The Marriott Problem - Is there one?

[JfR]

If you want to look at it from a purely statistical viewpoint and purely in terms of goalscoring, the main issue is that Lampard's season was a period of overperformance in terms of chance conversion while Cocu's first season was a period of underperformance in chance conversion.

In raw numbers Marriott's last two seasons can be presented as such (it should be noted these are only statistics for league games and the website I am using credits Marriott's goal at Wembley to Waghorn, who had been originally credited for the goal, though I don't believe either of these issues detract from the season-long trends):

18/19
Games (as a sub): 35 (16)
Minutes: 2161
Goals (per 90): 9 (0.4)
xG (per 90): 5.46 (0.24)
xG per shot: 0.096
Shots (per 90): 57 (2.51)
Shots on Target (per 90): 23 (1.01)

19/20
Games (as a sub): 32 (22)
Minutes: 1327
Goals (per 90): 2 (0.14)
xG (per 90): 4.89 (0.35)
xG per shot: 0.114
Shots (per 90): 43 (3.08)
Shots on Target (per 90): 10 (0.72)

The first interesting point to bring up is that Marriott's goalscoring opportunities appear to actually be slightly better under Cocu than they were under Lampard, both in terms of quality, as demonstrated by xG per shot, and in terms of frequency, as demonstrated by shots per 90. While there are issues worth discussing about the expectations of the centre-forward's all-round play in the different systems and Marriott's aptness in fulfilling these roles, the numbers suggest that creation of chances for Marriott himself is similar in both systems.

The key point here, then, is that the numbers suggest Marriott overperformed in finishing in 18/19 and underperformed in 19/20. 9 goals from an xG of 5.46 in 18/19 suggests Marriott finished at 165% the expected rate, while 2 from 4.89 in 19/20 suggests he finished at 41% the expected rate. Both of these figures demonstrate periods of extremes, neither of which are likely to be reproduceable long-term. It is unlikely that Marriott could continue the levels he achieved in 18/19 over an extended period, but also unlikely that he'll continue to underperform to the level he did last season. 

I appreciate many here dislike xG as a form of measurement, so an alternative way of looking at this is in terms of raw shot conversion figures. in 18/19 Marriott had 57 shots, 23 on target and scored 9 goals. This means that in that season Marriott managed to get 40% of the shots he had on target, and scored 39% of those shots on target, giving an overall conversion rate of 16%. In 19/20 Marriott had 43 shots, 10 on target and scored 2 goals. This means that in that season Marriott managed to get 23% of the shots he had on target, and scored 20% of those shots on target, giving an overall conversion rate of 5%.

Both of these ways of measuring clearly demonstrate that Marriott's finishing was far more clinical in his first season than his second, despite creating for himself or being on the end of chances of relatively similar quality and frequency over the two seasons. I think what remains to be seen is whether he will in the long-term be a striker that has periods of being "hot and cold" in his finishing, going through purple patches and barren spells, or if he'll eventually settle at a conversion rate more-or-less in line with his xG. 

[minesahartington]

In all our games he has had chances but is rushing it. Full power shot normally against an inrushing defender. That’s how he injured himself kicking someone’s leg. He needs to relax, not try so hard and take a split second to place his shots. He has the time but is probably reading this forum and panicking.

[i-Ram]

1 hour ago, BOB BIGGS said:

I thought we’d got a gem at first. Not so sure now but many folks seem to think he’d be a star given the right supply. Must be worth a lot of money if we were to sell?

I think there is a player there, but it seems he struggles to get/maintain fitness, and to give him the right supply it would also seem he needs a striking partner pretty much alongside him.  Cocu clearly wants a mobile 6 foot plus striker, someone a little better than Waghorn, contributing goals, but more importantly someone who has the physicality hold it up and create openings for the 3 or 4 playing behind him in the formation. I dont think he was bought with much thought by Frank in truth, other than his mate JayTee recommended him, because he didn't really suit how Frank wanted to play either.  He should attract interest, and reasonable money, from teams wanting to play with two up front. Might be a good replacement for say Wilson at Bournemouth.

[RoyMac5]

39 minutes ago, JfR said:

I appreciate many here dislike xG as a form of measurement, so an alternative way of looking at this is in terms of raw shot conversion figures. in 18/19 Marriott had 57 shots, 23 on target and scored 9 goals. This means that in that season Marriott managed to get 40% of the shots he had on target, and scored 39% of those shots on target, giving an overall conversion rate of 16%. In 19/20 Marriott had 43 shots, 10 on target and scored 2 goals. This means that in that season Marriott managed to get 23% of the shots he had on target, and scored 20% of those shots on target, giving an overall conversion rate of 5%.

What was it before we bought him, do you know?

[JfR]

7 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

What was it before we bought him, do you know?

I really wish I could find out, but the sites I know of that make this information public don't tend to cover below this level in great detail. I'm sure that data will be available somewhere, but I don't know where to find it myself, unfortunately.

[Ambitious]

Marriott has definitely lost a bit of sharpness in 2020, but he needs coaching up. I think the problems with his persistent injuries have taken their toll, perhaps he isn't the hardest worker, but we really need to have a process of getting the best out of players like him otherwise how many more players will we sign that will fall by the wayside? 

[YorkshireRam]

5 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

My concern is that he doesn't seem to have that striker's instinct, he seems to rush his chances and is least effective when he has time to think about it. He's a smash and grab striker and does it well (the Dirties and ManUre being two good cases) but I just wouldn't put my mortgage on him with any chance.

If you think this about Marriott, i'm seriously worried what your thoughts are on Waghorn's finishing ability... ?

[Millenniumram]

Yeah, there is a Marriott problem. And that problem is - he isn’t good enough. Simple as that. 

You can try to defend him by looking at his “luck” with injuries, and saying he isn’t suited to the style of play etc etc. But the reality is, he’s a one trick pony. He is genuinely good at running onto through balls, and causing the opposition defence problems playing off the shoulder. And he will, occasionally, get you goals through that. You can see why he scored so many goals in the lower leagues where that is pretty much all a striker is expected to do. But defenders are far wiser at this level - you have to have more dissensions to your game. And sadly, Marriott doesn’t. The rest of his game is poor - his touch is dire, his movement is static, he doesn’t hold the ball up, and he’s physically weak. Without any of that, he’ll never make it as a good striker at this level, no matter what style of play you implement.

I’ve said it before and I stand by it - I’m convinced some fans give him much more leeway when it comes to his performances than they do for other players, simply because he scored those memorable playoff goals. Much like certain fans were over critical of Keogh and Roos’ performances after they made mistakes at Wembley. Marriott is nowhere near the standard of Chris Martin and Martyn Waghorn - both players who seem to come in for far more criticism than Jack. 

To be honest, starting with Marriott up front on his own is pretty much placing a handicap on your team. He offers so precious little that the other outfield players struggle to play around him. Kind of like having Ben Hamer in goal - when you have a play that bad regularly starting in a key position in your team, it doesn’t matter how good the other players are, you’re destined for failure. Now I’m not saying Marriott starting was the only factor in our poor early season form, but it certainly had a not insignificant impact. I mean even playing a 35 year old Rooney up there instead of him had a positive impact last game - and Rooney didn’t even play particularly well! It’s no coincidence imo.

Really does emphasise the importance of getting a new striker through the door - at the moment the only competent natural striker we have is Waghorn. We’re ducked while he’s injured, and we will be ducked if he gets injured again unless we bring in a new proper hold up man. It should have been an absolute priority, and it’s concerning we haven’t brought someone in yet, as it’s had a significantly detrimental impact to the start of our season. Just hope we manage to bring someone in before next Friday, and we don’t mess the end of a window up again like we did last year. Getting this move right is so important, it’s season defining imo.

[Chris_Martin]

6 hours ago, cheron85 said:

I've been pondering this one since he first arrived

Marriott obviously has a lot of talent, a poachers instinct, lovely feet and a great football mind - But we don't seem to be able to get the best out of him

Do we think this is just cos he was injured last season?

Or is there a problem with his lack of versatility?

Waggers we know isn't the natural striker Marriott is - But in the modern game the ability to adapt, play different styles and different positions seems more and more essential - Which Waggers seems to have and Marriott (it seems) doesn't

Or - Is it too early to judge this still? He was injured last season and this season has only really featured when (as a team) we've been rubbish

Any thoughts

Its because of the playing style. Cocu wants slow build up, possession football. Marriott is at his best when running in behind with quick play, and we don't look for that pass anymore.  

[cheron85]

7 minutes ago, Millenniumram said:

He offers so precious little that the other outfield players struggle to play around him.

I do worry a little about this too - There's definitely a goalscorer in there if you build a system around him - But I'm not convinced he adds as much beyond that as other strikers - Again it's a feature of the modern game which means you need 11 players constantly adding useful play - You can't allow for one as a 'passenger' for large spells

The most obvious example is someone like Javier Hernadez who has bagged goals wherever he's gone - But adds very little in terms of link up play, providing opportunities for others and general play making - And has had his game time limited wherever he's gone because of this

The only counter to that with Marriott is his workrate - His constant pressuring of defenders which we've seen cause them panic and to lose the ball - If we can get a good high-press going with our front 4 he could be vital in that capacity in certain games

[cheron85]

4 minutes ago, Chris_Martin said:

Its because of the playing style. Cocu wants slow build up, possession football. Marriott is at his best when running in behind with quick play, and we don't look for that pass anymore.  

I think this is an over simplification of what Cocu wants - I think he wants slow build up when teams are set in with two lines of defence so we don't lose the ball to a counter - But he also wants us to be able to move with speed and precision (which could suit Marriott)

I think of it like a predator - Like a big cat - Hiding in the tall grass, sneaking up on the prey carefully and patiently and then BAM spring into action - Slow build up play, see the gap and then 3 quick passes and it's in the back of the net

We just haven't had the volume of attacking talent available to play that way

[Millenniumram]

8 minutes ago, cheron85 said:

I do worry a little about this too - There's definitely a goalscorer in there if you build a system around him - But I'm not convinced he adds as much beyond that as other strikers - Again it's a feature of the modern game which means you need 11 players constantly adding useful play - You can't allow for one as a 'passenger' for large spells

The most obvious example is someone like Javier Hernadez who has bagged goals wherever he's gone - But adds very little in terms of link up play, providing opportunities for others and general play making - And has had his game time limited wherever he's gone because of this

The only counter to that with Marriott is his workrate - His constant pressuring of defenders which we've seen cause them panic and to lose the ball - If we can get a good high-press going with our front 4 he could be vital in that capacity in certain games

Agree with most of that. Not sure his pressing ability really comes into the question though, as I’m pretty sure Cocu isn’t interested in playing a High press. He wants to control possession.

[DazaDunn]

6 hours ago, Carnero said:

Offer him to Brizzle as a swap for Diedhiou (or he who shall not be named...)

Funny you should say that, that's exactly what I did on Fifa 21 last night ?

[Curtains]

Marriott to score winner against Forest. 

Instant hero  .

 

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=chelsea+vs+Derby+youtube&docid=608052126753687587&mid=755C263CFF6BC759F44B755C263CFF6BC759F44B&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

[derbydaz22]

When he’s fit and that’s not very often he is probably our best finisher but his hold up and link up play is league 1 standard. We should use him as a impact sub and when he moves on next season it won’t be to a promotion chasing championship team for sure.

[MuespachRam]

4 hours ago, Rammy03 said:

We'll make that judgement when the team actually start creating chances

69 games and 10 goals........ 

[Steve How Hard?]

The Marriott problem- Is there one? 

There most certainly is. His putter is letting him down and his handicap is rising. ⛳⛳

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

8 hours ago, Bwash_Ram said:

All the times in the Frank season that he was brilliant was when he had Mount playing around him giving him good service and creating space for him.

If we could get Sibbo or Knighty to do that he will start bangin them in.

He also needs a good run of starting games like any striker, which he hasnt really had for one reason or another this last year.

Been saying this for a year.

 

[Dimmu]

And yet, Lampard preferred Pyro over Marriott in playoffs...

He ain't good enough to change the tactic to suit him and he is certainly not good enough for the current role. I'd try to sell asap but hard to see any League One clubs spending money in these troubled times.