ram59 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Harrowram said: I can't see anyone leaving voluntarily prior to the expiry of a lucrative contract.If it is true that Johnson is on £30k per week why would he leave when he can sit on the bench until May and continue to earn until the end of June or July?. Whoever agreed these contracts has done us no favours. What could easily happen is that another club take him on loan to the end of the season with the view of giving him a contract if successful. During this period they would pay part of his wages, maybe £10,000 a week. Although not totally clearing him off the books, it would release funds to spend elsewhere. The same goes with any player near the end of his contract. Jo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erathirea Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 I can understand people saying that 44 points from 18 games is a lot - that does include a win over West Brom on the last game of the season, where (in the league predictor I'd come up with) it would have left us both on 87 points (probably WBA on GD): Another way of looking at it is shorter term: so here's just the league fixtures until the end of February for the current top 6: There's *FIVE* occasions when teams *have* to take points off each other. All of Derby's 6 matches in the time period are definitely winnable. On paper the Forest trip will be trickiest, I think, although obviously Hull have won a few games lately. Average positions of the teams to be played in next month: Leeds- 13th, Norwich- 13th, Sheff Utd - 12th, WBA - 10th, Boro - 6th, Derby - 17th Leeds - I'd expect them to beat Rotherham and Bolton. Away to QPR and home to Swansea will be tricky, as will there home games against Norwich and their trip to Boro. Obviously it's hard to know exactly what'll happen with Leeds, but I'm going to say they'll get ~8 points from those games. Norwich - after 2 tricky games, I'd expect them to beat Ipswich, Preston, Bolton with little difficulty. I reckon about 4 points from the games against Leeds, Bristol City and Sheff Utd, giving 13 points. Sheff Utd - Should beat Bolton and Reading, but can't see them getting much joy from Norwich, Villa or West Brom away, or Boro at home. Maybe 2 points from those 4, so 8 in total. West Brom - Easiest game is home to Forest. Boro and Sheff Utd visiting, and they have to go to Stoke, QPR and Villa. Realistically they can't expect more than 10 points from that run of fixtures, and I think ~8 is more likely (losses to Villa and Stoke, draws against QPR and Boro). Boro - they'll be hard to beat, but this run of fixtures is horrible. I reckon their best chance of a win is home to QPR, and any other points are likely to come from shut outs. I don't think the'll manage this in every game, and so 7 points would be good for them. If those are *close* to what actually happens, it'll leave: Norwich - 66 points Leeds - 62 points Sheff Utd - 58 points West Brom - 55 points Boro - 54 points. So for Derby to be 2nd at the end of February, we'd need to win our next 6 games. That's a huge ask, but, conversely, if we could take 14 points (which i think should be the target) we'd be very much on the heels of the top 2. Give Leeds a points deduction, a few more suspensions, and Bielsa to leave, and voila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Seeing how we've played all of the current top 6 twice, with the exception of WBA - I was curious to see how our points gained looked relative to current league position. TOP 5: 9 Games Played 12 Points Gained 1.34 Points per game. 7TH-11TH: 5 Games Played 11 Points Gained 2.2 Points per game. 12TH-16TH: 5 Games Played 5 Points Gained 1 Point per game. 17TH-21ST: 5 Games Played 9 Points Gained 1.8 Points per game. BOTTOM 3: 4 Games Played 9 Points Gained 2.25 Points per game. Simply put, we haven't shown too much of a difference in results from mid-table, especially lower mid-table teams to be TOO confident in the fact that we've only got one game against a current top 6 team left. We'll need to see an improvement in consistency and composure if we're going to challenge - which I don't think comes as a surprise to anyone, but should be remembered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erathirea Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 36 minutes ago, SaintRam said: Seeing how we've played all of the current top 6 twice, with the exception of WBA - I was curious to see how our points gained looked relative to current league position. TOP 5: 9 Games Played 12 Points Gained 1.34 Points per game. 7TH-11TH: 5 Games Played 11 Points Gained 2.2 Points per game. 12TH-16TH: 5 Games Played 5 Points Gained 1 Point per game. 17TH-21ST: 5 Games Played 9 Points Gained 1.8 Points per game. BOTTOM 3: 4 Games Played 9 Points Gained 2.25 Points per game. Simply put, we haven't shown too much of a difference in results from mid-table, especially lower mid-table teams to be TOO confident in the fact that we've only got one game against a current top 6 team left. We'll need to see an improvement in consistency and composure if we're going to challenge - which I don't think comes as a surprise to anyone, but should be remembered. What that says to me is that there's no reason we shouldn't be targeting 2 points a game for the rest of the season. If we can get 2 points a game from 7-11, and 2 points a game from the bottom 8, then it's absolutely achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 32 minutes ago, erathirea said: What that says to me is that there's no reason we shouldn't be targeting 2 points a game for the rest of the season. If we can get 2 points a game from 7-11, and 2 points a game from the bottom 8, then it's absolutely achievable. I agree it's achievable. I'm just warning against overconfidence ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edtheram Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 We have the favorable games out of any of the top 6. We should still back ourselves for automatics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparkle Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 We have been weak defensively against certain types of teams and we only have one real goal scorer in Marriott ( Wilson obviously a big bonus) now if we could shore up defensively and have a real spare goalscorer to take over or join Marriott then maybe ( I don’t class waghorn as a centre forward ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archram Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 We’ve shown in individual games we can come from behind and win. Perhaps that’s what we’ll do in the league! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeedsCityRam Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Definite playoff contenders but we've no chance of finishing top 2. Whilst we've had some eye-catching results, we're too inconsistent to mount the kind of 10/15 match unbeaten run needed to get us into the top 2. Perversely the fact that we have 'easier' games to come will probably hinder us as its been the likes of Bolton, Millwall & Rotherham that we've struggled against - Leeds/Sheff Utd away aside, we've been better against the better teams. Our goal difference is currently +5 - by far the lowest of any of the top 6, despite not having been walloped at all this season. That's comparable with most sides between 7th & 13th and suggests that we've benefited from moments of individual brilliance rather than being a consistently strong side. I think we're slightly flattered by our current position to be blunt. Clearly I'd take promotion if it came this year but I think this side has some developing to do first before that's a realistic expectation. I would really hope people don't start revising their expectations upwards & then start agitating next time we get beat away at one of the division's 'lesser lights' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EssendonRam Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I hope you’re right but my rough calculations say we’re likely to be an unlucky third... FWIW, my guess: Norwich 92 Leeds 87 Derby Co 86 West Brom 83 Sheffield Utd 83 Boro 80 That’s assuming we win 11, draw 7 and lose none of our last 18 too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, EssendonRam said: I hope you’re right but my rough calculations say we’re likely to be an unlucky third... FWIW, my guess: Norwich 92 Leeds 87 Derby Co 86 West Brom 83 Sheffield Utd 83 Boro 80 That’s assuming we win 11, draw 7 and lose none of our last 18 too... I’ve got Leeds finishing mid table every time I’ve tried to predict the next 4 months, tried all sorts using 3-1 defeats, 4-0, even 5-2’s but they keep crashing out the top 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dethorn Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 hours ago, SaintRam said: Seeing how we've played all of the current top 6 twice, with the exception of WBA - I was curious to see how our points gained looked relative to current league position. TOP 5: 9 Games Played 12 Points Gained 1.34 Points per game. 7TH-11TH: 5 Games Played 11 Points Gained 2.2 Points per game. 12TH-16TH: 5 Games Played 5 Points Gained 1 Point per game. 17TH-21ST: 5 Games Played 9 Points Gained 1.8 Points per game. BOTTOM 3: 4 Games Played 9 Points Gained 2.25 Points per game. Simply put, we haven't shown too much of a difference in results from mid-table, especially lower mid-table teams to be TOO confident in the fact that we've only got one game against a current top 6 team left. We'll need to see an improvement in consistency and composure if we're going to challenge - which I don't think comes as a surprise to anyone, but should be remembered. Great bit of analysis there, and the old thing about teams at the bottom fighting for their life the nearer the end of the season gets will play against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dethorn Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I also almost fear to mention this but does the M O'N bounce down the road mean it is a little early to discount them ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Dethorn said: I also almost fear to mention this but does the M O'N bounce down the road mean it is a little early to discount them ? The only thing that will bounce down the A52 is their cheques Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 We ain’t consistent enough fo automatics, absolutely no chance of that unless something changes and we can start playing for 90 mins week in, week out. Sort our passing out and our individual skill will take us top 6 imo. Who we play doesn’t see, to matter, it’s all about whether we turn up, and whether we can find a man in a derby shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, Millenniumram said: We ain’t consistent enough fo automatics, absolutely no chance of that unless something changes and we can start playing for 90 mins week in, week out. Sort our passing out and our individual skill will take us top 6 imo. Who we play doesn’t see, to matter, it’s all about whether we turn up, and whether we can find a man in a derby shirt. We haven't been consistent enough so far but perhaps our inconsistency means we will become consistent in the second half of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said: We haven't been consistent enough so far but perhaps our inconsistency means we will become consistent in the second half of the season. Perhaps, only time will tell. My hope is having Cole in the changing room will make a difference, but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TibshelfRam Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This is a genuinely interesting thread. What I find fascinating this season is the openness of the division. I know that every year we say that the Championship is the most open, most entertaining league possibly in the world and I'd struggle to mount a counter argument (without any detailed knowledge of the Bulgarian fourth tier). But this season is more so than ever. Normally, with the odd exception, there is a runaway side. Take the last couple of years, for example... Last year: Wolves. Before that: Newcastle and Brighton both did. This year, this hasn't happened. Nobody seems to be dominating or really taking control. There seems to be a total lack of consistency at the top. Take West Brom, for example - they probably have the stand out squad, aside from maybe Stoke? But throughout the season I've been surprised by some really poor results from them. And yet, they're right up there. And I guess that is my point - yes, we are inconsistent, hopelessly so, but so is everyone. Nobody seems to be stringing great runs together. Leeds, for all the great results keep having a few stinkers - the same goes for Norwich. And neither side convinces me of their longevity: I have doubts about Leeds. As a side that has a tendency to burn out towards the latter end of the season, coupled with a manager whose teams tend to burn out towards the latter end of the season, they could do just that. Norwich have a lack of genuine quality, Pukki aside, and given that they weren't really fancied by many prior to the start of the season, I don't really know how good they are. But I just have this feeling that they might not keep it up. Personally, I think West Brom, and I've not spent enough time rigorously checking who has to play who because, after all, this is the most unpredictable league around, probably have that quality - the players who have been there, seen it, done it. And I think that that will get them over the line. I don't personally see a great deal of movement in the top 6. I think that the teams who are there now, will likely still be there come May. I look at most of the teams from 7th down and think that they wither have too much ground to make up, aren't great and will bottom out, or are too inconsistent. What I do feel, though, is that we are too far off the top 2. I don't think it's impossible, but I think it is asking a hell of a lot from a side that, let's face it, hasn't put a proper run together yet this season. At the start of the season I'd have taken the play offs. And I still would. For all those saying that we haven't got anyone proper left to play, I say: Rotherham, Millwall, Bolton. I think we've looked better against the better sides that have given us more room to play in, than those who sit back and try to contain us. I guess that my point is that I don't really have a point. Or a clue. And I don't think any of us do. This league is notoriously unpredictable and this season more so than ever. Similarly, this season, the Rams are unpredictable. I do know that the poor defeats may come back to bite us and the nature of how close this division is prove that it could've been there for the taking. But right now I'm enjoying the ride and I genuinely can't wait to see what happens next. Because it could be anything, literally anything. We're as likely to finish 2nd as we are to finish 15th, genuinely. I mean, this is the Championship, after all, and we are Derby County. And so, whilst we've learned to know that it's the hope that kills you, it's also the hope that keeps you going. And for the record, I think we'll finish 5th, with 80 points. Which is the kind of contradiction to the rest of my post that makes this all pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lukedcfc Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Our fixtures are kind, top 6 should be a formality, providing we don't get injuries to our best players. Dark horse are hull, they have a lot of momentum and have some good players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tamworthram Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 hours ago, EssendonRam said: I hope you’re right but my rough calculations say we’re likely to be an unlucky third... FWIW, my guess: Norwich 92 Leeds 87 Derby Co 86 West Brom 83 Sheffield Utd 83 Boro 80 That’s assuming we win 11, draw 7 and lose none of our last 18 too... 18 game unbeaten run? That's going some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.