The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread

[jimmyp]

9 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Does anyone know the latest age range of covid deaths?

We've seen infections hovering around the 50k mark for a while now and typically the death rate is approx 1 in 1000 - but according to the following article, most covid deaths are now in the vaccinated (for very understandable reasons, not a conspiracy theory article). 

If that is the case and despite 50k daily infections the fatality rate starts to look 'even better' and Monday's Freedom Day really should be a last day of restrictions, track and trace, etc.

 

 

 

[RoyMac5]

11 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Does anyone know the latest age range of covid deaths?

We've seen infections hovering around the 50k mark for a while now and typically the death rate is approx 1 in 1000 - but according to the following article, most covid deaths are now in the vaccinated (for very understandable reasons, not a conspiracy theory article). 

If that is the case and despite 50k daily infections the fatality rate starts to look 'even better' and Monday's Freedom Day really should be a last day of restrictions, track and trace, etc.

 

 

Quote

Correction: An earlier version of this article stated: “The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.” It should have read: “The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine”.

So that doesn't say how many had recently received their first dose vaccination, nor how many two doses and when. Nor whether they had any underlying health problems. Plus it's only talking about the Delta variant.

[maxjam]

4 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

So that doesn't say how many had recently received their first dose vaccination, nor how many two doses and when. Nor whether they had any underlying health problems. Plus it's only talking about the Delta variant.

Which was why I asked for the latest age related data, judging from which it is still exceedingly rare to die from covid if you're under 50. 

Given that most, if not all the over 50s that want the jab should be double jabbed by now, the delta variant is the dominant strain, and the vaccines are highly effective against the delta variant maybe we should be looking at the high numbers of 70yo+ deaths differently now?

[RoyMac5]

19 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Which was why I asked for the latest age related data, judging from which it is still exceedingly rare to die from covid if you're under 50. 

Given that most, if not all the over 50s that want the jab should be double jabbed by now, the delta variant is the dominant strain, and the vaccines are highly effective against the delta variant maybe we should be looking at the high numbers of 70yo+ deaths differently now?

It's now rarer to die from covid fullstop since the vaccines. Likely that 70+ yo deaths, or even a lot of them? might have underlying health problems - but still I'd think that 'most' wouldn't have died when they did without catching covid. 

[Rev]

4 hours ago, maxjam said:

Monday's Freedom Day really should be a last day of restrictions

You can stick your freedom Day where the sun don't shine.

Freedom Day is also my 24th Wedding anniversary, which we'll spend in the fookin garden thanks to Track and Trace.

I can't even distract Gert with dinner and champagne in these circumstances, I'll probably end up having to talk to her FFS!

[rammieib]

Just my prediction here but I don't see cases rising much beyond 70k in the next two weeks before they drop off.

1) School holidays so less LFT taking place.

2) LFT are soon going to cost money and not free. That will deter folk.

3) If you follow the rules now, you'll continue to apply your own rules after Monday. If you don't follow them now, Monday won't make much difference. So the only real issues will be the opening of clubs... what else is there which isn't already open?

4) The Delta variant went through India and then it declined. Can anyone shed a light why it didn't explode in India? They are now down to 30 to 40k confirmed cases a day, or in population terms thats the same as 1 to 2k in the UK. 

5) Zoe App isn't showing these current trends continuing at the moment. Its not been far wrong generally.

[ariotofmyown]

37 minutes ago, rammieib said:

Just my prediction here but I don't see cases rising much beyond 70k in the next two weeks before they drop off.

1) School holidays so less LFT taking place.

2) LFT are soon going to cost money and not free. That will deter folk.

3) If you follow the rules now, you'll continue to apply your own rules after Monday. If you don't follow them now, Monday won't make much difference. So the only real issues will be the opening of clubs... what else is there which isn't already open?

4) The Delta variant went through India and then it declined. Can anyone shed a light why it didn't explode in India? They are now down to 30 to 40k confirmed cases a day, or in population terms thats the same as 1 to 2k in the UK. 

5) Zoe App isn't showing these current trends continuing at the moment. Its not been far wrong generally.

Hopefully you are right

[Brammie Steve]

23 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

On this basis will you be wearing a mask and social distancing for the rest of your life?

Not yet!

[RoyMac5]

8 hours ago, rammieib said:

2) LFT are soon going to cost money and not free. That will deter folk.

This is the oddest (or not with this Govt.) decision out there - not been confirmed yet though I don't think.

[rammieib]

38 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

This is the oddest (or not with this Govt.) decision out there - not been confirmed yet though I don't think.

It’s even odder they are still being used at all for me.

USA has ditched them. Circa 1-5k false positives per day but missing 50% of cases.

Until we test symptoms instead of just testing and align with Europe then we will continuously have wrong numbers. Not to mention the count done on a PCR test being higher than other countries.

Then you get ridiculous advice from councils. Derbyshire county council new advise for sending children hole was listing just about any symptom of any type and the last one was “generally feeling unwell”. 
 

It’s simply ridiculous. I’m so genuinely happy for Monday.

[ariotofmyown]

27 minutes ago, rammieib said:

It’s even odder they are still being used at all for me.

USA has ditched them. Circa 1-5k false positives per day but missing 50% of cases.

Until we test symptoms instead of just testing and align with Europe then we will continuously have wrong numbers. Not to mention the count done on a PCR test being higher than other countries.

Then you get ridiculous advice from councils. Derbyshire county council new advise for sending children hole was listing just about any symptom of any type and the last one was “generally feeling unwell”. 
 

It’s simply ridiculous. I’m so genuinely happy for Monday.

It would be interesting to know the breakdown of positive results with symptoms vs no symptoms.

From hearing things from different people, I suspect they work well when you already have symptoms and pretty much know you have it.

But as they only work 50% of the time, I'm guessing they don't work very well when you don't have symptoms yet, but then go on to develop symptoms within a couple of days.

This 2nd scenario is obviously the key moment to prevent spreading.  As we are supposed to isolate for 10 days after coming into contact with a positive person, I assume we don't have great faith in any testing at this point. If so, people could simply test immediately, then carry on as normal with a negative test.

Again from different people's stories, symptoms seem to appear pretty quickly after contact with an infected person.

I know the 10 day isolation is because the virus can take some time to either show symptoms or produce a positive test.

But if the majority of people do see something within a couple of days, or not at all, could we reduce the 10 days down to 3ish days and be confident that most of the spreading will be stopped?

Are we causing loads of disruption having healthy people still isolating for a full 10 days, but causing people who can't easily isolate to sack the whole lot off, when 3 days would be much more doable?

I've never seen any stats on the above questions, surely we have them by now?

[Tyler Durden]

Was at the England Pakistan 20 20 match last night at Trent Bridge. No social distancing was just like the good old days. 

Be interested to see how many people who went will get pinged on their NHS app. I've got my turned off. 

[RoyMac5]

1 hour ago, rammieib said:

It’s even odder they are still being used at all for me.

USA has ditched them. Circa 1-5k false positives per day but missing 50% of cases.

Until we test symptoms instead of just testing and align with Europe then we will continuously have wrong numbers. Not to mention the count done on a PCR test being higher than other countries.

Then you get ridiculous advice from councils. Derbyshire county council new advise for sending children hole was listing just about any symptom of any type and the last one was “generally feeling unwell”. 
 

It’s simply ridiculous. I’m so genuinely happy for Monday.

Well yes, but what do you do if you think you have covid?

[Rev]

1 hour ago, ariotofmyown said:

As we are supposed to isolate for 10 days after coming into contact with a positive person, I assume we don't have great faith in any testing at this point. If so, people could simply test immediately, then carry on as normal with a negative test.

Again from different people's stories, symptoms seem to appear pretty quickly after contact with an infected person.

I know the 10 day isolation is because the virus can take some time to either show symptoms or produce a positive test.

Has this been changed? 

My son got pinged last Sunday, tested positive from DIY test Tuesday, confirmed by PCR Wednesday. 

My wife has just had a message from Track and Trace telling her to isolate upto and including Wednesday, which is 7 days.

I've had no message at all.

[Tamworthram]

11 hours ago, rammieib said:

Just my prediction here but I don't see cases rising much beyond 70k in the next two weeks before they drop off.

1) School holidays so less LFT taking place.

2) LFT are soon going to cost money and not free. That will deter folk.

3) If you follow the rules now, you'll continue to apply your own rules after Monday. If you don't follow them now, Monday won't make much difference. So the only real issues will be the opening of clubs... what else is there which isn't already open?

4) The Delta variant went through India and then it declined. Can anyone shed a light why it didn't explode in India? They are now down to 30 to 40k confirmed cases a day, or in population terms thats the same as 1 to 2k in the UK. 

5) Zoe App isn't showing these current trends continuing at the moment. Its not been far wrong generally.

I was thinking the same about India. Rates were very high for several weeks and then declined. I was trying to map our numbers against theirs (taking into account the massively different population sizes) to see how long before we can perhaps expect to numbers decline here but, I haven’t got around to looking at how they reacted (did they implement any sort of lockdown whilst we’re doing the complete opposite?).

[ariotofmyown]

2 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I was thinking the same about India. Rates were very high for several weeks and then declined. I was trying to map our numbers against theirs (taking into account the massively different population sizes) to see how long before we can perhaps expect to numbers decline here but, I haven’t got around to looking at how they reacted (did they implement any sort of lockdown whilst we’re doing the complete opposite?).

Guy in my team is in India and he was locked down until recently after they had that big spike

[Gone]

53 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Guy in my team is in India and he was locked down until recently after they had that big spike

Same here, the guys I work with in India have only just come out of lockdown, and it’s been a strict lockdown (where they can police it) 

[ariotofmyown]

2 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Same here, the guys I work with in India have only just come out of lockdown, and it’s been a strict lockdown (where they can police it) 

Shorter, strict lockdown certainly seem the best approach, like our first one that reduced cases massively.

Theoretically, 2 to 3 weeks of no one leaving their homes should mean the virus cannot spread.

We've had half-arsed restrictions since last September, that have twice allowed new variants to spread round the country.

I think we'd have all preferred 2 or 3 short term proper lockdowns over what we've had. The economy certainly would have preferred it.

Other countries have shown this is the way to deal with it.

[rammieib]

2 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Well yes, but what do you do if you think you have covid?

Book a PCR??????

[rammieib]

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

I was thinking the same about India. Rates were very high for several weeks and then declined. I was trying to map our numbers against theirs (taking into account the massively different population sizes) to see how long before we can perhaps expect to numbers decline here but, I haven’t got around to looking at how they reacted (did they implement any sort of lockdown whilst we’re doing the complete opposite?).

They did but this is also India. People rely on public transport and you don’t get 80% furlough money.