23/24 MINIMUM Expectations

[David Graham Brown]

1 hour ago, Jase116 said:

It's funny, after we missed out on the play offs, I turned round to the wife and 'we will win the league next season, play offs has to be minimal achievement 

If I had said the same comment to my wife, her reply would have been.

1 What are you on about?

2 You woke me up to tell me that?

Such is my wife’s interest in football.

 

 

[Ghost of Clough]

29 minutes ago, Millenniumram said:

You can’t guarantee it no, but I strongly suggest we will do. Looking at the clubs in the league this season, I can’t see many where I think the owner is going to throw money at it. Time will tell, but a lot of clubs in this league are / have recently been in financial trouble, so I don’t see anyone spending vast sums (like Ipswich last season).

I can see Bolton, Portsmouth, Charlton and Oxford potentially making a financial push this season.

[Millenniumram]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I can see Bolton, Portsmouth, Charlton and Oxford potentially making a financial push this season.

Maybe they’ll take a gamble given the lack of quality in the league this year. We will see. But Bolton, Portsmouth and Charlton are 3 of the clubs who’ve had financial problems in recent memory, I’m not sure there will be appetite to be reckless. Oxford is the one I see as most likely, but their income will be so small compared to ours, that even substantial owner investment won’t see them hit our budget imo.

[Caerphilly Ram]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I can see Bolton, Portsmouth, Charlton and Oxford potentially making a financial push this season.

 

3 minutes ago, Millenniumram said:

Maybe they’ll take a gamble given the lack of quality in the league this year. We will see. But Bolton, Portsmouth and Charlton are 3 of the clubs who’ve had financial problems in recent memory, I’m not sure there will be appetite to be reckless. Oxford is the one I see as most likely, but their income will be so small compared to ours, that even substantial owner investment won’t see them hit our budget imo.

There’s little mention of Barnsley amongst the potential strong sides this season. They finished last season strongly and have wealthy owners don’t they? Is it down to them losing Duff as manager that people aren’t considering them a challenger? 

[Ghost of Clough]

12 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

There’s little mention of Barnsley amongst the potential strong sides this season. They finished last season strongly and have wealthy owners don’t they? Is it down to them losing Duff as manager that people aren’t considering them a challenger? 

In terms of budget, they'll be about 6th. Given performances last season, it's reasonable to assume they'll be up there challenging. But, they have been very hit and miss with their managers. Hard to see them kicking on from last season.

[Jourdan]

We have to be moving forward.

Anything less than play offs and Warne’s job would be in serious jeopardy and understandably so.

I think top 6 has to be the target at first but our targets will evolve over time. There are still too many variables at play to say whether automatic promotion is a realistic target. 

We have to see how recruitment goes and we also have to see how the new team gels and how we measure up against the other 23 teams in the first 10 games of the season.

At that point, you have a fair idea of a team’s prospects. Many will be true to form, but there are always surprise packages, for better or worse.

 

[Millenniumram]

42 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

 

There’s little mention of Barnsley amongst the potential strong sides this season. They finished last season strongly and have wealthy owners don’t they? Is it down to them losing Duff as manager that people aren’t considering them a challenger? 

Don’t think anyone is saying they’re not a strong side, just that they’re not likely to have the budget that we have. Their owners have been quite prudent with spending in the past, from what I recall, irrespective of how much cash they have. Of course, they could choose this season to make a big push, again we will see.

Them losing Duff is a big positive for us, particularly this close to the start of pre-season. All depends who they replace him with, they certainly have the potential to be one of our main challengers, but the timing will hopefully throw them into a bit of disarray.

[RodleyRam]

2 hours ago, Millenniumram said:

Perhaps, but I don’t really see why. I’m not saying we will get promoted, I’m just saying we should. That’s not cockiness, it’s just facts. I doubt any rival fan will argue that we’re not favourites. We absolutely could fail, and if we do that’s on us, and extremely embarrassing.

As of right now, I just don't think anyone can put us as favourites. There are sides who have been together longer and will be very competitive, who I would have ahead of us currently, Barnsley, Bolton, Peterborough, Portsmouth.

We've lost a lot of players who made a big difference last season and could well lose more. We have no goals, a shortage of CB and no real grit in the middle of the park. It's a really obvious thing to say... we might be the 'biggest' club in the league but we will only be able to live up to that billing if we get a promotion winning squad together.

Before anyone jumps down my throat, I'm not being negative, I just think billing us as certs to win the league at this point is premature. We should be able to get top six but anyone putting us ahead of the other bigger sides at this point is way ahead of themselves and boarding on blind arrogance.

[jimtastic56]

8 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

£20m revenue, but about £15m in operating costs and £10m admin expenses, resulting in a £5m loss. Revenue could be slightly higher due to additional income from cup competitions. Wages could be slightly overestimated. I still expect a loss.

Tv money in tier 3 is truly pathetic . I have read £750k last year , up to £850k this coming season. Even though we get gates of 27,000 - many of us get very cheap season tickets . I wouldn’t expect David Clowes to make up a shortfall.

[CBX1985]

Just now, jimtastic56 said:

Tv money in tier 3 is truly pathetic . I have read £750k last year , up to £850k this coming season. Even though we get gates of 27,000 - many of us get very cheap season tickets . I wouldn’t expect David Clowes to make up a shortfall.

But player costs are low.

A league up, our TV revenue will jump several fold but player costs more so.  

The one thing going for us last year was so many players contracts were up when we were relegated.  I remember the issue with Portsmouth was when they went down they had loads of players on expensive multi year deals they could not reasonably pay.

[Ghost of Clough]

5 hours ago, RodleyRam said:

As of right now, I just don't think anyone can put us as favourites. There are sides who have been together longer and will be very competitive, who I would have ahead of us currently, Barnsley, Bolton, Peterborough, Portsmouth.

We've lost a lot of players who made a big difference last season and could well lose more. We have no goals, a shortage of CB and no real grit in the middle of the park. It's a really obvious thing to say... we might be the 'biggest' club in the league but we will only be able to live up to that billing if we get a promotion winning squad together.

Before anyone jumps down my throat, I'm not being negative, I just think billing us as certs to win the league at this point is premature. We should be able to get top six but anyone putting us ahead of the other bigger sides at this point is way ahead of themselves and boarding on blind arrogance.

Barnsley - lost their manager but no notable changes to playing squad, except for 6/7 fringe players leaving, most of them were on loan.

Bolton - lost 2 squad players. Made 1 loan permanent. 2 of their best players returned to Liverpool and Man City, with Bradley being their 3rd top scorer and 2md in assists.

Peterborough - lost their top assister from last season, trying to sell their top scorer (their only palyer to score more than 10), lost another squad player. Released one of their most used defenders and also trying to sell 5 or 6 other regulars in their team. They dont even have a keeper as the two they had were only on loan. They made 1 loan forward permanant. They're essentially starting from scratch.

Portsmouth - finished below us last season. Lost 5 squad players and replaced them with 3 squad players from Burton, Forest Green and Shrewsbury (loan from Bournemouth), and a winger who barely played for Lincoln last season. Lost 6 further squad player who were on loan.

 

On the other hand, we've lost our 9th, 11th, 14th and 15th most used players. We've already replaced two of them and strengthened in our weakest position from last season. Whislt our sqyad isnt close to being complete, no one else is either. The nature of being a L1 club is a high turnover of players each season. We're rightfully the current favourites due to what our squads should look like by the end of the window.

[OoooMarkWright]

37 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

But player costs are low.

A league up, our TV revenue will jump several fold but player costs more so.  

The one thing going for us last year was so many players contracts were up when we were relegated.  I remember the issue with Portsmouth was when they went down they had loads of players on expensive multi year deals they could not reasonably pay.

@Ghost of Clough beat me to it! All of the sides you named have had disruption too. P’Boro will be in transition, doubt they’ll be near top 6 next season. 
Nobody is saying we’re certs for the top 2. But, by the end of the window I expect us to have built up a very good squad for this league. Failure to get promotion this year will be a failure. We’ve never spent 3 seasons in the 3rd tier. Regardless of admin, we should be going all out for top 2. We can’t keep blaming admin for mediocrity. The clubs stable. Signings will be made. This season, with other teams disruptions, there is no better time to get promoted. 

[Ghost of Clough]

43 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

Tv money in tier 3 is truly pathetic . I have read £750k last year , up to £850k this coming season. Even though we get gates of 27,000 - many of us get very cheap season tickets . I wouldn’t expect David Clowes to make up a shortfall.

Upon further research... EFL TV distributions, PL TV distributions (solidarity payments) and academy grants will likely reach £4m for us. We'll have cup and TV money on top of this as well (for winning each round and being chosen for live TV).

The difference between L1 and Championship for us is £4m in PL handouts and about £2m from EFL distributions. Academy grants (paid by the PL) remain unchanged no matter which league we're in.

[DavesaRam]

On 23/06/2023 at 19:43, RoyMac5 said:

Promotion. We should have achieved more last season.

.............. but couldn't because of the small squad, and the late start (ie limited pre-season) along with the small squad which prevented effective payer rotation. The result was the squad running out of steam during the run-in. There was also some bizarre team and tactics selections, so I partially agree with you, Roy! But this time last year we were wondering if there would be a club. Ideally we would have been promoted. And climbing on my bandwagon once more (it was wondering where I had got to), a few decent refereeing decisions would have ensure the play-offs at least. Even just that goal against Ipswich which was disallowed for offside would have seen us finish ahead of the Wendies.

[GenBr]

With two of our biggest rivals gone and 2 of the relegated teams in serious financial difficulty i'd be lying if i said i didnt at least expwct us to challenge for top 3

[ram59]

We look at last season's places for next season's competitors, but you can almost guarantee that one of the play off teams will be mid table team this coming season and that one or two will be 'surprise' contenders like Plymouth last season.

[Caerphilly Ram]

21 minutes ago, ram59 said:

We look at last season's places for next season's competitors, but you can almost guarantee that one of the play off teams will be mid table team this coming season and that one or two will be 'surprise' contenders like Plymouth last season.

Plymouth narrowly missed out on the playoffs the season before having been right up there most of the year. They weren’t surprise contenders last year. But I take your point otherwise.

[FindernRam]

We should hope for promotion but we still have a bit of a rag tag team and no "galatico" striker. Recruitment looks to be following a strategy so thats good. Striker(s) will be the key. Not sure why bookies rate our chances so highly.

[jimbobram]

Promotion is the only expectation. We are in a league in which we are one of, if not the biggest. Teams who would be in the running have/likely to have deductions. We can now spend according to a business plan. We have one of the better groups of players already.
 

 We HAVE to aim for automatics. Anything less than promotion is failure 

[FindernRam]

1 hour ago, jimbobram said:

We can now spend according to a business plan.

We seem to assume our business plan allows more spend than most in L1. I'm not sure the shackles are off to that extent by the EFL Has Mr Clowes said "spend spend"! I think not.

But I fully agree our aim is to go up!