PistoldPete2 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, brady1993 said: That's actually really surprising and interesting. I wonder if it holds up over the entire season. My guess would have been that it'd have a general positive correlation with the curve actually taking something of an s shape i.e. much more likely to lose at very low possession levels, much more likely to win at very high levels but flatter in between. If a team gets a lead they tend to sit on it, so the team with greater possession may well end up losing. Also Leicester won the Premier League with very low possession stats and maybe that is the model that Gary is working to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyD Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, HantsRam said: Not me feller. I agree that there needs to be very clear and careful communication about what you are and are not saying, when you use stats to frame ANY prediction. It's my profession (actuary). I also agree that arguing whether or not we are in a "false" position is facile. For me, I would be limiting the stat's use to giving an indication (note NOT a prediction) of whether the current position is - on balance - likely to be maintained or not. FWIW I would NEVER have concluded that we could not catch teams 6 points ahead of us. Its not impossible to catch Wolves. But as the games go by and the gap doesn't close, then it becomes less and less likely. Sorry, Hants, should have made it clearer I was asking the original poster Good points by the way - couldn't agree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van der MoodHoover Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, BobbyD said: Sorry, Hants, should have made it clearer I was asking the original poster Good points by the way - couldn't agree more No worries mate - soz for misunderstanding. Stick with the "reasonable sceptic" position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topram Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Ellafella said: Good Lord..I'm now out of breath. Bloody hell better not posting on this if you aren't great with your grammar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, BobbyD said: Sorry, Hants, should have made it clearer I was asking the original poster Good points by the way - couldn't agree more It was, you're right. He's promised to keep on making his predictions until the seasons end, if it helps us get where we want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 hours ago, brady1993 said: Interestingly just found this from today: https://amp.theguardian.com/football/blog/2018/jan/04/premier-league-possession-manchester-city Johnathan Wilson's article are usually great, likewise when he is on Guardian podcast. Like the theory about how teams used to panic when they had no possession, but now they want it. Could Gary be building a style fit for the Prem. Well, fit for when we play the top sides. Games against the other 14 or so teams could get dull when no one want the ball! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said: Johnathan Wilson's article are usually great, likewise when he is on Guardian podcast. Like the theory about how teams used to panic when they had no possession, but now they want it. Could Gary be building a style fit for the Prem. Well, fit for when we play the top sides. Games against the other 14 or so teams could get dull when no one want the ball! Well that's something to look forward to,cheers for that Not sure this premiership racket sounds like much fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van der MoodHoover Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 8 hours ago, ariotofmyown said: Johnathan Wilson's article are usually great, likewise when he is on Guardian podcast. Like the theory about how teams used to panic when they had no possession, but now they want it. Could Gary be building a style fit for the Prem. Well, fit for when we play the top sides. Games against the other 14 or so teams could get dull when no one want the ball! A good point. It occurred to me that building a team for counter-attacking only really makes sense if the other team are attacking! Will it end up like rugby union around 20 year ago when England and others just hoofed the ball as far as possible to the opposition to try to force the mistake? Deadly dull to watch. Imagine an allardyce v pulis match as big centre halves lump the ball to each other trying to get the opponent to attack so they can launch their counter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EssendonRam Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 On 3/01/2018 at 23:28, jimbo jones said: This is what I like to call bull**** stats, where people have looked far too much into something. Before I agree with you and call bulltish, wouldn't this measure mean we won a certain playoff final and have actually been in the Premiership for the last few years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plymouthram Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 On 03/01/2018 at 12:32, zaragozaram said: By any real measure we are exactly where we should be in the league. - Goals scored, 2nd Highest - Goal conceded, 2nd Lowest - Amount of wins, Joint 2nd Highest - Amount of Losses, Joint 2nd Lowest But most importantly - Points gained, 2nd Highest You´re welcome These stats are much more factual. Top marks Mr Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannable Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Are we succumbing to the dreaded xG? Burnley have… Ah well, **** happens. Let’s have a drink and a song next home game youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dimmu Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 11 hours ago, cannable said: Are we succumbing to the dreaded xG? Burnley have… Ah well, **** happens. Let’s have a drink and a song next home game youth. I thought about his thread too. Even though I don't think OPTA's algorithm is very valid, we could be talking about regression toward the mean in some scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dimmu Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Another step is taken. Mean, here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sexydadbod Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 One of the most important new stats in football. We aren’t as clinical as we were previously and we are losing points as a results. Our form earlier this season was not sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
europia Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 37 minutes ago, McLovin said: One of the most important new stats in football. We aren’t as clinical as we were previously and we are losing points as a results. Our form earlier this season was not sustainable. I wonder how we would things would have turned out if we had given Warnock a go at some point during Mels managerial merry-go-round. He might not be everyones cup of tea, but he seems to have what it takes in terms of giving teams sustainability, resilience etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rampage Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, europia said: I wonder how we would things would have turned out if we had given Warnock a go at some point during Mels managerial merry-go-round. He might not be everyones cup of tea, but he seems to have what it takes in terms of giving teams sustainability, resilience etc. etc. Got 8 promotions and now looking for Number 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sexydadbod Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 On 03/01/2018 at 14:54, duncanjwitham said: Obviously all the usual lies, damn lies and statistics applies, but it does back up how I've been seeing the matches this season - we tend to create a few really good chances and by-and-large take them. But we give up a few really good chances as well, and mostly get away with them (a Carson wonder-save, a great last-ditch tackle, a horrific miss from the opposition etc). So that's not to say we don't deserve to be where we are or anything, but the margins between winning and losing have been razor-thin. If the forwards start missing a few more chances, and the defenders start getting a bit sloppy, those narrow wins are going become draws and defeats. Great post, this is exactly what is happening now. Statistics shouldn’t be written off, they all have their own purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanish Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 15:54, duncanjwitham said: Obviously all the usual lies, damn lies and statistics applies, but it does back up how I've been seeing the matches this season - we tend to create a few really good chances and by-and-large take them. But we give up a few really good chances as well, and mostly get away with them (a Carson wonder-save, a great last-ditch tackle, a horrific miss from the opposition etc). So that's not to say we don't deserve to be where we are or anything, but the margins between winning and losing have been razor-thin. If the forwards start missing a few more chances, and the defenders start getting a bit sloppy, those narrow wins are going become draws and defeats. spot on. A poster said that football is not black and white white is correct apart from one thing, if you convert most of your chances and your defence does not concede that equates to points and a high league position. The margins have been tight and we have been fortunate at both ends of the pitch. Tom's shot would have gone in and Carson's 1:1 save would have been pushed away from the attacker before xmas. Nothing fundamental has changed and there is no reason why we won't return to winning ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramsbottom Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 14:54, duncanjwitham said: Obviously all the usual lies, damn lies and statistics applies, but it does back up how I've been seeing the matches this season - we tend to create a few really good chances and by-and-large take them. But we give up a few really good chances as well, and mostly get away with them (a Carson wonder-save, a great last-ditch tackle, a horrific miss from the opposition etc). So that's not to say we don't deserve to be where we are or anything, but the margins between winning and losing have been razor-thin. If the forwards start missing a few more chances, and the defenders start getting a bit sloppy, those narrow wins are going become draws and defeats. So like last night then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rab a dab doo Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 We are not in false position, we are where we are on merit. This will also be the case with our final league position. Over a season everything even's itself out and you finish where deserve to. Ok, we were all disappointed we have let a good position slip but all is not lost (yet). There are quite a few games to go. The incisive finishing/luck we getting a few months ago seems to have momentarily deserted us. The big difference between this season and ones before as that don't lose many matches, only 6 the 2nd best in league. We are just drawing too many games at the moment but we are creating chances. which will eventually result in goals and the defence has been relatively sound. Our bogie month of 'February' is also about finish after this Saturday's game. So chin up lads we can still push for automatic or go via the play-off route if we have too. The season is not finished yet so banish the doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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