TigerTedd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, Tamworthram said: 18 game unbeaten run? That's going some. Jim Smith did it to get us to second. Come to think of it, it all started when he signed an experienced defender in mid season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuespachRam Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 On 22/01/2019 at 11:24, erathirea said: The business end of the season approaches, and with it, much fervent head scratching and armchair managing, scenario creating and high level arithmetic to work out who are the likely contenders for a playoff place. Let's start by looking at the table: Totally arbitrarily, I've cut it off at Stoke. Why Stoke? Well, they're within 10 points of the playoffs currently, got an interesting new manager, and the next team (Wednesday) aren't. That's more or less it. Given how many teams are in that "area", I can't see anyone below 15th having *any* chance of making the playoffs from this point. Turns out it wasn't all that arbitrary. Next, let's take a gander at some more "abstract" reasons for exclusion: Of the teams from 11th to 15th, I'm going to exclude Forest, Birmingham and QPR. The reasons for exclusion are basically that I don't believe them to be good enough (they've picked up 3, 2 and 2 points from their last 4 games respectively, for example). Stoke and Villa, despite similarly poor recent records... have good squads, and if any of those 5 can push themselves into contention, it's those 2. Now, let's analyse the 12 teams I've tipped as having a chance. Stoke - The next few games are crucial. They need to pick up points soon if they are going to have a realistic tilt at the playoffs, and after Preston their games against Hull (A) and West Brom (H) are massively important if they are going to challenge. I don't see them picking up points from either of those, though, and by then I think us and Boro will be out of sight. Villa - 3 of their next 4 games are against teams in the bottom 8, and the other is a home game against Sheff Utd. Villa's trouble is consistency (since Smith took over, they've only won 6/17), so I think a lot depends on those next few fixtures and *if* they can pick up 10-12 points from these 4 games, then they should make the playoffs. Blackburn - Next 3 home fixtures are against Hull, Bristol City and Middlesbrough, teams around them, and I think this is as good as this season will get for them. They've gone under the radar for a reason, and that key reason is goals. They're the only team in the top half with a negative goal difference. They've scored fewer than every top half team other than Boro and Bristol, who both have much better defences - Blackburn have got the worst defense in the top half. Generally a favourable fixture list over the second half of the season, but probably not good enough to make the most of it Swansea - Horrible fixture list. They've still got to go to Norwich, Leeds, Bristol City, Forest, West Brom and Blackburn, and also have to face us, Stoke and Boro... basically most of the top half. It's not even a "run" of bad games (or 'easier' games, for that matter), it's just consistent and will make it hard to get any momentum. Having said that, they're a good side, and the benefit of a fixture list like this, when chasing, is that the odd win will take points off their competitors - outside shout for playoffs. Hull - Speaking of momentum... is theirs going to fizzle out? There's always that one team that makes a late surge to challenge for the playoffs, but I think Hull's surge has come too early and they will be lucky to finish in the top half. Much was made of their winning run, but that featured games against Bolton, Brentford, Wednesday and Preston alongside the more impressive victory over Leeds. In other words, they'd have gone into that run of games hoping for 12-14 points, and came out with 18. On the flip side, their last 5 games of the season, if they are still in the mix? Boro (A), WBA (A), Sheff Utd (H), Swansea (A), Bristol C (H). Sorry Hull fans, can't see you hanging around. Bristol City - There's a reason they weren't tipped for promotion before the season started. February's run of games could see them drop out of the top half - Swansea, Blackburn, QPR, Birmingham, Norwich. *If* they can stay in touch, though, the run in is 'more favourable'... with a few exceptions. Us - I talked about this the other day- our remaining fixtures list is relatively kind. Couple of tricky away trips, and obviously the WBA and Hull home games look tricky, but there's no games coming up where i'm thinking "we'll be lucky to get a draw". Easily the kindest run in of the top 6. Could even, due to teams playing each other, be keeping more of an eye on 2nd than 7th. That WBA game, last day of the season... could be for 2nd. Boro - You know that run of fixtures we had where we played 4 of the top 5, and 6 of the top 9, in the space of a few games? WBA (A), Leeds (H), Sheff Utd (A), Blackburn (A). Entirely plausible that there'll be fewer than 2 goals across all 4 matches, knowing Pulis, but will they be able to score enough goals to stay in the playoffs. I think that'll be more about the teams below them, than them themselves. A recent draw with Milwall and loss to Wednesday does nothing to convince me otherwise. Their lack of goals is definitely a concern. Sheff Utd - Remaining Away Fixtures: Norwich, Villa, WBA, Wednesday (Derbys are always fun), Leeds, Preston, Birmingham, Hull, Stoke. Only two of those are not chasing the playoffs - and one of those is Wednesday. Their home fixture list is *much* kinder, and they're probably favourites to make the playoffs (in 6th), but I don't see them getting close enough to the top 2 again realistically. West Brom - Many tipping them for top 2, and with good reason. Though February could change that, with fixtures against Boro, Stoke, Forest, Villa, QPR and Sheff Utd, with Leeds waiting on 1st March.Fixtures are kinder after that, but will they lose too much ground by then? Norwich - A patchy run of form of late is not what they needed, particularly with Sheff Utd and Leeds in their next 2 games. Having said that (and for reasons I'll mention shortly), the fixture list opens up a little after that, and despite a final day trip to Villa, and also having to go to Boro and Stoke, I think they'll actually end up taking top spot. Leeds - Well. They've won one of the last 4, 'spygate' has happened, people are interested in their players. What will happen? Leeds are obviously no stranger to turbulence, but very rarely does a team benefit from it. At a time when they need to be focussed, with Norwich, Boro and Swansea coming up, how long the various issues rumble (and the results - Bielsa could leave, there could be a points deduction, or both, or neither). A favourable run in, yes, but they've got to get there in one piece. My (very casual) end of season predictions at this point: Norwich 92 Derby 90 WBA 84 Villa 82 Leeds 82 (assuming no points deduction) Sheff Utd /Swansea /Boro all on 80 points Top 9 to have pulled away by start of April. Feel free to bookmark this to point out *just* how wrong I was in 3 and a half months time! ? That looks nice...but to think we are going to get 16 more points than Leeds in 3 months is just craziness.. We have a really easy run in that is for sure, but no way on earth are we going unbeaten for the rest of the season....no way at all. We have the games available to finish in the play offs but no higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horizon Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Nice post mate, I like a bit of fact based optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Sheriff Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 90 PTS. really can’t see that. Games always seem more winnable on paper. stayimg positive though a 6th place finish and to win the play offs is my optimistic prediction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Where does Saffy Ram think we'll finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dimmu Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 On 22/01/2019 at 17:24, erathirea said: Totally arbitrarily, I've cut it off at Stoke. Why Stoke? Well, they're within 10 points of the playoffs currently, got an interesting new manager, and the next team (Wednesday) aren't. That's more or less it. Given how many teams are in that "area", I can't see anyone below 15th having *any* chance of making the playoffs from this point. Always good manners to add the original idea if it's not your own. https://www.infogol.net/blog/analysis/championship-promotion-race-assessed-23012019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harrowram Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 hours ago, BathRam72 said: Leeds have surprised me with keeping up the style and intensity with a relatively small squad. Bielsa's teams often start to feel the effects of attempting to keep up the intensity over a season. It will be interesting if they can do so. I personally think they will find the final 1/4 of the season particularly difficult. I hope so.Particularly when they are unable to spy on the opposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverurie Ram Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 What do points make?...........prizes. We'll win some, lose some and draw some and we'll end up with some points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, TigerTedd said: Jim Smith did it to get us to second. Come to think of it, it all started when he signed an experienced defender in mid season. Maybe so but still would be a massive achievement for a rookie manager in charge of an inconsistent team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plymouthram Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 My heart says second spot but my head says either 3rd, 4th or 5th. lets look at what we could get at best case scenario. PNE (a) Win based on us resting players in the cup this week. Hull (h) Win Based on their young playmaker and goalscorer going in this transfer window. Ipswich (a) Win, Wigan (h) Draw, they always get a result against us at home, Millwall (h) Win, Forest (a) Lose New manager will have them playing well by this fixture, Villa (a) Draw, Sheff Wed (h) Win, Stoke (h) Win, Swansea (a) Draw, Rotherham (H) Win, Brentford (a) Draw, Blackburn (a) Lose, Bolton (h) Win, Birmingham (a) Draw, QPR (h) Win, Bristol city (a) Draw and last game WBA (h) Win. Thats 2 defeats, 5 draws and 9 wins giving us 32 points and a total of 76 at the end of the season. Should be enough to keep us in the top 6 but what position, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 8 hours ago, Dimmu said: Always good manners to add the original idea if it's not your own. https://www.infogol.net/blog/analysis/championship-promotion-race-assessed-23012019 Remarkably it is possible to think about our promotion chances without having stumbled upon an obscure website that may also be discussing who will get promotion (amazing - what are the chances?), but from a totally different perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanish Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: Remarkably it is possible to think about our promotion chances without having stumbled upon an obscure website that may also be discussing who will get promotion (amazing - what are the chances?), but from a totally different perspective. Interesting to bookmark this given the expected position is 16th!!!!!! Also who is going to finish 7th? Am I just reading this wrong? probably a good test of whether expected goals has any influence Finishing 16th? this forum will burn irrespective of the transition year theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68 Guns Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Points for 6th place in the last 4 seasons 55(×3) and 1 season at 56. That would be some drop in form even by our recent standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 11 minutes ago, Spanish said: Interesting to bookmark this given the expected position is 16th!!!!!! Also who is going to finish 7th? Am I just reading this wrong? probably a good test of whether expected goals has any influence Finishing 16th? this forum will burn irrespective of the transition year theory Maybe we should have a thread keeping tabs of a sites SAx (expected stupid articles). How can we seriously have only created 16 chances that we would expect to score from in 28 matches? The theory must use the basic assumption that everybody has the same technical finishing ability. Let's be honest, if Wilson gets sight of goal within 20 yards unchallenged most of us now expect him to at least work the goalkeeper but I'm assuming this theory would not. Pointless stat made up by pointless people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Charlie Dram said: Points for 6th place in the last 4 seasons 55(×3) and 1 season at 56. That would be some drop in form even by our recent standards Eh?. The last 4 seasons have been 76, 80, 74 and 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68 Guns Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, Wolfie said: Eh?. The last 4 seasons have been 76, 80, 74 and 78 Supposed to say 16th. Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kernow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I had a go at the predictor thing just to see how feasible making the top two would actually be. I’d say I was overly kind towards us, only predicting us to lose twice more before the end of the season, but I tried to predict the other scores without any bias. I had us to finish on 89 points, which would be higher than we’ve ever achieved. We also finished on +27 GD, which again would be a tough ask seeing as we currently have +5 after 28 games. Even still, we finish 3rd, four points off automatic. I think unless we become absolutely unplayable, autos are a bit too far but the top six should be secured without any excuses. Forest finished 17th so it’s nice to see that normality was restored after extremely peculiar events earlier in the season which saw them in the top half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, G STAR RAM said: Maybe we should have a thread keeping tabs of a sites SAx (expected stupid articles). How can we seriously have only created 16 chances that we would expect to score from in 28 matches? The theory must use the basic assumption that everybody has the same technical finishing ability. Let's be honest, if Wilson gets sight of goal within 20 yards unchallenged most of us now expect him to at least work the goalkeeper but I'm assuming this theory would not. Pointless stat made up by pointless people. It does - more or less, it's the likelihood of the average player scoring from where that shot was taken. One goal sticks out in my memory, Bennett's goal from 3 yards out against Birmingham had an xG of around 0.3-0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LE_Ram Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 18 hours ago, Dimmu said: Always good manners to add the original idea if it's not your own. https://www.infogol.net/blog/analysis/championship-promotion-race-assessed-23012019 With the best will in the world to whoever wrote this article, it's absolute guff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dethorn Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1Leeds 46+38 98 2Derby 46+17 82 3Hull 46+26 81 4Norwich 46+18 81 5West Brom 46+20 76 6Sheffield Utd 46+16 76 7Birmingham 46+19 74 8Middlesbrough 46+11 73 9Blackburn 46+4 71 10Swansea 46+9 70 11Aston Villa 46+13 68 12Bristol City 46+0 64 13Nott'm Forest 46+6 61 14Stoke 46 -6 58 I just did us and let it calculate the rest - I thought I was a little pessimistic - please to see it got us into the top two - 2nd to 4th is pretty tight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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