Relegation watch

[Jase116]

I think people are getting nervous because ( let’s be fair) we thought we could avoid defeat from the likes of cov, Rotherham etc, which would have kept the distance between us at the time, looking at it now, it’s a good job we beat Wycombe, because if not we would be in trouble. I’ve always thought we would do enough to stay up and I still do now, but the nerves are starting to kick in now. I think I’ve said it before, we need to get through this season and have a total revamp for next season, which might be harder to do than we think.

[BrudeRAM]

25 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Wow. I’m almost looking forward to this ‘inevitable’ loss to Luton just to see the absolute melt down on here. 

Luton is not a must win game. The simple fact is, if we beat Birmingham and Wednesday, we stay up with no problems. They’re must win games, and they’re a few games away yet. We could loose every game in the mean time and it would make no difference (apart from in terms of intangible confidence stuff). 

If we loose to Luton, the season is not over, I just want to remind everyone of that before anyone does anything silly. This thread is starting to sound like a mass cry for help. 

Completely get your point about the most important games being against Bham and Wednesday but I think the Luton game is deemed so important because I just can't see our team having the metal to step up and perform if it comes to a straight shoot-out with either of them. We need to pick up points against Luton to ease some pressure and stop the nose-dive in performances otherwise I can't see us picking up any points at all in the coming games with our recent form, including the Bham and Wednesday matches.

[eccles the ram]

Luton game is the most important game of season for me. Win it and we may then gain a bit of confidence. Draw or lose it and the fragility returns. Lawrence needs to play his one in ten good game for this one. Ten points needed but i fear it is going down to the wire. Guess who Forest have last game of season- Preston. Would they play for a win if we needed them to beat Preston to save us? I think not! 

[Parsnip]

48 minutes ago, TigerTedd said:

Luton is not a must win game. The simple fact is, if we beat Birmingham and Wednesday, we stay up with no problems. They’re must win games, and they’re a few games away yet. We could loose every game in the mean time and it would make no difference

The scary thing is, I reckon Wayne and the team might share your point of view.

[Brammie Steve]

2 hours ago, eccles the ram said:

Luton game is the most important game of season for me. Win it and we may then gain a bit of confidence. Draw or lose it and the fragility returns. Lawrence needs to play his one in ten good game for this one. Ten points needed but i fear it is going down to the wire. Guess who Forest have last game of season- Preston. Would they play for a win if we needed them to beat Preston to save us? I think not! 

Yes, of course they would.

Are you seriously saying that Forest would deliberately lose a league match?

They enjoy the rivalry between our teams especially whenh they hold the BC Trophy.

PS. Forest were relegated in our first League Championship season but we never thought of throwing a match....quite the reverse!

[Rampage]

2 hours ago, BrudeRAM said:

Completely get your point about the most important games being against Bham and Wednesday but I think the Luton game is deemed so important because I just can't see our team having the metal to step up and perform if it comes to a straight shoot-out with either of them. We need to pick up points against Luton to ease some pressure and stop the nose-dive in performances otherwise I can't see us picking up any points at all in the coming games with our recent form, including the Bham and Wednesday matches.

Luton have some good players and a good team ethic. They are capable of getting a goal against us which may prove to be enough.

[Jimbo Ram]

9 minutes ago, Rampage said:

Luton have some good players and a good team ethic. They are capable of getting a goal against us which may prove to be enough.

Probably a 25 yard Incey special in the 94th minute....

[Van der MoodHoover]

38 minutes ago, Rampage said:

Luton have some good players and a good team ethic. They are capable of getting a goal against us which may prove to be enough.

This is the concern. Our decent run was built on clean sheets (unsurprisingly). Since we have lost the capability to keep a clean sheet our points have plummeted. 

Hopefully Wayne will use the 2 weeks we'll to reset the defence and regain solidity. 

The elephant in the room is whether the time is wasted resolving internal feuds. 

[Rammy03]

I've been confident all season we will get out of this, even when we were rock bottom. I honestly believed we will stay up and I still do, but even I'm starting to get just a little bit worried now.

This is the most concerned I've been all season, probably because we're coming down to the business end and we're still in trouble not looking like we can score another goal let alone win another game. Add the comments from Rooney about Waghorn and this just looks like a recipe for League one.

We need to sort it over this 2 week break. Beat Luton first game back and we're halfway there.

[BrudeRAM]

1 hour ago, Rampage said:

Luton have some good players and a good team ethic. They are capable of getting a goal against us which may prove to be enough.

I agree, I'm not saying they're a poor team we should be beating because right now it seems Anyone is capable of turning us over. I just think we need to pick up points against Luton or risk letting our form continue and ending up in a winner-stays up game between Bham or Sheff Wed which would be a big ask to come out on top of if we've not gotten a point in months. Squeaky bum time

[TigerTedd]

4 hours ago, BrudeRAM said:

Completely get your point about the most important games being against Bham and Wednesday but I think the Luton game is deemed so important because I just can't see our team having the metal to step up and perform if it comes to a straight shoot-out with either of them. We need to pick up points against Luton to ease some pressure and stop the nose-dive in performances otherwise I can't see us picking up any points at all in the coming games with our recent form, including the Bham and Wednesday matches.

Agree 100%. I’d much rather we beat Luton and it takes a lot of pressure off, but if we don’t, it doesn’t automatically equate to ‘season over.’ people saying it’s the most important game of the season are a bit OTT. By that definition, Stoke was the most important game (if we’d have beaten them, pressure off), or if we loose to Luton, then the game after is the most important game. 

they’re all important games at this stage. One win can take the pressure right off. 

Although, let me posit this scenario. We win against Luton, everyone breathes a sigh of relief, and we take our foot off the gas like we did after our good post Christmas form. We then meander into games against Brum and sheff and end up loosing. 

or, we loose to Luton, and are then in no doubt that Brum and sheff are must win games, we step up to the challenge and beat them both. 

I know we don’t look much like stepping up to any challenge at the minute, but I’d still back us against Brum and sheff. We’ve got the quality on the day. 

[plymouthram]

14 hours ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

Some posters saying we’re relying on other teams?! When I last checked we were out the bottom 3 with 8 games to go. We are a long way from relying on other teams results. We’ve had poor runs under Rooney already yet turned it around and had a good run, what’s to say it won’t happen again?

People are dismissing Coventry. They’ve not exactly been great since they beat us. All the other teams down there are stuttering.

48 points IMO should be enough. We’ve got 8 games with some home games where our form has been good. We are 1 of 6 (possibly 7 teams) with a chance of going down competing for 1 place. I quite fancy those odds. 
 

Still in our own hands, we’re more than capable. But we also must improve recent performances. 
 

 

Totally agree, good statement. If we are not picking up lots of points, 3 teams below us have got to better us.

[Tamworthram]

23 hours ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

Some posters saying we’re relying on other teams?! When I last checked we were out the bottom 3 with 8 games to go. We are a long way from relying on other teams results. We’ve had poor runs under Rooney already yet turned it around and had a good run, what’s to say it won’t happen again?

People are dismissing Coventry. They’ve not exactly been great since they beat us. All the other teams down there are stuttering.

48 points IMO should be enough. We’ve got 8 games with some home games where our form has been good. We are 1 of 6 (possibly 7 teams) with a chance of going down competing for 1 place. I quite fancy those odds. 
 

Still in our own hands, we’re more than capable. But we also must improve recent performances. 
 

 

Yes it’s still in our own hands but I wouldn’t say we are “a long way off” relying on other teams results. I think the point many are making is that it’s difficult to see, given how we’re playing apart from the second half against Brentford, where our next win will come from. The teams around us aren’t exactly going through a purple patch but unless we improve we do need to hope they don’t keep chipping away at the gap.

[RammingStone66]

22 hours ago, Jase116 said:

I think people are getting nervous because ( let’s be fair) we thought we could avoid defeat from the likes of cov, Rotherham etc, which would have kept the distance between us at the time, looking at it now, it’s a good job we beat Wycombe, because if not we would be in trouble. I’ve always thought we would do enough to stay up and I still do now, but the nerves are starting to kick in now. I think I’ve said it before, we need to get through this season and have a total revamp for next season, which might be harder to do than we think.

It does feel like the squad needs a full reset. But with P&S in effect not sure how likely that is. Take Waghorn for example, to my understanding currently we would take a significant loss on him, as no one is paying the 5mil we paid, unsure if we would get 1mil on current form. Could we afford to eat that loss especially if we have to change our Amortization method?

[QuitYourJibbaJivin]

8 minutes ago, RammingStone66 said:

It does feel like the squad needs a full reset. But with P&S in effect not sure how likely that is. Take Waghorn for example, to my understanding currently we would take a significant loss on him, as no one is paying the 5mil we paid, unsure if we would get 1mil on current form. Could we afford to eat that loss especially if we have to change our Amortization method?

If you could get £500k for an out of contract waghorn in the summer Mel would give you the job as head of negotiations. 

[Van der MoodHoover]

30 minutes ago, RammingStone66 said:

It does feel like the squad needs a full reset. But with P&S in effect not sure how likely that is. Take Waghorn for example, to my understanding currently we would take a significant loss on him, as no one is paying the 5mil we paid, unsure if we would get 1mil on current form. Could we afford to eat that loss especially if we have to change our Amortization method?

We might have taken some write down already - we just have no idea.

All we can be reasonably clear on is that we will have lost whatever we paid for him over his 3 year contract...

[Ghost of Clough]

39 minutes ago, RammingStone66 said:

It does feel like the squad needs a full reset. But with P&S in effect not sure how likely that is.

A lot depends on how big our accounting loss is for the 19/20 season. Given we had an amortisation charge of over £25m in that season, it won't look pretty, despite of a significant reduction in the wage bill.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the club was gambling on Waghorn and Wisdom extending their deals to ensure we sneak under the limit for the current period. The problem is, if they still have significant book value and we let them leave, then we may have to sell a youngster to make up that loss.

I have no doubts our recruitment will be limited to the academy, loans and freebies.

The good thing is, after this summer, the players of significant value will be limited to just the following: Lawrence, Marriott, Bielik and Jozwiak

39 minutes ago, RammingStone66 said:

Take Waghorn for example, to my understanding currently we would take a significant loss on him, as no one is paying the 5mil we paid, unsure if we would get 1mil on current form. Could we afford to eat that loss especially if we have to change our Amortization method?

You might need to check up on rules about selling out of contract players ?

[ImARam2]

Although I think the Luton game is a vital game and we really need a win, however, there are three teams worse than the Rams and if we beat them, we'll remain in the Championship.

Beat Preston North End, Birmingham City and Sheffield Wednesday will give the Rams 49 points which will ensure we stay up.

Then all we have to worry about is the EFL !!!!

[RammingStone66]

4 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

A lot depends on how big our accounting loss is for the 19/20 season. Given we had an amortisation charge of over £25m in that season, it won't look pretty, despite of a significant reduction in the wage bill.

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if the club was gambling on Waghorn and Wisdom extending their deals to ensure we sneak under the limit for the current period. The problem is, if they still have significant book value and we let them leave, then we may have to sell a youngster to make up that loss.

I have no doubts our recruitment will be limited to the academy, loans and freebies.

The good thing is, after this summer, the players of significant value will be limited to just the following: Lawrence, Marriott, Bielik and Jozwiak

You might need to check up on rules about selling out of contract players ?

Lol yes not saying I have a great understanding at all, but my thought was that our spending might be severely limited as in selling players with a higher book value than they are worth on the open market like Waghorn, we might take too much of a loss, and that might give us too much of a P&S loss to be resetting the squad or potentially put us over the loss limit.

I understand we don't know the actual amounts so it's hard to guess 

[Ghost of Clough]

13 minutes ago, RammingStone66 said:

Lol yes not saying I have a great understanding at all, but my thought was that our spending might be severely limited as in selling players with a higher book value than they are worth on the open market like Waghorn, we might take too much of a loss, and that might give us too much of a P&S loss to be resetting the squad or potentially put us over the loss limit.

I understand we don't know the actual amounts so it's hard to guess 

But even ignoring Waghorn's current book value, we won't be able to sell him as he's out of contract in the summer