 points from

Rotherham19:45Nottm Forest

easy one for me, Florest to win.  Rovrum lost the last 3 but have games in hand (actual only points count though)

Wycombe19:45Reading

teetering on the edge.  Might as well add every team from Millwall down if their survival is a matter for conjecture

 

Derby play in one of the early games.  After winning we can all sit back for 45 minutes

Cov and Wendy play tomorrow. 

 

[Premier ram]

Cant help but feel that this match tonight is huge , 3pts and results in our favour and theres some clear daylight , lose and the pressure goes onto the big one on friday , with 3 away games on the bounce to follow these games are going to shape the rest of the season , good luck lads , COYR