Objective Measure of Managerial Success

[CBX1985]

I think what I find challenging is not exerting criticality of Warne, which is a positive, but the lack of objective measure.  Without that, it is inevitable there is always a straw-man of perfect world in which we are peak Barcelona with Pep and all the trimmings versus what we have and where we are.  There are no parameters set for what success looks like only a loss is evidence "a change must be made".  It is difficult to ascertain whether someone has reasonable expectations as it is hard to pin down what would be good and what would be bad (in their eyes) - and for that to be challenged.

I suggest the following questions to determine what good and bad looks like...

What does success look like?  i.e. survival? Top half? Promotion?  

When is this to be judged? i.e. September, Christmas, end of season 

What would failure look like? i.e. not winning league, mid table, relegation

When is this to be judged? As above.  

In case of failure, would you change manager? 

What would you expect the new manager to achieve that could not be done via the existing?  In what timescale?

Who would we wish to replace and at what cost?  What if he is unavailable?

[CBX1985]

Just now, CBX1985 said:

I think what I find challenging is not exerting criticality of Warne, which is a positive, but the lack of objective measure.  Without that, it is inevitable there is always a straw-man of perfect world in which we are peak Barcelona with Pep and all the trimmings versus what we have and where we are.  There are no parameters set for what success looks like only a loss is evidence "a change must be made".  It is difficult to ascertain whether someone has reasonable expectations as it is hard to pin down what would be good and what would be bad (in their eyes) - and for that to be challenged.

I suggest the following questions to determine what good and bad looks like...

1) What does success look like?  i.e. survival? Top half? Promotion?  

2 ) When is this to be judged? i.e. September, Christmas, end of season 

3) What would failure look like? i.e. not winning league, mid table, relegation

4) When is this to be judged? As above.  

5) In case of failure, would you change manager? 

6) What would you expect the new manager to achieve that could not be done via the existing?  In what timescale?

7 Who would we wish to replace and at what cost?  What if he is unavailable?

1 - Survival (by any means)

2) End of the season

3) Relegation

4) End of the season

5) Depends. Warne is a catch 22 with regards he is Lg 1 expert and so would probably be the best we could get even if relegated.  Would not offer new contract.

6) To replace, they would need to have a cogent strategy and not require a ludicrous transfer budget. 

7) Don't know if honest - but cost should not exceed the point of reducing the transfer budget by more than 10%.

[Jourdan]

I think the problem is even when you are winning leagues and trophies, managerial success is highly subjective and job security is hugely volatile.

Goals and performance indicators often move and change, often very quickly over time.

As it stands, Championship survival at the end of the season is the measure of success. If Warne does that, then he should continue in his position.

But this is football. Say we have a really strong start to the season and we’re midtable at Christmas, expectations and ideas of what success looks like will change. Finishing 21st won’t feel like a success then, will it? 

[Day]

25 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

What does success look like?  i.e. survival? Top half? Promotion?  

This season, success would be survival, pure and simple.

25 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

When is this to be judged? i.e. September, Christmas, end of season 

Late November would be the first review point. If we’re in the bottom 3 and look way off it, Clowes would have a decision to make. This would allow a change if needed with January window in mind to give a new man a chance to tinker.

I hate seeing managers giving the boot in the last week of January or early February.

25 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

What would failure look like? i.e. not winning league, mid table, relegation

Relegation.

25 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

When is this to be judged? As above.  

Late November the first review point, if there is enough there to believe we will be ok we stick. After then it really depends on points adrift and points left to be won. You would have to give a new manager a real chance to keep us up. March maybe?

25 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

In case of failure, would you change manager? 

Yes

25 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

What would you expect the new manager to achieve that could not be done via the existing?  In what timescale?

I would be looking for an immediate return to the Championship followed by survival. A club of this size should not br in League 1.

25 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

Who would we wish to replace and at what cost?  What if he is unavailable?

No idea. Would need to see who is available at the time, end of the day it’s not my choice to make so matters little.

[maxjam]

What does success look like?  SURVIVAL

When is this to be judged?  END OF SEASON

What would failure look like?  RELEGATION

When is this to be judged?  END OF SEASON

In case of failure, would you change manager?  * NO

What would you expect the new manager to achieve that could not be done via the existing?  In what timescale?  N/A

Who would we wish to replace and at what cost?  What if he is unavailable?  N/A

 

* If we did get relegated so long as PW hadn't lost the dressing room I'd keep the Lg1 specialist on, he'd have a year left on his contract and an opportunity to get promoted.  I could however see it as an opportunity to reset the club (again) and try a different approach - change manager, invest in youth and accept that it might take a few seasons to get back.

FWIW I think we will stay up reasonably comfortably (maybe a low league position but no threat of relegation with a few weeks to go)

[Tyler Durden]

It's interesting how you've titled the thread objective measures.

As referring to several historic threads there is a great importance placed, by some posters, on more intangible aesthetics which are more subjective for example style of play.

This appears to be of at least equal importance than tangible metrics such as points gained, promotions achieved etc.

[CBX1985]

44 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

It's interesting how you've titled the thread objective measures.

As referring to several historic threads there is a great importance placed, by some posters, on more intangible aesthetics which are more subjective for example style of play.

This appears to be of at least equal importance than tangible metrics such as points gained, promotions achieved etc.

The difficulty is that play is subjective, as you say - I loved yesterday, but also like a nail biting win (in retrospect, obviously 🙂.  Football is a results business - and the easiest way of deciding success in any business is clear metrics. 

However, nothing to stop one from saying an objective measure of success is a free flowing football style by (i.e.) December.  Failure: being more defensive (in that timeframe).  

[Millenniumram]

I think ultimately for most clubs, including our own, the objective measure of any managers performance is league position.

We can all have our own views about how important style of play is, use of the academy, profile of signings, performance in cups etc - but ultimately all of that pales in comparison to league position for almost every club (other than maybe mid table Premier League teams who may be more interested in winning cups). That is what a managers performance is judged on, and on which their future is decided.

In our case, for the first season back in the Championship, avoiding relegation at all costs has to be the expectation. FWIW I don’t think that’s an easy ask, as I don’t think there are three squads worse than ours in this league, but it’s nevertheless what must be achieved by the manager for the long term future of the club. 

Failure to achieve that expectation must result in a sacking, in my view. As harsh as it might seem given the very limited budget he has had to work with, Warne’s time at Derby will come to an end if we are relegated, I’m fairly certain. It would be time for fresh ideas given how long he’s been in charge.

It’s when such a performance is assessed which is the tricky, and subjective part in my opinion. Some people say it should only be judged at the end of the season - but I very much disagree with that view, as you lose any chance to turn your season around before it becomes terminal by waiting that long. I’d say any time after around Halloween is fair cop to assess a managers performance and potentially make a change.

If we found ourselves, for example, in the relegation zone with less than a point game (which I think is almost certain relegation) by the November international break, then it would be time to sack Warne in my opinion.

In terms of expectations on replacement managers… that would depend entirely on the situation in the league at the time they arrive. It’s impossible to say in advance, but would have to be fair based on the situation they inherit - and may be more lenient than those placed on Warne, given the time he has had to build this squad.

Probably the only exception I would say is that if the change comes about after around March time, then it may be too late to save us and Buxton as interim until the summer may be the best shout, at which point we can reassess options.

[MaltRam]

Success is Survival. Failure is Relegation. It's ultimately judged at the end of the season but it's a live thing. A long run of defeats changes the calculus.

I wouldn't change if we went down with honour intact and just fell short on quality. If the squad fell apart and the crowds dwindled, a fresh start would probably be in order.

The new man would gave to bring us straight up yo be judged successful.

Replacements? No idea. I only watch Derby now really, I don't keep up with the rest of the leagues/clubs.

[trappatoni]

I don't think it's black and white - if third bottom is failure I wouldn't call 4th bottom on goal difference success.   I'd say steering clear of the relegation fight would be a decent job done. 

 And it's judged constantly but always with an eye on not being in that bottom 3 at the end of the season.   Giving a manager a full season regardless would make no sense - if we didn't pick up  another point in 2024 I wouldn't expect the manager to be here in 2025 (that's a hypothetical not a prediction).

If we were relegated I can't imagine a circumstance where  I'd want Warne to stay.   If we stay up it depends on how easily, style of play, a judgement of how I think he'd do next season etc.   i actually think we will be ok though and the manager's job wont seriously be under threat. 

If we did change manager I'd be looking for someone with a more possession based philosophy (I actually enjoyed Roseniorball) , someone who was good at working with and bringing through youth players and someone who can win us the Champions League within 5 years. 

Who would that be - I've no idea - I tend to watch the Premier league and Derby and Premier League managers probably aren't coming to us.    

Edited September 1 by trappatoni

[LeedsCityRam]

What does success look like?  ANYTHING ABOVE BOTTOM 6 AND/OR 55 POINTS

When is this to be judged?  ON AN ONGOING BASIS FROM MID OCTOBER ONWARDS

What would failure look like?  CONSISTENT SPELLS IN BOTTOM 3 AND/OR CONSISTENTLY TRACKING BELOW 55 POINT MARK (1.2 POINTS PER GAME)

When is this to be judged?  ON AN ONGOING BASIS FROM MID OCTOBER ONWARDS

In case of failure, would you change manager?  YES

What would you expect the new manager to achieve that could not be done via the existing?  In what timescale?  GET AWAY FROM THE BOTTOM 3 WITHIN 2 MONTHS OF APPOINTMENT

Who would we wish to replace and at what cost?  What if he is unavailable?  ROWETT IF CONTINUING SHORT/MID TERM PRAGMATIC APPROACH

I can't quite get my head around people only judging Warne at the end of the season when there clearly will be strong indications well before then of where the season is likely to end. To not act if we are consistently bottom 3 would be pretty reckless, this club can not sink back into League One again.

For thise who havent seen previous post I made explaining 55 point target, this is the lowest points total at which no team has ever been relegated from the Championship and the amount of points Derby won on the field in that horrendous 2021/22 season.

[CBX1985]

25 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

What does success look like?  ANYTHING ABOVE BOTTOM 6 AND/OR 55 POINTS

When is this to be judged?  ON AN ONGOING BASIS FROM MID OCTOBER ONWARDS

What would failure look like?  CONSISTENT SPELLS IN BOTTOM 3 AND/OR CONSISTENTLY TRACKING BELOW 55 POINT MARK (1.2 POINTS PER GAME)

When is this to be judged?  ON AN ONGOING BASIS FROM MID OCTOBER ONWARDS

In case of failure, would you change manager?  YES

What would you expect the new manager to achieve that could not be done via the existing?  In what timescale?  GET AWAY FROM THE BOTTOM 3 WITHIN 2 MONTHS OF APPOINTMENT

Who would we wish to replace and at what cost?  What if he is unavailable?  ROWETT IF CONTINUING SHORT/MID TERM PRAGMATIC APPROACH

I can't quite get my head around people only judging Warne at the end of the season when there clearly will be strong indications well before then of where the season is likely to end. To not act if we are consistently bottom 3 would be pretty reckless, this club can not sink back into League One again.

For thise who havent seen previous post I made explaining 55 point target, this is the lowest points total at which no team has ever been relegated from the Championship and the amount of points Derby won on the field in that horrendous 2021/22 season.

Thanks for the well thought out reply.  When you say tracking from mid October, and consistent spells below 1.2 points per game, would that be aggregate (i.e 1.2 PPG for the season to date) or within the period in question?  You say consistent spells - so you wouldn't sack on the first spell in that position?  How much time would you give to come up with solutions?

Regarding changes midseason: My view is that you need to have a clear strategy for what comes next.... just putting someone else in is ineffective.  You need to have a clear vision of what they would do better - and why.    

 

Edited September 1 by CBX1985

[Jourdan]

35 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

I can't quite get my head around people only judging Warne at the end of the season when there clearly will be strong indications well before then of where the season is likely to end. To not act if we are consistently bottom 3 would be pretty reckless, this club can not sink back into League One again.

For those who havent seen previous post I made explaining 55 point target, this is the lowest points total at which no team has ever been relegated from the Championship and the amount of points Derby won on the field in that horrendous 2021/22 season.

The end of the season is always the best time to review, unless something is horrifically wrong such as a long run without a win or a long run with many defeats. It would have to be seriously bleak.

Battles for survival tend to go up until the last day of the season and it only takes a small number of games for fortunes to change and for a team to look alive after seeming dead and buried and vice versa.

Clowes doesn’t seem like the type to panic, so I would be surprised if he feels troubled should we find ourselves in the bottom three. It’s a reasonably expected outcome that a newly promoted team will struggle at times.

I would imagine he believes Warne has what it takes to get us out of it and will give him time to get things right.

[Ghost of Clough]

39 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

What does success look like?  ANYTHING ABOVE BOTTOM 6 AND/OR 55 POINTS

When is this to be judged?  ON AN ONGOING BASIS FROM MID OCTOBER ONWARDS

What would failure look like?  CONSISTENT SPELLS IN BOTTOM 3 AND/OR CONSISTENTLY TRACKING BELOW 55 POINT MARK (1.2 POINTS PER GAME)

When is this to be judged?  ON AN ONGOING BASIS FROM MID OCTOBER ONWARDS

In case of failure, would you change manager?  YES

What would you expect the new manager to achieve that could not be done via the existing?  In what timescale?  GET AWAY FROM THE BOTTOM 3 WITHIN 2 MONTHS OF APPOINTMENT

Who would we wish to replace and at what cost?  What if he is unavailable?  ROWETT IF CONTINUING SHORT/MID TERM PRAGMATIC APPROACH

I can't quite get my head around people only judging Warne at the end of the season when there clearly will be strong indications well before then of where the season is likely to end. To not act if we are consistently bottom 3 would be pretty reckless, this club can not sink back into League One again.

For thise who havent seen previous post I made explaining 55 point target, this is the lowest points total at which no team has ever been relegated from the Championship and the amount of points Derby won on the field in that horrendous 2021/22 season.

I'd say similar, except the failure bar dropped to 46 points. Tracked against a simple 1 ppg ratio on various rolling averages (6, 8, 10). Falling below 1 ppg across all of those is a serious concern.

Mitigating factors such as key players missing extended periods would be factored in if their return (or Jan signings) would mean a strong chance of exiting the bottom 3.

If we fall off the pace to such an extreme as needing 1.3 ppg over the rest of the season to meet the 46 point target, then a change of manager would also be required.

As an owner investing millions on the academy, I would also expect a meaningful amount of game time for DBrown. It would signify that there are opportunities if the get themselves into the first team picture. Limited minutes between now and January (given our CF options) would be another concern, as it will hurt youth retention. The integration of youth players would also buy the manager more time if results weren't going as hoped early in the season, with a view to said player adjusting, improving and having a greater impact as the season progresses.

[LeedsCityRam]

8 hours ago, CBX1985 said:

Thanks for the well thought out reply.  When you say tracking from mid October, and consistent spells below 1.2 points per game, would that be aggregate (i.e 1.2 PPG for the season to date) or within the period in question?  You say consistent spells - so you wouldn't sack on the first spell in that position?  How much time would you give to come up with solutions?

Regarding changes midseason: My view is that you need to have a clear strategy for what comes next.... just putting someone else in is ineffective.  You need to have a clear vision of what they would do better - and why.    

 

It would be 1.2 PPG across the season to date rather than the period in question. With regard to consistent spells, I think if we are bottom 3 for more than a month or dip into it for a second occasion that would be grounds for getting a replacement.

7 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I'd say similar, except the failure bar dropped to 46 points. Tracked against a simple 1 ppg ratio on various rolling averages (6, 8, 10). Falling below 1 ppg across all of those is a serious concern.

Mitigating factors such as key players missing extended periods would be factored in if their return (or Jan signings) would mean a strong chance of exiting the bottom 3.

If we fall off the pace to such an extreme as needing 1.3 ppg over the rest of the season to meet the 46 point target, then a change of manager would also be required.

As an owner investing millions on the academy, I would also expect a meaningful amount of game time for DBrown. It would signify that there are opportunities if the get themselves into the first team picture. Limited minutes between now and January (given our CF options) would be another concern, as it will hurt youth retention. The integration of youth players would also buy the manager more time if results weren't going as hoped early in the season, with a view to said player adjusting, improving and having a greater impact as the season progresses.

Yes, its true the safety bar can dip as low as 46 points but I wouldn't ncessarily see 4th bottom as 'success' for exactly the reasons @trappatoni describes. 55 points invariably sees teams slightly above bottom 6 & ftom that yield, you could deduce that we've made a decent fist of our first season back i.e. a 10 point improvement in season 2 would see us threaten the top half, which is ultimately where we want to be in the midterm.

P.s. i share your concern about Academy progression but unlikely this would be a factor in Ckowes performance metrics this season because of the importance of staying up above all else & probable justification from management team that youngsters 'arent ready'. I feel next season would be the first season Clowes might be more forceful in expecting Academy minutes in the first team.

Edited September 2 by LeedsCityRam

[ramsbottom]

Id like to think that all Rams fans would agree that survival is the only thing we should be concentrating on this season, and it should be judged as a massive success if it was achieved by finishing 12th or 21st.  
 

If we were, say, 6 points from safety at the start of December, then I certainly wouldn’t argue with the chairman if he were to make a change.  As @Day said, it achieves nothing when a club decide to sack a manager in the last week of the transfer window.  I’d much rather replace Warne at a point where an incoming boss has time to assess the squad properly, and give him time to implement their style.  What kind of style would I like to see?  Sure we’d all like a dynamic possession based system like Mac 1, but would our current squad suit that?  Hard to tell until asked to try.  Or would we welcome pretty much any manager that gets us out the hole we were in, and managed to steer us to safety, regardless of how we played? 
 

FWIW I don’t mind Warne-Ball, when it clicks, like Saturday, it’s a joy to watch.  Cheering Kenzo chasing back & clattering their No 11, just as much as when he scored makes for a great atmosphere.  And at the end of the day we just want to be entertained don’t we?

I believe a lot of the discord about Warne comes from the 3 relegations.  Say for example he only had 2, and had managed to keep Rotherham up, comfortably on one of those occasions, would we be as nervous about our chances of survival?  I don’t think so.  As unspectacular as some fans think our budget is, and transfer window has been, I bet it’s still a damn sight more than he ever had to work with at his old club.  

Edited September 2 by ramsbottom

[kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong]

Looks like another set of questions with a subversive negative slant...where's the option of awarding a new contract for the coaching team should the team be exceeding expectations?

Only fair to balance this out with positive outcomes as well and how do we reward those?

 

Edited September 2 by kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong

[FindernRam]

Be interesting to know what objectives DC set for this year.

Knowing his background they will probably be S M A R T.

Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time bounded.

There will several in each category and each of his top team will have interlocking objectives. My impression so far is that everybody knows their job and is doing it. Pilots do not like uncertainty they like order and process. I think thats what we are getting!

[CBX1985]

35 minutes ago, kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong said:

Looks like another set of questions with a subversive negative slant...where's the option of awarding a new contract for the coaching team should the team be exceeding expectations?

Only fair to balance this out with positive outcomes as well and how do we reward those?

 

Respectfully, no.  This was an attempt to input accountability for everyone.  Questions like what does success look like and when?  These are purposely and demonstrably neutral so as not to elicit the concerns you outline.  They form the very backbone of fair research - and hence why I have used them.

If you are to say a manager should be sacked, it can be undertaken via no process.  It can be a whim.  I am trying to uncover where and how one would go about this.  We all have a time it would happen, but I am trying to work out what you want Warne to achieve so we have fair metrics when we come to judge him. 

 

[CBX1985]

10 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

Be interesting to know what objectives DC set for this year.

Knowing his background they will probably be S M A R T.

Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time bounded.

There will several in each category and each of his top team will have interlocking objectives. My impression so far is that everybody knows their job and is doing it. Pilots do not like uncertainty they like order and process. I think thats what we are getting!

Exactly.