The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread

[Eddie]

17 minutes ago, Bald Eagle's Barmy Army said:

And just remind me how many are in hospital. Is it 250 or 9, I can't remember. 

You seem to have entirely missed the point, but I'm not surprised. 

[maxjam]

32 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I guess it depends. If being vaccinated reduces the risk of serious illness and hospitalisation from the Omicron variant then I suppose the theory is Covid passports reduces the risk of unvaccinated people catching the virus and thus helping to protect the NHS.

Personally, I don’t buy into this thin end of the wedge/state control theory and don’t really see what there is to be gained politically from introduction of the passports.

I'll admit that whether you see covid passports as Govt overreach is down to your views re. authority and Governments.  However I would caution that even if you don't think that this Tory Govt would abuse them, what about the next Govt?  Or the one after that?

Regardless of politics, I think the one thing we can all agree on is that we've had enough of covid now.  If we want it to end we have to slow/stop the spread.  If covid passports are supposed to do that, then they have failed re. delta and are worthless re. omicron.

[Comrade 86]

24 minutes ago, maxjam said:

The vaccines don't prevent tranmission of delta, only lower it by a small margin temporarily.  Omicron doesn't appear to be hindered by your vaccination status what-so-ever.

Some would argue that when talking about a pandemic, small margins are worthy of consideration. As regards Omicron, we're less than three weeks into the cycle so I think it's a little early for forming any hard and fast opinions. 

30 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Well approx 100 Tories thought the new restrictions were worth rebelling over. 

You argued that if the caution advised averts 'impending doom' then the Government and Sage's credibility is shot. I asked, on what basis, since it would seem to me that if measures taken avoid a potential catastrophe (an admittedly debatable outcome), that should be commended, if anything, not criticised.

I haven't asked what Tory back-benchers think of the possibility of having their annual skiing pilgrimages to Gstaad curtailed because it's wholly irrelevant, unless of course you believe they are rebelling because they have our best interests at heart. 

[Tamworthram]

40 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I'll admit that whether you see covid passports as Govt overreach is down to your views re. authority and Governments.  However I would caution that even if you don't think that this Tory Govt would abuse them, what about the next Govt?  Or the one after that?

Regardless of politics, I think the one thing we can all agree on is that we've had enough of covid now.  If we want it to end we have to slow/stop the spread.  If covid passports are supposed to do that, then they have failed re. delta and are worthless re. omicron.

Genuine question, when did passports come into force in England for you to say they have been worthless? Also, isn’t there the usual, but valid, response - maybe things would have been worse without them.

[GboroRam]

50 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I'll admit that whether you see covid passports as Govt overreach is down to your views re. authority and Governments.  However I would caution that even if you don't think that this Tory Govt would abuse them, what about the next Govt?  Or the one after that?

Regardless of politics, I think the one thing we can all agree on is that we've had enough of covid now.  If we want it to end we have to slow/stop the spread.  If covid passports are supposed to do that, then they have failed re. delta and are worthless re. omicron.

That could be true. But that means we either go back into wider lockdown, or we let it take its course. As has been pointed out, we still don't know what the true risk of Omicron is, it's too early to say. Early reports look promising, but do we want to let it rip on early promise? Once the genie is out of the bottle it'll not be possible to put it back in, lockdown or not. 

FWIW I think we'll be back in lockdown by New Year.

[maxjam]

43 minutes ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

Some would argue that when talking about a pandemic, small margins are worthy of consideration. As regards Omicron, we're less than three weeks into the cycle so I think it's a little early for forming any hard and fast opinions. 

Sage are forming hard and fast opinions about how devastating it will be...

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-will-cause-significant-increase-in-hospital-admissions-professor-chris-whitty-warns-12495685

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ministers-at-odds-with-scotland-over-message-to-enjoy-christmas-s5zl9lmz8?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1639604756

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-big-numbers-of-coronavirus-patients-in-hospital-after-christmas-due-to-phenomenal-omicron-spread-warns-whitty-12496558?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

Professor Chris Whitty has warned ministers that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 will trigger a 'significant increase in hospitalisations'

Chris Whitty has told people to scale back their Christmas plans as he warned that a big rise in hospital admissions from Omicron was now 'nailed on'.

Chris Whitty warns 'Big numbers' of coronavirus patients in hospital after Christmas due to 'phenomenal' Omicron spread

Evidence however from South Africa has seen their death rate drop from approx 3% throughout the pandemic to 0.5% now as omicron becomes the dominant strain.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/12/13/south-africas-omicron-covid-outbreaks-may-already-running-steam/

I would agree with a degree of caution but increasing evidence from around the world suggest thats this may be a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

43 minutes ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

You argued that if the caution advised averts 'impending doom' then the Government and Sage's credibility is shot. I asked, on what basis, since it would seem to me that if measures taken avoid a potential catastrophe (an admittedly debatable outcome), that should be commended, if anything, not criticised.

I haven't asked what Tory back-benchers think of the possibility of having their annual skiing pilgrimages to Gstaad curtailed because it's wholly irrelevant, unless of course you believe they are rebelling because they have our best interests at heart. 

On the basis that I saw several Tories speak eloquently about their reasons for voting against the Govt.  The basis that tens of thousands of people regularly march against restrictions both here in the UK and around the world.  The basis that from a personal perspective I see mask wearing has dropped off markedly.  The basis that numerous polls are heavily 80%+ in favour of no more restrictions and a significant number of people will ignore any restrictions this Christmas.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/scientists-fear-falling-trust-in-boris-johnson-could-harm-bid-to-curb-omicron-surge

There are already a lot of fed up people.  If the omicron threat passes without causing to much damage do you think that people will be praising the Tories and Sage for saving our asses or do you think that more people will have reached the end of their tether? 

You don't have to answer that, its a matter of opinion and you are of course welcome to yours, but mine is that far more people will assume the pandemic has run its course and 'tune out' any further scaremongering.

[Ram-Alf]

52 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I'll admit that whether you see covid passports as Govt overreach is down to your views re. authority and Governments.  However I would caution that even if you don't think that this Tory Govt would abuse them, what about the next Govt?  Or the one after that?

 

All Governments fear their Citizens as we have a knack of fighting back, A Government will slowly chip away the rights we've won/given, There's good laws and there's bad laws, It's the bad laws we don't like...Poll Tax anyone ?

[maxjam]

9 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Genuine question, when did passports come into force in England for you to say they have been worthless? Also, isn’t there the usual, but valid, response - maybe things would have been worse without them.

I'm arguing that they won't achieve what they want to achieve. 

For a while now there have been more vaccinated people with covid than unvaccinated.  The latest Govt figures show its around 2:1, yes 80% of ppl are vaccinated, but the fact remains that you can still catch and transmit covid therefore relying on passports won't work.  Furthermore, now we have omicron which appears to ignore vaccination status almost completely any reason for keeping them seems to be more political that for your health.

[maxjam]

16 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

That could be true. But that means we either go back into wider lockdown, or we let it take its course. As has been pointed out, we still don't know what the true risk of Omicron is, it's too early to say. Early reports look promising, but do we want to let it rip on early promise? Once the genie is out of the bottle it'll not be possible to put it back in, lockdown or not. 

FWIW I think we'll be back in lockdown by New Year.

I do as well, they seem to be more concerned about its spread than its severity. 

If South Africa is anything to go by we will see a small uptick in hospital admissions as delta and omicron compete, but as omicron takes over hospitalizations and deaths will drop. 

If we aren't going to rely on the vaccines to keep us safe then we may as well go into lockdown now and if we can't rely on passports to prevent transmission then we may as well throw them out of the window.  In both cases it should kill off any mandatory vaccine/covid passport argument. 

I would agree that we should treat omicron with caution, but we should also look data from elsewhere in the world and react with measures that will work, not ones that are imho entirely political.

Edited December 16, 2021 by maxjam

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, maxjam said:

I'll admit that whether you see covid passports as Govt overreach is down to your views re. authority and Governments.  However I would caution that even if you don't think that this Tory Govt would abuse them, what about the next Govt?  Or the one after that?

Regardless of politics, I think the one thing we can all agree on is that we've had enough of covid now.  If we want it to end we have to slow/stop the spread.  If covid passports are supposed to do that, then they have failed re. delta and are worthless re. omicron.

What - the Covid passports that have not yet been implemented in the UK have failed against Delta? How do you know that?

[maxjam]

3 minutes ago, Eddie said:

What - the Covid passports that have not yet been implemented in the UK have failed against Delta? How do you know that?

Because the double vaxxed can still spread delta therefore its a flawed concept to begin with.

[ariotofmyown]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

I refer back to my 100 Tory rebels and growing discontent amongst the general public.

Interesting looking at the map of the uk by vaccination rates. The main areas with low vaccination rates are urban, inner city areas, with low vaccination rates within certain ethnic groups.

The shires and countryside of the Tory heartlands seem pretty highly vaccinated.

This discontent of the public may be more against Tories breaking their own rules rather than a fairly moderate response to trying to contain a new, highly contagious variant.

[alexxxxx]

37 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Because the double vaxxed can still spread delta therefore its a flawed concept to begin with.

Would you support compulsory covid testing for entry in to pubs, restaurants, cinemas and other venues? 

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, Unlucky Alf said:

All Governments fear their Citizens as we have a knack of fighting back, A Government will slowly chip away the rights we've won/given, There's good laws and there's bad laws, It's the bad laws we don't like...Poll Tax anyone ?

A little bit of paranoia there isn’t there?

[Ram-Alf]

1 minute ago, Tamworthram said:

A little bit of paranoia there isn’t there?

Non at All ?

[Bob The Badger]

4 hours ago, maxjam said:

I refer back to my 100 Tory rebels and growing discontent amongst the general public.

Well over 1,000,000 got off their arses and marched against the invasion of Iraq and we still went in.

Things can change and things can deteriorate, but I yawn in your general direction at *discontent*.

20+ million were angry about Brexit and couldn't over turn it, so I'm not sure what basis you have to think that anything much will change for a Government that has such a strong majority and so long left in power.

A lot of Tories don't like Johnson, but he's given them power and they're unlikely to risk losing that.

Why would they?

Mid-terms in the US have a way of reining in excess for a 4 yearly cycle.

If you extract the urine, you may well keep the White House, but we will temper your ability to make change severely by giving the House and the Senate to the other Party.

We have nothing like that for a politcal cycle that is a year longer.

Many Brist think the US President has more power than a UK Prime Minister. That *can* be the case, but it often is just the opposite.

Johnson has waaaaay more power than Biden currently.

 

[Ram-Alf]

27 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

Johnson has waaaaay more power than Biden currently.

 

And that Bob is Batshit scary.

[Carl Sagan]

4 hours ago, Eddie said:

What - the Covid passports that have not yet been implemented in the UK have failed against Delta? How do you know that?

Covid passports have been implemented for some time in Scotland and Wales and made zero difference to the spread of Delta. It was a great trial, not having them in England but having them in those other two very similar (but much more sparsely populated) nations. Rates on infection ended up higher in Scotland and similar in Wales and England. What I think it shows is that Covid remains a mystery. So anyone pronouncing with great confidence can't really back it up. 

 

[Archied]

50 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Covid passports have been implemented for some time in Scotland and Wales and made zero difference to the spread of Delta. It was a great trial, not having them in England but having them in those other two very similar (but much more sparsely populated) nations. Rates on infection ended up higher in Scotland and similar in Wales and England. What I think it shows is that Covid remains a mystery. So anyone pronouncing with great confidence can't really back it up. 

 

Incoming ????

[PistoldPete]

7 hours ago, maxjam said:

Lets hope so. 

TBH I am less concerned with covid than I am Govt overreach that we have seen around the world.  We have known for a while now that delta is being spread by the vaccinated, the latest Govt figures show far more infected vaccinated people than unvaccinated (caveat, yes there are more vaccinated people than unvaccinted).  Govts around the world know this, we are using their figures after all - yet they still want to introduce passports.

Omicron now seems to be equally infectious regardless of vaccination status, continuing with covid passports seems illogical as it won't prevent spread - infact it will prolong it, it will but the NHS under increased pressure (sacking unvaccinated) and it will further damage the economy and society through segregation.  

Rather than spending millions or billions on something divisive that won't even achieve what its meant to achieve, we would be far better spending the money on cheap, fast, testing to ensure that entry into [wherever] is limited to people free of covid regardless of vaccination status.

We do not know which variant we are going to catch. We know that vaccines reduce the risk of transmission by those that have the virus (not nearly so much for delta). If you are vaccinated you have less risk of catching it or of serious illness if you do catch it. So COVID passports reduce the risk of serious illness by ensuring that people entering crowded venues are at less risk of either catching the virus or of suffering serious illness if they do catch it. 

Also by encouraging greater take up of vaccines it reduces the risk of serious illness if you catch COVID at any time, not just when you visit a nighclub .