Is Warne living on borrowed time?

[Andicis]

8 hours ago, sage said:

What do you think is our best XI from the current squad to play the high tempo pressing game Warne wants? 

Wildsmith, Ward, Nelson, Cashin, Elder, Smith, Bird, Hourihane, Mendez-Laing, Waghorn, Washington I think as a line-up adds some mobility in there.

[Magicman]

13 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

I shouldn’t think playing in front of 27,000 rather than 20,000 (Bristol) and 18,000 (Hull) is a major consideration for most players.

Bristols first  home game had a crowd of 27,000 

[sage]

7 hours ago, Pottig said:

"Warne isn’t the answer. That’s fact. Darren Moore for example is a much better manager.

We can show all the patience we want, it ain’t gonna work."

 

"This is absolutely the pits. What are they playing it? All at Warne’s door. He’s had all summer.

We’re a game and a half in and we are worse off than last season. "

 

"Too early for a next manager thread?"

 

"I blame the EFL. They only allowed us to sign players on max 2 year contracts, yet they were way too lax in waving through Warne’s 4 year deal."

 

[in response to someone saying Warne has only been at the club 9 months] "we have gradually just got worse and worse during his tenure"

 

"Warne is shi* and the team looks shi* "

 

"Or maybe because Warne has not had 2 games but 50 to show what he can do people are sick of the David Brent of Rotherham and can see where this is heading.... "

 

[in response to Warne only winning 3 in 12 games] "Its alright, just give him 10 more games 😴😂"

 

"I think he's toast. You don't start saying that sort of stuff if you haven't long lost the dressing room.

Like it or not that's just not the way to do things"

 

These are just a few. Plenty more suggesting that his time is/should be near, which was my original point. 

And none of them ask for him to be sacked. Some strong criticism and discussing his potential demise, but no one there says 'he has to go' or 'he should be sacked' etc

[Tamworthram]

2 minutes ago, Magicman said:

Bristols first  home game had a crowd of 27,000 

Yes I know but their average last season was 20,000.

[sage]

3 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Wildsmith, Ward, Nelson, Cashin, Elder, Smith, Bird, Hourihane, Mendez-Laing, Waghorn, Washington I think as a line-up adds some mobility in there.

It looks more compact.

One issue is Ward is a winger/wing back and Elder is a full back. 

Where do you think that side would finish?

 

[Ram-Alf]

10 hours ago, sage said:

 

The first half I saw and subsequent interviews suggest something is wrong or going off behind the scenes. No vast iron evidence, just a gut feeling. It's starting to feel very Pearson 

 

Pearson reign was ended by Keogh and co crying to MM about the treatment they were getting verbally from him, Keogh "was seen" as some sort of leader(joiners arms..leader my arse)so there was a negative view from a certain clique.

Warnes tenure was/is by taking on LRs players, PW has now bought in 8 new players and some other staff, Most of which is what PW calls "of similar character"

The players were invited to vote for their Captain, A decision I find strange, Hourihane came out on top, This was a surprise as I thought Bradley would have been the ideal candidate...imo

Now there is PW/LR mix of players, Could this be what you're intimating at?

Now

[Carnero]

19 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Wildsmith, Ward, Nelson, Cashin, Elder, Smith, Bird, Hourihane, Mendez-Laing, Waghorn, Washington I think as a line-up adds some mobility in there.

Agree with the majority, but if the intention is to play a "high tempo pressing game" then Thompson should start in place of either Smith or Hourihane. With our limited midfield options, for me Smith or Hourihane (I'd choose Smith) should play a holding role, and Bird & Thompson should provide the energy.

[RoyMac5]

10 hours ago, jimtastic56 said:

Would you believe it , Knight scored two very well taken goals tonight v Oxford. 

No room for that in our midfield thank you! And an assist! 😉

 

[i-Ram]

8 hours ago, Pottig said:

"Warne isn’t the answer. That’s fact. Darren Moore for example is a much better manager.

We can show all the patience we want, it ain’t gonna work."

 

"This is absolutely the pits. What are they playing it? All at Warne’s door. He’s had all summer.

We’re a game and a half in and we are worse off than last season. "

 

"Too early for a next manager thread?"

 

"I blame the EFL. They only allowed us to sign players on max 2 year contracts, yet they were way too lax in waving through Warne’s 4 year deal."

 

[in response to someone saying Warne has only been at the club 9 months] "we have gradually just got worse and worse during his tenure"

 

"Warne is shi* and the team looks shi* "

 

"Or maybe because Warne has not had 2 games but 50 to show what he can do people are sick of the David Brent of Rotherham and can see where this is heading.... "

 

[in response to Warne only winning 3 in 12 games] "Its alright, just give him 10 more games 😴😂"

 

"I think he's toast. You don't start saying that sort of stuff if you haven't long lost the dressing room.

Like it or not that's just not the way to do things"

 

These are just a few. Plenty more suggesting that his time is/should be near, which was my original point. 

A pottig history of the thread.

[sage]

34 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

Pearson reign was ended by Keogh and co crying to MM about the treatment they were getting verbally from him, Keogh "was seen" as some sort of leader(joiners arms..leader my arse)so there was a negative view from a certain clique.

Warnes tenure was/is by taking on LRs players, PW has now bought in 8 new players and some other staff, Most of which is what PW calls "of similar character"

The players were invited to vote for their Captain, A decision I find strange, Hourihane came out on top, This was a surprise as I thought Bradley would have been the ideal candidate...imo

Now there is PW/LR mix of players, Could this be what you're intimating at?

Now

To an extent.

Style of play, unhinged interviews, seeking to ostracise skilful players.

I'm glad you mentioned Hourihane but I thought it was just me. I think that was a massive slap from the players.

The first half v Blackpool had players openly questioning what was happening in the pitch.

Bird looked to Warne on 40 minutes with outstretched arms. That may have earnt him the brickbats.

[Ghost of Clough]

I started looking at the PPG record of our managers since Clough was replaced in 2013, with results in all competitions counting. Some such as Mac (both times), Lampard and Rosenior started off very well. Others such as Rooney, Clement and Pearson started off badly. However, every managers record started to level off around the 15-20 game mark, with just a couple of exceptions.

Looking at each managers overall PPG record from game 21+, here are a few observations:

• Mac 1 - Hovered around 2 ppg, up until the final 10 game slump, 'when heads were turned'.
• Clement - After an initial purple period between games 20 to 25, form slumped with only Cocu and Rooney having worse ppg records at 33 games
• Mac 2 - Form nosedived just as quickly as Clement's did
• Rowett - After a purple patch in his 30's, he reverted back to norm by the end of the season
• Lampard - A steady 80 points a season record dropped to a steady 73 points per season record which was starting to increase when sacked
• Cocu - Despite a purple patch towards the end of the 19/20 season, he reverted back to norm for his last 10 games in charge
• Rooney - Form dropped over a 15 game period, and it stayed there until he left.
• Warne - It's been downhill since that 20-ish game run came to an end.

[Gerry Daly]

Thats really interesting, thanks for going to the trouble of doing it GOC. So a consistent and fairly sharp downward trend for Warne over 20 odd games or so. We should be getting better not worse. Thats the sort of metrics I would be looking at as the owner of the club or as the board of directors. Thats the sort of thing business people understand, they don't need to know how to set up a team etc. He's in trouble if he doesn't turn it round soon. Lose to Burton and see what mood the crowd is in next Tuesday night  

[Ram-Alf]

52 minutes ago, sage said:

 

I'm glad you mentioned Hourihane but I thought it was just me. I think that was a massive slap from the players.

 

I go back to where Hourihane was hauled off at HT last season, This was a slap in the face to the player imo, Then for some reason PWs collective family attitude rears it's head and lets the players vote for their Captain.

For me that shows some weakness, PW is the manager...not the players, He and his staff should be doing the job, We've all heard about a Captain just calls heads or tails as there should be 11 Captains on the pitch, The Captain is the mouthpiece on the pitch for the Manager, He's the one that's allowed to challenge the Ref(maybe not in todays rules now)it's a respect thing a leader on the pitch one that WILL run through a brick wall for the team...I don't see this in Hourihane.

PW has to step back from lengthy interviews, Joviality, Honesty and all the other gumpf  he comes out with, I'm interested in what goes on the pitch, I don't now need to know his facetime messages, His arm around players, Who he's been talking to ect ect ect.

I see Knight got a brace last night for Bristol City...the Pearson effect 😉

[Guest]

13 hours ago, sage said:

Last 20 games. Won 6 Drew 5 and Lost 9

I'm not calling for him to be sacked but anyone who thinks he isn't under pressure is in Dreamland.

I don’t think he’s on borrowed time yet but the balance has shifted

I think a target of a minimum seven points from the next four games is reasonable and achievable 

Burton on Saturday though could be a tough one 

Edited August 10, 2023 by Monty

[Ghost of Clough]

These are the main concerns I had a year ago:

On 27/10/2022 at 09:41, Ghost of Clough said:

You aren't the first to claim this, but what are you basing it on? Poor results? The majority of the people who don't think Warne should be manager are basing their opinion on much more than results. Style of play, damage to the academy, reducing the chances of keeping our academy graduates, dwindling attendances, the destruction of the feel good factor around the club, etc...

11 months on from when he was appointed, how are we doing against each of my concerns?

Style of play
Some may find old fashioned 'get it out wide and cross it in' play to be entertaining, even if it does result in a high number of shots in some games, but I don't. The lack of control and defensive vulnerability is a key problem that needs to be fixed. There's no flair or creative thinking to play. A ball clipped over a defenders head, a defensive splitting through ball, creating space in a crowed area to curl the ball into the top corner, etc...

Damage to the academy
Thankfully, I cannot see any damage so far. However, this still remains a risk if we don't get out of L1 this season, opportunities aren't given to our academy players, and youngsters in the first team mismanaged or mistreated.

Reducing the chances of keeping our academy graduates
We've already lost Knight. Warne's comments wouldn't have helped keep Bird here and Cashin will also be off next summer if we don't go up. Sibley and Thompson have been played everywhere on the field, and neither are trusted in their best position despite adding vital ingredients to Warne's desired press. Rooney (although not an academy graduate) is unlikely to get game time unless there's an injury or suspension. Some academy players are occasionally included in the matchday squad, but there's never any serious intent to use them, certainly not in their best and most comfortable position anyway.

Dwindling attendances
To my surprise, ST sales remained high this season. Results will obviously have an impact as the season goes on.

The destruction of the feel good factor around the club
The tight bond between fans, players and management was always at risk the day Rosenior was replaced and feels at an all time low right now. Can it be repaired? Of course it can, but it'll take a good run of results to do so.

 

Summary
Out of 5 areas, Warne's seriously failing in two and needs big improvement in another. The other two areas remain at risk.

[DCFC_Sloth]

27 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I started looking at the PPG record of our managers since Clough was replaced in 2013, with results in all competitions counting. Some such as Mac (both times), Lampard and Rosenior started off very well. Others such as Rooney, Clement and Pearson started off badly. However, every managers record started to level off around the 15-20 game mark, with just a couple of exceptions.

Looking at each managers overall PPG record from game 21+, here are a few observations:

• Mac 1 - Hovered around 2 ppg, up until the final 10 game slump, 'when heads were turned'.
• Clement - After an initial purple period between games 20 to 25, form slumped with only Cocu and Rooney having worse ppg records at 33 games
• Mac 2 - Form nosedived just as quickly as Clement's did
• Rowett - After a purple patch in his 30's, he reverted back to norm by the end of the season
• Lampard - A steady 80 points a season record dropped to a steady 73 points per season record which was starting to increase when sacked
• Cocu - Despite a purple patch towards the end of the 19/20 season, he reverted back to norm for his last 10 games in charge
• Rooney - Form dropped over a 15 game period, and it stayed there until he left.
• Warne - It's been downhill since that 20-ish game run came to an end.

This is an absolutely fascinating graph, thanks for making it. How are you calculating the ppg? Is it an average of a certain number of games, or cumulative as it goes? would it be possible to make a graph that shows how the managers did in their first 50 games, so we can see the fluctuations in more detail? 

[Ghost of Clough]

17 minutes ago, Gerry Daly said:

Thats really interesting, thanks for going to the trouble of doing it GOC. So a consistent and fairly sharp downward trend for Warne over 20 odd games or so. We should be getting better not worse. Thats the sort of metrics I would be looking at as the owner of the club or as the board of directors. Thats the sort of thing business people understand, they don't need to know how to set up a team etc. He's in trouble if he doesn't turn it round soon. Lose to Burton and see what mood the crowd is in next Tuesday night  

From an owner/chairman point of view, I would say it's too soon to judge based off the general trend. After all, we're roughly where we were prior to that 20 game purple patch. It's a case of whether that trend continues to worsen or not. It's all down to Warne's judgment infixing it at this point. He needs to identify the cause and address it, whether that be a couple of signings away from making it all click, tweaking the style of play to suit the existing players, or changing the formation or players selection to make the current style work.

[Ghost of Clough]

3 minutes ago, DCFC_Sloth said:

This is an absolutely fascinating graph, thanks for making it. How are you calculating the ppg? Is it an average of a certain number of games, or cumulative as it goes? would it be possible to make a graph that shows how the managers did in their first 50 games, so we can see the fluctuations in more detail? 

It's cumulative. The first 15 games is erratic and doesn't tell you anything. I started at 20 is it removed Wassall's final 3 games in charge to keep the chart looking a bit cleaner. I can certainly do a rolling average too.

Here's the cumulative points (including cup games) for the same selection of managers. Warne is now just 1 point ahead of Cocu, and 4 behind Lampard and Rowett

This is the same, but limited to game 50:

[May Contain Nuts]

53 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Warne - It's been downhill since that 20-ish game run came to an end.

Ah the run. It still gets mentioned a lot and used as a counter point to criticism.

Of course an unbeaten run is difficult to achieve and is nothing to be sniffed at, but I do remember looking at the figures last season and even in that spell the PPG was well below that achieved by others going on comparable runs.  It was most similar statistically to the one Jim Smith went on all those years back, but that was of course in a higher division.

There was a lot of value placed on us going unbeaten, but ultimately it's just glorifying draws, when you'd be better off losing 1 then winning 1 for 3 points than maintaining an unbeaten run for 2 points.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[Tamworthram]

57 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I started looking at the PPG record of our managers since Clough was replaced in 2013, with results in all competitions counting. Some such as Mac (both times), Lampard and Rosenior started off very well. Others such as Rooney, Clement and Pearson started off badly. However, every managers record started to level off around the 15-20 game mark, with just a couple of exceptions.

Looking at each managers overall PPG record from game 21+, here are a few observations:

• Mac 1 - Hovered around 2 ppg, up until the final 10 game slump, 'when heads were turned'.
• Clement - After an initial purple period between games 20 to 25, form slumped with only Cocu and Rooney having worse ppg records at 33 games
• Mac 2 - Form nosedived just as quickly as Clement's did
• Rowett - After a purple patch in his 30's, he reverted back to norm by the end of the season
• Lampard - A steady 80 points a season record dropped to a steady 73 points per season record which was starting to increase when sacked
• Cocu - Despite a purple patch towards the end of the 19/20 season, he reverted back to norm for his last 10 games in charge
• Rooney - Form dropped over a 15 game period, and it stayed there until he left.
• Warne - It's been downhill since that 20-ish game run came to an end.

It's a fascinating and excellent graph however, the data needs to be viewed in context (external factors in Warne's case may actually cancel each other out). What division were we playing in? what sort of budget did they have available? what sort of restrictions were they working under? what sort of players did they have at their disposal?