Derby v Stevenage FC - Match Day Thread

[MadAmster]

10 hours ago, Crewton said:

I think his arm was infront of his body, not making his silhouette bigger. As Wildsmith and both Stevenage players all missed the ball, I don't think Nelson could avoid being hit - and he'd have fore-armed it into the net if Bradley hadn't cleared it, so Nelson actually caused a goal-scoring opportunity, he didn't prevent one. But I guess if VAR is now saying that anytime the ball strikes a defender on the arm in the penalty area then it's a penalty regardless of context, it's a good job we don't have VAR, because that's completely illogical.

from the various camera abeles it looks like 45 degrees, not out front, not out wide but somewhere in between. The arm moves towards the ball. As I said earlier, we should have had 2 first half as well so Evans has nowt to complain about.

[DavesaRam]

On reflection, the somewhat toothless display in the first half was part of the plan. We set up to give Stevenage absolutely nothing, and it almost worked, with the only real threat being the shot which Wildsmith saved. The other chance was a deflection. I feel that we did actually play pretty well, despite creating virtually nothing on goal. Solid may be a good way to describe it. I wanted changes earlier on in the match, as most people probably did, Sibley for Nyambe who looked pretty shot ("gassed out" being the Warnese words for it!) in th second half. But Smith coming on first was the catalyst because it changed how we played the midfield. So could it be that Paul Warne is becoming a master tactician?

 

[Ram-Alf]

9 minutes ago, DavesaRam said:

On reflection, the somewhat toothless display in the first half was part of the plan. We set up to give Stevenage absolutely nothing, and it almost worked, with the only real threat being the shot which Wildsmith saved. The other chance was a deflection. I feel that we did actually play pretty well, despite creating virtually nothing on goal. Solid may be a good way to describe it. I wanted changes earlier on in the match, as most people probably did, Sibley for Nyambe who looked pretty shot ("gassed out" being the Warnese words for it!) in th second half. But Smith coming on first was the catalyst because it changed how we played the midfield. So could it be that Paul Warne is becoming a master tactician?

 

There's no doubt that PW set up to match Stevenage, Our "enforcer" Adams is/was the catalyst, In this division you need that kind of player and it will rub off on others, Someone to break the play up, Sit in front of a 3 or 4, Which in turn allows a little freedom to other forward thinking players to advance.

It's taken PW 18 months to realise what he's missed, Now with Gayle on board our forward play will be a little more subtle, 13 games to go...39 points to play for, I expect a top 2 👍

  

[Foreveram]

14 minutes ago, DavesaRam said:

On reflection, the somewhat toothless display in the first half was part of the plan. We set up to give Stevenage absolutely nothing, and it almost worked, with the only real threat being the shot which Wildsmith saved. The other chance was a deflection. I feel that we did actually play pretty well, despite creating virtually nothing on goal. Solid may be a good way to describe it. I wanted changes earlier on in the match, as most people probably did, Sibley for Nyambe who looked pretty shot ("gassed out" being the Warnese words for it!) in th second half. But Smith coming on first was the catalyst because it changed how we played the midfield. So could it be that Paul Warne is becoming a master tactician?

 

Or maybe he always was and the players are finally understanding what he wants from them, discuss 🤔

[On the Ram Page]

1 hour ago, DavesaRam said:

On reflection, the somewhat toothless display in the first half was part of the plan. We set up to give Stevenage absolutely nothing, and it almost worked, with the only real threat being the shot which Wildsmith saved. The other chance was a deflection. I feel that we did actually play pretty well, despite creating virtually nothing on goal. Solid may be a good way to describe it. I wanted changes earlier on in the match, as most people probably did, Sibley for Nyambe who looked pretty shot ("gassed out" being the Warnese words for it!) in th second half. But Smith coming on first was the catalyst because it changed how we played the midfield. So could it be that Paul Warne is becoming a master tactician?

 

Our display in the first half was anything but toothless. Initially we had to match or better their aggressive play (which we didn’t do at their place) which was achieved. It didn’t “almost” work - it did. I didn’t think Nyambe was “gassed out” as you say. I think we had mainly won the physical battle which meant we could slightly more offensive. Warne has got things  tactically right, on the whole, for quite a while now.

[G STAR RAM]

1 hour ago, DavesaRam said:

On reflection, the somewhat toothless display in the first half was part of the plan. We set up to give Stevenage absolutely nothing, and it almost worked, with the only real threat being the shot which Wildsmith saved. The other chance was a deflection. I feel that we did actually play pretty well, despite creating virtually nothing on goal. Solid may be a good way to describe it. I wanted changes earlier on in the match, as most people probably did, Sibley for Nyambe who looked pretty shot ("gassed out" being the Warnese words for it!) in th second half. But Smith coming on first was the catalyst because it changed how we played the midfield. So could it be that Paul Warne is becoming a master tactician?

 

Doubt it, was probably a fluke or a set up that he just stumbled on.

Likewise with the signing of Gayle, I'm guessing it was just a chance meeting outside Padel, that can be the only explanation with nobody wanting to play for him and him having no pulling power.

Just hope our poster keeping tabs on such things has updated their database accordingly.

[ap04]

1 hour ago, On the Ram Page said:

Our display in the first half was anything but toothless. It didn’t “almost” work - it did.

I think they should introduce this as a template in seminars and masterclasses, "How to attain 0 attempts and 0.01xG (Cheltenham) in games you target a win". Judging by the resounding approval at dcfcfans it'll be all the rage.

[MadAmster]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Doubt it, was probably a fluke or a set up that he just stumbled on.

Likewise with the signing of Gayle, I'm guessing it was just a chance meeting outside Padel, that can be the only explanation with nobody wanting to play for him and him having no pulling power.

Just hope our poster keeping tabs on such things has updated their database accordingly.

... and without it we'd be up the creek without a Padel 😉

[Caerphilly Ram]

37 minutes ago, ap04 said:

I think they should introduce this as a template in seminars and masterclasses, "How to attain 0 attempts and 0.01xG (Cheltenham) in games you target a win". Judging by the resounding approval at dcfcfans it'll be all the rage.

Or….and hear me out, some people are happy without the statistical analysis and can take a bit of joy knowing that the team won and is 3 points better off. 
If you feel that’s not good enough that’s your opinion, but stop belittling other people’s, it frankly makes you sound like a bit of a whopper! 

[G STAR RAM]

48 minutes ago, ap04 said:

I think they should introduce this as a template in seminars and masterclasses, "How to attain 0 attempts and 0.01xG (Cheltenham) in games you target a win". Judging by the resounding approval at dcfcfans it'll be all the rage.

You honestly think that teams are still going to be using xG as a metric now the cat is out of the bag about your 'lucky' database?

[ap04]

13 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

You honestly think that teams are still going to be using xG as a metric now the cat is out of the bag about your 'lucky' database?

Hell yeah for numerous reasons, would be good to know which you personally trust though so that I know how to enlighten you going forward (if I were you I'd go with mine).

[G STAR RAM]

48 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Hell yeah for numerous reasons, would be good to know which you personally trust though so that I know how to enlighten you going forward (if I were you I'd go with mine).

Definitely your database, sounds like there has been so much hard work that has gone into it and basically I'm struggling to see any flaws with it.

[Foreveram]

50 minutes ago, ap04 said:

Hell yeah for numerous reasons, would be good to know which you personally trust though so that I know how to enlighten you going forward (if I were you I'd go with mine).

[ap04]

On 17/02/2024 at 22:43, FlyBritishMidland said:

So we are 2nd on luck after about 2/3 of the season?  Luck wins cups where you have be good on a one off.  Luck doesn’t get teams at the top end of the table.

Says who? I mean everyone says it, but have you got the numbers of how lucky a team usually is or can get after x amount of games and why, or when it eventually evens out, or is it just another cliché?

In response to what you said, you would struggle to find more than a handful in their rightful place at the end of a season, it's a complete mess. According to xPoints -just one of the estimates- last year it was one in 24.

[Blondest Goat]

3 hours ago, G STAR RAM said:

Doubt it, was probably a fluke or a set up that he just stumbled on.

Likewise with the signing of Gayle, I'm guessing it was just a chance meeting outside Padel, that can be the only explanation with nobody wanting to play for him and him having no pulling power.

Just hope our poster keeping tabs on such things has updated their database accordingly.

Just out of interest are there any other internet forums for Derby fans?

[Caerphilly Ram]

Deleted.

Edited February 20 by Caerphilly Ram

[ck-]

1 hour ago, ap04 said:

Hell yeah for numerous reasons, would be good to know which you personally trust though so that I know how to enlighten you going forward (if I were you I'd go with mine).

I think I understand, but enlighten me if you can. 
My understanding is that the xG is derived from considering the outcome of similar situations. The model is built from as many instances as possible. What isn’t clear is whether it’s calibrated according to: 
- the skill level of the player shooting

- the skill level of the league the match is in

The first one in particular surely means that we should expect to do better than xG because we should have better players than the average - otherwise how are we near the top of the table. 
 

I’m genuinely interested, not trying any silly point scoring.

 

[G STAR RAM]

9 minutes ago, Blondest Goat said:

Just out of interest are there any other internet forums for Derby fans?

Hopefully 👋 

[McArthur Park]

31 minutes ago, ap04 said:

In response to what you said, you would struggle to find more than a handful in their rightful place at the end of a season, it's a complete mess. According to xPoints -just one of the estimates- last year it was one in 24.

Well doesn't this just show what a pointless statistic it is then?

[ramsbottom]

4 hours ago, On the Ram Page said:

Our display in the first half was anything but toothless. Initially we had to match or better their aggressive play (which we didn’t do at their place) which was achieved. It didn’t “almost” work - it did. I didn’t think Nyambe was “gassed out” as you say. I think we had mainly won the physical battle which meant we could slightly more offensive. Warne has got things  tactically right, on the whole, for quite a while now.

Exactly this.  Warne and the players got pelters in the reverse fixture for not being able to cope with their style.  So on Saturday he sets us up to counteract it.  Going way back, everyone was up in arms with McClaren for having no plan B and only having one formation, now we have a boss who can set up in many ways, with whatever players he has at his disposal, and is still able to win games, yet still gets abuse from some quarters.  The bloke can't win...