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The dreaded 11th game


Bris Vegas

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Get your money on a Brentford win this weekend.

Our longest unbeaten run in the league since 1995/6 is 10 games!

In 2014/15 we went 10 games unbeaten before losing to Wigan 1-2 at home.

In 2015/16 we went 10 games unbeaten before losing 1-0 to Forest at their shed.

In 2016/17 we went 10 games unbeaten before being battered 3-0 at Norwich City.

We’re currently on a 10-game unbeaten run with Brentford at PP next.

Can we finally break the mould at make it 11? To be honest, I don’t care much for unbeaten runs when you start to drop points with numerous draws.

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I think you're absolutely right about unbeaten runs and draws. People talk about getting a good point away and that it's important to stay unbeaten. I couldn't care less. Wins are the only thing that matters in this division. Sometimes an unbeaten run can be a millstone round a team's neck and they start not wanting to lose, instead of always wanting to win. We need to go on a run of winning games soon if we're to stay ahead of the pack. Tonight the game was there for the taking and we never took it.

All that said, of course it will be great to go to 11 games unbeaten when we play Brentford, but please let's have a win!

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5 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I think you're absolutely right about unbeaten runs and draws. People talk about getting a good point away and that it's important to stay unbeaten. I couldn't care less. Wins are the only thing that matters in this division. Sometimes an unbeaten run can be a millstone round a team's neck and they start not wanting to lose, instead of always wanting to win. We need to go on a run of winning games soon if we're to stay ahead of the pack. Tonight the game was there for the taking and we never took it.

All that said, of course it will be great to go to 11 games unbeaten when we play Brentford, but please let's have a win!

Agreed. Since 3pts for a win came in unbeaten runs whilst not meaningless can have less of an impact. Win one lose one still a point up on two draws, if a little inconsistent.

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6 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I think you're absolutely right about unbeaten runs and draws. People talk about getting a good point away and that it's important to stay unbeaten. I couldn't care less. Wins are the only thing that matters in this division. Sometimes an unbeaten run can be a millstone round a team's neck and they start not wanting to lose, instead of always wanting to win. We need to go on a run of winning games soon if we're to stay ahead of the pack. Tonight the game was there for the taking and we never took it.

All that said, of course it will be great to go to 11 games unbeaten when we play Brentford, but please let's have a win!

It’s not so much unbeaten runs but runs not conceding goals which give us a heck of a chance of winning games

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What will be will be in the end.

I don't believe in statistics like never getting over the line and breaking a 10 game unbeaten record in a season.

You can look at stats all day long. All they do is give the press and the negative doom mongers something to talk about and that might play on the players minds.

In truth not many of the current crop probably don't care or would even remember if this is THE one or not until someone reminds them.

They will approach the game with only one thing in mind and that is to win. I do agree with Carl Sagan that they might try and not lose instead of going for the win if they are indeed aware

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Seriously though, unbeaten runs are underrated. A win and loss would be worth more points than 2 draws but what happens in the 3rd game, do you bounce back or go on to draw? Those 2 draws followed by a win could then worth more points.

Unbeaten runs build confidence, not walking off the pitch losing the game is good for the soul....and the forum.

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8 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I think you're absolutely right about unbeaten runs and draws. People talk about getting a good point away and that it's important to stay unbeaten. I couldn't care less. Wins are the only thing that matters in this division. Sometimes an unbeaten run can be a millstone round a team's neck and they start not wanting to lose, instead of always wanting to win. We need to go on a run of winning games soon if we're to stay ahead of the pack. Tonight the game was there for the taking and we never took it.

All that said, of course it will be great to go to 11 games unbeaten when we play Brentford, but please let's have a win!

Why would it be great if you couldn't care less? 

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8 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

Get your money on a Brentford win this weekend.

Our longest unbeaten run in the league since 1995/6 is 10 games!

In 2014/15 we went 10 games unbeaten before losing to Wigan 1-2 at home.

In 2015/16 we went 10 games unbeaten before losing 1-0 to Forest at their shed.

In 2016/17 we went 10 games unbeaten before being battered 3-0 at Norwich City.

We’re currently on a 10-game unbeaten run with Brentford at PP next.

Can we finally break the mould at make it 11? To be honest, I don’t care much for unbeaten runs when you start to drop points with numerous draws.

I care about unbeaten runs when you are drawing vs the likes of Bristol and Sheff Utd.

Bristol have gained 2 points on us over the last 2 matches.

If we had lost to them then beaten Millwall, they would have gained 3 points on us.

Unbeaten runs breed confidence, whereas regular losses feel like you are never really in control.

It's not like we are parking the bus to maintain our unbeaten record by playing for draws either. We just couldn't break through their well organises defence last night and finished much stronger than a decent Bristol team.

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2 hours ago, Sparkle said:

It’s not so much unbeaten runs but runs not conceding goals which give us a heck of a chance of winning games

this is it and affects the mindset of teams.  Defenders love not conceding and it starts to pull on the rest of the team's approach.  The need to maintain goalless runs becomes ever more important.  Strangely we may need to lose before we start winning again?

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2 hours ago, jono said:

Draw away, win at home. Will do me.

Part 1 completed. Part 2 on Saturday. 

Exactly.

And we WE WILL beat Brentford. 

There's approx 8 pairs of home and away games to go. Keep up the win/draw achievement and we'll be fine.

And if that doesn't get us promoted it will get us to Wembley which will do me.

 

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14 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

Get your money on a Brentford win this weekend.

Our longest unbeaten run in the league since 1995/6 is 10 games!

In 2014/15 we went 10 games unbeaten before losing to Wigan 1-2 at home.

In 2015/16 we went 10 games unbeaten before losing 1-0 to Forest at their shed.

In 2016/17 we went 10 games unbeaten before being battered 3-0 at Norwich City.

We’re currently on a 10-game unbeaten run with Brentford at PP next.

Can we finally break the mould at make it 11? To be honest, I don’t care much for unbeaten runs when you start to drop points with numerous draws.

Great post and well spotted. In statistics it's called regression to the mean...sooner or later we will lose. 10 games looks like the statistical "rule".  

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A good point away and remaining unbeaten are mutually exclusive issues.  I don't think the unbeaten run continuing last night matters particularly, but that doesn't alter the fact that a point away at Millwall is still a decent result and not to be scoffed at.  

Anyway, the way Bris talks I'd have thought he'd have his money on the opposition for most games! 

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Unbeaten runs are what you need to make the top 2 but we really need to start going for it in games a bit more.

Sheffield United game was a good draw but we got a lucky goal then didn’t make much of an attempt to get a second, let them pile pressure on us and when they equalised, the way this team is set up doesn’t allow us to push for a winner effectively.

I’ve bought into Rowett’s style after ring a bit wary of it early on but I worry about this team if we need to get a goal. And there’s going to be games towards the end of the season where we absolutely need to win, we can’t just wait for other teams to slip up and us to capitalise because sometimes that goal never comes. Particularly when we’re relying on Weimann, Nuge and Lawrence, none of whom have been truly prolific the way Vydra has been.

Most top 2 teams have two prolific goal scorers, particularly when you think about Sean Dyche’s Burnley teams and Pearson’s Leicester team, who I think we’re comparable too. Just worry we’re not attacking enough.

Rowett’s all about caution but no risk it, no biscuit.

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5 hours ago, Spanish said:

this is it and affects the mindset of teams.  Defenders love not conceding and it starts to pull on the rest of the team's approach.  The need to maintain goalless runs becomes ever more important.  Strangely we may need to lose before we start winning again?

Christ imaging this site if we actually lost a match two goalless draws and there are some suicidal on here 

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