Jourdan

2 hours ago, LeedsCityRam said:

Textbook 'nothing to see here folks' reply this

To recap - I've provided a summary of Warne's record against sides in both halves of the table to get some detail behind the 4 losses in 25 games stat. This clearly shows the vast majority of his points are won against lower half teams & that this is flattering his record.

In reply, you've;

• Reacted with a laughing emoji to my post - after all, what kind of idiot uses logic & stats to back up his argument?!!
• Disingenuously missed the point about record v top half teams compared to bottom half teams. I did clearly mention in my post you might expect a better record against lesser sides. The point however is would you expect a team looking to finish top 6 to average less than 1 point a game against top half teams? That's relegation form but then you probably realised that awkward truth
• Suggested I might be 'starting to say that our head to head record against the top 6' will determine whether we make top 6. Which I didn't say & clearly didn't mean. Nice strawman though

For the avoidance of doubt, if we get a result at Plymouth Tuesday night I will a) be delighted & b) it may start to make me question my impression of Warne & his managerial ability. This is how to use evidence to support a position - in direct contrast to your desperate attempts to obfuscate/belittle opinions that differ to yours because you backed Warne from Day 1 & now your ego is very much attached to that position.

I don’t get this argument. It’s nothing unusual to have a stronger record v weaker opposition. In fact, it’s what the majority of successful campaigns are built upon. See @Brailsford Ram’s previous post.

Three points are three points. You don’t get any extra for beating the team in 3rd than you do for beating the team in 23rd.

It’s also especially difficult to understand because all of our games against top opposition have been decided by fine margins. One or two mistakes can make the difference. Sometimes we have fallen on the wrong side of it and sometimes on the right side. That’s football.

If we had been routinely well beaten by top sides, fair enough, it may point to an alarming pattern. But across the season, many games we’ve had have been competitive and could have gone either way, with wins you could argue we didn’t deserve and losses we didn’t deserve and so on.

It could be something, it could be nothing. We could lose v Plymouth but then beat Ipswich and Peterborough. That’s been the nature of our season.

Also, when it comes to the play-offs, we all know that what happens previously in the league goes out of the window and has little to no bearing. Everyone describes it as unpredictable and a lottery for that exact reason.

As long as we finish in the top six, we have as good a chance as anyone. Most posters are saying that the time to criticise Warne is when that doesn’t happen.

Given his track record, if it does not happen this year, there is still cause to feel confident we’ll come back and give it a good go next season. 

3 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

Good post and I gave you a like. When you put it like that, it’s a whole lot more comforting. However, in the interests of balance and to keep our feet on the ground, if, on Tuesday, we lose at Plymouth (quite possible) and Wycombe win at home against Fleetwood (more than probable) they are only 4 points behind but with a game in hand. Obviously if they win that game in hand then the gap is a very uncomfortable 1 point.

Six more wins sounds like enough but we’ll need to win probably at least a couple away from home. I know managers don’t do it (or say they don’t, they quite rightly would say they target every game for a win), but we probably need to be targeting home wins against Fleetwood, Forest Green and Burton (Ipswich and Portsmouth will be tough) and Oxford, Forest Green and Bristol or Exeter away. Wycombe would then need to win 8. They have 5 relative easy home games so they’ll need to pick up 3 on the road (Burton, Morecambe and Cambridge?). 
 

The next two weeks will be interesting as Wycombe play their game in hand the week after next. If things done go well I rather fear a very nervous last day when we play at Wednesday and Wycombe play at Portsmouth. Strong opposition for both of us but neither are likely to have anything to play for by then.

I’ll keep the faith and, as you say, now is not the time to start slagging off either PW or the players. 

I am not saying Wycombe can’t catch us. This is football and anything can happen. All four teams in the play-offs still have work to do. Look at Bolton, for instance. They have 10 games left and they are only two points better off than us.

Wycombe are in a similar position to where we were in relation to Plymouth six games ago. We were already looking at our fixtures and crossing off the routine home wins and anticipating the other team would wobble. That didn’t quite turn out as we expected. Sometimes the old adage one game at a time rings very true.

We are going to lose games and drop points between now and the end of the season but so too will Wycombe and the two or three others queuing up.

I just think it’s no time to panic. I would say there are still 8 very winnable games for us and 4 games that may not be favourable for us but will come down to which team turns up on the day and if that’s us, we stand a good chance.

I wouldn’t write us off yet.

Plymouth 1-2 Derby

McGoldrick FRGS

7 hours ago, i-Ram said:

Still don’t think Warne has worked out what his best team is, what each players best position is, or what formation to play.  Our recent form is troubling, and the Manager is not convincing me he can walk his talk.

Over the last 12 league games, we have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 2. Yes, 8 points in our last 6 is probably 4-6 points worse than many expected, but hardly troubling.

I think bar probably two positions - left back and left winger - the team is largely set in stone. Bird’s injury has obviously unsettled things mind you. Similarly, we play a version of 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 for the majority of games.

The most games we have gone without a win this season is three and that’s not recent, so I don’t see great cause for concern yet.

Criticism like this seems premature. If we lose v Plymouth and Oxford and don’t beat Fleetwood and put our spot in the top six in danger, then fair enough. It’s a sustained poor run of form and Warne will have to answer for that.

But as it is we’ve lost four times in 25 league games and yet the manager is not convincing you? I wonder if he’s simply fighting a losing battle.

McGee

Rooney - Cashin - Davies - Roberts

White - Knight - Sibley

Dobbin - Collins - Barkhuizen

Imagine this was the line up today and five or six key players were rested and we drew 0-0 or lost 0-1.

Would the fans be sympathetic? Quite the opposite.

I don’t think Warne can really win in this situation. I certainly don’t blame him for playing as strong a line up as possible.

9 minutes ago, Rich84 said:

I agree, and have said previously, we look tired, so why aren't we using the bench effectively? 

Uou can change half of the outfield players during the match, but we seem reluctant to make changes, and certainly don't make them early enough IMO

I guess the obvious answer to that is that certain players have earned the manager’s trust.

Wildsmith, Cashin, Forsyth, Smith, Hourihane, McGoldrick are all players we would love to rest from time to time but are their replacements going to offer the same quality?

You can have players and other options available, but if you feel like the team will suffer by changing things up, logically you will try to stick with what has proven to work.

50 minutes ago, Kokosnuss said:

?

I don't want him back, I've never said or even implied that I do.

Just pointing out the reality of our situation - I'm applying the same logic to our games as I did in earlier games, I'm being consistent.

...but the massive level of hypocrisy and b******* still needs calling out occasionally.

Hectic schedule? Under Warne, didn’t we have six away games in 28 days and 20+ games from October through to the beginning of January?

Injuries? Bird and Chester are currently out with what have been long term injuries. Knight, Sibley and McGoldrick have all had spells out injured under Warne. Forsyth has had to fill in where Davies, Chester and Stearman couldn’t. We’ve been playing midfielders at full back for the majority of the season.

Fitness and familiarity? Warne has had build all of that while having a similarly tough schedule.

No-one has said Warne is the next Clough or Sir Alex and no-one has said he can’t be outsmarted or outmanoeuvred. No-one is holding him to a different standard either.

Just two losses since October and just four in 25 league games overall tends to give you a bit of leeway.

6 minutes ago, sage said:

You're missing the point. By not controlling games, we aren't keeping possession  we aren't reducing our running.

Tired 

In our two most recent losses, we had more possession. 60-40% and 57-43%.

We lost because we defended poorly and made mistakes that were punished.

I don’t think it’s down to the style. It’s a small squad with a good core but without the depth to make wholesale changes and maintain quality levels.

You can see that with Rooney coming in for Smith at RB but Smith still having to play.

8 minutes ago, sage said:

It is a problem, we don't manage games. We can save our legs over a long season, but don't.

But can we?

Do we have the quality from the bench to ‘save our legs’?

Would you trust McGee to step in for Wildsmith?

Would you trust White or Thompson to step in for Hourihane?

Would you trust Rooney or Oduroh to step in for Smith?

Would you trust Collins to step in for McGoldrick?

The only real area where we have any reasonable depth is on the wing, but wingers by their nature are inconsistent.

I don’t think it’s as easy as you make it sound.

37 minutes ago, sage said:

The style is playing a part. We never control a game, even when 2 or 3 up, we don't then shut up shop. 

In the league, we’ve won 11 out of 14 under Warne when scoring first.

We lost v Port Vale and drew v Burton and Shrewsbury.

Perhaps it’s less about control and more about teams punishing mistakes?

Shrewsbury did that today. Barnsley did it last week. Wycombe did it a few weeks back.

This group is a good group but it’s a slog of a season and at any level, there is only so much you can get away with.

We’ve been sloppy, but it happens to even the very best over a long season.

I don’t think the style is the issue. It’s the make up of the squad, the injuries, the restrictions we are under, and the sheer number of games we have played.

We have played 11 cup games this season. That’s almost a quarter of a League One season. It’s bound to take its toll.

We have a group of 13-14 that have been playing game in, game out for 7-8 months. 3-4 of those have been playing exclusively out of position. It’s also bound to take its toll.

The depth and quality of depth hasn’t been there for us to take the burden from the core group.

Imagine if Forsyth and Cashin could have been rotated out for Davies, Chester or Stearman. That hasn’t really been an option for the majority of the season.

If only we could give Wildsmith, Smith, Hourihane, Mendez Laing and McGoldrick a break, you could say. The alternatives are McGee or Loach, Oduroh or Rooney, White or Thompson, Springett, and of course Collins - all of whom are either too inferior or too inexperienced to rely on.

If we finish in the play-offs, we’ll have done very well all things considered.

Anyone who is worried by current form, think back to the magic 80.

Wycombe need 26 points, Shrewsbury need 28 points, Peterborough and Portsmouth need 29 points. It’s a minimum of two points per game across 12-13 games and 7-8 wins minimum. If any of the four are to overtake us, it will require something special.

We have to forget about the top two. I can understand the frustration because we have wobbled at a time when we needed to apply some pressure.

If we’re honest, it was never really on. Sheff Wed are breaking records and Plymouth have set the pace since very early on. We had to be absolutely relentless. That was never really likely with a squad of 21-22, the majority of whom have played 30-40 games with a possible 15 more to go.

We’re at a stage now where we need to hold our nerve. It‘s that simple. We have 12 games to go and need six wins to guarantee a play off place, possibly fewer if the chasing pack stutter.

We’re having a wobble. There’s no getting away from that. But prior to that we had won six in a row and had gone 15 games unbeaten. You have to take the rough with the smooth and realise the standard we had set was an unsustainable one. Under normal circumstances, we would have added 3-4 more to the squad and avoided any hiccups.

March going into April will probably be our toughest run of games all season. Three away games in five and Plymouth, Ipswich and Peterborough all to play. Brace yourselves because we have to be prepared for a bit more suffering.

Ultimately though I don’t think now is the time to dig out Warne or the players. Fair enough if we end up in 7th or fair enough if we ship 3 to Ipswich or Barnsley and don’t do ourselves justice in the play-offs.

But as it is, the manager and players are giving everything in difficult circumstances. I wish it was more straightforward but the end goal is still very much in our hands and the team will need our support to get over the line.

On 28/02/2023 at 23:04, Zag zig said:

@Jourdan or @plymouthram any hotels nearby you would recommend?

Hard to say. I don’t tend to stay in hotels. More of an Airbnb man myself.

I’ve stayed in two hotels in the area. One of them is Leonardo (formerly the Jury’s Inn) which is very central. It’s a short walk to Drake Circus, the Barbican and Sutton Harbour. A decent choice if you are looking for something relatively basic and relatively cheap and in a good location.

I’ve also stayed at Hotel Endsleigh. This is a country hotel in Milton Abbot near Tavistock and roughly 45 minutes from Plymouth. This is really nice if you want to make a proper getaway of it and have the big budget to match.

Sorry that I can’t add anything else.

Derby 1-0 Shrewsbury

Mendez Laing FRGS

Just to add some more insight into Plymouth for those travelling.

I would say set off early so you arrive with plenty of time and have a half day to explore a little.

Three areas of interest if you want a full day out are the Hoe, the Barbican, and Royal William Yard. Bear in mind none of these spots are near the stadium, but they are a bit more scenic than Mutley Plain.

If you go to the Hoe, there is a nice pub called The Waterfront with a terrace and sea views. There are other places on the Hoe but this is my favourite.

If you go to the Barbican, there are some highly rated fish and chip shops such as Harbourside and many places to eat and drink with a view of Sutton Harbour.

One favourite spot of mine is Alfresco, a food truck on the Barbican run by Italian locals who serve great hot chocolate and coffee. It’s nice to grab a hot drink and walk along the waterfront.

If you go to Royal William Yard, it’s again out of the centre but there are many chain bars and restaurants, many of which have outdoor seating. It’s also in a beautiful setting - right on the water and a repurposed naval base.

If you want to enjoy a bit of nature, you can take the Cremyll ferry to Mount Edgcumbe or stop off at Saltram. A beach that is fairly central to Plymouth is Bovisand Beach.

Any questions or recommendations needed, please ask away. 

Derby 1-0 Cheltenham

McGoldrick FRGS

Yesterday was a desperately poor result but the way I see it is that we’d rather be seeing those results now than in May. It’s something we can recover from.

We haven’t lost ground on Plymouth and Wycombe haven’t gained ground on us. We are very much where we deserve to be and likely to end up being - in the playoffs. Whether we finish 3rd or 6th is immaterial.

All teams have games where every slip, trip, bobble, wobble, bounce and deflection goes in the opposition’s favour and every mistake gets punished. It was just one particularly bad day at the office. We have had four of those in 23 league games under Warne, so there’s no need to panic.

It’s all very well saying Warne needs to correct things or learn from defeats, but what more can he really do?

We have to remember that Warne is working with what he’s got - a very small squad with good quality but one that is having to rely on players playing out of position and young players to fill gaps to function even slightly.

There is no use in getting worked up and there is no use coming down like a hammer on Warne and the team.

I am sure Warne would love a colossus in midfield and I am sure Warne would love to rest 5-6 players but he doesn’t have that luxury. He is doing his best to troubleshoot from within.

We have 14 games to go and 9-10 of them look very winnable. The scaremongering after two rare defeats seems extreme.

Six points at PP this week and we can quickly move on from this.

6 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

The Bodleian Library is worth a look - open to the public and in the centre, in the pedestrian bit i think.

We couldn’t get inside last Saturday. All of the tours had sold out.

We really liked going to the Turf Tavern. A pub tucked away near the Bridge of Sighs.

There is also a rooftop bar at the top of the Ashmolean.

6 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

Hey guys if maths is right I think we got 1600 total and 220 remaining does that make it around 1200 pr 1300 then been sold so far.

 

 

 

If the site is correct, we are closing in on 1500.

When you consider it’s a Tuesday night, on TV, and a good 4-5 hours down the motorway, that’s an excellent turnout.

7 hours ago, Anag Ram said:

I have two tickets.

I have little idea where and I’ve not heard back from the mate who said we should go.

Being a fan is strange like that ?

Well thankfully ticket sales slowed and good job too.

The home areas are sold out.

Barnsley 1-2 Derby

Hourihane FRGS

@SK47, did you have any luck getting tickets?

There are about 150 tickets left and plenty of seats together in block 21.