Predict the play off race

[Mucker1884]

This is the first season in donkeys years that I won't be abroad come PO Final day.  

I have never been to Wembley (new or old).

As a (reasonably) long time ST holder (and have renewed for next season), I suspect I'll be fairly close to the top of the list, when it comes to PO final ticket distribution.

Under those circumstances, you can bet your bottom my desire to be there this year is immense.

 

There is therefore absolutely no chance we will get there!

Sorry!  My fault!

[Ellafella]

11 hours ago, Mckram said:

Hate to be a mood killer but at the minute I just can’t see us beating Bristol City away. If we played them at home then I’d be feeling a lot different.

We don’t beat them away then no play offs...

Realistically we will not win at Ashton Gate but that is the sine qua non game.

[Topram]

We just miss out in 7th 

At the start of the season I’d of been happy with top 10.

His first job he’s brought in more younger players given more players a chance our team isn’t a retirement home anymore. Our consistency has cost  us the play offs but at times we’ve seen some good football. 

Overall positive season plenty to work on in the summer trust still in Frank seems him and Mel have a good relationship and understanding. 

Hopefully I still hope we do find our way in I’ll be there every game bar Bristol away, big last 5  

[DRBee]

If we can win our next two games we will be in with a chance. If not , away games at Brsitol and Swansea will kill us off as confidence will be shot.

A draw at Bristol might then be good enough. But our inconsistency means my confidence is shot already.

[ramboy63]

14 hours ago, Rammy03 said:

Call me optimistic but here's how I see it...

The race for the play offs is between 4 teams: Villa, Bristol, Middlesbrough and Derby.

Borough have robbed 6 points from us this season and I know we ourselves haven't been great as of recent but personally I think they are crap. 

For me Bristol have come out of nowhere and like us, can be a bit on and off. The game we play against them will be huge but when it comes down to it, I don't think they have it in them. I am tipping Bristol to bottle the play offs and finish seventh.

Aston villa look too good at the moment and are churning out results even when the performances over the course of 90 minutes aren't great. Them beating Bristol play a big part in this so I think they will solidly finish 5th.

We are great at pride park but awful away. I don't know whether this is to do with the timing of the game or the preparation but at Blackburn, we were poo. I'm glad that we knocked 4 past Bolton because now I think the players will wake up, smell the danger and perform. 

Sheffield United will be the unfortunate team to finish 3rd, West Brom 4th, Villa 5th and Derby 6th.

We have played Sheffield United and beat them at home however they have done the same. It will be a tight couple of games but they don't have as much about them as Leeds for example so we will beat them and progress to the play off final. Sliding West Brom will fall even further and lose to villa in their semi final.

That leaves a Derby Vs villa play off final. History will repeat itself and villa will fall at the final hurdle again. Derby go up. 

 

Right?

Cuckoo

[GenBr]

6 hours ago, superzak said:

It will be interesting if it goes down to the last game of the season...WBA will be no pushovers at P.P

They were at the Hawthorns though. Hopefully we can replicate that again especially at home.

[EssendonRam]

The way I see it, we’ve left ourselves virtually no wriggle room such that it’ll come down to the final day between us and Bristol City...as the best case scenario for us. Even then, I struggle to see a scenario whereby we gain points viz Bristol City on the final day given we host WBA and they’re visiting Hull.

So we must at least draw Bristol City away or we’ve expended our last bit of wriggle room.

Bristol, for mine, are likely to earn at least 7 points (Reading (H)-W, Wednesday (A)-D, Derby (H)-D, Milwall (A)-D, Hull (A)-D) while we’ll be doing well to pick up 9 (Birmingham (A)-W, QPR (H)-W, Bristol City (A)-D, Swansea (A)-D, WBA (H)-D).

While both clubs’ remaining fixtures are tricky, if I was a betting man (which I’m not), I’d think there’s more upside in their draw and a greater risk of downside in ours.

That said, it’d be just like us to suddenly string together a run of 8 wins to finish the season...

 

[Rampage]

Semi 1. Leeds/Sheff Utd v Bristol City/Rams

Semi 2. WBA v Villa

Final - Sheff Utd v Villa

Winner - Villa on penalties aet

[StockholmRam]

14 hours ago, eddie said:

I predicted 8th at the start of the season, and although I am hopeful, I still think that's where we will finish.

Come on, Derby - surprise me.

Im with you Eddie. Pray to be proved wrong. I think we need to not lose again between now and the remainder of the league fixtures, realistically we kinda need to win all our games. Our previous form this season says we wont do it. 

Plenty of twists and turns yet. Im reckoning that sh/thouse Pulis lot will be 6th with Bristol 7th and Derby 8th. 

Please pretty please let me be wrong. 

[StockholmRam]

16 minutes ago, EssendonRam said:

The way I see it, we’ve left ourselves virtually no wriggle room such that it’ll come down to the final day between us and Bristol City...as the best case scenario for us. Even then, I struggle to see a scenario whereby we gain points viz Bristol City on the final day given we host WBA and they’re visiting Hull.

So we must at least draw Bristol City away or we’ve expended our last bit of wriggle room.

Bristol, for mine, are likely to earn at least 7 points (Reading (H)-W, Wednesday (A)-D, Derby (H)-D, Milwall (A)-D, Hull (A)-D) while we’ll be doing well to pick up 9 (Birmingham (A)-W, QPR (H)-W, Bristol City (A)-D, Swansea (A)-D, WBA (H)-D).

While both clubs’ remaining fixtures are tricky, if I was a betting man (which I’m not), I’d think there’s more upside in their draw and a greater risk of downside in ours.

That said, it’d be just like us to suddenly string together a run of 8 wins to finish the season...

 

Putting together a run of 8 wins would be the most Unlike Derby thing I have ever seen. 

[Remy the hare]

2nd - Leeds - 90

3rd Sheff u - 87

4th WBA - 82

5th Villa - 76

6th Bristol - 73

7th Boro - 72

8th Derby ☹️ - 69

9th Sheff w - 64

10th - Florist- 63

Last 5 for me - Brum city - draw, QPR - win, Bristol - lose, Swansea - draw, WBA - draw and this is being optimistic.

Villa v Sheff u PO final, experience will see Villa pull it off. The appointment of Dean Smith being a key factor also.

What is a shame for me this season is how Frank and co. couldn’t tap into / recreate those 5/6 matches at the end of October early November again. I am sure he has tried everything to get that back but confidence is key. The first 20 mins v Boro away was the best footy I’ve seen us play since the Brighton home leg of the PO semi in 2014.

 

[plymouthram]

Squeeky Bum time, thats for all of the top 8 teams. Even Norwich will be looking over their shoulder thinking will their 4 point gap be enough to see off Leeds catching them. So lets look at the key promotion games left. Good Friday fixtures Bristol v Reading (k.o 12pm) Bristol's home form currently ranked 14th and already lost 6 times at home, Reading picking up some form of late having only lost 2 since the begining of March and recently drew at Norwich. Sheff utd v Forest (k.o 12.30), Should be a home win seeing they are still chasing that 2nd spot. Birmingham v Rams (k.o 3pm) Brum are only 17th in home form only won 7 at home, Rams have 6 away wins. Can't call this one, but a draw would'nt be bad. Bolton v Villa (k.o 3pm) Bolton have the worse home form in the Championship and Villa's is 7th best, but Bolton need a win to stay up (could be a draw). Leeds v Wigan (k.o 3pm), Leeds have the best home form in the Championship, where Wigan have the worse away record. Home win? M'Boro v Stoke (k.o 3pm) Boro have lost 7 matches at home where Stoke have only lost 6 away. Both don't score many or concede many, 0-0 draw looks favourite. WBA v Hull (k.o 3pm) WBA have only lost 4 at home, Hull have lost 11 away. Home banker I think. Norwich v Wednesday (k.o 7.45pm) This kick off time favours the leaders, knowing what their rivals have done, could be a draw, but I fancy home win.                                               Easter Monday= Villa v Millwall (k.o 1pm) Villa only lost 3 at home where Millwall have only won 3 away. Should be a home win, but Millwall are fighting to stay up and won't be safe going into this game. Rams v QPR (k.o 3pm) Rams only lost 3 at home while QPR have lost 11 on their travels, a must win game for Rams. Hull v Sheff utd (k.o 3pm) Hull are ranked 6th best home form having only lost 5. Sheff utd have only lost 5 on their travels. I'm predicting a draw. Forest v M'Boro (k.o 3pm) Forest have lost 6 at home, Boro have lost only 5 away. We need Forest to win for us on this one. But I feel a draw is favourite. Reading v WBA (k.o 3pm) Reading are in form, but I feel this game will give goals and the fire power of the Baggies will come out on top. Wednesday v Bristol (k.o 3pm) Wednesday have only lost 4 at home, Bristol have only lost 6 away. Tough to call, but I'm going for a home win. Stoke v Norwich (k.o 3pm) Stoke only lost 6 at home, but Norwich have the best away record in the Championship. Away win I feel. Brentford v Leeds (k.o 5.15pm) Brentford's home record is ranked 4th amassing 40 pts of their 54 total so far this season. I see them winning by the odd goal.                                                                                                                                                                      Remaining other key games= 27th April Bristol v Rams (draw), M'Boro v Reading (home win), WBA v Rotherham (home win), Sheff utd v Rotherham (home win) Norwich v Blackburn (home win). 28th April= Leeds v Villa (home win). 30th April= Millwall v Bristol (draw). 1st May= Swansea v Rams (away win). 5th May= Villa v Norwich (home win) Rams v WBA (home win) Hull v Bristol (home win) Ipswich v Leeds (away) Rotherham v M'Boro (draw) Stoke v Sheff utd (draw) Final Table = 1st Norwich 95pts, 2nd Leeds 91pts, 3rd Sheff utd 86pts, 4th WBA 82pts, 5th Villa 76pts, 6th Derby 74pts, 7th M'Boro 70pts, 8th Bristol 68 pts

[Rammy03]

23 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Squeeky Bum time, thats for all of the top 8 teams. Even Norwich will be looking over their shoulder thinking will their 4 point gap be enough to see off Leeds catching them. So lets look at the key promotion games left. Good Friday fixtures Bristol v Reading (k.o 12pm) Bristol's home form currently ranked 14th and already lost 6 times at home, Reading picking up some form of late having only lost 2 since the begining of March and recently drew at Norwich. Sheff utd v Forest (k.o 12.30), Should be a home win seeing they are still chasing that 2nd spot. Birmingham v Rams (k.o 3pm) Brum are only 17th in home form only won 7 at home, Rams have 6 away wins. Can't call this one, but a draw would'nt be bad. Bolton v Villa (k.o 3pm) Bolton have the worse home form in the Championship and Villa's is 7th best, but Bolton need a win to stay up (could be a draw). Leeds v Wigan (k.o 3pm), Leeds have the best home form in the Championship, where Wigan have the worse away record. Home win? M'Boro v Stoke (k.o 3pm) Boro have lost 7 matches at home where Stoke have only lost 6 away. Both don't score many or concede many, 0-0 draw looks favourite. WBA v Hull (k.o 3pm) WBA have only lost 4 at home, Hull have lost 11 away. Home banker I think. Norwich v Wednesday (k.o 7.45pm) This kick off time favours the leaders, knowing what their rivals have done, could be a draw, but I fancy home win.                                               Easter Monday= Villa v Millwall (k.o 1pm) Villa only lost 3 at home where Millwall have only won 3 away. Should be a home win, but Millwall are fighting to stay up and won't be safe going into this game. Rams v QPR (k.o 3pm) Rams only lost 3 at home while QPR have lost 11 on their travels, a must win game for Rams. Hull v Sheff utd (k.o 3pm) Hull are ranked 6th best home form having only lost 5. Sheff utd have only lost 5 on their travels. I'm predicting a draw. Forest v M'Boro (k.o 3pm) Forest have lost 6 at home, Boro have lost only 5 away. We need Forest to win for us on this one. But I feel a draw is favourite. Reading v WBA (k.o 3pm) Reading are in form, but I feel this game will give goals and the fire power of the Baggies will come out on top. Wednesday v Bristol (k.o 3pm) Wednesday have only lost 4 at home, Bristol have only lost 6 away. Tough to call, but I'm going for a home win. Stoke v Norwich (k.o 3pm) Stoke only lost 6 at home, but Norwich have the best away record in the Championship. Away win I feel. Brentford v Leeds (k.o 5.15pm) Brentford's home record is ranked 4th amassing 40 pts of their 54 total so far this season. I see them winning by the odd goal.                                                                                                                                                                      Remaining other key games= 27th April Bristol v Rams (draw), M'Boro v Reading (home win), WBA v Rotherham (home win), Sheff utd v Rotherham (home win) Norwich v Blackburn (home win). 28th April= Leeds v Villa (home win). 30th April= Millwall v Bristol (draw). 1st May= Swansea v Rams (away win). 5th May= Villa v Norwich (home win) Rams v WBA (home win) Hull v Bristol (home win) Ipswich v Leeds (away) Rotherham v M'Boro (draw) Stoke v Sheff utd (draw) Final Table = 1st Norwich 95pts, 2nd Leeds 91pts, 3rd Sheff utd 86pts, 4th WBA 82pts, 5th Villa 76pts, 6th Derby 74pts, 7th M'Boro 70pts, 8th Bristol 68 pts

My god I hope you're right

[DesertRam]

If we get into the playoffs it will mean we are in a rich vein of form, and we stand

a good chance who ever it is!

Our protagonists have some tricky games as well - anything can happen   ?  ?

[erathirea]

Villa will win their next 2 (Bolton away and Millwall home) to effectively seal 5th (maybe even nicking 4th but that's irrelevant) - Leeds Away and Norwich to follow is more likely to impact the race for 2nd.

Hull and Sheff Wed have too much to do considering their remaining fixtures - Hull have West Brom, Sheff Utd, Swansea and Bristol, whilst the latter have Norwich and Preston away, with Bristol in between.

 

As has been mentioned, that leaves 3 (Bristol, Boro and us). I think we will all win this Friday (Reading H, Stoke H, Brum A), though it would be very Pulis to draw 0-0 with Stoke.

The Monday is trickier, Bristol have to go to Wednesday where they will get a draw I think, as will Boro at Forest. We should beat QPR. That would leave us and Bristol a point clear of Boro with a game in hand and very similar goal difference.

The next Saturday is (obviously) massive. Beat Bristol, and we're one win (from 2 games) from 6th (or vice versa!). But I think it'll be a rubbish game and finish as a cagey draw, which will allow Boro to overtake us both by beating Reading.

Then the "games in hand", which I reckon will both be draws, probably. Millwall likely to still need a point or two to stay up, and I just don't fancy us against Swansea.

This leaves us in the delightful position of all being on 71 points with one game left. Bristol will lose to Hull, whilst us and Boro will win - West Brom will likely rest some players for playoffs, whilst Boro will consign Rotherham to relegation. We will make it on goal difference.

 

I think and hope that United finish 3rd, in this situation, as I don't think we've got a chance against Leeds over 2 legs unfortunately. West Brom v Villa will be interesting, and I'd be hoping for West Brom to prevail (as we haven't got a great record against Villa this season...)

 

But then, all of this is complete guesswork, so feel free to ignore me entirely.

 

 

[Remy the hare]

15 hours ago, plymouthram said:

Squeeky Bum time, thats for all of the top 8 teams. Even Norwich will be looking over their shoulder thinking will their 4 point gap be enough to see off Leeds catching them. So lets look at the key promotion games left. Good Friday fixtures Bristol v Reading (k.o 12pm) Bristol's home form currently ranked 14th and already lost 6 times at home, Reading picking up some form of late having only lost 2 since the begining of March and recently drew at Norwich. Sheff utd v Forest (k.o 12.30), Should be a home win seeing they are still chasing that 2nd spot. Birmingham v Rams (k.o 3pm) Brum are only 17th in home form only won 7 at home, Rams have 6 away wins. Can't call this one, but a draw would'nt be bad. Bolton v Villa (k.o 3pm) Bolton have the worse home form in the Championship and Villa's is 7th best, but Bolton need a win to stay up (could be a draw). Leeds v Wigan (k.o 3pm), Leeds have the best home form in the Championship, where Wigan have the worse away record. Home win? M'Boro v Stoke (k.o 3pm) Boro have lost 7 matches at home where Stoke have only lost 6 away. Both don't score many or concede many, 0-0 draw looks favourite. WBA v Hull (k.o 3pm) WBA have only lost 4 at home, Hull have lost 11 away. Home banker I think. Norwich v Wednesday (k.o 7.45pm) This kick off time favours the leaders, knowing what their rivals have done, could be a draw, but I fancy home win.                                               Easter Monday= Villa v Millwall (k.o 1pm) Villa only lost 3 at home where Millwall have only won 3 away. Should be a home win, but Millwall are fighting to stay up and won't be safe going into this game. Rams v QPR (k.o 3pm) Rams only lost 3 at home while QPR have lost 11 on their travels, a must win game for Rams. Hull v Sheff utd (k.o 3pm) Hull are ranked 6th best home form having only lost 5. Sheff utd have only lost 5 on their travels. I'm predicting a draw. Forest v M'Boro (k.o 3pm) Forest have lost 6 at home, Boro have lost only 5 away. We need Forest to win for us on this one. But I feel a draw is favourite. Reading v WBA (k.o 3pm) Reading are in form, but I feel this game will give goals and the fire power of the Baggies will come out on top. Wednesday v Bristol (k.o 3pm) Wednesday have only lost 4 at home, Bristol have only lost 6 away. Tough to call, but I'm going for a home win. Stoke v Norwich (k.o 3pm) Stoke only lost 6 at home, but Norwich have the best away record in the Championship. Away win I feel. Brentford v Leeds (k.o 5.15pm) Brentford's home record is ranked 4th amassing 40 pts of their 54 total so far this season. I see them winning by the odd goal.                                                                                                                                                                      Remaining other key games= 27th April Bristol v Rams (draw), M'Boro v Reading (home win), WBA v Rotherham (home win), Sheff utd v Rotherham (home win) Norwich v Blackburn (home win). 28th April= Leeds v Villa (home win). 30th April= Millwall v Bristol (draw). 1st May= Swansea v Rams (away win). 5th May= Villa v Norwich (home win) Rams v WBA (home win) Hull v Bristol (home win) Ipswich v Leeds (away) Rotherham v M'Boro (draw) Stoke v Sheff utd (draw) Final Table = 1st Norwich 95pts, 2nd Leeds 91pts, 3rd Sheff utd 86pts, 4th WBA 82pts, 5th Villa 76pts, 6th Derby 74pts, 7th M'Boro 70pts, 8th Bristol 68 pts

Blind faith @plymouthram ? and wishful thinking. 

[Mucker1884]

11 minutes ago, erathirea said:

Villa will win their next 2 (Bolton away and Millwall home) to effectively seal 5th (maybe even nicking 4th but that's irrelevant) - Leeds Away and Norwich to follow is more likely to impact the race for 2nd.

Hull and Sheff Wed have too much to do considering their remaining fixtures - Hull have West Brom, Sheff Utd, Swansea and Bristol, whilst the latter have Norwich and Preston away, with Bristol in between.

 

As has been mentioned, that leaves 3 (Bristol, Boro and us). I think we will all win this Friday (Reading H, Stoke H, Brum A), though it would be very Pulis to draw 0-0 with Stoke.

The Monday is trickier, Bristol have to go to Wednesday where they will get a draw I think, as will Boro at Forest. We should beat QPR. That would leave us and Bristol a point clear of Boro with a game in hand and very similar goal difference.

The next Saturday is (obviously) massive. Beat Bristol, and we're one win (from 2 games) from 6th (or vice versa!). But I think it'll be a rubbish game and finish as a cagey draw, which will allow Boro to overtake us both by beating Reading.

Then the "games in hand", which I reckon will both be draws, probably. Millwall likely to still need a point or two to stay up, and I just don't fancy us against Swansea.

This leaves us in the delightful position of all being on 71 points with one game left. Bristol will lose to Hull, whilst us and Boro will win - West Brom will likely rest some players for playoffs, whilst Boro will consign Rotherham to relegation. We will make it on goal difference.

 

I think and hope that United finish 3rd, in this situation, as I don't think we've got a chance against Leeds over 2 legs unfortunately. West Brom v Villa will be interesting, and I'd be hoping for West Brom to prevail (as we haven't got a great record against Villa this season...)

 

But then, all of this is complete guesswork, so feel free to ignore me entirely.

 

 

 

No, No.  I like it.  I like it a lot!

And what a fantastic last day (of the regular season) that would be.  

No, I'm all for this.  My favourite post in this thread.

 

...Don't hold out much hope for the old ticker though, in fairness!!  

[MuespachRam]

It’s totally down to the Bristol City away game, winner of that is in the play offs...so yep it’s over for another season. 

[Inglorius]

1 hour ago, MuespachRam said:

It’s totally down to the Bristol City away game, winner of that is in the play offs...so yep it’s over for another season. 

Just saying it's down to the result of the Bristol City game is over simplifying things in my opinion.

[uttoxram75]

We'll be at home on Saturday 11th May in the first leg, (early/late kick off depending on if we finish 6th or 5th) with the away leg on 14th or 15th.