Relegation watch

[angieram]

1 hour ago, David Baker said:

This is all so terribly disappointing. Each of the players seem to do well enough, at times, but probably not often enough. I thought that all of the loan signings looked to be good ones. Substitutions made, appear to be good ones. One win in ten; that is very bad. Three bookings, in the first few minutes; those were seriously bad news. Could none of them have been avoided?

I think if those three bookings had resulted in us avoiding three goals then they would have all been worth it because we would then have got a point from the game. A great free kick from Dowell meant we lost the game. Easy to say, but fine margins.

[Carnero]

15 minutes ago, angieram said:

I think if those three bookings had resulted in us avoiding three goals then they would have all been worth it because we would then have got a point from the game. A great free kick from Dowell meant we lost the game. Easy to say, but fine margins.

The mistake Fozzy made was not fouling Dowell sooner, he had the opportunity to take the booking around 10-15 yards further up the pitch. Classic case of us not being cynical enough.

[OohMartWright]

41 minutes ago, angieram said:

I think if those three bookings had resulted in us avoiding three goals then they would have all been worth it because we would then have got a point from the game. A great free kick from Dowell's dive meant we lost the game. Easy to say, but fine margins.

FTFY

[RoyMac5]

30 minutes ago, Carnero said:

The mistake Fozzy made was not fouling Dowell sooner, he had the opportunity to take the booking around 10-15 yards further up the pitch. Classic case of us not being cynical enough.

Yes I thought that too, but more like Fozzy not thinking quickly enough.

[angieram]

1 hour ago, OohMartWright said:

FTFY

I haven't seen that back. Was it soft then?

Edited April 12, 2021 by angieram
Spelling!

[rynny]

1 hour ago, angieram said:

I haven't seen that back. Was it soft then?

I thought that it was a dive at the time, and from the replays after he definitely went down very easy, it didn't look like Fozzy had tripped him, the only contact I saw was a slight brush of Dowell's back and he dropped to the floor. 

[Leeds Ram]

15 hours ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said:

If if if

well yes when you're dealing with the future it necessarily requires predictions thus using the word 'if' even those who are optimistic are having to rely on prediction. 

[Leeds Ram]

4 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

That's assuming they win their game in hand.

If we win just 1 of our final 5 games (which is a reasonable expectstion), Weds will need 11 points from their final 6 games just to take it to GD. It's extremely unlikely that they move above us.

They'd need 8 from 5 to take it to the final day- given they've recently picked up 7 from 5 it's perfectly doable for them. 

[ram59]

46 minutes ago, rynny said:

I thought that it was a dive at the time, and from the replays after he definitely went down very easy, it didn't look like Fozzy had tripped him, the only contact I saw was a slight brush of Dowell's back and he dropped to the floor. 

I agree, there didn't seem to be any contact from Fozzy, Dowell looked to have been closed down as well. If it had been Joz going down at the other end, there's no way we'd have had a free kick and there would have been those on here saying that it was embarrassing how easy he went down. In fact, Joz did make a header and got clattered by a Norwich player making no attempt for the ball, yellow card all day long, but not even a free kick.

Also, with the Dowell goal, the wall seemed to be a good 11 yards back, it would be nice if we had refs give us 10 yards, never mind 11. If you look at the replay, the free kick is 1 yard outside the area at 19 yards and the wall 2 yards outside the 6 yard box at 8 yards.

[Ghost of Clough]

48 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

They'd need 8 from 5 to take it to the final day- given they've recently picked up 7 from 5 it's perfectly doable for them. 

That would require them to show consistency over an 11 game period which they haven't shown for a couple of years. Very unlikely

[Leeds Ram]

1 minute ago, Ghost of Clough said:

That would require them to show consistency over an 11 game period which they haven't shown for a couple of years. Very unlikely

Given the fixtures (at home) I don't think it's very unlikely they'll put up a points tally around that area. They've just shown they can put together that kind of form so there is no reason to think they can't replicate it. 

[OohMartWright]

2 hours ago, angieram said:

I haven't seen that back. Was it soft then?

Very much so. He was on his way down before Fozzy touched him.

[RoyMac5]

9 minutes ago, OohMartWright said:

Very much so. He was on his way down before Fozzy touched him.

Maybe, maybe not. But Fozzy left the ref with no choice, coming at him from behind with his arm out - he should have 'dealt' with him earlier or kept off!

[OohMartWright]

1 hour ago, RoyMac5 said:

Maybe, maybe not. But Fozzy left the ref with no choice, coming at him from behind with his arm out - he should have 'dealt' with him earlier or kept off!

I don't disagree. Fozzy was either naive or clumsy, maybe both, but certainly did not deliberately foul Dowell and was not the main reason he went down. I think that ref was pre-disposed to giving free kicks against us, as evidenced by the rest of his "performance", and did not require much convincing.

 

[plymouthram]

19 hours ago, TheresOnlyWanChope said:

Odds don't mean much. Odds reflect what people are putting money on. I don't think much more needs to be said about that. It would hardly be the greatest escape ever if Rotherham stayed up. 

Odds are drawn up before punters put money on the games, yes they will be adjusted if people start betting heavily on one of the teams. All major bookies have experts who work out the initial odds, smaller or independent bookies will follow the odds of the bigger companies. Bookies will not get it wrong on a regular basis, they would all be bankrupt. "Odds don't mean much" is a bit of a throw away statement.

As for Great escape, Rotherham have been down in the bottom 6 most of the season. They have one of the smallest squads in the Championship and have a massive 9 games to play in 26 days. If they pulled it off, trust me they would be plauded by the football media.

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

1 minute ago, plymouthram said:

Odds are drawn up before punters put money on the games, yes they will be adjusted if people start betting heavily on one of the teams. All major bookies have experts who work out the initial odds, smaller or independent bookies will follow the odds of the bigger companies. Bookies will not get it wrong on a regular basis, they would all be bankrupt. "Odds don't mean much" is a bit of a throw away statement.

As for Great escape, Rotherham have been down in the bottom 6 most of the season. They have one of the smallest squads in the Championship and have a massive 9 games to play in 26 days. If they pulled it off, trust me they would be plauded by the football media.

Odds don't mean much means precisely that. Liverpool were favourites to win the league this season, Leicester were favourites for relegation and they won the league! We'll see after this week where Rotherham are at but I always fancied them to stay up this season and I will keep this prediction. Also, they can score goals whereas Derby just can't. I hope I am wrong, although I don't care who goes down as long as Derby don't.

[plymouthram]

14 minutes ago, TheresOnlyWanChope said:

Odds don't mean much means precisely that. Liverpool were favourites to win the league this season, Leicester were favourites for relegation and they won the league! We'll see after this week where Rotherham are at but I always fancied them to stay up this season and I will keep this prediction. Also, they can score goals whereas Derby just can't. I hope I am wrong, although I don't care who goes down as long as Derby don't.

Odds get adjusted as the season progresses. Yes Liverpool were made favourites at the begining of this season but they adjust the odds, so the bookies don't make a loss. The season Leicester won the title (2015/16), they were not the favourites at the begining of the season to go down, Bournemouth were. You might be getting confused with the fact, one bookies had them 5000/1 to win the title. They only lost 3 games all season and as games went by, their odds were slashed.

As for Rotherham can score goals, yes they can and do better than most of the teams down in the bottom end of the table. But they also concede, only SIX teams in the entire Championship have conceded more. And when you consider Rotherham have leaked 51 goals in 37 games, the other six have played 3 or 4 games more to have leaked more. To save you looking its Wycombe Conceded 64, Sheff Wed 52, Coventry 56, Hudderfield 60, Preston 55 and Bristol 55 (all in bottom half of the table).

P.S. I'm a QPR fan tommorrow evening, Thursday evening Rotherham and Coventry can draw and I will be happy, but either one wins and one or both will still be below us.

[Tyler Durden]

53 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

All major bookies have experts who work out the initial odds, smaller or independent bookies will follow the odds of the bigger companies. Bookies will not get it wrong on a regular basis, they would all be bankrupt. "Odds don't mean much" is a bit of a throw away statement.

Bookies do get the outcome wrong on a regular basis though - they just make sure that they have covered that eventuality by recouping more money on the other losing bets. 

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

13 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Odds get adjusted as the season progresses. Yes Liverpool were made favourites at the begining of this season but they adjust the odds, so the bookies don't make a loss. The season Leicester won the title (2015/16), they were not the favourites at the begining of the season to go down, Bournemouth were. You might be getting confused with the fact, one bookies had them 5000/1 to win the title. They only lost 3 games all season and as games went by, their odds were slashed.

As for Rotherham can score goals, yes they can and do better than most of the teams down in the bottom end of the table. But they also concede, only SIX teams in the entire Championship have conceded more. And when you consider Rotherham have leaked 51 goals in 37 games, the other six have played 3 or 4 games more to have leaked more. To save you looking its Wycombe Conceded 64, Sheff Wed 52, Coventry 56, Hudderfield 60, Preston 55 and Bristol 55 (all in bottom half of the table).

P.S. I'm a QPR fan tommorrow evening, Thursday evening Rotherham and Coventry can draw and I will be happy, but either one wins and one or both will still be below us.

Of course odds get adjusted, why is this being explained ?? Leicester were one of the favourites among all bookies at the start of the season to go down, they werent even favourites to win the title  until near the last part of the season.  If Rotherham win the next two they will have different odds! Anyway until we score goals we won’t stay up. We need wins not draws and the last two matches with zero points really keeps the pressure on. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by TheresOnlyWanChope

[Tyler Durden]

We're going down like BHS