The Ukraine War

[Alph]

I was hoping to go St Petersburg later in the year for our winter city break. 

What to pack? 

[Cisse]

5 minutes ago, Alpha said:

I was hoping to go St Petersburg later in the year for our winter city break. 

What to pack? 

A bazooka. ?

[Alph]

Just now, Cisse said:

A bazooka. ?

Dreading the Mrs moaning that urban camo doesn't go with her shoes

[Cisse]

6 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Dreading the Mrs moaning that urban camo doesn't go with her shoes

Just buy her a pair of matching Loubutinis. 

[Stive Pesley]

10 hours ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

This war is far more than i expected, i honestly thought he'd just annex two more of Ukraine's provinces (and that the west would let him).

Same here. One of my favourite cities on earth is Dubrovnik, and when I watch the 90s news footage of the siege, and see it being shelled, up until now I always thought I'd never see that again in Europe.

10 hours ago, BaaLocks said:

he states he has evidence that the Orange Revolution was funded and supported by the US.

I doubt any of us would be surprised, given what we know of the US history of interfering in foreign countries

But by the same token - now Putin has gone "full tonto", I'm far less inclined to dismiss the reports of Russian interference in the UK elections and referendums. He's now proven that he had very good reason to take whatever measure he could to destabilise European countries

[Stive Pesley]

The Ruble looks to be collapsing this morning - this is bad news for the Russian people

I'm not sure I like the idea of Putin being cornered like this. I don't see him being the 'surrender' type

 

[BaaLocks]

5 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

The Ruble looks to be collapsing this morning - this is bad news for the Russian people

I'm not sure I like the idea of Putin being cornered like this. I don't see him being the 'surrender' type

 

As someone pointed out this is a perfect side effect for America. Many will move their Rouble investments to hard currency (USD is the obvious and historic candidate) and that benefits the dollar. Not intentional but some side impact of it all.

Regarding Russia being cornered, I will leave the quote to my in laws, one of whom just said, "this is nothing compared to the 1990s". Sadly, there is always a recent chapter of Russian history that is more bleak than the one they are being asked to live through.

[RadioactiveWaste]

Just something about the use of the phrase "denazification" being used.

Whilst it's not believed in Ukraine or on the western side, it's being said because it's something that does resonate in Russia - particularly as part of the mythology of the great patriotic war that certain groups in Ukraine ( and other parts of the USSR) sided with the Nazis when they invaded (and that justified reprisals after the war and also, how bad did your regime have to be that the invading Nazis were less bad?).

Whilst it's the case that far right groups are a thing in many of the former Soviet republics, it's not the case that they were the current Ukraine government or anywhere near any actual power.

[BaaLocks]

15 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Same here. One of my favourite cities on earth is Dubrovnik, and when I watch the 90s news footage of the siege, and see it being shelled, up until now I always thought I'd never see that again in Europe.

I doubt any of us would be surprised, given what we know of the US history of interfering in foreign countries

But by the same token - now Putin has gone "full tonto", I'm far less inclined to dismiss the reports of Russian interference in the UK elections and referendums. He's now proven that he had very good reason to take whatever measure he could to destabilise European countries

I have no doubt that Russia interfered in the election of Trump and Brexit, it is a tactic of modern 'warfare' on all sides. I guess my point was that it is on all sides. Indeed, while we are not the power we once were in all this you'd have to say that Johnson and his crew are mortally comprimised in all of this wrt the Russia report, party funding and other elements.

One of the clear benefits of having leaders in power for a very long time (Russia, China) is that they are able to execute long term plans - I'm not saying Russia intended to invade Ukraine in 2015 but Brexit was a more destabilising impact on the British economy (even the most fervent Brexiteers can see this) than almost any armed conflict would do. Strangely, if Trump was in power now we probably wouldn't have got to this as he had a relation with Putin that could have at least have allowed for discussion.

[GenBr]

15 hours ago, Highgate said:

I think you are committing the inevitability of history fallacy. Thinking that after something has happened, it could only have happened like it did. Putin had plenty of options available and he could certainly have chosen not to have invaded Ukraine. Indeed, if Russia had another leader in charge nothing like this would have occurred.....probably.

Many people will agree with you, myself included, that the relentless expansion of Nato towards Russian borders has always been an understandable concern for Russians and made them feel that the West was still on an adversarial footing even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, this point notwithstanding, this indefensible choice by Putin was as avoidable as it was deplorable. The consequences for Russia could turn out to be as dire as those for Ukraine.

I strongly disagree. If you want to list all of these alternative options that were open to Moscow please feel free.

Ukraine joining NATO or even the EU is too great a threat to Russia for them to allow it to happen. Sorry if you feel differently, but thats how the Russian state see's it. NATO would quite rightly not allow Russia to dictate who can or cant join NATO, so the only option left to Moscow is a direct military intervention. No other way round it.

I agree from an outside perspective that an invasion of a democratic country is indefensible and i also agree that this is going to have dire consequences for Russia, but i dont agree that this was avoidable.

16 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

What threats though? Whe has ever threatened to attack Russia since the cold war ended?

If they didn't have a power-crazed dictator as a leader, then no western country would even need to consider defensive strategies against Russia, let alone offensive ones

You dont have to directly threaten a country to be seen as an agressor. Russia wasnt the country building bases in countries surrounding the United States and they weren't the country that was stationing foreign weapons and troops all along the US borders.

And lets not pretend that any of the actions of NATO or the west has anything to do with Putin. This has been ongoing since the end of the cold war. NATO still pushed right up to the Russian borders even in the early days of the nascent Russian democracy. Russia would have to be absolutely insane to let Ukraine join NATO - it would be like having a knife inches away from your heart.

14 hours ago, TigerTedd said:

Why do they have to be hostile forces though? He could be within spitting distance of friendly forces if he just made friends with everyone and wasn’t such a shifty rick with his finger on the button. 

the only reason people take a defensive stance against him, is because he’s so blatantly aggressive. NATO would be stupid not to keep their eye on him. But they don’t give a poo about Costa Rica. He should be like Costa Rica. 

Odd that you pick Costa Rica and not Cuba who have been blockaded for decades since the missile crisis for no reason other than "we dont like their government".

And what is the reason for his aggresive stance i wonder? It cant possibly have anything to do with western actions over the past 30 years. Nothing happens in a bubble. Its not difficult to see why they wont "make friends" with their neighbours when they allow Russias enemy of the past 80 years to station troops and missiles across the length of their border.

[RadioactiveWaste]

2 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

As someone pointed out this is a perfect side effect for America. Many will move their Rouble investments to hard currency (USD is the obvious and historic candidate) and that benefits the dollar. Not intentional but some side impact of it all.

Regarding Russia being cornered, I will leave the quote to my in laws, one of whom just said, "this is nothing compared to the 1990s". Sadly, there is always a recent chapter of Russian history that is more bleak than the one they are being asked to live through.

As an aside, I do believe the root cause of a lot of what became of Russia and former Soviet republics lies in how the end of communist rule was handled by the international community and the succession governments.

Ordinary people suffered under communism continued to suffer and riches and power went to those who had the will and the means to take it by any means they could.

[BaaLocks]

5 minutes ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

Just something about the use of the phrase "denazification" being used.

Whilst it's not believed in Ukraine or on the western side, it's being said because it's something that does resonate in Russia - particularly as part of the mythology of the great patriotic war that certain groups in Ukraine ( and other parts of the USSR) sided with the Nazis when they invaded (and that justified reprisals after the war and also, how bad did your regime have to be that the invading Nazis were less bad?).

Whilst it's the case that far right groups are a thing in many of the former Soviet republics, it's not the case that they were the current Ukraine government or anywhere near any actual power.

Agree with all of that, and I don't think Zelensky is a puppet for right wing extremists like Idar and the Azov Batalion. But, chillingly, there is video footage of Zelensky back when he was a stand up comedian (yes, Ukraine is led by their version of Jimmy Carr) saying that if he ever was going to run for President he would look to Ihor Kolomoyski (just the person you reference to above) for investment. Frankly, it's a bloomin' mess on all sides.

[Stive Pesley]

7 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

Brexit was a more destabilising impact on the British economy (even the most fervent Brexiteers can see this) than almost any armed conflict would do

In some ways it was win-win for Putin once we voted Brexit - it would either destabilise our economy and weaken a major European country, or it would go OK and therefore encourage the people of other EU countries to consider the same path, thereby beginning the collapse of the EU

 

[cstand]

34 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

In some ways it was win-win for Putin once we voted Brexit - it would either destabilise our economy and weaken a major European country, or it would go OK and therefore encourage the people of other EU countries to consider the same path, thereby beginning the collapse of the EU

 

Brexit has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine it’s all about the ever expanding empire of the EU eastwards leading to these countries joining NATO next to the Russian border. 

In 2014 the EU parliament was warned to stop expanding eastwards but chose to ignore this advice and now Russia has invaded the Ukraine.

 

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-is-one-of-us-and-we-want-them-in-eu-ursula-von-der-leyen-tells-euronews

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by cstand

[sage]

1 minute ago, cstand said:

Brexit has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine it’s all about the ever expanding empire of the EU eastwards leading to these countries joining NATO next to the Russian border. 

In 2014 the EU parliament was warned to stop expanding eastwards but chose to ignore this advice and now Russia has invaded the Ukraine.

 

 

 

Did Russia influence Brexit?

Is it to their advantage?

[BaaLocks]

43 minutes ago, BaaLocks said:

I have no doubt that Russia interfered in the election of Trump and Brexit, it is a tactic of modern 'warfare' on all sides. I guess my point was that it is on all sides. Indeed, while we are not the power we once were in all this you'd have to say that Johnson and his crew are mortally comprimised in all of this wrt the Russia report, party funding and other elements.

Just to add to this, the point on opening up borders for immigration from Ukraine now is an interesting one. MPs now calling for free entry to the UK for anyone affected by the conflict (something I would agree with btw, at least relaxed). But anyone remember the poster from Farage in 2015 suggesting we would be flooded by Syrian migrants if we remained in the EU? Sadly, and disagreeably, if we are to be consistent we would limit the amount of people left to enter significantly. To support that, the UK rejected immigration applications from an estimated half a million Jews fleeing Nazi Germany etc. in the 1930 so, sadly as others have said, we've been here before.

[cstand]

1 minute ago, sage said:

Did Russia influence Brexit?

Is it to their advantage?

The reason for war in the Ukraine is the expanding empire of the EU eastward to the Russian border. 

Putin will love these comments from Ursula it will give him every justification to escalate the conflict.
 

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-is-one-of-us-and-we-want-them-in-eu-ursula-von-der-leyen-tells-euronews

 

[Alph]

Liz Truss has done nothing to calm the situation since the very beginning has she?

All I hear from her is threats. 

[cstand]

4 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Liz Truss has done nothing to calm the situation since the very beginning has she?

All I hear from her is threats. 

The EU expanding its empire eastwards is to blame for this conflict it has given Putin every excuse to invade the Ukraine stop trying to blame Boris, Truss, or Brexit.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-is-one-of-us-and-we-want-them-in-eu-ursula-von-der-leyen-tells-euronews

Edited February 28, 2022 by cstand

[RadioactiveWaste]

One of the ways this has hugely backfired for Putin is the way it has United "the west".

Had he just annexed the two breakaway provinces, there'd have been grumbling in the EU and elsewhere, calls for sanctions, nothing really happening and he'd have continued his subtle destabilisation agenda.

Going big, he's had a reaction of solidity not crumbling.

The current war is not only a mistake by Putin, it's also forcing Europe to consider what it actually believes - independent democracies should be defended from aggression, or an acceptance that parts of the world exist as buffer states or puppets in a larger power's sphere of influence.

Both are world views that i can understand, but picking and choosing is a bit hypocritical.

There's also, what do the people of Ukraine want? It seems they have rejected the Russian sphere several times. Should they be forced to accept it under the barrel of a gun because of Putin's paranoia about democracy, liberalism and threats to his power. (And the nuance between threats to Putin's regime, and threats to Russia).

I do find all of this very sad, because I do regard Russia as one of the world's great nations and an endlessly fascinating country. But it's leadership have forced confrontation and it's a confrontation I have zero doubts about I'm afraid.