SaintRam Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 16 hours ago, McLovin said: Great post, this is exactly what is happening now. Statistics shouldn’t be written off, they all have their own purposes. Although, expected goals are based on chances created, and our chances have gone through the roof since we were scoring a lot, it's not as if we're suddenly matching the statistics, we're just as out of whack with them but in the opposite direction. We're unable to score now that our expected goals are picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angieram Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Last night's expected goals. We were using these stats to prove we weren't as good as our results so are we now using them to prove we are better than our results or still using them to prove we're not as good as our results? Confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete2 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 12 minutes ago, angieram said: Last night's expected goals. We were using these stats to prove we weren't as good as our results so are we now using them to prove we are better than our results or still using them to prove we're not as good as our results? Confused. I dont see how leeds could have expected one goal . they had three shots, two they scored from and the other when Carson saved only for it to rebound onto their player who scored. We missed so many chaces in the last two games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I imagine after Wednesday our expected goals will plummet given how many missed chances we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Anyone remember the old pools predictor advertised endelessly on Radio Luxembourg. The Horace Batchelor "Infradraw" system at Keynsham Bristol, spelt Kay ee why en ess atch emm! Gotta love radio ads even then. That was based on some sort of predicted goals scored and other factors. Obviously didn't work or everyone would have done it. Years ago I did a Weibull analysis of playing time between goals, either from match start or last goal in any match. I though maybe there would be a pattern that if you scored, then the time to the next goal due to confidence, opposition tactics etc would come down. I expected a front loaded distribution.. Then you could predict in a match who would score or not and win a fortune (the confidence of youth!!). It came out as random distribution, no help at all. As football is essentially a series of discrete events with only minor shifts away from a random outcome I guess I should not have been surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 29 minutes ago, FindernRam said: I imagine after Wednesday our expected goals will plummet given how many missed chances we had. Expected goals are based on the chances you create, not the chances you take. There is some nuance to it, which is a little tricky to go into it, but it's essentially based on the overall averages of shots to goal ratios across football in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsnip Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 Maybe not 13th but 12th is a very real possibility now. I'd be interested to see this table updated now, there's a distinct lack of quality chances created - you don't need a super computer to see that. But maybe this stat should've been more carefully considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsnip Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 On 03/01/2018 at 12:26, RamNut said: On 03/01/2018 at 12:16, Carl Sagan said: That will probably be the final league table You were only half joking weren't you? @RamNut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IlsonDerby Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 On 03/01/2018 at 12:16, Carl Sagan said: Something I've jjust come across is the metric called "xG" which stands for "expected goals. Apparently it's an Opta thing and is explained in this video: According to this statistic, we are massively over-performing based on the chances we're creating. If teams scored and conceded based on the quality of the chances, the top three would be Wolves, Villa and Cardiff with the Rams down in 13th place: It is only one measure, but it's quite sobering to see, claiming we're not creating enough good chances and we're conceding too many good opportunities to be where we are. Or is it that we have such great quality in attack and defence that we're able to comfortably out-perform the rest of the division in these areas, and will be able to maintain our position? Could you source an up to date version of this? I’ve been mentioning EXG a lot in my posts but haven’t had the latest table to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted April 15, 2018 Share Posted April 15, 2018 On 03/01/2018 at 12:16, Carl Sagan said: Something I've jjust come across is the metric called "xG" which stands for "expected goals. Apparently it's an Opta thing and is explained in this video: According to this statistic, we are massively over-performing based on the chances we're creating. If teams scored and conceded based on the quality of the chances, the top three would be Wolves, Villa and Cardiff with the Rams down in 13th place: It is only one measure, but it's quite sobering to see, claiming we're not creating enough good chances and we're conceding too many good opportunities to be where we are. Or is it that we have such great quality in attack and defence that we're able to comfortably out-perform the rest of the division in these areas, and will be able to maintain our position? Out of interest what do previous seasons look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted April 15, 2018 Author Share Posted April 15, 2018 6 hours ago, IlsonDerby said: Could you source an up to date version of this? I’ve been mentioning EXG a lot in my posts but haven’t had the latest table to back it up. 2 hours ago, RoyMac5 said: Out of interest what do previous seasons look like? Can't now find where I got that table from (grrr). Best I can do is a recent table of goals scored vs xG. According to this we've scored the fifth most in the league, from the thirteenth best amount of chances. That said, Wolves are top scorers but have apparently only created the sixth best number of chances, so it looks statistical nonsense. I do know of someone who is working on the table so if they post it I'll add it here. No idea about previous seasons but that's a good question to see if the model is useful in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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