The Ukraine War

[Eddie]

7 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Liz Truss is a toxic combination of hyper ambition, high output and wide-ranging incompetence..... 

Those are her strong points.

[Archied]

How long before we find out that it’s nothing to do with human suffering and freedom and there’s some vast deposits  of mineral like lithium or some such thing in the regions being fought over 

Edited August 28, 2022 by Archied

[sage]

I can see support for Ukraine cooling slightly over the next few months. Countries will not be able to cope with high gas prices year upon year. 

They will come under pressure to accept a compromise with Russia over the Don as and Crimea. 

It will all be coded as western politicians don't want to be seen as the first one to break cover on this, it will come. 

 

[Van der MoodHoover]

On 28/08/2022 at 00:53, Eddie said:

Those are her strong points.

I thought that usually a truss was used to prevent a load of old b***ocks from spilling out............

 

.....with this one however......?

[Archied]

6 hours ago, sage said:

I can see support for Ukraine cooling slightly over the next few months. Countries will not be able to cope with high gas prices year upon year. 

They will come under pressure to accept a compromise with Russia over the Don as and Crimea. 

It will all be coded as western politicians don't want to be seen as the first one to break cover on this, it will come. 

 

What’s the alternative?

1, fully engage in all out war with Russia 

2 , fund and prolong the war and killing indefinitely 

[Ram-Alf]

12 minutes ago, Archied said:

What’s the alternative?

1, fully engage in all out war with Russia 

2 , fund and prolong the war and killing indefinitely 

2 reports saying the fightback is on in Kherson 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-offensive-operation-under-way-in-russian-held-kherson-as-strikes-on-ammunition-dumps-weaken-enemy-12684715

[Mick Brolly]

2 hours ago, Archied said:

What’s the alternative?

1, fully engage in all out war with Russia 

2 , fund and prolong the war and killing indefinitely 

The mad man dies 

[Archied]

3 minutes ago, Mick Brolly said:

The mad man dies 

You honestly believe putin dies and all is hunky dory? If it were that simple and clear cut he would be dead already 

[Mick Brolly]

47 minutes ago, Archied said:

You honestly believe putin dies and all is hunky dory? If it were that simple and clear cut he would be dead already 

I think there would be a better chance than him being alive 

[Highgate]

17 hours ago, Archied said:

What’s the alternative?

1, fully engage in all out war with Russia 

2 , fund and prolong the war and killing indefinitely 

I think the best thing the West can do is fully support the Ukrainian government and people in their defensive war against Russia for as long as they wish to keep on fighting it. Western countries commitment to Ukraine is going to be severely tested this winter especially in those European countries that are heavily dependent on Russia oil and gas. 

So I guess that's option 2 on your list for me, provided that the decision to prolong the war is coming from the Ukrainians.  If the West stops supporting Ukraine then they would in time be forced to surrender to Russia on Russia's terms.  That's not something that most Ukrainians want to contemplate as far as I know. 

I do worry that there are elements in Washington whose priorities are to take this opportunity to hurt Russia as much as possible rather than to look for any way to deescalate the conflict if that were to present itself.  However given what Putin has said about Ukraine, and given the Ukrainians determination to defend their homeland, I can't imagine what potential settlement would satisfy both sides at the moment.  

As for whether the end of Putin would mean the end of the war.  That all depends on who replaces him. There are plenty among the political elite who probably thought this war a terrible idea, but obviously can't say so openly.  Just remember, immediately before Russia's invastion, the public humiliation of head of intelligence Sergei Naryskhin for having the temerity to suggest that war could still be averted.  If one of these were to succeed Putin then things might improve considerably.  On the other hand there are potential successors such at Patrushev or Kadyrov (surely this is too far-fetched) that would be as bad as Putin and probably even worse.  

[BaaLocks]

3 minutes ago, Highgate said:

As for whether the end of Putin would mean the end of the war.  That all depends on who replaces him.

Most certainly not, and if you think Putin is as bad as it can get you might want to have a look at some of those vying to be his successor. Removing Putin is only likely to foment the situation further. What might happen, if Putin's declining health is as true as being reported, is that he will bring in a puppet replacement (as he did with Medvedev before he changed the constitution) like Mikhail Mishustin. Sergei Shoigu is the one to be concerned about - very old school and heavy handed - or Medinsky, who makes Putin seem like an ultra liberal.

And for those who might say it would give opportunity for Ukraine to use the leadership gap to win the conflict and re-establish it's borders then maybe yes, till the next aspiring leader sees it as a chance to build political capital. This has been an open wound since at least 1991 (let's not get back into Soviet internal politics) and it is not going to heal just because Putin is no longer there. Sadly!

[Highgate]

7 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Most certainly not, and if you think Putin is as bad as it can get you might want to have a look at some of those vying to be his successor. Removing Putin is only likely to foment the situation further. What might happen, if Putin's declining health is as true as being reported, is that he will bring in a puppet replacement (as he did with Medvedev before he changed the constitution) like Mikhail Mishustin. Sergei Shoigu is the one to be concerned about - very old school and heavy handed - or Medinsky, who makes Putin seem like an ultra liberal.

And for those who might say it would give opportunity for Ukraine to use the leadership gap to win the conflict and re-establish it's borders then maybe yes, till the next aspiring leader sees it as a chance to build political capital. This has been an open wound since at least 1991 (let's not get back into Soviet internal politics) and it is not going to heal just because Putin is no longer there. Sadly!

I don't know how you got that impression, I thought I quite clearly said that there are those who would be an improvement on Putin in the event of his death or resignation, and those who would probably be worse.  Patrushev is the fear for me.  Seems to be both a realistic option and a worse case scenario.  I don't necessarily agree with you on Shoigu, I don't think this war would have started in the first place had he been president, although that's just guesswork obviously. 

Obviously, when talking about the Ukraine War it's the sudden death of and replacement of Putin's that's more relevant and not something years in the future.  If it were to be sudden, does Putin have a successor in place?  If not, a power vacuum and an internal struggle in Russia may not be the worse thing in the world for Ukraine.  After the long winter, and with Russian casualties mounting how would the Russian people feel about a new President who supported continuing the war in Ukraine as opposed to one who supported an end to war and a settlement (presumably spun as a glorious and necessary victory).  Of course, not being an actual democracy, public opinion matters much less in Russia, but it's still relevant to some extent. 

[BaaLocks]

43 minutes ago, Highgate said:

I don't know how you got that impression

I didn't - it wasn't a personal comment as such, more a general observation. Sorry if it felt that way....

[Ram-Alf]

If Russia go on to win and take Ukraine, This will give succah to China to take Taiwan, There are still unresolved border conflicts in the Balkans.

I've no answer, I've read where some Ukrainians would prefer death than living under Putin, The only resolution imo is down to those most effected...the Ukrainians and their leaders.

This Winter is going to be the Winter of all Winters where Europe and Ukraine is concerned ☹️

[BaaLocks]

1 hour ago, Unlucky Alf said:

If Russia go on to win and take Ukraine, This will give succah to China to take Taiwan, There are still unresolved border conflicts in the Balkans.

I've no answer, I've read where some Ukrainians would prefer death than living under Putin, The only resolution imo is down to those most effected...the Ukrainians and their leaders.

This Winter is going to be the Winter of all Winters where Europe and Ukraine is concerned ☹️

And, whether the West like it or not, there are a lot of Ukranians in Crimea, Donbas etc. that are Russian passport holders and want to be reunited with Russia. I agree with you, I have no answer, the future does not look good and the long term is pretty much unresolvable.

One solution, that many don't seem to consider an option, is that Crimea is given independence and from there can decide where it resides - after all in 1991 (just months before the break up of the USSR) more than 94% of Crimean population voted to be an autonomous republic. And while we can agree that the results of the 2014 referendum are unreliable (due to some estimates suggesting more than 120% of the population voted) parallel surveys carried out by the likes of Gallup also suggested that in excess of 70% of Crimeans concluded that being part of Russia was preferable at that time.

Which means that all I say is that this eternal suggestion that every single Ukranian is crying out to be saved from the Russian invasion is simply not true but it fits our narrative of who is right and who is wrong much more simply.

[Ram-Alf]

9 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

And, whether the West like it or not, there are a lot of Ukranians in Crimea, Donbas etc. that are Russian passport holders and want to be reunited with Russia. I agree with you, I have no answer, the future does not look good and the long term is pretty much unresolvable.

One solution, that many don't seem to consider an option, is that Crimea is given independence and from there can decide where it resides - after all in 1991 (just months before the break up of the USSR) more than 94% of Crimean population voted to be an autonomous republic. And while we can agree that the results of the 2014 referendum are unreliable (due to some estimates suggesting more than 120% of the population voted) parallel surveys carried out by the likes of Gallup also suggested that in excess of 70% of Crimeans concluded that being part of Russia was preferable at that time.

Which means that all I say is that this eternal suggestion that every single Ukranian is crying out to be saved from the Russian invasion is simply not true but it fits our narrative of who is right and who is wrong much more simply.

1st, There are Ukrainians who would want to be part of Russia and I'll take your word for it as you're more informed than myself where Russia is concerned, And you may add to this, Didn't Ukraine switch the electric off and all the fresh water to those in the Crimea, Hence Russia holding the Nuclear plant to ransom.

 

 

[Highgate]

3 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

And, whether the West like it or not, there are a lot of Ukranians in Crimea, Donbas etc. that are Russian passport holders and want to be reunited with Russia. I agree with you, I have no answer, the future does not look good and the long term is pretty much unresolvable.

One solution, that many don't seem to consider an option, is that Crimea is given independence and from there can decide where it resides - after all in 1991 (just months before the break up of the USSR) more than 94% of Crimean population voted to be an autonomous republic. And while we can agree that the results of the 2014 referendum are unreliable (due to some estimates suggesting more than 120% of the population voted) parallel surveys carried out by the likes of Gallup also suggested that in excess of 70% of Crimeans concluded that being part of Russia was preferable at that time.

Which means that all I say is that this eternal suggestion that every single Ukranian is crying out to be saved from the Russian invasion is simply not true but it fits our narrative of who is right and who is wrong much more simply.

Outside Crimea and Donbas is there any significant support for Russia?  Zelensky's approval ratings seems to be over 90% in the rest of Ukraine, so that doesn't seem to leave much room for many Ukrainians supporting the Russian invasion.  

Crimea is obviously a strange case as it is historically Russian, given to Ukraine as a gift by Khrushchev in the 50s. After the annexation in 2014 it seemed it was destined to remain under Russian control, whether the West or Ukraine acknowledged it or not.  Ironically the 2022 invasion of Ukraine  has now threatened Crimea's Russian status, with many Ukrainians now fully determined to win back Crimea too. 

War has been simmering in the Donbas since 2014, which it has to be said is probably as much Ukraine's fault as Russia's.  Plenty of blame to go around. There is has been significant movement of Russian people into the area of the last century so it seems natural that there is support for Russia there too, and clearly they weren't happy with the Maidan Revolution in 2014  

However when it comes to the Russia Invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there is no problem in deciding who is wrong and who is right.  Russia and Putin are wrong and the Ukrainian defenders are right.  That's not simply a Western 'narrative', that's a straight-forward interpretation of the Nuremburg Principles.  Invasion is the ultimate war crime, and people have the right to defend their country from invading armies..by lethal force if necessary.  

[BaaLocks]

14 hours ago, Unlucky Alf said:

1st, There are Ukrainians who would want to be part of Russia and I'll take your word for it as you're more informed than myself where Russia is concerned, And you may add to this, Didn't Ukraine switch the electric off and all the fresh water to those in the Crimea, Hence Russia holding the Nuclear plant to ransom.

 

 

Yes to the first half, also remember that no Russian male between 18-60 has been allowed into Ukraine since 2013. For the umpteenth time, I am not a Putin apologist by any means but Ukraine has much to answer for as well. 

To restate, many, many Russians have relatives in Ukraine, visa versa and at the human level the countries are totally intertwined - a bit like Scotland and England. For example, we were out walking the other night and bumped into two ladies who were speaking Russian - my wife said hello to them and the first thing they said "oh, it's so nice to meet one of our own". They were from Kyiv.

[Stive Pesley]

On 28/08/2022 at 05:59, Archied said:

How long before we find out that it’s nothing to do with human suffering and freedom and there’s some vast deposits  of mineral like lithium or some such thing in the regions being fought over 

It's always about something else. No one has ever taken a country to war for such an abstract concept as "freedom" or for an abitrary line in the sand know as a "border"

 

[GenBr]

On 28/08/2022 at 05:59, Archied said:

How long before we find out that it’s nothing to do with human suffering and freedom and there’s some vast deposits  of mineral like lithium or some such thing in the regions being fought over 

Ukraine is larger than France and has billions of tonnes of raw materials buried within its borders. Yes it has large deposits of Lithium and most of its coal production was in the east of the country. They also have significant Uranium deposits, as well as hosts of other valuable minerals. The West supporting Ukraine has never had anything to do with freedom and democracy though. The stated aim is the destruction of Russian military power to ensure they can't do something like this again for a long time - not exactly a secret. We also want to use them as an alternative to China for certain materials

On 29/08/2022 at 12:41, sage said:

I can see support for Ukraine cooling slightly over the next few months. Countries will not be able to cope with high gas prices year upon year. 

They will come under pressure to accept a compromise with Russia over the Don as and Crimea. 

It will all be coded as western politicians don't want to be seen as the first one to break cover on this, it will come. 

 

The only support that matters to the Ukraine is the United States and they are energy independent, so won't have any need to negotiate with Russia. European countries aren't going to be able to produce enough weapons to keep the support at the same level either way and Germany can't pretend to be helping forever. The United States is the only nation with the capabilities and the military and economic strength to keep this going for a significant period of time.

On 29/08/2022 at 21:44, Archied said:

You honestly believe putin dies and all is hunky dory? If it were that simple and clear cut he would be dead already 

Putin is one of the most heavily protected people on the face of the earth - killing him isn't that simple. And it isn't his death that would make the situation better - it would be dependent on who ended up replacing him. If its an oligarch they will more than likely attempt to extricate the country form the war. If its another FSB agent probably more of the same, but even then they can't keep bleeding themselves in Ukraine forever.

Edited August 31, 2022 by GenBr