How can we finish in the top 2?

[Mucker1884]

Just keep on keepin' on... 

[Bris Vegas]

I think it’s just a case of more of the same.

We have had a nice run of fixtures with five of the last seven being at home, with our two away games against lower opposition.

Biggest challenge will come in March time when the pressure will be on, fitness levels will be tested after a long slog and we have the likes of Bolton and Blackpool coming to PP in potential six-pointers.

That said, the next 3 look tasty. 

[Carl Sagan]

21 games in, and we're effectively 4th behind Portsmouth, Peterborough and Bolton. Ahead of Oxford on goal difference. That's decent but at the very low end of expectations of about where we should be. But because only Portsmouth have got away (probably uncatchable) we're definitely in the mix for second place. The points per game are :

Portsmouth 2.29

P'boro 1.95

Bolton 1.95

RAMS 1.90

At this point I'd be surprised if just under 2.1 points per game doesn't prove enough for 2nd place and autos, which would be 96 points, so 56 points from our last 25 games (2.24 ppg for the remainder). That's maybe

17 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats.

I think that's the marker from now on. Are we capable? I think we're not up to the demands the pressure puts on us, and we'll more likely finish 3rd or 4th.

 

[RamLad1884]

Keep Nelson, Wilson and NML fit and in the team as much as possible. Those three are dragging this team out from  mediocrity most games.

[1967Ram]

Teach Ward how to defend or play him in a different position or don't play him. 🤔

[plymouthram]

On 21/12/2023 at 14:53, JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta said:

The January window makes or breaks our season I think. Get it right and we are in a great position. Get it wrong and were going to be trying to cling on to a playoff spot like last season.

Got to agree with this, last season's January window was awful. Lets hope Warne and the recruitment get it right.

[plymouthram]

On 21/12/2023 at 17:15, RodleyRam said:

3 keys to the autos

1. Grind out results when the nights are dark and the going is tough. This is an area we typically struggle with and it's about bouncing back from a bad result as much as anything else. I think we have a solid base, so I don't expect us to lose many but we need to find a way to get 3 points rather than 1 when teams make it really difficult and don't find ourselves 3 or 4 games without a win.

2. Keep our players as fresh as possible. We need to rotate key players where the opportunity arises and limit injuries as much as we possibly can.

3. Add quality in January. There is a balance to be struck between injecting some impetus and destabilising. Last year's window was hugely undercooked, I hope we learn that we simply have to add some depth and quality in January. I would like to think we can keep hold of Bird and Cashin but if that's not possible I do think we need to replace them AND add one or two.

Although no-one really wants to accept it the 4th point is that we need a massive slice of luck...

Every team needs a slice of luck, so far this season, Portsmouth have had bags of it. They are bottom of the list for conceding pens, top of the list for scoring late goals that alter the result. Lets hope their luck dries up and ours gets better. If Cashin goes in January, lets hope it's a loan back until the end of the season. Bird will be very hard to replace, so lets hope the powers to be at Derby ask for big money for him. Grinding out results seems to be happening in recent games, barring the Wycombe match, lets keep it up, getting results when not playing at your best is a good sign. And lastly Mr Warne, please bin the 3 at the back, we've looked vulnerable in defence and against the better sides we will get punished.

[plymouthram]

On 22/12/2023 at 01:04, Carl Sagan said:

21 games in, and we're effectively 4th behind Portsmouth, Peterborough and Bolton. Ahead of Oxford on goal difference. That's decent but at the very low end of expectations of about where we should be. But because only Portsmouth have got away (probably uncatchable) we're definitely in the mix for second place. The points per game are :

Portsmouth 2.29

P'boro 1.95

Bolton 1.95

RAMS 1.90

At this point I'd be surprised if just under 2.1 points per game doesn't prove enough for 2nd place and autos, which would be 96 points, so 56 points from our last 25 games (2.24 ppg for the remainder). That's maybe

17 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats.

I think that's the marker from now on. Are we capable? I think we're not up to the demands the pressure puts on us, and we'll more likely finish 3rd or 4th.

 

These stats are only good guidance if the relavant teams keep up that performance for the rest of the season. At some stage some, if not all will drop off their PPG's. Just look at Portsmouth's March & April's fixtures to consider if they could continue at 2.29 PPG.

[jono]

On 21/12/2023 at 11:48, sage said:

We need to gain an additional 2 points per 6 games on top of what we are doing.Effectively converting a draw into a win.

How will we achieve this?

Does it just depend on the January window and luck with injuries?

Do we need to play differently or manage games differently?

I think we also need to add in the variables of our competitors ? Will they keep going or will they have drops in form and results. 
 

the recent run has been interesting, particularly the last two games. We got 4 points from a possible 6 but played distinctly below our best. Injury free is bound to help but finding the recipe for our own consistency of individual performance is key

I think we are doing most things “ok” . Personally I’d like to see a bit more through the middle;  but it’s the misplaced passes, unforced errors of all types and the willingness / vision to pass and move at pace that will be the deciding factors. 

[G STAR RAM]

34 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Every team needs a slice of luck, so far this season, Portsmouth have had bags of it. They are bottom of the list for conceding pens, top of the list for scoring late goals that alter the result. Lets hope their luck dries up and ours gets better. If Cashin goes in January, lets hope it's a loan back until the end of the season. Bird will be very hard to replace, so lets hope the powers to be at Derby ask for big money for him. Grinding out results seems to be happening in recent games, barring the Wycombe match, lets keep it up, getting results when not playing at your best is a good sign. And lastly Mr Warne, please bin the 3 at the back, we've looked vulnerable in defence and against the better sides we will get punished.

Surely you'd need more information to decide if the 2 things you've picked up are down to look?

For instance if opposition are having less touches in your area, you're less likely to be giving away penalties.

If you're fitness levels are higher you are probably more likely to be benefitting at the end of games.

Think its dangerous to just assume both are down to luck.

[plymouthram]

42 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Surely you'd need more information to decide if the 2 things you've picked up are down to look?

For instance if opposition are having less touches in your area, you're less likely to be giving away penalties.

If you're fitness levels are higher you are probably more likely to be benefitting at the end of games.

Think its dangerous to just assume both are down to luck.

Stats will state that most goals are scored between the 1st minute and the 90th minute. Some stone wall penalties that certain teams have not received and others have is also down to luck (the refs view does make a difference). Fitness levels do not determine a team losing or winning a game in the dying minutes of a match, it's down to game managerment and seeing out the game. It could also be down to luck (not Look?) that a decision goes against you. The Wycombe penalty was given and more stonewall incidents have gone against Derby in other matches. 

I am hoping that luck levels out for all teams and the eventual 2 teams clinching automatic promotion have deserved it over the 46 matches. As for the play-off winners, that could be determined on luck, based on several elements. take last season, just look at the highlights of Derby's match against Sheff Weds. The penalty given, not a lot of contact but given. The red card for Curtis Davies given, when he was'nt even the last man (cover by Cashin). If this game had finished a draw would the outcome of the play-off winners have changed?.

My conculsion is: luck plays a bigger part of a League one team more so than a Championship or Premiership team and thats down to the standard of referee's at this level. If it all levels out for the 2nd half of the season, I believe Portsmouth's lead will be reduced. Another factor would also boil down to the January window, using Ipswich as an example who pushed on to gain promotion and are now benefiting from that.

[G STAR RAM]

14 minutes ago, plymouthram said:

Stats will state that most goals are scored between the 1st minute and the 90th minute. Some stone wall penalties that certain teams have not received and others have is also down to luck (the refs view does make a difference). Fitness levels do not determine a team losing or winning a game in the dying minutes of a match, it's down to game managerment and seeing out the game. It could also be down to luck (not Look?) that a decision goes against you. The Wycombe penalty was given and more stonewall incidents have gone against Derby in other matches. 

I am hoping that luck levels out for all teams and the eventual 2 teams clinching automatic promotion have deserved it over the 46 matches. As for the play-off winners, that could be determined on luck, based on several elements. take last season, just look at the highlights of Derby's match against Sheff Weds. The penalty given, not a lot of contact but given. The red card for Curtis Davies given, when he was'nt even the last man (cover by Cashin). If this game had finished a draw would the outcome of the play-off winners have changed?.

My conculsion is: luck plays a bigger part of a League one team more so than a Championship or Premiership team and thats down to the standard of referee's at this level. If it all levels out for the 2nd half of the season, I believe Portsmouth's lead will be reduced. Another factor would also boil down to the January window, using Ipswich as an example who pushed on to gain promotion and are now benefiting from that.

You said Portsmouth have had bags of luck, can you give some examples?

As I said, getting a penalty is not luck if you are fouled, so I'm assuming they'e had penalties that shouldn't have been given that you can point to?

Scoring a late goal may be lucky if its deflected or goes in off someone's backside for example, just scoring a late goal is not luck, its what you are trying to do.

Your conclusion appears to be that Portsmouth have had more decisions go there way than us. Ive only seen one Portsmouth game that was against us where we were given a very dodgy penalty.

[plymouthram]

15 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

You said Portsmouth have had bags of luck, can you give some examples?

As I said, getting a penalty is not luck if you are fouled, so I'm assuming they'e had penalties that shouldn't have been given that you can point to?

Scoring a late goal may be lucky if its deflected or goes in off someone's backside for example, just scoring a late goal is not luck, its what you are trying to do.

Your conclusion appears to be that Portsmouth have had more decisions go there way than us. Ive only seen one Portsmouth game that was against us where we were given a very dodgy penalty.

Dodgy penalty!! he clearly put his hand up when the ball came over. Also in the same match when they equalised, Marlon pack handled the ball in the build up to their 95th minute equaliser.

[On the Ram Page]

4 hours ago, jono said:

I think we also need to add in the variables of our competitors ? Will they keep going or will they have drops in form and results. 
 

the recent run has been interesting, particularly the last two games. We got 4 points from a possible 6 but played distinctly below our best. Injury free is bound to help but finding the recipe for our own consistency of individual performance is key

I think we are doing most things “ok” . Personally I’d like to see a bit more through the middle;  but it’s the misplaced passes, unforced errors of all types and the willingness / vision to pass and move at pace that will be the deciding factors. 

Totally agree.

[Crewton]

On 21/12/2023 at 23:31, Mucker1884 said:

Just keep on keepin' on... 

 

[Blondest Goat]

On 22/12/2023 at 01:04, Carl Sagan said:

I think that's the marker from now on. Are we capable? I think we're not up to the demands the pressure puts on us, and we'll more likely finish 3rd or 4th.

 

I agree.  I think we'll miss out too.  We haven't looked as good as we did last season at any point this season and our frailties are apparent for large periods of most games.  We just don't pass the ball well enough for a team with top two aspirations in my opinion and that will catch up with us at some point.

[ap04]

14 hours ago, plymouthram said:

My conculsion is: luck plays a bigger part of a League one team more so than a Championship or Premiership team and thats down to the standard of referee's at this level.

Luck = whether the better team wins, refereeing doesn't come into it.

[jono]

On 23/12/2023 at 21:10, plymouthram said:

Stats will state that most goals are scored between the 1st minute and the 90th minute. Some stone wall penalties that certain teams have not received and others have is also down to luck (the refs view does make a difference). Fitness levels do not determine a team losing or winning a game in the dying minutes of a match, it's down to game managerment and seeing out the game. It could also be down to luck (not Look?) that a decision goes against you. The Wycombe penalty was given and more stonewall incidents have gone against Derby in other matches. 

I am hoping that luck levels out for all teams and the eventual 2 teams clinching automatic promotion have deserved it over the 46 matches. As for the play-off winners, that could be determined on luck, based on several elements. take last season, just look at the highlights of Derby's match against Sheff Weds. The penalty given, not a lot of contact but given. The red card for Curtis Davies given, when he was'nt even the last man (cover by Cashin). If this game had finished a draw would the outcome of the play-off winners have changed?.

My conculsion is: luck plays a bigger part of a League one team more so than a Championship or Premiership team and thats down to the standard of referee's at this level. If it all levels out for the 2nd half of the season, I believe Portsmouth's lead will be reduced. Another factor would also boil down to the January window, using Ipswich as an example who pushed on to gain promotion and are now benefiting from that.

I kind of agree but Ipswich were extra special last year. Easily the most accomplished team to come to PP. In a way I didn’t mind losing to them that much. There was no luck, no bad ref, and we played pretty well. They were just better. It’s a great example to follow and a good window will help. 

[DavesaRam]

Sort of more of the same please, as in grinding out results.

But add in putting 3 at the back in the bin, and playing proper football involving the middle of the pitch as well. Oh, and the other top teams faltering and dropping points, please.

[ram59]

Luck can play a significant part in football, some teams seem to have a run of good fortune, some don't. Portsmouth seemed to have a bit of luck on Saturday, their only shot on target was from a dodgy penalty.

Take Barnsley this season, they beat Vale 7-0 on the opening day of the season, guess which team had the most shots in that game, as did Stevenage on Saturday. Remember their bizarre winning goal in injury time recently when their striker barged the keeper, Collins would have earned a yellow card for such a challenge. They got a point recently after the ball went out by a couple of feet, so much so that the other team just stopped playing.

Fine margins can decide games and we seem to be proportionately punished more for individual errors than our opposition. We have scored than twice the amount of goals that we have conceded but I struggle to remember many goals that we have been given. Whereas, a high proportion of the few goals conceded have been down to individual errors by our players or referees. When the luck is going your way other teams don't punish these errors. Take Chelsea at Wolves today, Wolves gave the ball away at 0-0 and somehow Sterling managed to screw up a 3 strikers against one keeper situation, it was Wolves' lucky day today. Maybe they deserved it after some dodgy VAR decisions against them this season. 

ATM, the shocking referee performance in the away defeat at Bolton, is possibly making quite a difference to the league table. I just hope that it doesn't cost us promotion at the end of the season.