Derby vs Port Vale

[Grimbeard]

21 hours ago, Andicis said:

Infinitesimally small. You are fundamentally misunderstanding the purpose. There will always be instances of amazing goals scored that will defy the model, you can't account for anomalys. 999/1000 Garnacho either doesn't connect with the ball or misses by miles. It's about the long run, generally teams in the long run finish close to their xG position. 

Premier League teams all have data scientists working in them. It isn't necessarily the coaches, but the recruitment teams, the analysts, the scouts. It's in everything in elite football, whether you see that or not. 

The variables depends on the model, there are different ones. The variables themselves are subjective sure, but we don't have a better metric to view a game without just watching the full 90. No other stat provides as useful of an insight. Nobody pretends it's perfect, but hey it's better than nothing.

 

This twaddle confirmes what many of us suspected. It's a load of old bollox.

[BramcoteRam84]

Back to the game. I enjoyed going despite the new away end being hideous.

Thought without being brilliant we dominated the game last night and would’ve won by more if it wasn’t for Connor Ripley in goal who has found himself in team of the week (although his distribution is shocking). 
 

Thought Curtis Nelson was his usual 7/8 out of 10, Cash was outstanding and both dealt well with Ikpeazu. Wilson was electric, ably supported by Bird Fornah Mendez and Collo. Warne looked a genius with the subs, both immediately involved in the goal and JJ looks a real player hope we can keep him fit. Players who in my view are struggling are Hourihane and Fozzy (defensively), he’s been getting a lot of love from some fans recently but I think his last few performances have been poor defensively, Cash bailed him out a couple of times last night. His forward play in recent games has been much better definitely, but I feel we need Elder fit and playing instead. I’ve always been a staunch Fozzy defender but think this could be his last season in a Rams shirt.

I said a while back the port vale game is a good time to assess where we’re at. I started turning against Warne after Stevenage and said he needed a winning run like last season to turn it around, he’s now won 4 on the spin. We’re ahead of where we were last season scored more goals and we’re closer to the top 2. This seasons game against vale while it didn’t have the drama, it was a much better performance than last season.

While Im now unconvinced Warne is the man for the long term, we are well in the hunt for promotion and to make a change would be lunacy. Barring a monumental collapse we should probably keep him for the season and I can definitely see us finishing top 6 minimum which has to be the aim. However I thought we’d make top 6 last season!! 🤣

[Brammie Steve]

Er….wot’s ‘xG position’ when it’s at home?

 

Polite replies only please!

[G STAR RAM]

21 minutes ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

Back to the game. I enjoyed going despite the new away end being hideous.

Thought without being brilliant we dominated the game last night and would’ve won by more if it wasn’t for Connor Ripley in goal who has found himself in team of the week (although his distribution is shocking). 
 

Thought Curtis Nelson was his usual 7/8 out of 10, Cash was outstanding and both dealt well with Ikpeazu. Wilson was electric, ably supported by Bird Fornah Mendez and Collo. Warne looked a genius with the subs, both immediately involved in the goal and JJ looks a real player hope we can keep him fit. Players who in my view are struggling are Hourihane and Fozzy (defensively), he’s been getting a lot of love from some fans recently but I think his last few performances have been poor defensively, Cash bailed him out a couple of times last night. His forward play in recent games has been much better definitely, but I feel we need Elder fit and playing instead. I’ve always been a staunch Fozzy defender but think this could be his last season in a Rams shirt.

I said a while back the port vale game is a good time to assess where we’re at. I started turning against Warne after Stevenage and said he needed a winning run like last season to turn it around, he’s now won 4 on the spin. We’re ahead of where we were last season scored more goals and we’re closer to the top 2. This seasons game against vale while it didn’t have the drama, it was a much better performance than last season.

While Im now unconvinced Warne is the man for the long term, we are well in the hunt for promotion and to make a change would be lunacy. Barring a monumental collapse we should probably keep him for the season and I can definitely see us finishing top 6 minimum which has to be the aim. However I thought we’d make top 6 last season!! 🤣

Agree regarding Fozzy.

Think its way too early to be calling JJ some player, he hardly touched the ball apart from the goal.

From memory didnt we create loads of chances against Port Vale last season?

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

Chelsea won't go down unless they get a monster points deduction. 

But if their owner wanted to sell but couldn't  and he then withdraws financial support they would go into administration. Would that be poor recruitment? 

[Bris Vegas]

5 minutes ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

But if their owner wanted to sell but couldn't  and he then withdraws financial support they would go into administration. Would that be poor recruitment? 

Even if they went into admin, Chelsea won’t go down.

Nobody can sit here and claim Chelsea’s recruitment has been good. They’ve spent £1bn on new players yet sit midtable having lost at home to Forest.

[uttoxram75]

3 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

The way to test the goodness of fit of any statistic is to do analyse the distribution of the actual vs expected. That is, the distribution of the residual (A-E)

You'd expect that shape to be the classic bell shaped curve. But the value of the mean, or peak of the curve, should be close to 0 with a relatively narrow dispersion around the mean for it to be seen as statistically "good".

We shall discuss this in more depth in the Black Swan in Utch before next Tuesday's match over a couple of pints of Bass.

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Bris Vegas said:

Even if they went into admin, Chelsea won’t go down.

Nobody can sit here and claim Chelsea’s recruitment has been good. They’ve spent £1bn on new players yet sit midtable having lost at home to Forest.

The point is they would go into administration if the owner stopped funding the club. Recruitment wouldn't be the issue. 

Derby went into administration due to the owner choosing to no longer finance the club. 

[Bris Vegas]

1 hour ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

The point is they would go into administration if the owner stopped funding the club. Recruitment wouldn't be the issue. 

Derby went into administration due to the owner choosing to no longer finance the club. 

The owner chose to no longer finance the club because he had lost a shed load due to poor recruitment. 

No owner would take over a club just to put them in admin. Clubs go in admin because owners can’t or won’t keep covering the big losses. And clubs occur big losses due to bloated wage bills and poor recruitment.

[Magicman]

No way could collins score that goal he is rarely in the right place and the right time and has no idea how to ghost into space. 

[Caerphilly Ram]

6 hours ago, Magicman said:

No way could collins score that goal he is rarely in the right place and the right time and has no idea how to ghost into space. 

It is possible to praise John-Jules movement, composure and finishing without digging out other players.

Collins has scored goals for the team we support this season, which have won us points. He’s limited, but he’s part of the squad for now and will play a part in our season.

[kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong]

9 hours ago, uttoxram75 said:

We shall discuss this in more depth in the Black Swan in Utch before next Tuesday's match over a couple of pints of Bass.

What's the bass like in there uttoxram?

Used to enjoy proper a proper pint from the old bass museum at Burton,after work,back in the day but I've not tried it since the place closed down.

Edited November 30, 2023 by kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

The owner chose to no longer finance the club because he had lost a shed load due to poor recruitment. 

No owner would take over a club just to put them in admin. Clubs go in admin because owners can’t or won’t keep covering the big losses. And clubs occur big losses due to bloated wage bills and poor recruitment.

Nearly all clubs, including successful ones have massive losses. Administration is down to a decision of an owner as to whether they can continue or want to continue to fund them. The contributing factors are supposition. 

[RadioactiveWaste]

11 hours ago, Returning ram said:

I think it's just building up to blame Warne for the recruitment during Mels period.....must be one of few things that's not been levelled at him recently.

Did we lose to his Rotherham team at some point? That's probably your smoking gun on that one.

[MadAmster]

8 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

The owner chose to no longer finance the club because he had lost a shed load due to poor recruitment. 

No owner would take over a club just to put them in admin. Clubs go in admin because owners can’t or won’t keep covering the big losses. And clubs occur big losses due to bloated wage bills and poor recruitment.

Poor recruitment that MM agreed to and signed the cheques...

[Crewton]

8 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

No owner would take over a club just to put them in admin.

Wigan and Bury fans might disagree with that.

[Waghorny]

9 hours ago, Magicman said:

No way could collins score that goal he is rarely in the right place and the right time and has no idea how to ghost into space. 

If my grandmother had wheels she would have been a bike...

[Gerry Daly]

19 hours ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

Lovely angle of the winner 😊 

It was great to see the young lad so obviously thrilled with that

[Srg]

On 28/11/2023 at 22:20, Srg said:

Young Vale fan doing some interviews with our lads who are being top lads with him. NML said he remembered him from last year when he asked Didzy about his song. 

Here’s the lad’s video. 

[Returning ram]

Pretty sure MM would have lost enough money on managers he sacked to compensate for another season or two funding. Stick with the same manager for longer periods and give them the opportunity to succeed and you don't have a bigger turnover in players.

It was a flawed business plan from MM which has resulted in us being on this league, along with his arrogance not to play within the rules.