Ghost of Clough

Close to regaining the lead.

Peterborough's new winger signing (Olakigbe) sent off for a 2nd yellow. Poku still meant to be out for a few more games due to injury too

Allen on for Perry at half time. Hawkins on for Bardell just after the hour mark as he builds up his fitness after returning from injury.

I'm guessing the back 4 now is: Moloney (RB), Bartley, Gill, and Hawkins (LB)

Does anyone know if we've scored yet? 😉

Edit: I cursed us.. 1-1

55 minutes ago, On the Ram Page said:

Can you provide any evidence at all for your comments regarding the research undertaken or his abilities? I doubt it and if not, it will be another of your posts which will go in the trash can.

Statistically, Fornah was similar to Smith. Fornah also played as the '8' when at Reading, similar to Smith's role at most clubs he's been at.

Warne commented that he expected Fornah to be more like what we've seen from Adams.

Adams and Smith are very different players, so signing a player with similar attributes to Smith and expecting someone like Adams could be considered "poorly researched".

2 minutes ago, SKHunter said:

Buxton in the quarter final of the Derbyshire Senior Cup tonight.  Could be interesting.

It'll be a good test for the lads to prove what level they're currently playing at and help them earn loan moves. For reference, Oseni is currently on loan to Rushall who are 4 points behind Buxton and he got 78 minutes at the weekend. The suspensions KRobinson and Fapetu picked up against Forest in PL2 won't apply to this fixture so both will be in the squad.

It'll be interesting to see if we do put any first teamers in there for match fitness - Fornah and Smith in particular need minutes.

6 minutes ago, Raich Carter said:

With Bird going and Hourihane's contract up at the end of the year, I wonder if Adams + Fornah is his plan for next year? Suspect Smith will go too.

I can't see Fornah being more than backup to Adams, and actually see us selling him. I'm going to make the assumption Warne will go with 343 next season, so Adams (if we sign him) would be partnered with a new signing who offers a bit of creativity. Thompson (if retained) and 2 other new signigns rotated in now and then. Sibley (if retained) mostly used as competition with Elder at LWB.

1 hour ago, TheHomunculusLives said:

I'd be really interested to understand why those 'in the know' about the Academy on this board, like @Ghost of Clough, don't feel Weston has what it takes to be part of the first team squad at Derby? Every time I see him I'm impressed by his skill and finishing ability, are there other factors that are holding him back - maybe his size/physicality?

He's a #10 so would need to be paired with someoen like Collins (or Brown), and lately he's been played on the wing for the U21s, with Wheeldon and Fapetu used in the AM role instead.
He needs to add consistency to his end product (ony 1 goal and 2 assists in 12 PL2 games since season), but he should have been allowed to build on his 1 goal and 1 assist during his only (brief) first team appearance for us.

2 minutes ago, simmoram1995 said:

If we go up we will need to invest heavily and wisely upgrading the team.

GK - maybe an upgrade 

RB- generally ok

LB- yes 

CB - maybe an upgrade on Nelson 

CM- at least two 

W- maybe another RM 

SK- 2-3 

your talking maybe double figures again 

Too many variables to say at this point. League determines how many, intended formation determines type of players and positions.

With a healthy squad size of 23 and assuming we retain everyone who is under contract for next season, we are 10 players short. I could realistically see Wildsmith, Forsyth, Sibley, Adams, Thompson and Collins all having a role to play within the squad, even in the Championship. That's potentially just 4 players we need to repalce in the summer. However, I think we'll see 1 or 2 players who are under contract loaned out or sold.

23 minutes ago, Wolfie said:

Have we never had an analyst here before? or at least recently. Seems odd if so.

I just assumed all clubs did this nowadays.

See earlier post: 

6 hours ago, Ram@Lincoln said:

Back to New Zealand as a director of football.

https://www.friendsoffootballnz.com/2023/12/08/top-analyst-to-return-to-new-zealand-for-director-of-football-role-at-papamoa/

2 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

No. PW only wants players who will improve the team. Then there's the added complication of the "business plan". I get the impression many are thinking "roll on the summer then we can go out and spend". Problem is that isn't going to happen. Why not? David Clowes has told us that the club will be self sufficient and the financial situation will be sustainable. To me, that means we will spend no more than we have generated in income. 

We lost £6.8M in the first 9 months following the exit from administration. Gates are around 690 a game down on average so I'm not expecting the accounts for this season to be suddenly showing a profit. That means, for next season, as with this season, we will have ticket receipts, sponsorship and advertising revenue and that's it. If we're still in L1 then we'll have a similar amount to this season to spend. If we go up I'd expect us to have slightly more. That means we will still be limited on transfer and loan fees and on wages. That will put "proven" players like Clarke-Harris out of our budgetary range. It is unlikely we will see 7 figure buys. What will we see, then? More of the same? Some of it, yes, Apparently PW is now wanting to look abroad which is a good idea. 

I'd also be more than happy for PW to start showing some faith in the likes of Fapetu, Robinson, Weston etc. One would hope he gets some pressure to do so as Clowes was determined to retain the Academy's status and ignoring their better prospects goes against what DC appears to want... and he holds the purse strings. Next season, the kids will all be a year older, wiser, bigger and stronger. I say, give them a chance.

Due to the sales of Knight and Bird we will have received a bit of profit to balacne the books a bit - although the sale of Bielik will have actually cost us approximately £1m in accountign terms (book value at the start of the season was around £1.5m and reportedly sold him for £500k plus add-ons. I think the wage bill will have come down this season (as we were paying Bielik's wages last season but received the cash from Birmingham to supsidize the amount).
For the full year, we're probably loking at a £8.5m loss for 22/23, and £4m loss for 23/24.

Since Shrewsbury are one of the most physical sides in the league, 3 at the back will remain. It'll also be good practice for Stevenage the following week. If Mendez-Laing is out, we'll habe limited attacking options - I expect us to start with a front 2 again, then bring Wilson and Thompson on to make a boxed midfield.

My prediction for Warne's team:

Vickers

Nelson   Bradley   Cashin

Ward   Bird   Adams   Hourihane   Elder

Barkhuizen

Collins

Subs: Wildsmith, Nyambe, Sibley, Smith, Thompson, Wilson, Blackett-Taylor

21 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

My take is that's unlikely to be quite enough to get over the line. We're only third at the moment (on ppg) so have to outperform one of Bolton and Portsmouth while keeping ahead of teams immediately chasing. Both Bolton and Portsmouth are above 2ppg, which suggests the second automatic place is going to be in the range of 93-96 points. So we need to win at least 11 of the last 16; 12 wins would be nice.

Bolton's fixture congestion could be a problem. They arguably have the toughest final 6 games of the season - 3 teams battling for promotion (Portsmouth, Peterborough and Stevenage) as well as 2 sides giving it their all to atay up (Reading and Port Vale). The other is a tough away game at Bristol Rovers.

Peterborough still in the EFL Trophy too. With their tiny squad, fatigue will likely hit at some point. They also have a very young squad and it wouldn't be the first time nerves get the better of them.

I think it'll be close between the top 4. All may even end up between 90 and 95, but I'm doubtful anyone will get more than that.

5 hours ago, angieram said:

It's here.

 

The fact it wasn't even a yellow is disgusting (I cant remeber if a foul was given or not). Sibley also taken out just past halfway when breaking forward also went unpunished. Yet, Sibley taking 2 seconds to throw the ball in play after a Charlton sub was the worst offence of the three incidents.

7 minutes ago, dantheram said:

I can’t help but feel this is a bit short-termist from knight and bird. But accept that a footballer’s career is also very short. 
 

it’s entirely possible we’re back alongside them next season, given they seem to be only battling Preston for title of most consistently mid-table, I’m not sure it’s the right destination. 

Sometimes people just need a change of scenery and decide to move jobs, especially after the company they work for goes throigh a turbulent period and/or several of your closest colleagues have moved on. A pay increase may keep you happy for a while, but it wouldn't be long until you feel you need a change again.

It's no different for a footballer.

21 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

Bird is now a Bristol City player on loan to us . If he is going to be a half decent player like Knight he will have to show up against the likes of Bolton and not just the minnows. Having watched City v Leeds Utd the running stats are miles ahead of Birds .

What's your evidence for Bird's running stats?

1 hour ago, Carnero said:

This.

4-3-3 & 3-5-2 should be the go to formations going forward.

Where does Blackett-Taylor fit in a 352?

4 hours ago, Matchday Fred said:

Give yourself a pat on the back for apparently finding an obscure stat that appears to show Bird having suck-seeded. According to BBC he is joint 9th in League 1 assists with 8 other players. He’s scored 3 goals in 25 appearances, with 6 assists. That doesn’t look bad (although 3 goals isn’t enough) but if there was a stat on running back and making crucial tackles he would be somewhere close to the bottom. For sideways and backward passes he’d be vying with Hourihane at the top. Sorry his overall output isn’t good enough for the talent he has, and yes no doubt that has much to do with playing in a 2 man midfield with lazy bones Hourihane. Maybe why he is leaving the nest. 

Hardly obscure. It's comparing him with players who play in a similar position and putting him on a level playing field by ignoring set pieces.

Why would you compare him with wingers and forwards like you have done? Why would you compare his output to those who take all the freekicks and corners? Even if you do want to include set-pieces, Bird is still up there in terms of stats.

Passing isnt about quantity or proportion of backwards/sideways passing, otherwise Xavi would be considered the worst midfielder of all time - over an entire season he averaged 80% of passes going backwards/sideways, whislt Bird is somewhere around yhe 40-50% mark. The important stats from a passing perspective relate to chances created and 'second assists'.

46 minutes ago, Archied said:

What’s our ppg after Charlton game ?

note you have become my go to for this this kind of info😀😀

1.97 now. Win the next one and we're back at 2.00

The league table if we pretend the first 3 games of the season didn't happen:

8 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

At the rate the top six are going, even if Charlton were to win every single game remaining of the season then they still wouldn’t get in the playoffs. 

Ignoring the fact they’re now 14 without a win in all competitions. 

They could be in thr relegation spots before their next game - Port Vale need a win vs Leyton Orient and Reading need to beat Stevenage 5-0 for it to happen though. Port Vale would still have 2 extra games in hand on them too.

Bird now leads the list for open play assists out of all CMs in the league. Only Peterborough's Joel Randell has created more chances.

"Only passes sideways and backwards".

18 minutes ago, Dcfcsr92 said:

1. Bolton

2. Pompey

3. Peterborough

4. Derby

5. Barnsley

6. Charlton

I think charlton will go up in the play offs 

1 hour ago, CapeTownRams said:

 Intrigued what PW will now do with Nyambe back and when Fozzy is fit again. Back 4 with those back in it makes us very strong but we know he likes a back three with WBs ….

I think we'll see a transition towards 343/3421. It's the only real way you get Blackett-Taylor, Mendez-Laing and one of Ward/Wilson in the side together.

That would mean a back 3 of Nyambe, Nelson and Cashin backed up by Rooney (next season), Bradley and Forsyth. Ward, Wilson, Elder and Sibley our wing backs.

If we make Adams permanent (which I expect will be the plan), Hourihane to leave at the end of his contract, and Bird's loan to end... Adams will be partnered with another new signing next season (for now it would be Bird). Thompson and another will be backups.

We would also need 2 new wingers to compete with Blackett-Taylor and Mendez-Laing, as well as a couple new forwards (expect a new deal for Collins).

1 hour ago, CapeTownRams said:

Interesting hearing PW on RD saying that how Ebou played today was how he was wanting and expecting Fornah to play- but that ‘it hadn’t worked out quite so well (yet)’.

Hopefully Fornah can learn from Ebou’s aggression and work rate…

When we signed Fornah, I saw nothing in his stats to set him apart from Smith. It's no surprise to me it isn't quite working as Warne had hoped.

However, when I looked at Adams' he was averaging close to double Fornah's defensive output, albeit mostly at a lower level and having not played much for a couple of years. I just new he would make a difference. Then his interview... with an infectious personality like his, he's it just adds to the certainty of him being a good signing.

1 hour ago, Carnero said:

So the fee is definitely in excess of £1m then. Apparently we got what we were asking for, which I assume is the same as the fee we got for Knight at approx £2m 

Under a decent contract and still in L1, I think we would have been pushing for £3m. I think a tribunal would have ruled at around £2m with sell-ons, and I reckon that's what we'll have arranged with Bristol.