Worst case scenario

[SWRam]

8 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said:

Exeter City? Bit of a drive that.

Not too far for me ?

 

[Anon]

2 hours ago, rustylee said:

If it drags on much longer before the worst happens would there even be time to get a new club set up in time to start next season 

This is an important question. As things stand it's still unlikely that the worst will happen, but it would be good to know what the deadlines and requirements are for applications to the appropriate step on the non league pyramid.

Call it scaremongering if you must, but to me it's sensible to at least start thinking about these things given the abject failure of the administrators to meet any deadlines thus far 

[24Charlie]

4 hours ago, Red Ram said:

Not too soon at all. It's two weeks before the League One fixtures are due to be out. The EFL need to be sure we can actually complete the season before scheduling them. Things are going to need to happen at record speed if we're going to survive. I still think we probably will but it's not far off 50:50 at this point. We need to accept that liquidation is a realistic possibility. The question asked by Jimbobob are entirely legitimate at this point. Personally I'd like to know the answers - it would make it easier to deal with the possibility that it might happen!

I think the fixtures being out is no deadline. It’s the admins who liquidate a club not the EFL. Sure from their point of view it makes life easier not to have to redo the fixture list and let’s not forget they where quick enough to say they would draw up two fixture lists last season as we awaited punishment.

The EFL do not have a dog in this hunt but in my opinion they just want to be seen that they are applying pressure on the admins to get a deal done. A cynical person might say they only got proactive after being chewed out by Team Derby MPs and are desperate to look like they are all over it in a bid to avoid legislation.

Lets not forget how slow they acted when it suited them to scupper previous deals.

[Chopper]

I know about the odds, and what Nixons said, and that more logical minded people than me know that it wont happen, but what happens after liquidation has entered my mind a few times.

It has also been something I've been very changeable with during these last few months.

During the initial "grief" I tend to think, I'd be done with football. More and more of it turns me off these days. I may be a passive viewer of some games, but there are no stakes.

Then my mind goes to Alfreton Town, live here and have gone to a fair few games as a kid. Heh, probably saw Pickford, and Flint before most did. I like the club, like what Wayne Bradley's done with it (There is a proper local owner) and I hope they have every success they can.

But.

I was born in Derby, I am a Derbean. I joke that I wish I was born in North London, so I can take my pick, but I wasn't and gladly so. To my mates a common rant back in the day was: "Right that's it I'm supporting Villa", but everyone knew there was no quitting, I am Derby. Always was, and if a Pheonix team rose, it would be a team that is based in my city, so it's my team. I am a "first generation" Derby fan, my family not bothered about football really, I developed the passion myself. That was before I knew about Clough, Taylor, Mackay et al, I chose a Derby with zero history in my eyes (I was 6) can an adult me do no less?

[Gritstone Ram]

I think I’d start to watch non league football. I doubt I could watch any other club.

[bimmerman]

4 hours ago, Bris Vegas said:

Exeter City? Bit of a drive that.

I could walk there and use my season ticket ?..?

[OoooMarkWright]

11 hours ago, 24Charlie said:

I think the fixtures being out is no deadline. It’s the admins who liquidate a club not the EFL.

If we can’t show proof of funds for the season then the EFL will remove our ‘golden ticket’. That’ll be basically be us done. I don’t see how we can prove funds for a whole season at this moment in time without a takeover. 

[24Charlie]

14 minutes ago, enachops said:

If we can’t show proof of funds for the season then the EFL will remove our ‘golden ticket’. That’ll be basically be us done. I don’t see how we can prove funds for a whole season at this moment in time without a takeover. 

Of course but the only way we won’t be able to show funds is if we are liquidated. Which is down to the admins and nothing to do with the EFL as I stated in the complete post you have referenced here.

The EFL are a side show in this not a player.

Edited June 12, 2022 by 24Charlie

[Carnero]

15 minutes ago, enachops said:

If we can’t show proof of funds for the season then the EFL will remove our ‘golden ticket’. That’ll be basically be us done. I don’t see how we can prove funds for a whole season at this moment in time without a takeover. 

Of course we can, even in the worst case scenario the administrators would set out a plan that included selling the few remaining playing assets in Bielik, Bird, Knight, Sibley, Byrne(?), Buchanan (?). Even at knock down prices that would be a good £10m. We'd then have to set a tight budget and run the club at break even or small profit by filling the squad with cheap freebies and loanees.

We also would have broadcasting, sponsorship and matchday income to take into account.

Whilst I don't think we're going to be in this scenario, it's not correct to say that we couldn't show a plan of how we can fund the season.

[OoooMarkWright]

6 minutes ago, 24Charlie said:

Of course but the only way we won’t be able to show funds is if we are liquidated. Which is down to the admins and nothing to do with the EFL as I stated in the complete post you have referenced here.

The EFL are a side show in this not a player.

Without a takeover I’m not sure we’ll be able to show funds. They can remove the ticket before liquidation, hence the urgency to complete the takeover. No one will take us over if we’ve been kicked out the league, so the EFL do hold some pretty big cards here

[OoooMarkWright]

Just now, Carnero said:

Of course we can, even in the worst case scenario the administrators would set out a plan that included selling the few remaining playing assets in Bielik, Bird, Knight, Sibley, Byrne(?), Buchanan (?). Even at knock down prices that would be a good £10m. We'd then have to set a tight budget and run the club at break even or small profit by filling the squad with cheap freebies and loanees.

We also would have broadcasting, sponsorship and matchday income to take into account.

Whilst I don't think we're going to be in this scenario, it's not correct to say that we couldn't show a plan of how we can fund the season.

I think it would be very tight.  Also, wouldn’t those players all need to be sold within the next 2 weeks? There would be no guarantee on fee. We’d have to show evidence of funds in account. We’d then need players to actually compete - around 20 players. We also owe on Bielik so would lose money on that deal. It’s panic stations to get this done. 

[Carnero]

13 minutes ago, enachops said:

I think it would be very tight.  Also, wouldn’t those players all need to be sold within the next 2 weeks? There would be no guarantee on fee. We’d have to show evidence of funds in account. We’d then need players to actually compete - around 20 players. We also owe on Bielik so would lose money on that deal. It’s panic stations to get this done. 

I think you're confusing setting out a plan of how we're funding the season, with having all funds for the season ready in a bank account before the season even starts!

Name me a single club that has it's annual income sat in the bank account ready to go before the season starts?!

Edited June 12, 2022 by Carnero

[OoooMarkWright]

5 minutes ago, Carnero said:

I think you're confusing setting out a plan of how we're funding the season, with having all funds for the season ready in a bank account before the season even starts!

Name me a single club that has it's annual income sat in the bank account ready to go before the season starts?!

With regards transfers though - we can’t estimate what we’d get if we sold those players. I imagine it’d have to be there in the account? I have no idea, obviously. But we wouldn’t get 10 million for those in our current plight. I genuinely fear the EFL could pull the plug. I’m not sure we have enough assets to flog to see us through. We scraped by last year. Another year could be a step too far. 

[Carnero]

8 minutes ago, enachops said:

With regards transfers though - we can’t estimate what we’d get if we sold those players. I imagine it’d have to be there in the account? I have no idea, obviously. But we wouldn’t get 10 million for those in our current plight. I genuinely fear the EFL could pull the plug. I’m not sure we have enough assets to flog to see us through. We scraped by last year. Another year could be a step too far. 

The amount we'd get for transfers was just an example.

We have other income streams as a club.

Just set budgets to fit income and stick to them!

[BuxtonRam74]

In Italy it seems to happen all of the time. They just change the club’s full name slightly and start again, but I think a lot of the clubs rent their grounds from the council so start up at the same stadium but in a lower league. I’m still convinced we won’t go under, I think Mike Ashley has been vocal enough in the last couple of days to show that he’s genuinely interested in stepping in.

[Chopper]

1 hour ago, Carnero said:

Of course we can, even in the worst case scenario the administrators would set out a plan that included selling the few remaining playing assets in Bielik, Bird, Knight, Sibley, Byrne(?), Buchanan (?). Even at knock down prices that would be a good £10m. We'd then have to set a tight budget and run the club at break even or small profit by filling the squad with cheap freebies and loanees.

We also would have broadcasting, sponsorship and matchday income to take into account.

Whilst I don't think we're going to be in this scenario, it's not correct to say that we couldn't show a plan of how we can fund the season.

At the risk of this becoming the admin thread, part 2 I'm not confident this could happen. Sure we can sell the 6 we have left to demonstrate funds for the season, but with the full weight of embargoes on us until we exit admin we will then have 0 players on the books come the end of June. The bad news for Q is that this will need to end in the next month, as there wont be a club to ... (chooses words carefully) ... trade, as we drop below the basic faculties required for a club to function so the rest of the assets get liquidated.

[CornwallRam]

There are two different versions of a Pheonix club. 

The first would be Where a new owner bought the name and  badge from the administrators and transferred them to a new company. It would be done with EFL approval. The club would still be Derby County Football Club although the company behind it would be different. It would also be debt free, but would also need tie up some small technical details like finding players, coaches, a ground and training facilities. 

To get EFL approval, I would expect the new owner to agree a higher payment than might be expected, so the creditors at least got something. This club would then have the golden share. FA protocol is for a three division demotion, so we should drop to the Conference. However, it was muted that there was an agreement for a League 2 place.

The problem here us that it is so late in the day to organise. The new owners would still need to show funding for the season plus a ten year stadium lease, and a League 2 club would suddenly find themselves in League 1, leaving their own business plan in tatters.

 

Then there's the other type of Pheonix. Effectively this would just be a new club. It could have a similar name, and would be likely to attract a decent fan base due to the need for football in Derby/shire. 

In theory it should apply for entrance into tier 11 - probably Midland League Division 2. However, semi pro clubs tend to fold regularly. It's likely that there'd be a vacancy a couple of divisions higher for a club with 5k plus supporters. 

This is probably a lot easier to organise. It would only need a few thousand £ and it's not going to cause the issues with fixture lists and business plans at this level. The downside is that it would feel a lot less like Derby County. 

[curb]

9 hours ago, Carnero said:

I think you're confusing setting out a plan of how we're funding the season, with having all funds for the season ready in a bank account before the season even starts!

Name me a single club that has it's annual income sat in the bank account ready to go before the season starts?!

There are a couple of small details you’re missing, the stadium sale has to happen at the same time as a takeover, No takeover, no ground to play in.

Also we can’t sign players in Administration so would have 5 players to start the season, unless we sell them to fund the season, in which case we would have 0 players.

It really is in the hands of the EFL, and they will decide if and when they take away the league membership.

0 players playing in 0 stadium?

That’s not going to be very watchable.

[kash_a_ram_a_ding_dong]

If the worse came to be,I'd have the choice of watching my birth town team, Ilkeston (doing really well but it's a bit of a jaunt from where I now live) or taking the easier option of watching Burton (slightly closer and it's a nice club)

I'd certainly not switch to stoke or any other West mids/ Brummie clubs,Burton at least feels more Derbyshire than Staffs to my mind.

Let's not let this have to be a decision I'll ever have to make mind.

[1903]

10 hours ago, CornwallRam said:

There are two different versions of a Pheonix club. 

The first would be Where a new owner bought the name and  badge from the administrators and transferred them to a new company. It would be done with EFL approval. The club would still be Derby County Football Club although the company behind it would be different. It would also be debt free, but would also need tie up some small technical details like finding players, coaches, a ground and training facilities. 

To get EFL approval, I would expect the new owner to agree a higher payment than might be expected, so the creditors at least got something. This club would then have the golden share. FA protocol is for a three division demotion, so we should drop to the Conference. However, it was muted that there was an agreement for a League 2 place.

The problem here us that it is so late in the day to organise. The new owners would still need to show funding for the season plus a ten year stadium lease, and a League 2 club would suddenly find themselves in League 1, leaving their own business plan in tatters.

 

Then there's the other type of Pheonix. Effectively this would just be a new club. It could have a similar name, and would be likely to attract a decent fan base due to the need for football in Derby/shire. 

In theory it should apply for entrance into tier 11 - probably Midland League Division 2. However, semi pro clubs tend to fold regularly. It's likely that there'd be a vacancy a couple of divisions higher for a club with 5k plus supporters. 

This is probably a lot easier to organise. It would only need a few thousand £ and it's not going to cause the issues with fixture lists and business plans at this level. The downside is that it would feel a lot less like Derby County. 

Forgive me for barging in on your messageboard but I come in peace as a Bury fan. I have never posted on another club’s board before, this could be my first and last time. 
Firstly, the very best of luck. In cases like this it’s the fans, the innocents in all this, who suffer. We feel your pain, we too have been through the mill and beyond. 
Bury FC, the original club, were kicked out of L1 (having just won promotion) by the EFL in late August 2019,  about 3 weeks into the new season, our first half dozen fixtures were postponed so there was no record to expunge. The club was subsequently placed into administration. It remains in administration to this day but is effectively just a shell, awaiting ultimate liquidation with debts of over £12M. 
If scenario 1 above had happened we would have been reinstated at tier 6 in the pyramid. It didn’t, scenario 2 happened, and a “Phoenix” club called Bury AFC was formed by the fans and funded by the fans. It was admitted into tier 10 of the pyramid, the lowest level under FA auspices. Last season, the first full covid free season, it won promotion losing only one game. The highest home crowd was 1,885, not huge but enormous in a league where 100 or so is the norm. We ground share with Radcliffe AFC, another non league club within the borough of Bury. 
Bury AFC is not of course strictly speaking a Phoenix, but is referred to as such for ease of reference. It carries probably about 60pc of the original fan base. Not everyone has got on board but the majority have. The vibe is brilliant, partly as we are successful on the pitch of course, so never be afraid if this is your fate (it won’t be), you would still have a gas in “non league”, there are so many pluses compared to the EFL which make the match day experience highly enjoyable;  and with your fanbase you would quickly climb back up the pyramid. 

A highly unexpected turn of events happened more recently when a very small group of Bury fans emerged from nowhere with no mandate from anyone, but having apparently got strong connections with the Conservative Party. With the help of a wealthy businessman-fan now living in the USA, and with the financial help of the government which has provided up to £1M of matched funding (“levelling up”?), and the potential help of the (Labour) council, that group of fans (calling themselves Est 1885, the date of the founding of the original club) managed to buy the ground Gigg Lane, which had been subject to a charge for a loan of some £3.5M, and had fallen into a state of some disrepair. So Est 1885 have a ground but no football club, and Bury AFC are a football club with no ground (of their own). Talks are ongoing between the two with a view to a merger down the line. 

A word about the EFL. Yes as useless as a chocolate teapot but presumably facing the chop or severe reform following the government’s fan-led review. Remember the EFL is in essence the 72 clubs - it gets its power from the clubs, maybe it is useless because the clubs have only ever favoured light-touch regulation of themselves for obvious reasons, so have never given the EFL the powers it really needed to provide effective governance. 

So the very best of luck and whatever happens - there is no need to despair.