Ghost of Clough

59 minutes ago, Ram-Alf said:

And the mind games have begun...Ladies and Gentlemen I give you...Steve Evens

And the former Leeds United boss, who has already begun the mind games ahead of the trip to face the Rams, feels Derby fans have the ability to influence decisions.

"When we go to Derby, we just need a fair crack," he said. "We don't need big things to go against us because there are 27,000 or 28,000 Derby fans who get them a decision.

"They are going to try. I've been there with teams and they are a brilliant, vocal, home support. I don't know who the referee is, I've not looked, but he has to be strong."

Of course you don't Steve...it's...Thomas Kirk...as you full well know 🙄

Refereed us twice - lost both. The reverse fixture against Stevenage, and the 2-0 defeat away to Loncoln when a fairly don't penalty was awarded against Knight.

3 hours ago, duncanjwitham said:

I think that's kind of part of it.  He was supposed to be the big marquee signing, the hotshot in-form goal-scoring winger, the missing piece of the puzzle to kick us on a level (or it certainly felt like that was the intention from the outside).  Now, instead of that, he's suddenly not fit, then he's injured, then he's playing but not really fit.  Plus he doesn't really seem to fit the gas-out, aggressive pressing type of football that we want to play either.  So it kind of feels like, instead of blowing our budget on a difference-maker, we've wasted on it on someone who's struggling to even get in the side.

To be honest, I've come to the conclusion that most signgings will struggle with injuries during their first season under Warne. If i'm proven correct, we'll finally see the best out of Ward, Elder, Blackett-Taylor, Washington, etc next season.

33 minutes ago, TheHomunculusLives said:

As it stands, he's arguably been the most successful of his Academy group, despite being discarded by Derby pretty early. Just goes to show some players develop at a quicker rate than others. Sibley looked a very exciting prospect at 18 but 4 years later he's a League One squad player while Whittaker is getting interest from Lazio and top scorer in the Championship.

It goes to show some people are a better judge of player than others 😅 I've said all along Whittaker just needed time to adjust to the physicality and speed of play

1 minute ago, MadAmster said:

If Vickers is still injured then Loach will be the keeper on the bench ahead of Thompson, IMO... 😉

Agree. There's no way Warne would risk throwing someone who just turned 17 in against a Steve Evans side, even if he is already a better keeper than Loach

44 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

What are you doing to me @Owen87ITK?! 😭 

Hopefully Collins playing on isn't the same as when Winnall did 😬 Elder is an odd one as he played the full game, and Hourihane looked fine when he came off.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see more games like Exeter for the foreseeable (less pressing high up the pitch, but press in our defensive 3rd). Cashin only just returned to the squad after having a tight hammy, Adams is cramping up, etc

20 minutes ago, Returning ram said:

You're missing the point, how can you judge him against something that has proven to be very difficult, where managers like Steve M have already spectacularly failed, with much bigger resources.

Warne
22/23* - £14m (3rd highest), placed 7th in the table
24/24* - £13m (1st highest), currently 2nd in the table

Mac 1
13/14 - £16.4m (13th highest), placed 3rd in the table
14/15 - £21.8m (9th highest), placed 8th in the table

Mac 2
16/17 - £34.6m (4th highest), 7th most points during his time as manager

I wouldn't say Mac 'spectacuarly failed".

15/16 - 5th highest wage bill vs 5th in the league
17/18 - 8th highest wage bill vs 6th in the league
18/19* - 7th highest wage bill vs 6th in the league

* estimated wage bills

9 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Ah right. 👍

I was remembering a quote from a Percy Telegraph interview with Clowes "...Clowes believes that Derby can make it back to the top-flight in no time, and admits he is extremely positive about the future, he added: "Derby County is a big football club and if we get this right there’s no reason why we can’t be back in the Premier League in years to come." Not the same thing as you say.

"Years to come" could be 10 years from now. It doesn't contradict the 4 year plan previously mentioned. For full context, the full quote in Percy's interview is:

Quote

Derby County is a big football club and if we get this right there’s no reason why we can’t be back in the Premier League in years to come.
The short-term aim is obviously promotion out of League One. It has gone very quickly and I think we’ve done some good things.
I know what we’re trying to do behind the scenes and I’m really excited about the future of the club.
I’m seeing the club progress and feel very privileged that I’m in this position.

At no point did he say "top-flight in no-time". Clowes and Pearce have mentioned steady progress, meaning Warne's brief over his 4 year contract is to make us a midtable Championship club. At a suitable point in time, the club will review the situation and either extend his contract (as they think he's capable of taking us further) or move on to the next maanger.

1 minute ago, RoyMac5 said:

Clowes mentioned something about the Prem? So we can't judge him on getting us to the Prem, then what metrics? Standard of football? Income generated from player sales?

The club have previously talked about a 4 year plan, and Pearce spoke about 'phases' on Tuesday. It aligns withthe 4 year contract Warne was given too. If we take years to be phases then we have:
1. Challenge for the Playoffs (we finished 1 point off 6th)
2. Challenge for automatics (we're currently 2nd on pts, 3rd on ppg)
3. Avoid relegation from the Championship
4. Midtable in the Championship

Based on Warne's primary objective, he'll be meeting expectations.

You can judge him on other objectives if you want (such as youth progression, style of play, etc), but the primary objective is king. Exceeding in those secondary objectives would likely buy a maanger more time if struggling with the primary, but that appears to be the risk Warne wants to take.

22 minutes ago, angieram said:

He played full back for a whole season at FGR, did alright there! 

It's the changing of systems I think affects players. They like the routine of a familiar system with partners they can then play instinctively with.  Not going to get that under Warne. 

Whoscored says FG played 3412 44 times, 3421 once, and 352 once in their promotion season - Wilson startin 45 of those games at RWB

However, at his previous clubs, he did predominantly play as a RB in a back 4, with occasional apearances at RWB - West Brom youth, Exeter, Walsall and Tranmere

16 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I understand your concerns and thinking but have you ever known a manager get sacked (other than for non football related issues) as soon as he gets him team promoted (apart from Darren Moore and that was an insane decision)?

Whatever you might think of his abilities I reckon DC, along with a lot of other people, will think he has earned, and deserves, the right to give it a go in the Championship. 

Regarding the top teams in the Championship, you can exclude Leicester, Leeds and Southampton from any stats. As usual, most teams relegated from the Prem have an unfair advantage. 

I have no idea how we'll fair in the Championship (if we go up) but I think DC is a man of some integrity that will keep the manager he gave a long term contract to on unless things do go belly up very quickly.

Sorry, but whatever you, or any other anti Warne supporters think or want, I can't see DC sacking him in the summer if he gets us promoted. That's why I would be stunned, not because of what any of us on this forum think will happen.

Sacking a manager who gives us promotion would counter "stability, integrity, progress". Upon promotion, the manager will be given a chance to prove themselves.

17 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

Why can’t you believe it?

Next season in the Championship the odds will be stacked against us. Unlike in League One, we won’t have the best players and we won’t have the biggest budget.

Therefore we will need good coaching to succeed. Warne isn’t a good coach.

You only have to look at the top sides in the Championship currently. They are all the best footballing sides, the ones who dominate the ball.

Rotherham, Huddersfield, Sheff Wed, Millwall and Birmingham are the five teams with the lowest possession in the Championship. They make up five of the bottom seven. QPR (16th) and Stoke (12th) are the others.

The top five are Leicester, Southampton, Leeds, Sunderland and Hull - teams who make up the top 8.

Where do you think we will be under Warne averaging 40-45% possession per game?

Norwich, Preston, Bristol City all have less than 50% possession and are top half.

Wildsmith

Wilson   Nelson   Cashin   Elder

Bird   Adams   Hourihane

Mendez-Laing   Collins   Barkhuizen

Subs: JThompson, Bradley, Ward, Sibley, Smith, Thompson, Blackett-Taylor

7 minutes ago, Ram a lamb a ding dong said:

Exeter were easy on the eye and that was about it. Possession for possessions sake is pointless.

I'll never forget when we played Shrew away last season, and had about 80% of possession. Cash made the most passes during the match in the history of forever.

We were absolutely toothless upfront that night.

Unfortunatelly we have players who are perfect for a counter and that is why our away form is so good. When it comes to dominating at home we have seldom been able. A very difficult quandary to overcome as home fans would rightly be pissed if we sit back and let the opposition dictate.

Last night was solid beef and very pragmatic. Worked a treat

You've missed the point completely. It is never wing ugly vs lose pretty.

Would I rather be 2nd playing Warneball or 13th watching Exeter? Warnebsll wins.

However, would I rather be Exeter or a more route 1 type side such as Northampton or Wycombe and be in roughly the same spot? Another clear winner.

47 minutes ago, Gabby'sThighs said:

Is Elliot Bonds worth a shout? 23, central midfielder, English but plays for a minor, non-European national team? That's our vibe.

Only 2 goals all season and no assists. Seems to put the odd very good performance in (usually against the top sides) but poor most of the time. This is how he compares with other L1 mids:

7 minutes ago, rammieib said:

Honestly - I could easily see it in the region of £12-15m yes.

- I imagine the club employs around 150 full-time none-playing staff (i don't know actual number until the club accounts come out) - circa £40k average salary including NI payments = £6,000,000m.

- Salaries of Coaching Staff - £500k-750k as a Guess. 

- Police Bill - £400k (Some googling provides an indicative cost per game)

- Match Day Staff - £250k (Stewards etc)

- Loan Costs - 1-2m?

- Agent Fees - 500k?

- Fee's on rates and utilities - £1m. Not just Pride Park to Run but also Moor Farm. (I'm grouping Pride Park into the running costs of the club even though its a separate legal entity). Water, Electricity, Council Tax. 

- I imagine Coach and overnight Travel alone is £250k (Remember Under 21's, Under 18's, Women's team)

- CAPEX investment - Probably at least £500k per year - Yes this is financially spread over years but a 5-year depreciation (Straight line!!!) - could still see £500k IMO. Think of the new advertising at PP, the Bigger Screen, etc

- So I think I am nearly at £12m with the above on the bigger expenses.

Now remember the Creditors list when we went into Administration - There were probably 100 different companies/organisations on that list who were owed money. I'm sure we've consolidated a lot of spend since but there will still be an awful lot of day to day operational costs in the business. Caterers, vehicles, stationary, marketing, I.T, maintenance. the list will add up very very quickly.

You've underestimated a lot. For example, back in 2019, Boro paid £3.7m in rates, VAT, utilities and insurance. We also know utility rates have sky rocketted since then - add another £1m minimum to that figure. We're basicallly talking £5m, where your estimate is just £1m!

You also missed off matchday doctors/paramedics - another £400k

There's another £2m+ on maintenance and cleanign of the stadium and training ground.

12 minutes ago, eddielewis said:

Current Predicted table according to footballwebpages.co.uk 

Interesting how they have us not losing another game from now on in but still missing out on the Top 2. They have got us drawing 5 more away games and only winning 1 more.

2 draws in 17 away games so far and 6 in 32 overall suggests to me we wont draw another 5 away games. To only win 1 away game out of 6 is odd too - 4 of those being Bristol Rovers, Cambridge, Wycombe, and Northampton

1 hour ago, Archied said:

Yep it’s interesting that the poster minimise mcg under warne and perhaps nml by saying his goals per game was better than his best career season under warne when mcg dropped down before yet we have heard consistently how warne beasts his players and causes time out injured , well he got a tune out of mc g and is doing the same with nml , 

I just wish certain posters would give warne a fair crack of the whip , everything bad is because of him , everything good in spite of him is the default of some 🤷🏻‍♂️

He hadn't played at this level since his half season at Coventry in 2012 (16 goals in 22 games). That was after 3 seasons of struggling at Forest who signed him as a 22 year old.
The season before joining us, he contributed to 6 goals in 969 Championship minutes (1 every 162 mins) and 9 in 2402 PL minutes the season before (1 every 267 mins). His increased mins per contrubtition following another drop down in level was to be expected (1 ever 99 mins). However, credit must be given to the staff for keeping him fit enough to play in 39 league games.

To get us started...

GK - Radek Vitek (Accrington, on loan from Man Utd). 3 clean sheets in 4 games since he joined them on loan. Good on the ball as you'd expect from a Man Utd keeper bit also a very good shot stopper. A 6'5" giant.

DM - Ebou Adams. No justification required
DM - Nohan Kennah (Shrewsbury, on loan from Hibs). Young cover for Adams and very similar in style of play - both are two of the best defensive DMs in the league. Came through at Leeds when Bielsa was manager so will be used to a high intensity style of play.

CM - Herbie Kane (Barnsley). A very good all round CM, possibly the best in the league and also a good set peice taker. Will fill the Hourihane shaped hole well. Will be availabe on a free in the summer.

RW - Tyrhys Dolan (Blackburn). Only 22 and out of contract in the summer (Blackburn have a 1 year option). He's been used as a squad option since breaking into their first team,  so may not feature in their longer term plans. Can also cover CF.

LW - P. Płacheta (Swansea, on loan from Norwich). Missed all of last season due to a rare shin injury.It's someone I would take a risk on, knowing we will have Mendez-Laing and Blackett-Taylor who can both play in this position. Still only 25 and avaialbe on a free in the summer.

4 hours ago, David said:

The league table is a good indicator of how teams are doing.

Football isn’t overly complex, stick the ball in the net more than the other team and you get 3 points. 

Not sure how else you can actually compare, seen other comments in this topic about what teams “deserve” to justify the xG argument, it’s all the same, ignoring the basic rules of the game which is based on actual goals.

At what point is the league a fair indicator? Do we have to wait until the last game has been played?

10 games in, Port Vale were 6th bit now they're 4th bottom. After 20 games, Reading were bottom 4, but would now be 14th without a points deduction. Leyton Orient have shot up from 16th to 9th in the same period of time.

Summer suggestion since no one will start the thread...

GK - Radek Vitek (Accrington, on loan from Man Utd). 3 clean sheets in 4 games since he joined them on loan. Good on the ball as you'd expect from a Man Utd keeper bit also a very good shot stopper. A 6'5" giant.

Ward on for Cashin. Ward RWB, Wilson LWB, Elder LCB

1 minute ago, Ghost of Clough said:

It was more like 4231 woth Bird AM. Now 352 with Barkhuizen and Collins CF

And now 343 with Sibley and Barkhuizen supporting Collins 

3 minutes ago, CodnorRam said:

This accurate ? We playing 4-3-3 ??!?? 😍

It was more like 4231 woth Bird AM. Now 352 with Barkhuizen and Collins CF

That assist was Mendez-Laing's 24th goal contribution of the season in all competitions. His previous best was 23 back in 16/17 when playing for Rochdale

What a goal! Brilliant!!!