Lincoln v Derby match day thread.

[duncanjwitham]

23 minutes ago, Stockport Ram said:

I agree we had more, but my humble opinion is that none of them were anywhere near as three of theirs. I’d say NML’s was the best but still difficult. I am a bear of very little brain so maybe I just don’t comprehend the statistical basis of “expected” goals, because I assumed it was more based on the probability of the chances than their frequency. 

Its good to learn ! 🤓

Not necessarily aiming at this at you, but people do struggle to rate how good chances are.  When you look at actual real-life conversion rates of some types of shots, they are often wildly different to what people think.  One-on-ones are an obvious example, because people seem to think they should almost all be scored, but the actual conversion rate is something closer to 20% if my memory is correct.  And that’s something that xG is supposed to capture, and I suspect it’s part of the reason why xG stats don’t always measure up to people’s recollection of the game.

Having watched the highlights back again, their chances were all from wide angles, the attacker was under pressure from a defender in almost all of them, one was so from wide it was almost on the goal line, and one was taken from almost the edge of the box.  All of which count against the quality of the chances.  So the truth is, while the situations looked really bad (with Cashin getting done for pace etc), they actually didn’t result in very easy chances (in most part because Cashin was able to stay on his feet and influence the game).

And that’s another reason why stats are interesting alongside watching the game.  Most of the time they are going to more or less back up what you see with your eyes (and if they never did this, they’re probably useless stats).  But sometimes they don’t match up, and that’s when you can have a deeper dig and see if anything was actually going on that you didn’t notice first time (and likewise, if stats didn’t do this sometimes, they’re also useless stats because they don’t tell you anything you don’t already know).

[Archied]

18 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

which is exactly where this squad of players should be anyway

Are you happy getting a lucky 0-0 draw against lincoln, nicking a last min winner v burton albion, being outplayed by peterborough at pride park, being knocked out cups by crewe and bradford ?

I know i have a glass half empty view on things, can't help it😅, but i just don't see how we will survive in the championship playing this brand of football. 

Oh come on , you are being very short sighted , surely it should be you don’t see how we can survive in the prem playing this brand of football , just in case we do well in the championship under warne ,

as for this brand of football ,,, do you actually watch games ?

[Archied]

13 hours ago, LeedsCityRam said:

Not read all the thread so not sure if anyone else has commented on this but there was a lot of passing out from the keeper on Saturday. Hourihane was often picking the ball up as the last man & we were knocking it around the back & then passing through the lines into midfield rather than just launching it every time. It was good to see that variety & coming back to your point about Klopp, reminiscent of how they build the play.

Yep it was very noticeable 

[Chris_Martin]

3 hours ago, Archied said:

Oh come on , you are being very short sighted , surely it should be you don’t see how we can survive in the prem playing this brand of football , just in case we do well in the championship under warne ,

as for this brand of football ,,, do you actually watch games ?

 

i actually watch a heck of a lot of football and not just derby. So i am very familiar with the levels required for prem, champ, L1

what would be very short sighted, would be thinking that this brand of football would get us to the prem

[Srg]

2 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

 

i actually watch a heck of a lot of football and not just derby. So i am very familiar with the levels required for prem, champ, L1

what would be very short sighted, would be thinking that this brand of football would get us to the prem

Luton got there with a far far "worse" brand than this.

[Crewton]

11 minutes ago, Srg said:

Luton got there with a far far "worse" brand than this.

In the words of the old song "..... and Leicester!"

 

[Archied]

3 hours ago, Chris_Martin said:

 

i actually watch a heck of a lot of football and not just derby. So i am very familiar with the levels required for prem, champ, L1

what would be very short sighted, would be thinking that this brand of football would get us to the prem

Guess who I bumped into in specsavers today ?

 

every ducker

[DCFC Kicks]

On 22/01/2024 at 13:59, Ghost of Clough said:

I can see Warne's intended style of playing mimicing Klopp's Liverpool. The question then is, can we recruit players in the summer which will allow us to play that way at Championship level. Will we even shape up with a 433? Anything else will sacrifce the press - playing either a 3 at the back or 2 up front would reduce the effectiveness of Klopp's high intensity pressing style.

The 'Klopp style of play' you're suggesting isn't even used by Klopp anymore. It's almost 5 years out of date. He's changed to 3-3-3-1 similar to most top Prem teams. I've seen little evidence Warnes style resembles old Klopp anyway

[DCFC Kicks]

On 22/01/2024 at 14:37, Caerphilly Ram said:

I get that you, and others, don’t like Warne and his style. But IF we get promoted and IF he doesn’t make a good go of it he probably leaves and someone else comes in, the club is putting all the other infrastructure in place towards a long term process regardless of who is first team manager. 

But the plans and infrastructure being placed doesn't seem to align with what Warne is doing at all, and is arguably hindering it. How is it helpful that a progressive 4-3-3 style is imposed on every level of the academy, but the first team play such backwards football?

I personally don't want to wait 3 years to just see if it works out for Warne. Ask Sheffield Wednesday fans next season if it was worth getting promoted by any means last season. 

 

[Caerphilly Ram]

31 minutes ago, DCFC Kicks said:

But the plans and infrastructure being placed doesn't seem to align with what Warne is doing at all, and is arguably hindering it. How is it helpful that a progressive 4-3-3 style is imposed on every level of the academy, but the first team play such backwards football?

I personally don't want to wait 3 years to just see if it works out for Warne. Ask Sheffield Wednesday fans next season if it was worth getting promoted by any means last season. 

 

The plans and infrastructure I mentioned aren’t limited solely to how the academy plays its football. The accusation put forward by the original poster was along the lines of the club isn’t planning for the future, which ignores reality. It might not be planning for the future how you and others feel is correct and best, but there is clearly work going on since the club was saved with one eye on the future. People choose to ignore that cause Warne’s football isn’t for them, and they want to bang that drum, the two things aren’t inherently linked is my point. Whether Warne is or isn’t the future of the Derby, the current owner is seemingly looking to make the club robust and sustainable. 

On your other point, whether you personally want to wait to find out how Paul Warne does or not, you need to make your mind up on how you move forward. Save for staging a protest at the club (which may well fall on deaf ears in this moment) or choosing to follow some other team there’s an apparent need to accept Paul Warne is the manager of the club in this moment. That’s the present reality we all face regardless of our stance on him, his style of football, or his choice of headwear.

 

[Crewton]

LOL @ posters comparing what we might do if we got promoted with what Sheff Weds under Chansiri did.

[DCFC Kicks]

3 hours ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

The plans and infrastructure I mentioned aren’t limited solely to how the academy plays its football. The accusation put forward by the original poster was along the lines of the club isn’t planning for the future, which ignores reality. It might not be planning for the future how you and others feel is correct and best, but there is clearly work going on since the club was saved with one eye on the future. People choose to ignore that cause Warne’s football isn’t for them, and they want to bang that drum, the two things aren’t inherently linked is my point. Whether Warne is or isn’t the future of the Derby, the current owner is seemingly looking to make the club robust and sustainable. 

On your other point, whether you personally want to wait to find out how Paul Warne does or not, you need to make your mind up on how you move forward. Save for staging a protest at the club (which may well fall on deaf ears in this moment) or choosing to follow some other team there’s an apparent need to accept Paul Warne is the manager of the club in this moment. That’s the present reality we all face regardless of our stance on him, his style of football, or his choice of headwear.

 

I know they're planning in other ways and not solely the academy. I was just using it as an example. Nothing about Warnes signals long term planning at all. He hasn't improved any player (and therefore increased their sale value should we sell). He's churned through the squad and ground them down to playing a regressive, simplistic and short-termist method of playing football. I presume part of this 'future planning' involves attracting talented players here with high sell on potential. What about Warne would attract any player like that to us? How does that help with the long term planning and continuity of the club? Its not that I disagree with Warne in the context of future planning, I think he's actively a hinderance to it. If his short-termism does work and we go up,  I think it will just be one step forward, two back overall. You mention Warne as a representation of robustness and sustainability. He hasn't been either of those things. His transfers aren't sustainable and he's abandoned formations and systems multiple times over the last seasons.   

I disagree that just because something can't be changed, that means you can't express dislike for it. Of course we all want Derby to win every game no matter what. 

 

[Caerphilly Ram]

8 minutes ago, DCFC Kicks said:

I know they're planning in other ways and not solely the academy. I was just using it as an example. Nothing about Warnes signals long term planning at all. He hasn't improved any player (and therefore increased their sale value should we sell). He's churned through the squad and ground them down to playing a regressive, simplistic and short-termist method of playing football. I presume part of this 'future planning' involves attracting talented players here with high sell on potential. What about Warne would attract any player like that to us? How does that help with the long term planning and continuity of the club? Its not that I disagree with Warne in the context of future planning, I think he's actively a hinderance to it. If his short-termism does work and we go up,  I think it will just be one step forward, two back overall. You mention Warne as a representation of robustness and sustainability. He hasn't been either of those things. His transfers aren't sustainable and he's abandoned formations and systems multiple times over the last seasons.   

I disagree that just because something can't be changed, that means you can't express dislike for it. Of course we all want Derby to win every game no matter what. 

 

I didn’t say Warne was a representation of robustness and sustainability. I said the owner is seemingly making the club more robust and sustainable.

I also didn’t say you can’t express your dislike, just commented on your point that you personally don’t want to wait 3 years to see how Warne does. Maybe I took your point too literally and I can see in hindsight I didn’t word my response how I intended, what I mean is if you don’t want to wait 3 years then only you can choose what to do about how you feel personally on Warne, as it currently appears he’s here for the moment. You and others are free to your opinions. 
 

My whole response was about the comments that the club isn’t planning for the future linked purely to Paul Warne being the manager. I disagree on that observation. Whether Warne is or isn’t suitable long term is PART of that conversation but not the ONLY aspect and it is disingenuous to say the club isn’t doing anything else just because of an opinion someone holds on Warne. 

It is inevitable that tonight and on the back of recent performances people are keen to debate the manager, I’m not, I haven’t got the energy for it any more, but I stand by the fact the club is doing more towards future planning regardless of Warne being employed. 

[DCFC Kicks]

On 23/01/2024 at 23:16, Caerphilly Ram said:

I didn’t say Warne was a representation of robustness and sustainability. I said the owner is seemingly making the club more robust and sustainable.

I also didn’t say you can’t express your dislike, just commented on your point that you personally don’t want to wait 3 years to see how Warne does. Maybe I took your point too literally and I can see in hindsight I didn’t word my response how I intended, what I mean is if you don’t want to wait 3 years then only you can choose what to do about how you feel personally on Warne, as it currently appears he’s here for the moment. You and others are free to your opinions. 
 

My whole response was about the comments that the club isn’t planning for the future linked purely to Paul Warne being the manager. I disagree on that observation. Whether Warne is or isn’t suitable long term is PART of that conversation but not the ONLY aspect and it is disingenuous to say the club isn’t doing anything else just because of an opinion someone holds on Warne. 

It is inevitable that tonight and on the back of recent performances people are keen to debate the manager, I’m not, I haven’t got the energy for it any more, but I stand by the fact the club is doing more towards future planning regardless of Warne being employed. 

Aren't the manager and future planning one and the same? Even if Warne leaves after a few seasons, what legacy is he going to leave? Isn't all planning ultimately made with the first team in mind? I don't see how you can separate them.

[Caerphilly Ram]

13 minutes ago, DCFC Kicks said:

Aren't the manager and future planning one and the same? Even if Warne leaves after a few seasons, what legacy is he going to leave? Isn't all planning ultimately made with the first team in mind? I don't see how you can separate them.

I didn’t say anything about separating them. I said Warne is PART of the conversation around future planning, being part of something is by definition the opposite of separating them. I also said that he isn’t the only aspect of future planning.

If you can’t or don’t see things like the renewed commitment to a category 1 academy with a freshly recruited staff, or the appointment of a new recruitment team, the broadening of our scouting network, the investment in the women’s team, the rebranding of the club, the improved relationship with the league, the apparent commitment to sustainable growth moving forward as being part of the club’s future planning then that’s fair enough, but I do see it that way. 

[Van der MoodHoover]

5 hours ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

I didn’t say anything about separating them. I said Warne is PART of the conversation around future planning, being part of something is by definition the opposite of separating them. I also said that he isn’t the only aspect of future planning.

If you can’t or don’t see things like the renewed commitment to a category 1 academy with a freshly recruited staff, or the appointment of a new recruitment team, the broadening of our scouting network, the investment in the women’s team, the rebranding of the club, the improved relationship with the league, the apparent commitment to sustainable growth moving forward as being part of the club’s future planning then that’s fair enough, but I do see it that way. 

The financial results posted elsewhere suggest investment is being made, but don't show in what. The alternative, that those losses are operational hardly point to sustainabllity.

David clowes is also regarded as a shrewd businessman and putting those pieces together suggests solid foundations.

Each piece has to deliver though. The recruitment has underwhelmed so far. The academy is not likely to punch it's weight without commitment to showcase the players in the first team to attract offers or identify solutions for our team.

Needs all the pieces pulling in the same direction. Not convinced that they are atm