The playoff contenders

[ramsbottom]

On 22/01/2019 at 16:24, erathirea said:

The business end of the season approaches, and with it, much fervent head scratching and armchair managing, scenario creating and high level arithmetic to work out who are the likely contenders for a playoff place.

Let's start by looking at the table:

Totally arbitrarily, I've cut it off at Stoke. Why Stoke? Well, they're within 10 points of the playoffs currently, got an interesting new manager, and the next team (Wednesday) aren't. That's more or less it. Given how many teams are in that "area", I can't see anyone below 15th having *any* chance of making the playoffs from this point.

Turns out it wasn't all that arbitrary.

Next, let's take a gander at some more "abstract" reasons for exclusion:

Of the teams from 11th to 15th, I'm going to exclude Forest, Birmingham and QPR. The reasons for exclusion are basically that I don't believe them to be good enough (they've picked up 3, 2 and 2 points from their last 4 games respectively, for example). Stoke and Villa, despite similarly poor recent records... have good squads, and if any of those 5 can push themselves into contention, it's those 2.

Now, let's analyse the 12 teams I've tipped as having a chance.

Stoke - The next few games are crucial. They need to pick up points soon if they are going to have a realistic tilt at the playoffs, and after Preston their games against Hull (A) and West Brom (H) are massively important if they are going to challenge. I don't see them picking up points from either of those, though, and by then I think us and Boro will be out of sight.

Villa - 3 of their next 4 games are against teams in the bottom 8, and the other is a home game against Sheff Utd. Villa's trouble is consistency (since Smith took over, they've only won 6/17), so I think a lot depends on those next few fixtures and *if* they can pick up 10-12 points from these 4 games, then they should make the playoffs.

Blackburn - Next 3 home fixtures are against Hull, Bristol City and Middlesbrough, teams around them, and I think this is as good as this season will get for them. They've gone under the radar for a reason, and that key reason is goals. They're the only team in the top half with a negative goal difference. They've scored fewer than every top half team other than Boro and Bristol, who both have much better defences  - Blackburn have got the worst defense in the top half. Generally a favourable fixture list over the second half of the season, but probably not good enough to make the most of it

Swansea - Horrible fixture list. They've still got to go to Norwich, Leeds, Bristol City, Forest, West Brom and Blackburn, and also have to face us, Stoke and Boro... basically most of the top half. It's not even a "run" of bad games (or 'easier' games, for that matter), it's just consistent and will make it hard to get any momentum. Having said that, they're a good side, and the benefit of a fixture list like this, when chasing, is that the odd win will take points off their competitors - outside shout for playoffs.

Hull - Speaking of momentum... is theirs going to fizzle out? There's always that one team that makes a late surge to challenge for the playoffs, but I think Hull's surge has come too early and they will be lucky to finish in the top half. Much was made of their winning run, but that featured games against Bolton, Brentford, Wednesday and Preston alongside the more impressive victory over Leeds. In other words, they'd have gone into that run of games hoping for 12-14 points, and came out with 18. On the flip side, their last 5 games of the season, if they are still in the mix? Boro (A), WBA (A), Sheff Utd (H), Swansea (A), Bristol C (H). Sorry Hull fans, can't see you hanging around.

Bristol City - There's a reason they weren't tipped for promotion before the season started. February's run of games could see them drop out of the top half - Swansea, Blackburn, QPR, Birmingham, Norwich. *If* they can stay in touch, though, the run in is 'more favourable'... with a few exceptions.

Us - I talked about this the other day- our remaining fixtures list is relatively kind. Couple of tricky away trips, and obviously the WBA and Hull home games look tricky, but there's no games coming up where i'm thinking "we'll be lucky to get a draw". Easily the kindest run in of the top 6. Could even, due to teams playing each other, be keeping more of an eye on 2nd than 7th. That WBA game, last day of the season... could be for 2nd.

Boro - You know that run of fixtures we had where we played 4 of the top 5, and 6 of the top 9, in the space of a few games? WBA (A), Leeds (H), Sheff Utd (A), Blackburn (A). Entirely plausible that there'll be fewer than 2 goals across all 4 matches, knowing Pulis, but will they be able to score enough goals to stay in the playoffs. I think that'll be more about the teams below them, than them themselves. A recent draw with Milwall and loss to Wednesday does nothing to convince me otherwise. Their lack of goals is definitely a concern.

Sheff Utd - Remaining Away Fixtures: Norwich, Villa, WBA, Wednesday (Derbys are always fun), Leeds, Preston, Birmingham, Hull, Stoke. Only two of those are not chasing the playoffs - and one of those is Wednesday. Their home fixture list is *much* kinder, and they're probably favourites to make the playoffs (in 6th), but I don't see them getting close enough to the top 2 again realistically.

West Brom - Many tipping them for top 2, and with good reason. Though February could change that, with fixtures against Boro, Stoke, Forest, Villa, QPR and Sheff Utd, with Leeds waiting on 1st March.Fixtures are kinder after that, but will they lose too much ground by then?

Norwich - A patchy run of form of late is not what they needed, particularly with Sheff Utd and Leeds in their next 2 games. Having said that (and for reasons I'll mention shortly), the fixture list opens up a little after that, and despite a final day trip to Villa, and also having to go to Boro and Stoke, I think they'll actually end up taking top spot.

Leeds - Well. They've won one of the last 4, 'spygate' has happened, people are interested in their players. What will happen? Leeds are obviously no stranger to turbulence, but very rarely does a team benefit from it. At a time when they need to be focussed, with Norwich, Boro and Swansea coming up, how long the various issues rumble (and the results - Bielsa could leave, there could be a points deduction, or both, or neither). A favourable run in, yes, but they've got to get there in one piece.

My (very casual) end of season predictions at this point:

Norwich 92

Derby 90

WBA 84

Villa 82

Leeds 82 (assuming no points deduction)

Sheff Utd /Swansea /Boro all on 80 points

 

Top 9 to have pulled away by start of April.

 

Feel free to bookmark this to point out *just* how wrong I was in 3 and a half months time! ?

 

on paper we do have the easier fixtures but our better performances have come against teams who are prepared to attack us.  Therefore facing teams further down who'll happily take a scrappy 0-0 could prove to be difficult for us to break down.  If we were to get in the top two I'll be obviously be happier than a Forest fan on giro day but I'd be more than happy with 6th.  

[erathirea]

Gotta say, big fan of all the people quoting my posts that were ridiculously too long in the first place - really keeps the place clean!

[therealhantsram]

I think everyone is likely overestimating how many points are required for 2nd place this year. Under Jim Smith we went up on 2nd with only 79 points. I think there might be a similar low points total for 2nd this season. Everyone is sooo inconsistent. 

80 points may well be enough. 

[Marriot Ram99]

1 minute ago, therealhantsram said:

I think everyone is likely overestimating how many points are required for 2nd place this year. Under Jim Smith we went up on 2nd with only 79 points. I think there might be a similar low points total for 2nd this season. Everyone is sooo inconsistent. 

80 points may well be enough. 

I reckon 84 points should be just about enough , we can get that but we would have to get very lucky with injuries, Cole would have to turn out a great signing to sort our defence out, and we will need maximum points in our next 4 games. So it's very unlikely but not impossible.