Finance thread 2022.

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, cstand said:

Our current debt is 100% of GDP.

In 1990 it was 27% of GDP.

 

 

Early 1990's Recession
The Great Recession
Covid

How could they have been avoided, and what would the debt have looked like without them occurring?

[cstand]

5 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Genuine question, what would be an acceptable GDP:Debt ratio to you, and which of Health, Education, Defence are you getting rid of to achieve that?

 

Germany and the EU recommend debt ratio was 60% before covid might be 80% now so that figure is about right.

15% cuts across the board apart from Health sector has been recommended by a think tank not sure which one can’t remember 

[PistoldPete]

37 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Genuine question, what would be an acceptable GDP:Debt ratio to you, and which of Health, Education, Defence are you getting rid of to achieve that?

 

Isn't it better to ask the younger generation that .. they are the ones who will be lumbered with the debt? To the official National Debt you have to add student loans, PPI contracts, unfunded public and State Pensions.. which take our total debt towards £10 trillion , which is about 5 times the GDP. If we wanted to repay that debt from taxation , we would have to double the rate of taxation for about 15 years and that doesn't even allow for any interest payments.      

[sage]

2 minutes ago, cstand said:

Germany and the EU recommend debt ratio was 60% before covid might be 80% now so that figure is about right.

15% cuts across the board apart from Health sector has been recommended by a think tank not sure which one can’t remember 

Probably the IEA.

Would love to know how you would cut 15% from the education budget

[sage]

1 hour ago, cstand said:

Common sense view from zero hedge explaining how large government deficits, constant money printing, wasting tax payers money is the problem which I have complained about for years, not just in this country but around the world.

The bond markets around the world are down, all currencies around the world are down against the US dollar.

Our only hope is to have another grocers daughter for PM or else we are all stuffed.

But the chances of having a civilised debate are over because activists have brainwashed the young that we are all victims and the only solution is to tax the rich people which history teaches you it always ends in failure.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liz-truss-not-blame-uks-market-turmoil-bank-england

You can't destroy our manufacturing sector, mining communities and infrastructure whilst spaffing the North Sea Oil income on the tax cuts for rich once, surely. 

[JoetheRam]

2 minutes ago, cstand said:

Germany and the EU recommend debt ratio was 60% before covid might be 80% now so that figure is about right.

15% cuts across the board apart from Health sector has been recommended by a think tank not sure which one can’t remember 

Thanks. 

I guess my take is that national debt doesn't really matter when you can print your own money and therefore cutting public service spending in order to reign in the debt is a pointless exercise that just hurts the nations citizens. 15% off all departments would leave an absolute husk of a society in my opinion.

 

[Ghost of Clough]

7 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Thanks. 

I guess my take is that national debt doesn't really matter when you can print your own money and therefore cutting public service spending in order to reign in the debt is a pointless exercise that just hurts the nations citizens. 15% off all departments would leave an absolute husk of a society in my opinion.

 

I'm not sure I follow that 15% figure anyway. Anything greater than a fraction over 4% would start reducing the debt.

There was an expected £42.7b deficit (no idea how it's changed in recent weeks). Fancy having a go at taking that £42.7b away from something?

• Health - £210.9b
• Pensions - £178.5b
• Welfare - £142b
• Education - £104.9b
• Defence - £60.2b
• Transport - £46.9b
• Protection - £42.5b
• General Government - £33.5b
• Other spending - £152.9b
• Interest - £88b

[PistoldPete]

1 hour ago, JoetheRam said:

Thanks. 

I guess my take is that national debt doesn't really matter when you can print your own money and therefore cutting public service spending in order to reign in the debt is a pointless exercise that just hurts the nations citizens. 15% off all departments would leave an absolute husk of a society in my opinion.

 

The money markets didn’t seem to agree… the funding gap of £70 billion pa sent bond yields upwards, currency down .. making imports more expensive and so fuelling more inflation . Printing more more money also fuels inflation. That hurts the nations citizens too… as we are finding right now. 

[JoetheRam]

26 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

The money markets didn’t seem to agree… the funding gap of £70 billion pa sent bond yields upwards, currency down .. making imports more expensive and so fuelling more inflation . Printing more more money also fuels inflation. That hurts the nations citizens too… as we are finding right now. 

I'd argue it was more the uncertainty caused by Kwarteng and Truss's failure to provide the markets with OBR figures that caused the bond yields to go up.

Cutting spending is just one way of controlling inflation. You can also increase taxation (which can be applied to those who have the means) and you can increase production (by investing in the right places - which this government haven't in the last 12 years).

[PistoldPete]

50 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

I'd argue it was more the uncertainty caused by Kwarteng and Truss's failure to provide the markets with OBR figures that caused the bond yields to go up.

Cutting spending is just one way of controlling inflation. You can also increase taxation (which can be applied to those who have the means) and you can increase production (by investing in the right places - which this government haven't in the last 12 years).

Increasing taxation (or at least having higher marginal rates of tax) doesn't work. For reasons I have set out in previous posts. It is counter productive.. literally it provides a disincentive to work...  which can not only reduce the tax receipts you expected to get but also dampens down production. So both directly and indirectly you end up with less tax in the end.  

[cstand]

3 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Early 1990's Recession
The Great Recession
Covid

How could they have been avoided, and what would the debt have looked like without them occurring?

Recessions are natural part of the economy cycle, avoiding recessions by massive government deficits, money printing and artificial low interest rates just kick the can further down the road so when the inevitable next recession does happen the government can no longer help anyone.

[cstand]

3 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I'm not sure I follow that 15% figure anyway. Anything greater than a fraction over 4% would start reducing the debt.

There was an expected £42.7b deficit (no idea how it's changed in recent weeks). Fancy having a go at taking that £42.7b away from something?

• Health - £210.9b
• Pensions - £178.5b
• Welfare - £142b
• Education - £104.9b
• Defence - £60.2b
• Transport - £46.9b
• Protection - £42.5b
• General Government - £33.5b
• Other spending - £152.9b
• Interest - £88b

It was the institute for fiscal studies who recommended the 15% cut over the medium term.

https://ifs.org.uk

Edited October 18, 2022 by cstand

[PistoldPete]

Anyway first frost of the year this morning. I still haven't flinched and put the central heating on yet. After Jeremy's mini / maxi Budget yesterday I don't think I will until either Putin or me are pushing up daisies, whichever of us goes first.  

[cstand]

9 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

Anyway first frost of the year this morning. I still haven't flinched and put the central heating on yet. After Jeremy's mini / maxi Budget yesterday I don't think I will until either Putin or me are pushing up daisies, whichever of us goes first.  

Just seen this today worth looking at if anyone requires it.

https://www.warmwelcome.uk

[AndyinLiverpool]

1 hour ago, cstand said:

Recessions are natural part of the economy cycle, avoiding recessions by massive government deficits, money printing and artificial low interest rates just kick the can further down the road so when the inevitable next recession does happen the government can no longer help anyone.

I didn't think it was the government's role to help anyone. 

[Miggins]

2 hours ago, PistoldPete said:

Anyway first frost of the year this morning. I still haven't flinched and put the central heating on yet. After Jeremy's mini / maxi Budget yesterday I don't think I will until either Putin or me are pushing up daisies, whichever of us goes first.  

@PistoldPete. Worry no more about heating costs! I have the solution as read a couple of hours ago.

Obviously we have to turn the heating down and generally watch the pennies, but according to a home improvement /makeover celeb we need to get our paintbrushes out and paint any beige rooms either red, green or dark blue. Perky pictures on these walls, beautiful cosy cushions on the sofas and rugs can make a room feel warmer.

I appreciate that colour can make a room 'seem' warmer, but I doubt a tin of Dulux is going to protect anyone from hypothermia this winter. 

I suggest that anyone who can afford cans of paint, pictures, cushions and rugs is better off putting the heating up a notch or two.

[PistoldPete]

1 hour ago, Miggins said:

@PistoldPete. Worry no more about heating costs! I have the solution as read a couple of hours ago.

Obviously we have to turn the heating down and generally watch the pennies, but according to a home improvement /makeover celeb we need to get our paintbrushes out and paint any beige rooms either red, green or dark blue. Perky pictures on these walls, beautiful cosy cushions on the sofas and rugs can make a room feel warmer.

I appreciate that colour can make a room 'seem' warmer, but I doubt a tin of Dulux is going to protect anyone from hypothermia this winter. 

I suggest that anyone who can afford cans of paint, pictures, cushions and rugs is better off putting the heating up a notch or two.

Average fuel bills are "capped" at £2,500. That's a lot of cans of paint. And a lot of people will pay a lot more than £2,500 too if they have large families or big houses or both.   

[1of4]

5 hours ago, Miggins said:

@PistoldPete. Worry no more about heating costs! I have the solution as read a couple of hours ago.

Obviously we have to turn the heating down and generally watch the pennies, but according to a home improvement /makeover celeb we need to get our paintbrushes out and paint any beige rooms either red, green or dark blue. Perky pictures on these walls, beautiful cosy cushions on the sofas and rugs can make a room feel warmer.

I appreciate that colour can make a room 'seem' warmer, but I doubt a tin of Dulux is going to protect anyone from hypothermia this winter. 

I suggest that anyone who can afford cans of paint, pictures, cushions and rugs is better off putting the heating up a notch or two.

Of cause a tin of Dulux won't protect anyone from hypothermia. You'll need to remove the lid and apply two or three coats, to feel any benefit.

[GboroRam]

48 minutes ago, 1of4 said:

Of cause a tin of Dulux won't protect anyone from hypothermia. You'll need to remove the lid and apply two or three coats, to feel any benefit.

And the other good news is that gloss is flammable.

Make a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. 

[PistoldPete]

22 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I'm not sure I follow that 15% figure anyway. Anything greater than a fraction over 4% would start reducing the debt.

There was an expected £42.7b deficit (no idea how it's changed in recent weeks). Fancy having a go at taking that £42.7b away from something?

• Health - £210.9b
• Pensions - £178.5b
• Welfare - £142b
• Education - £104.9b
• Defence - £60.2b
• Transport - £46.9b
• Protection - £42.5b
• General Government - £33.5b
• Other spending - £152.9b
• Interest - £88b

Assuming all benefits are index linked that's £320 billion of benefits. (pension and welfare). With 10% inflation that will go up by £32 billion next year even if they remove the triple lock for pensions. Pensions won't go down except for people dying , but only about 600k die each year and way more than that reach State Pension Age each year so pensions can only go up even more.  Welfare likely to go up in a recession. Interest is related to the debt and the higher rates of interest, so also likely to go up.

Meanwhile we already pay an average of 30% of GDP in taxes so pretty high taxation already. .  

What a mess.