The Ukraine War

[Alph]

16 minutes ago, Highgate said:

 

Is it time for stiff UN sanctions against DiCaprio?  Where will he invade next ?

Somewhere full of beautiful women under the aged between 18 and 25

[Ramarena]

Huge change from Putin in his speech earlier.

He looks wrecked, either he’s finally seen the reality outside his echo chamber, or Xi has slapped him down hard.

His problem is he’s boxed himself in now, can’t withdraw, can’t really continue on the same path.

What a waste!

[ramit]

The US threatened India with sanctions for abstaining in a UN vote.  Vote like we tell you, or else.

Now they threaten China over Russian support.  It is like they want their empire to implode.

 

[Alph]

The Metropolitan Police in London says its war crimes team is gathering evidence in relation to alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

They couldn't gather evidence on a tea party in their own back garden!

[Alph]

If they want evidence of war crimes then just be patient. These guys will give you all the evidence you need. Things could get worse, which is hard to imagine

[Highgate]

5 hours ago, Highgate said:

Interesting views from award winning Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov here. 

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/how-russias-nobel-winning-newspaper-is-covering-ukraine?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

As of this evening this newspaper has ceased reporting on the Russian military action in Ukraine. Any such reporting has just become a crime in Russia.

[Rev]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-novaya-gazeta-cuts-ukraine-war-reporting-under-censorship-2022-03-04/

 

[BaaLocks]

Bit of an update, just telling it as I am hearing it.

• News in Russia is that they have no intent of taking Ukraine. The invasion is based around the point that Ukraine broke the Minsk agreement (the one where Ukraine agreed not to apply for NATO / EU membership) and have been compiling military stations in the past eight years. What Russia wants now is to take out those installations, reclaim Donetsk and Lugansk and show Ukraine what happens if they renege on agreements.
• What Putin wants to do is show what happens if you break agreements, then withdraw. There is nobody, repeat nobody, in Russia saying they have any interest in keeping Ukraine (yes, I know, two weeks ago they were saying they wouldn't invade - but it's hardly the 'rebuilding the Soviet Union / mad Hitler' style rant many would like to think is in place). And then, if they misbehave again (their words) he will come back and do the same again
• Most of the Russian troops sent in during the first wave are not the 'real' military. Best parallel is that they are the equivalent of Territorial Army. The convoy is waiting further instruction, Russia has been planning this for months - no way has it run out of fuel.
• Conspiracy theory is that Putin has done this to tank the Russian market. Apparently they are buying up all the shares in BP and western companies who are exiting Russia at rock bottom prices. There's always a winner eh!
• Mariupol has been targeted as it is the home if Idar / Azov battalion. Nope, don't expect you to have, but remember the story of the Russian citizens being rounded up in the county hall and burned alive in 2014? Well, that was led by the battalion based out of Mariupol, and Putin says repeatedly he is coming after them - to the named person.
• The post earlier about Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, is true. In Russia they refer to them as 'orcs' - they will fight to the extreme for whoever leads them and at this moment in history they are led by Putin (yup, strange eh, I can't keep up either)
• Remember, in the Minsk agreement signed in 2014 by all parties Ukraine agreed to being a demilitarised zone and not applying for membership of NATO. Putin believes that one, maybe both, of those terms have been closed.
• There might not be queues at ATMs as many suggest, but they are queuing up at Ikea before it closes to buy up their flat pack furniture.
• Dollars are quite hard to find at the moment (point about ten pages back that US currency will benefit from this). You don't know where she lives so I will just say it anyway, but my mother in law has $10k stashed under her mattress for a rainy day. As do most Russians, they remember the 1990s.
• Final point, story is that Putin dropped out of the public eye in 2019 because he had bowel cancer (I personally think he went for a face lift) and the time along, C-19 and other points is what has sent him acutely paranoid. It's the logic behind all the long tables, apparently if you shake his hand now (weeks prior to this) you need to self isolate to prove you are not carrying anything. Yes, as I have said elsewhere, he is certainly not quite the level leader he might have been (he was, no debate - you might not like the definition of level but we can agree it was level) for the first two decades or so.

Couple of other points of interest

• As of tonight, Apple Pay still works in Russia. I won't go baiting the biggest Apple fan on the forum over that point but it is.
• The blocking of international flights is a major issue for airlines. As we all know, airlines don't buy planes, they lease them. Well, once the block was put in place there are still a load of planes stuck in Russia for AirFrance, Lufthansa, BA. Russians are saying they have no responsibility for them and the plane makers (Boeing, Airbus) want to know when they are getting their planes back.
• And if you think we are better at all of this - oops, bit of politics coming up - just have a look at Carol Cadwallader's Twitter feed tonight. Some might call it BSC (bat and crazy, you've got the other word) but she is posting statements she made under oath in her counrt battle with Aaron Banks showing how Gavin Williamson was the link to the Russian funding that drove Brexit - no, I'm not opening that one up here but I am just saying this has potential to explode a lot closer to home than we might realise. And if you want a clue, VfB the Russian bank has been frozen in all other countries. In the UK they have been given 30 days to exit. Sorry, I almost forgot to mention, the head of VfB in the UK is a Tory party donor. But, anyway, that's for another day. Ah, sorry, that's Sir Gavin Williamson - I do apolgise.

Not for discussion, just for your persual. It is what it is.

Edited March 4, 2022 by BaaLocks

[Mick Brolly]

News from the rest of the world as I'm hearing it.

More innocent men women and children are being killed by the Russian army

Putin is a evil dictator who doesn’t care about anyone else 

Almost 1.5 million people have been forced to leave behind everything they ever had

Russia controls and censors its media to stop the truth being told to its own people 

Putin says his neighbours need not worry despite invading one

  Not for discussion it is what it is. 

 

[Norman]

Military expert on BBC says there has been peace-keeping Russian troops in Moldova for years, but that they are currently also assigned for the siege in Odessa. 

Once Odessa is taken, he expects them to be assigned to take Moldova. 

Also stating that when the Russian forces meet resistance from residential blocks, they are no longer fighting and clearing the buildings, they are shelling and destroying the building and moving on. 

[ketteringram]

Would have thought if the plan was to just go in there, blow up loads of stuff, and generally destroy the place, then leave, they could simply have done all that from the air. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by ketteringram

[ramit]

From the front line in Donbass 

 

[Leeds Ram]

 

[GboroRam]

55 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Bit of an update, just telling it as I am hearing it.

• News in Russia is that they have no intent of taking Ukraine. The invasion is based around the point that Ukraine broke the Minsk agreement (the one where Ukraine agreed not to apply for NATO / EU membership) and have been compiling military stations in the past eight years. What Russia wants now is to take out those installations, reclaim Donetsk and Lugansk and show Ukraine what happens if they renege on agreements.
• What Putin wants to do is show what happens if you break agreements, then withdraw. There is nobody, repeat nobody, in Russia saying they have any interest in keeping Ukraine (yes, I know, two weeks ago they were saying they wouldn't invade - but it's hardly the 'rebuilding the Soviet Union / mad Hitler' style rant many would like to think is in place). And then, if they misbehave again (their words) he will come back and do the same again
• Most of the Russian troops sent in during the first wave are not the 'real' military. Best parallel is that they are the equivalent of Territorial Army. The convoy is waiting further instruction, Russia has been planning this for months - no way has it run out of fuel.
• Conspiracy theory is that Putin has done this to tank the Russian market. Apparently they are buying up all the shares in BP and western companies who are exiting Russia at rock bottom prices. There's always a winner eh!
• Mariupol has been targeted as it is the home if Idar / Azov battalion. Nope, don't expect you to have, but remember the story of the Russian citizens being rounded up in the county hall and burned alive in 2014? Well, that was led by the battalion based out of Mariupol, and Putin says repeatedly he is coming after them - to the named person.
• The post earlier about Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, is true. In Russia they refer to them as 'orcs' - they will fight to the extreme for whoever leads them and at this moment in history they are led by Putin (yup, strange eh, I can't keep up either)
• Remember, in the Minsk agreement signed in 2014 by all parties Ukraine agreed to being a demilitarised zone and not applying for membership of NATO. Putin believes that one, maybe both, of those terms have been closed.
• There might not be queues at ATMs as many suggest, but they are queuing up at Ikea before it closes to buy up their flat pack furniture.
• Dollars are quite hard to find at the moment (point about ten pages back that US currency will benefit from this). You don't know where she lives so I will just say it anyway, but my mother in law has $10k stashed under her mattress for a rainy day. As do most Russians, they remember the 1990s.
• Final point, story is that Putin dropped out of the public eye in 2019 because he had bowel cancer (I personally think he went for a face lift) and the time along, C-19 and other points is what has sent him acutely paranoid. It's the logic behind all the long tables, apparently if you shake his hand now (weeks prior to this) you need to self isolate to prove you are not carrying anything. Yes, as I have said elsewhere, he is certainly not quite the level leader he might have been (he was, no debate - you might not like the definition of level but we can agree it was level) for the first two decades or so.

Couple of other points of interest

• As of tonight, Apple Pay still works in Russia. I won't go baiting the biggest Apple fan on the forum over that point but it is.
• The blocking of international flights is a major issue for airlines. As we all know, airlines don't buy planes, they lease them. Well, once the block was put in place there are still a load of planes stuck in Russia for AirFrance, Lufthansa, BA. Russians are saying they have no responsibility for them and the plane makers (Boeing, Airbus) want to know when they are getting their planes back.
• And if you think we are better at all of this - oops, bit of politics coming up - just have a look at Carol Cadwallader's Twitter feed tonight. Some might call it BSC (bat and crazy, you've got the other word) but she is posting statements she made under oath in her counrt battle with Aaron Banks showing how Gavin Williamson was the link to the Russian funding that drove Brexit - no, I'm not opening that one up here but I am just saying this has potential to explode a lot closer to home than we might realise. And if you want a clue, VfB the Russian bank has been frozen in all other countries. In the UK they have been given 30 days to exit. Sorry, I almost forgot to mention, the head of VfB in the UK is a Tory party donor. But, anyway, that's for another day. Ah, sorry, that's Sir Gavin Williamson - I do apolgise.

Not for discussion, just for your persual. It is what it is.

I think this is a very interesting way to look at what is happening with regards to the control of the narrative. Clearly @BaaLocks you are hearing from a side that we aren't hearing. But I'm not saying that the narrative we are hearing is factual either. Where's the truth? My personal opinion is it's probably nearer the pro Ukraine version than the narrative being spun by a leader who does not tolerate opposing views.

It sounds like there's an attempt to find an exit that Putin can call a victory. The mighty Russian war machine has been found wanting so far. 

Honestly I think he's finished, it's just a matter of time. 

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, BaaLocks said:

Bit of an update, just telling it as I am hearing it.

• News in Russia is that they have no intent of taking Ukraine. The invasion is based around the point that Ukraine broke the Minsk agreement (the one where Ukraine agreed not to apply for NATO / EU membership) and have been compiling military stations in the past eight years. What Russia wants now is to take out those installations, reclaim Donetsk and Lugansk and show Ukraine what happens if they renege on agreements.
• What Putin wants to do is show what happens if you break agreements, then withdraw. There is nobody, repeat nobody, in Russia saying they have any interest in keeping Ukraine (yes, I know, two weeks ago they were saying they wouldn't invade - but it's hardly the 'rebuilding the Soviet Union / mad Hitler' style rant many would like to think is in place). And then, if they misbehave again (their words) he will come back and do the same again
• Most of the Russian troops sent in during the first wave are not the 'real' military. Best parallel is that they are the equivalent of Territorial Army. The convoy is waiting further instruction, Russia has been planning this for months - no way has it run out of fuel.
• Conspiracy theory is that Putin has done this to tank the Russian market. Apparently they are buying up all the shares in BP and western companies who are exiting Russia at rock bottom prices. There's always a winner eh!
• Mariupol has been targeted as it is the home if Idar / Azov battalion. Nope, don't expect you to have, but remember the story of the Russian citizens being rounded up in the county hall and burned alive in 2014? Well, that was led by the battalion based out of Mariupol, and Putin says repeatedly he is coming after them - to the named person.
• The post earlier about Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, is true. In Russia they refer to them as 'orcs' - they will fight to the extreme for whoever leads them and at this moment in history they are led by Putin (yup, strange eh, I can't keep up either)
• Remember, in the Minsk agreement signed in 2014 by all parties Ukraine agreed to being a demilitarised zone and not applying for membership of NATO. Putin believes that one, maybe both, of those terms have been closed.
• There might not be queues at ATMs as many suggest, but they are queuing up at Ikea before it closes to buy up their flat pack furniture.
• Dollars are quite hard to find at the moment (point about ten pages back that US currency will benefit from this). You don't know where she lives so I will just say it anyway, but my mother in law has $10k stashed under her mattress for a rainy day. As do most Russians, they remember the 1990s.
• Final point, story is that Putin dropped out of the public eye in 2019 because he had bowel cancer (I personally think he went for a face lift) and the time along, C-19 and other points is what has sent him acutely paranoid. It's the logic behind all the long tables, apparently if you shake his hand now (weeks prior to this) you need to self isolate to prove you are not carrying anything. Yes, as I have said elsewhere, he is certainly not quite the level leader he might have been (he was, no debate - you might not like the definition of level but we can agree it was level) for the first two decades or so.

Couple of other points of interest

• As of tonight, Apple Pay still works in Russia. I won't go baiting the biggest Apple fan on the forum over that point but it is.
• The blocking of international flights is a major issue for airlines. As we all know, airlines don't buy planes, they lease them. Well, once the block was put in place there are still a load of planes stuck in Russia for AirFrance, Lufthansa, BA. Russians are saying they have no responsibility for them and the plane makers (Boeing, Airbus) want to know when they are getting their planes back.
• And if you think we are better at all of this - oops, bit of politics coming up - just have a look at Carol Cadwallader's Twitter feed tonight. Some might call it BSC (bat and crazy, you've got the other word) but she is posting statements she made under oath in her counrt battle with Aaron Banks showing how Gavin Williamson was the link to the Russian funding that drove Brexit - no, I'm not opening that one up here but I am just saying this has potential to explode a lot closer to home than we might realise. And if you want a clue, VfB the Russian bank has been frozen in all other countries. In the UK they have been given 30 days to exit. Sorry, I almost forgot to mention, the head of VfB in the UK is a Tory party donor. But, anyway, that's for another day. Ah, sorry, that's Sir Gavin Williamson - I do apolgise.

Not for discussion, just for your persual. It is what it is.

Interesting read. Do you have a link to the Minsk agreement? I can’t see any mention of Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO and certainly not the EU. I also can’t find anything about the whole of the Ukraine being deemed a demilitarised area as part of the agreement.

I can understand Russia’s concerns about Ukraine joining NATO but on what possible grounds would they have for preventing a sovereign nation from joining another trade group?

I’m glad to hear your mother in law has made sensible financial precautions but once again you are making claims about “most Russians”. You really know that to be true of a population of 144 million? I also find it quite hard to believe that Putin would have risked humiliation by just sending in the TA.

No offence intended, and I know we’re in the same boat but from the opposing view, but I can’t help but think you’re one of the many victims of biased reporting and propaganda. As I say, I know we’re the same over here. As someone else very wisely said earlier in this thread, the first casualty of war is the truth.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Tamworthram

[Norman]

Nobody knows Putin's plans but himself and a select few generals. This is the bloke who didn't tell his own security counsel his plans to invade. 

The Russian army has sent in special forces and paratroopers. They have also sent in their 'proper army', it's just full of one-year conscripts. This happens when you have such a large army that has grown so quickly. Naturally a huge amount are incompetent.  Add in that some thought they were training in Belarus, some thought they were peace-keeping like they do in Moldova, and it is set up to be a failure. 

There are enough pictures showing Russian vehicles abandoned. Their supply lines were set up for a few days, not over a week. Not enough food, not enough fuel. 

There is no conspiracy. Putin thought the Ukrainian government would flee, and they would roll in and set up a puppet parliament and have a military presence in Ukraine as peace-keepers as well as taking back the disputed areas. 

The opposite happened, they weren't prepared, the supply lines weren't there. They panicked and sent in cargo planes carrying hundreds of paratroopers to land at an airport they hadn't secured. They got killed. The Russian army is incompetent.

The Russian economy is tanking. There isn't a clever plan.

[Alph]

38 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

 

I don't understand why the convoy hasn't been attacked more. The question was asked to a "military expert" and he answered that maybe Ukraine want to save their defences for the next phase of Russian attack and are fearful of using their limited air support.

But surely this is the best chance they'll get? 

[Alph]

5 minutes ago, Norman said:

Nobody knows Putin's plans but himself and a select few generals. This is the bloke who didn't tell his own security counsel his plans to invade. 

The Russian army has sent in special forces and paratroopers. They have also sent in their 'proper army', it's just full of one-year conscripts. This happens when you have such a large army that has grown so quickly. Naturally a huge amount are incompetent.  Add in that some thought they were training in Belarus, some thought they were peace-keeping like they do in Moldova, and it is set up to be a failure. 

There are enough pictures showing Russian vehicles abandoned. Their supply lines were set up for a few days, not over a week. Not enough food, not enough fuel. 

There is no conspiracy. Putin thought the Ukrainian government would flee, and they would roll in and set up a puppet parliament and have a military presence in Ukraine as peace-keepers as well as taking back the disputed areas. 

The opposite happened, they weren't prepared, the supply lines weren't there. They panicked and sent in cargo planes carrying hundreds of paratroopers to land at an airport they hadn't secured. They got killed. The Russian army is incompetent.

The Russian economy is tanking. There isn't a clever plan.

I think this sounds more likely. This was all supposed to be over now with Ukranian leadership running for the hills. 

[Alph]

31 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Interesting read. Do you have a link to the Minsk agreement? I can’t see any mention of Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO and certainly not the EU. I also can’t find anything about the whole of the Ukraine being deemed a demilitarised area as part of the agreement.

 

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western-policy-and-russias-war-eastern-ukraine-0/minsk-2-agreement

I read this the other day. Looks like it's barely worth the paper it's written on since it's left so much open to interpretation. 

[Ramarena]

These guys from Sky are so lucky to escape the Russians, imagine if they had been civilians without body armour!

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585