The Ukraine War

[Ramarena]

Russia is struggling to work out where it’s new annexed borders are, as rapid Ukrainian counter offensives have taken quite a bit of land in the East and Kherson directions.

Bad news is Putin’s, no retreat order which if broken bring a long prison sentence for Russian soldiers, has needlessly cost large numbers of Russian lives.

[Crewton]

2 hours ago, Ramarena said:

Russia is struggling to work out where it’s new annexed borders are, as rapid Ukrainian counter offensives have taken quite a bit of land in the East and Kherson directions.

Bad news is Putin’s, no retreat order which if broken bring a long prison sentence for Russian soldiers, has needlessly cost large numbers of Russian lives.

He forgot to appoint Commissars to shoot them if they retreated. Stalin must be spinning in his grave.

[Ramarena]

2 hours ago, Crewton said:

He forgot to appoint Commissars to shoot them if they retreated. Stalin must be spinning in his grave.

I thought that was Kadyrov’s mens job.

[Ramarena]

Lots of movement in the south now, Ukraine is liberating a good number of settlements and moving closer to Kherson.

The Russian army looks to be in disarray down there and it’s one of their most fortified areas!

[Stive Pesley]

26 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

Lots of movement

...of Putin's nuclear armaments ?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-nuclear-train-a-signal-to-the-west-after-fears-over-how-putin/

[Ramarena]

14 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

...of Putin's nuclear armaments ?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-nuclear-train-a-signal-to-the-west-after-fears-over-how-putin/

The Guardian have just reported on this:

Russia is at risk of losing control of the strategic towns critical to retaining the city of Kherson and eventually Crimea, western officials said, but they warned the fighting along the Dnipro River “will not be an easy rush into constrained territory”.

They warned the situation in the south “could become increasingly messy with potentially a more desperate Russian force with their backs to the river Dnipro”, adding the Russian leadership politically will be unable to sanction a retreat from Kherson.

Asked if Russia was preparing to act on its repeated threat to use tactical nuclear weapons, the official insisted they had seen no indicators or actions by Russia that were out of the norm. They pointed out that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had slapped down the calls from Chechen leaders to use such weapons, saying it was not right to resort to emotions.

Also US intelligence have said they haven’t seen anything unusual in their monitoring of Russian nuclear sites.

I mean it’s possible I suppose, but so many eyes are on Russia right now especially their military sites, they’d struggle to not be seen doing something that needs a lot of prep.

[Highgate]

14 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

...of Putin's nuclear armaments ?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-nuclear-train-a-signal-to-the-west-after-fears-over-how-putin/

Whether he is actually willing to use nukes or not, he certainly wants everyone to believe that he might.  He probably knows that the Americans have been saying that there had been no indication so far that Russia is preparing for a nuclear weapon launch.  So this sort of activity has to be expected if he wants to maintain a credible nuclear threat.  I expect there will be more movements like this if things carry on like they are.

Would he actually use them?  My guess is that he won't (all Russians know what the likely American response will be and how that will escalate) But the risk that he actually might do so, while he and his army are being humiliated on the world stage, is too high for my liking.  Putin  announced during the annexation ceremony that the 4 Ukrainian regions will remain a part of Russia 'forever'.  Within 48 hours he's already looking like a fool.  But he is a humiliated fool with a huge nuclear arsenal and that's a dangerous combination for all of us.  

[Wolfie]

1 hour ago, Highgate said:

Whether he is actually willing to use nukes or not, he certainly wants everyone to believe that he might.  He probably knows that the Americans have been saying that there had been no indication so far that Russia is preparing for a nuclear weapon launch.  So this sort of activity has to be expected if he wants to maintain a credible nuclear threat.  I expect there will be more movements like this if things carry on like they are.

Would he actually use them?  My guess is that he won't (all Russians know what the likely American response will be and how that will escalate) But the risk that he actually might do so, while he and his army are being humiliated on the world stage, is too high for my liking.  Putin  announced during the annexation ceremony that the 4 Ukrainian regions will remain a part of Russia 'forever'.  Within 48 hours he's already looking like a fool.  But he is a humiliated fool with a huge nuclear arsenal and that's a dangerous combination for all of us.  

I agree with all that but also I think even a limited low yield tactical nuke would mean Putin losing the only important allies he has left - India and especially China. He can't risk that, IMO.

I saw yesterday, the Russians are now saying they are going to consult with people in the annexed territories as to where the new borders should be. Looks very much like backtracking already on it, what with Ukraine gradually pushing them back in the south and east.

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, Ramarena said:

Also US intelligence have said they haven’t seen anything unusual in their monitoring of Russian nuclear sites.

I mean it’s possible I suppose, but so many eyes are on Russia right now especially their military sites, they’d struggle to not be seen doing something that needs a lot of prep

Also this

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-nuclear-submarine-armed-apos-172414665.html

 

[Ramarena]

43 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Also this

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-nuclear-submarine-armed-apos-172414665.html

 

That article says the weapon likely won’t be ready for operation till 2027.

[Stive Pesley]

15 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

That article says the weapon likely won’t be ready for operation till 2027.

Yes - I just meant it was more aggressive posturing going on

[Ramarena]

5 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Yes - I just meant it was more aggressive posturing going on

Oh absolutely, posturing is all he has left really. I suppose he could go nuclear, but the ramifications would be way bigger than defeat in Ukraine.

[Alph]

I wonder how much longer it will be tolerated in Russia. 

This war has cost them so much and they've achieved so little. 

[AndyinLiverpool]

3 hours ago, Highgate said:

Whether he is actually willing to use nukes or not, he certainly wants everyone to believe that he might.  He probably knows that the Americans have been saying that there had been no indication so far that Russia is preparing for a nuclear weapon launch.  So this sort of activity has to be expected if he wants to maintain a credible nuclear threat.  I expect there will be more movements like this if things carry on like they are.

Would he actually use them?  My guess is that he won't (all Russians know what the likely American response will be and how that will escalate) But the risk that he actually might do so, while he and his army are being humiliated on the world stage, is too high for my liking.  Putin  announced during the annexation ceremony that the 4 Ukrainian regions will remain a part of Russia 'forever'.  Within 48 hours he's already looking like a fool.  But he is a humiliated fool with a huge nuclear arsenal and that's a dangerous combination for all of us.  

If only Putin would just admit that he's gay. The world would be so much better.

[Ramarena]

1 hour ago, Alpha said:

I wonder how much longer it will be tolerated in Russia. 

This war has cost them so much and they've achieved so little. 

Yep. They’re lucky Ukraine have been so smart with their offensives as well.

Ukraines battle plan seems to often revolve around trying to encircling towns and cities by hitting weaker areas and then moving forwards, eventually leaving a small escape corridor and pressuring Russians into a retreat, instead of hitting them head on.

This is primarily to preserve as many  Ukrainian soldiers lives as possible through reduced contact, but it’s also spared a good number of Russian lives too by allowing them to escape through the remaining corridor. 

That’s not to say there’s sadly not been a lot of casualties on both sides, But it could have been much worse if the Ukrainians had approached it in a similar way to the Russians.

[Crewton]

Interesting article in the Guardian regarding changing attitudes in Eastern Ukraine since 2014.

[Eddie]

On 04/10/2022 at 19:38, Ramarena said:

This is primarily to preserve as many Ukrainian soldiers lives as possible through reduced contact, but it’s also spared a good number of Russian lives too by allowing them to escape through the remaining corridor. 

That's a very clever strategy, because ill-equipped, humiliated and ultimately defeated soldiers will tell it how it is when they get back home, and not necessarily follow the madman's rhetoric.

[Boycie]

Well the bridge to Crimea from Russia has just been “damaged”

Its going to kick off now. 

[Bob The Badger]

You've gotta love the Ukrainian's official government Twitter account is trolling the Russians after the bridge attack!

 

 

[Ram-Alf]

16 minutes ago, Bob The Badger said:

You've gotta love the Ukrainian's official government Twitter account is trolling the Russians after the bridge attack!

 

 

Official Russian report said a lorry exploded and oil tankers beside caught fire...I see a lorry but no oil tankers