The coronabrexit thread. I mean, coronavirus thread

[Gone]

Just now, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Thanks. Doesn't sound like it would be worth it for me as the work wouldn't be too data heavy.

You can do a yellow belt qualification that gives you the fundamentals of the methodology/tool kit without getting to heavy into it. 

[Bob The Badger]

1 hour ago, TexasRam said:

 

FWIW and I not sure you why you want to know, I’m a supply chain Director for a multi National linked to the steel industry, so forecasting global sales, global demand and supply, production rates, capacity projections, projects, financials, import, export globally etc etc in a ever changing and extremely unpredictable environment is my daily work. And if I was as wide of the mark as our “data scientists” then tiny Tim and Tina wouldn’t be getting any Christmas presents this year. 

Just for the craic @Stive Pesley I’m a six sigma black belt (I’m guessing you won’t know what that means re data analysis) have PGDip/Cert in business  strategic and management an MBA so not a data scientist you’re correct, however not to shabby I think ?. 
 

Shame people judge people without knowing the 1st bit about them, make people look a bit silly sometimes?

I wanted to know because I wanted to know if your opinion on data scientists was any more relevant than that of anybody else in here.

IOW, if you were a trained data scientist, then your opinion would carry a lot more weight.

My wife took her Masters in around 2013 and her Doctorate in 2017 (I think). 

She nearly quit her doctoral studies because of one thing, statistics.

She'd had no problem with it during her Masters, but it was at a whole different level for her Doctorate and we had to hire a private tutor.

I found out that this is surprisingly common and it's often recognised at that level to be the hardest element.

I'm familiar with Six Sigma, but only because it was implemented in a company I worked for and we all whined about the process of implementing it.

I do know that it's very technical and I'm pretty sure it's hard getting the black belt level and you have to be pretty smart.

But the data scientists doing the kind of work we're talking about are at a whole other level.

So, nice one for being a Six Sigma black belt and all that, but your opinion is no more valid than mine and probably less valid than my wife's. Just sayin'.

[Stive Pesley]

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210513/coronavirus-lingers-in-penis-and-could-cause-impotence#1

?

[Gone]

14 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

I wanted to know because I wanted to know if your opinion on data scientists was any more relevant than that of anybody else in here.

IOW, if you were a trained data scientist, then your opinion would carry a lot more weight.

My wife took her Masters in around 2013 and her Doctorate in 2017 (I think). 

She nearly quit her doctoral studies because of one thing, statistics.

She'd had no problem with it during her Masters, but it was at a whole different level for her Doctorate and we had to hire a private tutor.

I found out that this is surprisingly common and it's often recognised at that level to be the hardest element.

I'm familiar with Six Sigma, but only because it was implemented in a company I worked for and we all whined about the process of implementing it.

I do know that it's very technical and I'm pretty sure it's hard getting the black belt level and you have to be pretty smart.

But the data scientists doing the kind of work we're talking about are at a whole other level.

So, nice one for being a Six Sigma black belt and all that, but your opinion is no more valid than mine and probably less valid than my wife's. Just sayin'.

Kudos to your wife, I’d love to do a PHD, I imagine the personal commitment and sacrifice was massive over those years.

However on the data scientists, regardless of what level they work on, not very accurate where they. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by TexasRam

[i-Ram]

13 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Kudos to your wife, I’d love to do a PHD, I imagine the personal commitment and sacrifice was massive over those years.

Yeah, there must have been much more enjoyable ways of avoiding Bob.

[G STAR RAM]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

Thank god it wasn't Diane Abbot saying it eh? We'd be finding her hilarious. Instead we just find the numbers unbelievable..

Maybe its because he had done lots of interviews before, or because he has diabetes, or because the people that listened to the interview are racist?

Like @TexasRamI find all of these lies hilarious and am happy to call them out whenever they occur rather than coming up with excuses for them.

[PistoldPete]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

Thank god it wasn't Diane Abbot saying it eh? We'd be finding her hilarious. Instead we just find the numbers unbelievable..

If Dominic Raab and Diane Abbott conceived a child together it would be a Raabott. And not very good at maths.

[Bob The Badger]

2 hours ago, TexasRam said:

Kudos to your wife, I’d love to do a PHD, I imagine the personal commitment and sacrifice was massive over those years.

However on the data scientists, regardless of what level they work on, not very accurate where they. 

Well tbf, it was me who went out and bought her a brand new laptop to work on.

So I think I deserve at leats half of the kudos.

[Carl Sagan]

I don't tend come on this thread so I'm struggling to get me head round the last few pages. I think the country has split into two, and half the people are very anxious and tend to stay home and want to wear masks while the other half are fully vaxxed and just want to get busy living again. I'm in that second batch so go out most nights now in a desperate attempt to keep the economy going (which we need if we're going to pay for healthcare).

I work with people on the government SAGE and SPIM (modelling) committees who are trying to work out what's going on. The modellers tell me they haven't a clue. That not a single one of the mathematical models they've created predicted the plateau we've had over the last few months, so they don't know what's coming next.

Across Great Britain we have far left authoritarian governments  in Scotland and Wales who are keen on fierce state-mandated restrictions because it's their nature to want to control the population anyway. And then we have a libertarian on Downing St who would normally say live and let live, and have people make their own choices. Yet we see pretty much identical Covid patterns across GB, which make clear the restrictions don't make any difference. Diddly squat. So they're being introduced in England as a distraction from the appalling governance we see generally, as by scaring the people you tend to have them fall into line behind you. Note Boris has clearly been desperately rooting around to find someone ill from this omicron variant and claimed yesterday that "one person has died with omicron". But he didn't say from Omicron. It's almost certain that this was someone who died from something else and just happened to also test positive. 

[maxjam]

17 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Across Great Britain we have far left authoritarian governments  in Scotland and Wales who are keen on fierce state-mandated restrictions because it's their nature to want to control the population anyway. And then we have a libertarian on Downing St who would normally say live and let live, and have people make their own choices. Yet we see pretty much identical Covid patterns across GB, which make clear the restrictions don't make any difference.

Further to what @Carl Sagan said, here is some data for Scotland/Wales...

And some more for England/Wales...

Despite everything coming out of South Africa telling us omicron is milder than delta, deaths being well below last years numbers and falling, restrictions seem to be ramping up at a time when the Govt should be under severe pressure for breaking their own rules last year.

[maxjam]

35 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Note Boris has clearly been desperately rooting around to find someone ill from this omicron variant and claimed yesterday that "one person has died with omicron". But he didn't say from Omicron. It's almost certain that this was someone who died from something else and just happened to also test positive. 

 

[maxjam]

The world really has turned on its head over the past couple of years. 

We now have a situation in which the Tories will vote through further restrictions aided and abetted by Labour (despite 60+ Tory rebels that actually remember they are supposed to stand for freedom and personal responsibility) and want to start a conversation about mandatory. 

Meanwhile, whilst I have never been a Tory I now find myself in total agreement with someone I said I would rather stick pins in my eyes than vote for at the last election...

 

[GboroRam]

56 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Across Great Britain we have far left authoritarian governments  in Scotland and Wales . 

I was with you but that's laughable

[JoetheRam]

1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said:

And then we have a libertarian on Downing St who would normally say live and let live, and have people make their own choices. 

How is a PM who's imposed lockdown after lockdown 'libertarian'? He's been one of the most authoritarian PM's ever.

He seems the opposite of libertarian, except if you're rich and/or his mate.

Can't believe Labour are voting with this shower tonight as well.

[Bob The Badger]

59 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

I don't tend come on this thread so I'm struggling to get me head round the last few pages. I think the country has split into two, and half the people are very anxious and tend to stay home and want to wear masks while the other half are fully vaxxed and just want to get busy living again. I'm in that second batch so go out most nights now in a desperate attempt to keep the economy going (which we need if we're going to pay for healthcare).

I work with people on the government SAGE and SPIM (modelling) committees who are trying to work out what's going on. The modellers tell me they haven't a clue. That not a single one of the mathematical models they've created predicted the plateau we've had over the last few months, so they don't know what's coming next.

Across Great Britain we have far left authoritarian governments  in Scotland and Wales who are keen on fierce state-mandated restrictions because it's their nature to want to control the population anyway. And then we have a libertarian on Downing St who would normally say live and let live, and have people make their own choices. Yet we see pretty much identical Covid patterns across GB, which make clear the restrictions don't make any difference. Diddly squat. So they're being introduced in England as a distraction from the appalling governance we see generally, as by scaring the people you tend to have them fall into line behind you. Note Boris has clearly been desperately rooting around to find someone ill from this omicron variant and claimed yesterday that "one person has died with omicron". But he didn't say from Omicron. It's almost certain that this was someone who died from something else and just happened to also test positive. 

Scotland and Wales have far-left authoritarian governments, do they?

Uh-huh.

And we fall into two groups of people like you who are vaxxed and trying to help the economy (you're such a trooper) by going out and people who are fearful who are sting at home, do we?

Uh-huh.

And the scientists don't know what's coming next in a new pandemic?

Uh-huh.

No, Wales and Scotland are not far left authoritarian governments. Are you even being serious with that, or taking the pee?

No, we don't fall into two groups, why would somebody claiming to be scientific make such a claim?

Seriously man, that's ludicrous.  I for one am double vaxxed and have had my booster and I go out as and when needed.

And you claim to be scientific?

Could it be that scientists don't know what to expect in the same way that they never know what to expect with something brand new.

Isn't the advancement of science based around not knowing what to expect?

I though modeling, testing, looking at data that you will sometimes get wrong to begin with, because ya know, it's early days,and then adapting  is/was the bedrock of science.

Isn't science a way of thinking?

Most disappointing comment I have ever read on this forum...literally. 

And I mean literally in the old sense when literal meant literal and not metaphorical.

You lost me way earlier than you lost @GboroRam.

 

[Bob The Badger]

41 minutes ago, maxjam said:

 

Brilliant example of when you have nailed your colours to the mast and nothing will change.

I despise this government and I am, at best, ambivalent about our media, but this is a kippers dick short of QAnon.

[Bob The Badger]

BTW @Carl Sagan my wife's best friend left Romania during the Ceausescu regime (although in fairness she was very young, it was her parents who left and took her and her sister to the US), my Grandfather left Poland when the Nazis invaded and the enlisted in the Navy, and I have a client who left China after being targeted as a dangerous individual (because she was a women who wanted to be climber and scale peaks over seas) and they all say 'thank duck we weren't born in Wales' .

 

[Tyler Durden]

I've just been skimming the news on the BBC app. On the Top Stories section out of the first 11 news articles only 2 didn't have any references to the increase in Covid cases.

The other 9 were about schools battling to stay open due to cases rising, West End plays being cancelled and ironically pubs facing mass cancellations.

Am sure the BBC are stoking up this semi form of hysteria themselves and are not helping the matter which is totally irresponsible and unhelpful of an alleged world class news outlet. 

[alexxxxx]

I am a modeller.. Not a financial modeller or health or whatever. 

One thing we always have problems with is explaining the results to 'laypeople' (for the lack of a better word) and the results being misused. Models are only ever going to be good as how well they are calibrated and how good any assumptions are made. The models I build are much less complex than those used to predict policy impacts on a worldwide pandemic and much easier to sense check the models response. 

Models are best used (in my experience) to explore different scenarios to find a plausible range of scenarios rather than make precise predictions. I think the charts that have been shared publically have been a bit unhelpful. Ultimately its a political decision whatever course of action is taken and modelling can only ever be part of the decision making progress. 

At the start of the pandemic there were emails from the government asking for volunteers to join the modelling effort. So how much experience there is globally, is debatable - after all the virus is/was 'novel'. Its a hard job and I expect the modellers have been professional and rational in their approach.. Once the reports out the door to the superiors, how it's used and presented is out of their hands. 

In reality, cases are really starting to take off now which worries me as I have a load of commitments before travelling across the country for Christmas. Getting covid will mean another Christmas away from family. 

I suspect that there will be no more restrictions on meeting others unless there is a drastic worsening of the situation in the next 3/4 days. 

[maxjam]

7 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

Brilliant example of when you have nailed your colours to the mast and nothing will change.

I despise this government and I am, at best, ambivalent about our media, but this is a kippers dick short of QAnon.

Yep I'm happy to assert that the media are complicit in the scaremongering the Govt puts out. 

In the last week alone the media have been called out numerous times for er, lets just say 'misinformation'.  Misinformation that doesn't get corrected (despite 1000s complaints to Ofcom), instead it gets repeated.  Regularly.