G STAR RAM Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 11 hours ago, Albert said: The figure out of the UK are looking terrifying right now, this new strain is no joke. New hospitalisations now well above the first wave, patients in hospital will likely double the first wave in the coming weeks, and we're likely days away from the number of people on mechanical ventilation rising above the first wave too. Not good signs, particularly given deaths trend with these metrics. Let's hope the improvements in treatment in the last year are enough to save more lives than the first wave. Well we have been in lockdown for one week so surely with the 2 week lag cases should start dropping next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, BIllyD said: Somebody mentioned herd immunity earlier in the thread....it is based on modelling but the below predicts it could be as high as 40%. https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/jan/10/one-in-five-have-had-coronavirus-in-england-new-modelling-says That was me. But apparently people are sick of hearing about it and class it as a conspiracy theory that the numbers could be that high. I would say the percentage numbers are rising rapidly per week too, with infections at an estimated 1 million a week and vaccinations being done in 7 new hubs from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Well we have been in lockdown for one week so surely with the 2 week lag cases should start dropping next week? New cases surely will within the next 7-10 days - but that doesn't necessarily mean that the numbers currently hospitalised will follow suit immediately - likewise the grim death toll. I'm going to hazard a gruesome guess that we hit 2,000 reported deaths in a day at least once before the end of January, after which the number of deaths will steadily decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gee SCREAMER !! Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 hours ago, EtoileSportiveDeDerby said: Which site do you use ? BBC site says 1629 cases GOV.UK coronavirus update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, Norman said: That was me. But apparently people are sick of hearing about it and class it as a conspiracy theory that the numbers could be that high. I would say the percentage numbers are rising rapidly per week too, with infections at an estimated 1 million a week and vaccinations being done in 7 new hubs from today. There’s apparently an article with niel Ferguson saying london may be approaching herd immunity numbers soon with vaccines and infections , not read it so don’t know the full details of what he’s said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Is it possible to get herd immunity with all these mutant variants going around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-55281633 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, GboroRam said: Is it possible to get herd immunity with all these mutant variants going around? I would expect so, I think it's takes a while for the virus to mutate into a form where our antibodies wouldn't be effective. Also worth noting that the vaccine will be effective against the new new strains, interestingly that didn't get the same coverage as when there was a doubt it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said: Well we have been in lockdown for one week so surely with the 2 week lag cases should start dropping next week? Will it ? Doesn't it depend on how many people have left the hospital against how many have been admitted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 51 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Will it ? Doesn't it depend on how many people have left the hospital against how many have been admitted? Dont see why that would affect the number of cases, other than the fact that a sizeable number of people are actually catching it in hospital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Dont see why that would affect the number of cases, other than the fact that a sizeable number of people are actually catching it in hospital. Sorry I thought you were talking about the number of hospital cases as this was what the poster was quoting. Were you referring to the number of positive COVID cases throughout the country ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Looks like they're going to ban that socially distanced walk you can currently go on with a friend. Of course factories and offices still open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, alexxxxx said: Looks like they're going to ban that socially distanced walk you can currently go on with a friend. Of course factories and offices still open. Some people really don’t understand risk management. OK, so meeting a friend for a socially distanced walk may be a much lower risk than going to work but, in terms of the economy, personal finances and keeping businesses going it’s important try and keep people at work if we can but, we most of us can survive without meeting for a walk. Therefore, it makes sense to try to minimise/eliminate some of the lower risks even if you have to retain some of the higher risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexxxxx Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: Some people really don’t understand risk management. OK, so meeting a friend for a socially distanced walk may be a much lower risk than going to work but, in terms of the economy, personal finances and keeping businesses going it’s important try and keep people at work if we can but, we most of us can survive without meeting for a walk. Therefore, it makes sense to try to minimise/eliminate some of the lower risks even if you have to retain some of the higher risk. Oh I understand why they're doing it. They're removing as much as possible the ways you meet other people, I just wonder how much it will actually help and how much it is just showing that they're seen to be doing something. I find the whole outlook of this year utterly depressing when it's likely to be made illegal to go for walk with someone you don't live with for an indefinite length of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shuff264 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Very impressive https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-2-4-million-have-received-coronavirus-jab-in-uk-says-boris-johnson-12185070 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 41 minutes ago, alexxxxx said: Oh I understand why they're doing it. They're removing as much as possible the ways you meet other people, I just wonder how much it will actually help and how much it is just showing that they're seen to be doing something. I find the whole outlook of this year utterly depressing when it's likely to be made illegal to go for walk with someone you don't live with for an indefinite length of time. I agree it's depressing. But, I guess the point is, which I know you get, is that if they can reduce some of the lower level/impact risks it should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal is a Ram Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 24 minutes ago, Shuff264 said: Very impressive https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-2-4-million-have-received-coronavirus-jab-in-uk-says-boris-johnson-12185070 Just to warn you, 2.4 million is the number of jabs given - there are some that have had both jabs. The number of *people* is about 2m - which is still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: I agree it's depressing. But, I guess the point is, which I know you get, is that if they can reduce some of the lower level/impact risks it should help. If it’s only the low level impacts risks and we are carrying on with the high level transmission areas of life you have to ask is it value in the cost to people’s lives , I can tell you it’s so so so much easier to distance and keep safe having a game of golf with a mate on the weekend than it is trying to distance and keep safe on a building site all week and I can tell you that this is now really starting to have a big effect on my mental well being and physical fitness , I’m honestly getting pretty pissed off that it’s somehow ok for me to work in an environment that’s not safe , it’s ok for my wife to work in environment that’s not safe ( childcare ) it’s ok for my daughter to work in environment that’s not safe ( teacher) , but we can’t be trusted and have to be regulated to act responsibly and safely in low risk activities that may just keep us sane and healthy. we are grown up free people and this needs to stop now or be real and of some value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Animal is a Ram said: Just to warn you, 2.4 million is the number of jabs given - there are some that have had both jabs. The number of *people* is about 2m - which is still impressive. Oh dear are we going to find the reall reason for the changing and fluid ambiguous second jab spacing is going to be a very convenient numbers / stats water muddier are we ,,, ffs I’ve just about had a gut full of that carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, Archied said: If it’s only the low level impacts risks and we are carrying on with the high level transmission areas of life you have to ask is it value in the cost to people’s lives , I can tell you it’s so so so much easier to distance and keep safe having a game of golf with a mate on the weekend than it is trying to distance and keep safe on a building site all week and I can tell you that this is now really starting to have a big effect on my mental well being and physical fitness , I’m honestly getting pretty pissed off that it’s somehow ok for me to work in an environment that’s not safe , it’s ok for my wife to work in environment that’s not safe ( childcare ) it’s ok for my daughter to work in environment that’s not safe ( teacher) , but we can’t be trusted and have to be regulated to act responsibly and safely in low risk activities that may just keep us sane and healthy. we are grown up free people and this needs to stop now or be real and of some value The trouble is, we can't all be trusted to act responsibly and some people take the "free people" to mean they can do what they want. Part of the problem, although not in the scenario being discussed here, is the difficulty in consistency of interpretation. The recent exercise case at Foremark Reservoir and Calke Abbey are good examples. If the rules said stay local means don't drive to get your exercise it would be tougher but easier to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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