Coronavirus

[ramesses]

15 hours ago, maxjam said:

Very interesting article written by Toby Young generating a lot of hate on twitter right now....

https://thecritic.co.uk/has-the-government-over-reacted-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

In short he puts a monetary value on saving people with CV now, compares it to the figure that the NHS uses when it decides what new drugs and proceedures to fund and compares that to the fact that any resulting long term economic hardship will in all likelihood lead to a far greater number of deaths than CV will take.

Not sure I entirely agree but its an interesting side debate non-the-less.

 

I would have thought that anyone with a genuine interest in changing or improving the UK government strategy would be looking at lessons they might learn from governments that have made a better job of dealing with this crisis up to now.

As soon as they knew what was going on in China, countries like South Korea focused on rapidly developing and manufacturing adequate supplies of diagnostic tests, on developing various kinds of intensive contact tracing, and case isolation. The South Koreans also gave high priority to infection prevention and control in the general population with health care workers given highest priority.

The situation in all countries is fast moving – but a week ago the South Korean government strategy meant they hadn’t needed to be heavy handed and shut everything down but were able to make informed, strategic decisions about what to close down and what not to close down (and for how long).

The last time I checked the number of South Korean cases had plateaued and there were no reported cases of the virus among any of their health care workers.

Meanwhile the UK government is still making vague statements about ‘ramping up’ testing and making excuses about their failure to obtain and distribute adequate PPE for front line health care staff, let alone for social care staff and other key workers.

To quote the editor of The Lancet, it’s been a “national scandal”…“We shouldn’t be in this position. We knew in the last week of January that this was coming. The message from China was absolutely clear that a new virus with pandemic potential was hitting cities, people were being admitted to hospital, admitted to intensive care units and dying and the mortality was growing.  We knew that 11 weeks ago and then we wasted February when we could have acted - time when we could have ramped up testing, time when we could have got PPE ready and disseminated. We didn’t do it.”

[Mucker1884]

6 hours ago, RamNut said:

If they want to deter visitors to a particular location, then maybe don’t advertise it over Facebook?

 

 

But they're advertising the dangers, not the beauty.  

This should not tempt anyone with one iota of common sense to go and look at it during the lockdown.
This should not tempt anyone with one iota of common sense to go swimming in it when the weather improves and the restrictions are (hopefully) lifted.

Only stupid and/or ignorant people will read this message... on facebook, on this forum, or in any other medium... and think it a good idea to go there currently.

[Tamworthram]

6 hours ago, philmycocu said:

Know your facts first before posting

https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/local-news/derbyshire-police-criticism-george-osborne-4002920
 

Well done Derbyshire Police ? 

Never let the truth get in the way of criticising the police/authorities.

[Sith Happens]

5 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

But they're advertising the dangers, not the beauty.  

This should not tempt anyone with one iota of common sense to go and look at it during the lockdown.
This should not tempt anyone with one iota of common sense to go swimming in it when the weather improves and the restrictions are (hopefully) lifted.

Only stupid and/or ignorant people will read this message... on facebook, on this forum, or in any other medium... and think it a good idea to go there currently.

Well based on the actions of the british public in recent weeks it will probably become the UK's biggest tourist attraction over the coming weeks. ?

Nowt so stupid as folk....

[alexxxxx]

16 hours ago, maxjam said:

Very interesting article written by Toby Young generating a lot of hate on twitter right now....

https://thecritic.co.uk/has-the-government-over-reacted-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

In short he puts a monetary value on saving people with CV now, compares it to the figure that the NHS uses when it decides what new drugs and proceedures to fund and compares that to the fact that any resulting long term economic hardship will in all likelihood lead to a far greater number of deaths than CV will take.

Not sure I entirely agree but its an interesting side debate non-the-less.

 

Interesting analysis but overall it relies on the original modelled numbers being correct. All it would take is that one of the assumptions are incorrect and this very crude COBA falls apart. 

I guess you could apply the same analysis to other areas of government expenditure and it would fall apart. Terrorism prevention measures must cost hundreds of millions but no one would argue that its not money well spent. 

Ultimately the decisions are political and not wholly based on economic advice or by health advisors. 

[ramit]

11 hours ago, A Ram for All Seasons said:

I bought an empty property with cash in October. I dare say I have been plunged straight into negative equity, but the shares and other investments that I sold to fund the purchase are down by 30%+ since then. Don't know whether to laugh or cry.

We bought a house last year too, in Spain.  Friends who were staying in it while searching for a property to purchase are stuck in the area while they are waiting for their purchase to go through the now near paralyzed system.  The man's parents live in the area but have fled back to Iceland while this thing is going on, so my friends decided to move into their place in a hurry.  Spain is in lock down and they still have my keys and authorities are considering extending the period until sometime in May.  Interesting times.

[Van der MoodHoover]

2 hours ago, ramesses said:

I would have thought that anyone with a genuine interest in changing or improving the UK government strategy would be looking at lessons they might learn from governments that have made a better job of dealing with this crisis up to now.

As soon as they knew what was going on in China, countries like South Korea focused on rapidly developing and manufacturing adequate supplies of diagnostic tests, on developing various kinds of intensive contact tracing, and case isolation. The South Koreans also gave high priority to infection prevention and control in the general population with health care workers given highest priority.

The situation in all countries is fast moving – but a week ago the South Korean government strategy meant they hadn’t needed to be heavy handed and shut everything down but were able to make informed, strategic decisions about what to close down and what not to close down (and for how long).

The last time I checked the number of South Korean cases had plateaued and there were no reported cases of the virus among any of their health care workers.

Meanwhile the UK government is still making vague statements about ‘ramping up’ testing and making excuses about their failure to obtain and distribute adequate PPE for front line health care staff, let alone for social care staff and other key workers.

To quote the editor of The Lancet, it’s been a “national scandal”…“We shouldn’t be in this position. We knew in the last week of January that this was coming. The message from China was absolutely clear that a new virus with pandemic potential was hitting cities, people were being admitted to hospital, admitted to intensive care units and dying and the mortality was growing.  We knew that 11 weeks ago and then we wasted February when we could have acted - time when we could have ramped up testing, time when we could have got PPE ready and disseminated. We didn’t do it.”

probably took our lot those 4 weeks to come up with "blah blah, Protect the NHS, Save Lives..". Has to be a 3x3 beat slogan, that is imperative...

...and they have 80%-odd approval ratings, so in their minds eye they have done the right thing. 

[Stive Pesley]

15 hours ago, maxjam said:

I thought it was pretty interesting to see how much value the NHS puts into funding new drugs and proceedures (£30k per year of potential life) and how much treating CV is costing for per year of additional life (£500k).   He also discussed the potential recession we face and the increased poverty, violence and suicide rates that it will lead to - something that is regularly thrown at the Tories re. austerity.

He didn't mention anything about the mental or societal cost of inaction nor the fact that it would be political suicide for any government simply let nature take its course but I guess that wasn't the point of the article. 

I found it interesting anyway.  I don't have to agree with it or like him to see the value in the discussion.

Fair play to you for taking it at face value, and spending a bit of time considering the argument he puts forward. I don't think your kind are  his target audience though!

You're either supposed to react with "Nggg he is evil, how dare he suggest dead pensioners is a better outcome?! MONSTER!" or you react "Yes! He is right, dead pensioners why not? They are going to die anyway, and the economy is more important - screw you leftards trying to shut him down, I am now going to to suggest that it is YOUR free speech that should be curtailed for the sin of questioning his free speech ngggg!"

etc etc repeat til fade (while Toady counts his cash and laughs up his sleeve)

 

FWIW I think the main flaw in his argument is that he ignores the fact that GDP will drop considerably if we let hundreds of thousands die, and millions get sick and be off work anyway. So any fag packet sums he puts forward are automatically wrong

 

[ramit]

19 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

probably took our lot those 4 weeks to come up with "blah blah, Protect the NHS, Save Lives..". Has to be a 3x3 beat slogan, that is imperative...

...and they have 80%-odd approval ratings, so in their minds eye they have done the right thing. 

And we wonder why governments rarely learn from their mistakes, the citizen sheep rarely give them a reason to.

[maxjam]

Interesting, if slightly scary, data analysis of just how bad coronavirus is potentially going to get in the UK;

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-data-suggests-the-uk-is-on-course-for-many-thousands-of-deaths-11966517

I guess they aren't building all the temporary hospitals and mortuaries 'just in case'.

[Van der MoodHoover]

15 minutes ago, ramit said:

And we wonder why governments rarely learn from their mistakes, the citizen sheep rarely give them a reason to.

Interestingly, i have been reading of the historical parallels with WW2. There are some, but some important differences. The conservatives - in Churchill - initially had huge approval ratings around 1940 as the country was at risk of invasion. By 1943, when it appeared that the war would eventually most likely be won, there was much greater scrutiny of the role of conservative administrations in the 1930s - the depression, austerity, appeasement and that analysis - with a desire to "build something better" swept the Conservatives out in the next election.

That gave rise to the Labour post war government which launched the NHS - widely seen as its finest ever policy, but other important social policies such as National Insurance.

So there is a possibility that once Covid-19 appears beaten, there will be much greater critical analysis and scrutiny of 10 years of Conservative led administrations that got us here. Not just Boris' last few weeks - and he may end up as the fall guy.

However, the key difference this time is that the Labour Party currently has no experienced leader with gravitas that is seen as potential PM material.

 

Anyway - I will shut up. this is probably veering into the politics thread. Apologies mods.... ?

[ramit]

Russia sends plane packed with medical equipment to USA

Oh the horror ?

 

[Wolfie]

14 hours ago, philmycocu said:

My boss gave me the option of carry on working from home or voluntary furloughing on 80% for 2 months, I chose to carry on working, I'm either mad or a brown-nosing little creep? ?‍♂️ 

Obviously personal choice according to your own circumstances. I wish they'd just get on with it and furlough me, so I can spend more time with Miss Wolfie while she's not at school. Currently I'm either feeling guilty while I play with her when I should be working - and guilty when I'm working and she is getting bored. She's got educational worksheets etc but isn't getting much human interaction.

[Tamworthram]

14 hours ago, philmycocu said:

My boss gave me the option of carry on working from home or voluntary furloughing on 80% for 2 months, I chose to carry on working, I'm either mad or a brown-nosing little creep? ?‍♂️ 

I don’t think you’re either.

I’m sure that missing 20% will come in handy and, if you can carry on working (sadly not everyone can), it will probably be better for your mental health.

[Van der MoodHoover]

Now reading that all of the Edinburgh Festivals due to take place in August have been cancelled - first time in 70 years (since being founded in 1947). Unprecedented times indeed. 

[Tamworthram]

On 28/03/2020 at 21:37, uttoxram75 said:

My son lives in Singapore, they had an extreme lockdown early doors because of the proximity to China. It worked, very few fatalities but its all kicked off again because theres no immunity and restrictions were lifted to allow trade.

You can have it again, its dependent on your immunity system how resilient you are to it. Many have mild symptoms the second time but it can be fatal very quickly for some.

It was common knowledge in December, some governments started to provide PPE to doctors and nurses back then but we decided not to prepare for the worst.

 

 

 

 

How are things over in Singapore @uttoxram75? From the “official” figures I’ve seen it doesn’t seem to have kicked off again as feared? Just interested to see how their approach is performing.

[Gritstone Ram]

When are they going to put something decent on TV in the afternoon. I’m pissed off with Doctors and Judge Rinder.

[RamNut]

Ffs

563 more deaths in one day.

this is horrendous. 

[JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta]

It's going to get worse before it gets better by the looks of it.

I simply refuse to believe that China only had in the region of 3,000 deaths from this. They have fudged the published numbers so hard they might as well be discarded as irrelevant.

[ramit]

19 minutes ago, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

It's going to get worse before it gets better by the looks of it.

I simply refuse to believe that China only had in the region of 3,000 deaths from this. They have fudged the published numbers so hard they might as well be discarded as irrelevant.

China's death rate is reported 4,03%, the 12. highest globally.

Why single out China for scrutiny?  How about USA, reporting 2.15%, or Germany at 1.09%, or my beloved Iceland at the bottom of the list with 0.18%?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105914/coronavirus-death-rates-worldwide/