teddyb16 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Hull situation could help us too. New owners bringing in an unknown manager (sounds like his Turkish mate) Could backfire? Rammy03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sheffieldram Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If we lose Lawrence then our ability to put the ball in the net the net will decrease considerably. We are already the fourth lowest scorers in the Championship. Who will replace him with a transfer embargo still on us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerTedd Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, sheffieldram said: If we lose Lawrence then our ability to put the ball in the net the net will decrease considerably. We are already the fourth lowest scorers in the Championship. Who will replace him with a transfer embargo still on us? Cometh the hour, cometh the Plange. RodleyRam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, TigerTedd said: Cometh the hour, cometh the Plange. Not a chance will he be able to replace Lawrence's goals and assists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ollycutts1982 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Looks like Andy Carroll is going to West Brom so that will weaken Reading. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just updating all the stats today, firstly the handicap graphic where our 21 point penalty is spread evenly over the 46 games. As you can see, that would currently have us on 25 points so well in this relegation battle - key for me is how much better our form is in reality when compared to those teams in the bottom half. Also its now just 16 games to go, so light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 Amazing to me that 4th bottom after 27 games is now tracking 6 points behind last season. i thought 44 points would not be enough (mainly based on ours and sheff weds terrible end of season form) but that current 6 point buffer is more than handy. If Peterboro fail to win tonight then 4th bottom will remain at 22 points after 28 games and will be 7 points behind last season. If that gap remained for the season then a ridiculous 37 points would see us safe. Like i've said before, I fully expect this gap to close down due to last years late season form, but the way it is right now is perfect for DCFC. r_wilcockson and loweman2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 In this table ive tried to give us a bit of a buffer, i've kept the safety points number at 62 (net 41). As you can see we are only 2 points away from that based on our current position. If we were to drop that points needed down to 59 (net 38) which is the current reality, then clearly we are already ahead of the game and will survive. loweman2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The amortised table: Yani P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 February Middlesbrough (A) Peterborough (H) Millwall (H) Luton (A) March Cardiff (A) Barnsley (H) Bournemouth (A) Blackburn (A) Coventry (H) April Preston (H) Swansea (A) Fulham (H) QPR (A) Bristol C (H) Blackpool (A) May Cardiff (H) If we won our 7 home games but lost at home to Fulham that would currently be enough for safety. You would hope that there are a few points for us in those away games, so a positive position I think. TigerTedd and r_wilcockson 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinhectoring Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, Yani P said: Amazing to me that 4th bottom after 27 games is now tracking 6 points behind last season. i thought 44 points would not be enough (mainly based on ours and sheff weds terrible end of season form) but that current 6 point buffer is more than handy. If Peterboro fail to win tonight then 4th bottom will remain at 22 points after 28 games and will be 7 points behind last season. If that gap remained for the season then a ridiculous 37 points would see us safe. Like i've said before, I fully expect this gap to close down due to last years late season form, but the way it is right now is perfect for DCFC. But the disappointing thing is the gap that has opened up above Reading. Means that things are tough for us if they turn things around after their Jan window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, kevinhectoring said: But the disappointing thing is the gap that has opened up above Reading. Means that things are tough for us if they turn things around after their Jan window That is my only worry, but just based on stats and trends we are still in a good place..there is always the chance that a team higher up could do a Derby or Sheff Weds... kevinhectoring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BondJovi Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, kevinhectoring said: But the disappointing thing is the gap that has opened up above Reading. Means that things are tough for us if they turn things around after their Jan window There still could be a team to have a collapse. kevinhectoring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 This graphic acts as a mirror to last season - we achieved 44 points so the logic was if we get to 44 we are in the mix - as it stands the safety line (based on 4th bottom at 27 games) is currently 38 points. I'm sure it will rise as discussed above, but if we still track for 44 I reckon we will be safe with breathing space. We have one game left in the 3rd sector - this was by a mile our best last season so my expectation was to be as close as possible without it being very likely that we could match or beat it. After the Boro game we are into Sector 4 where we we will have 15 games left to beat the 7 points we gained last season (plus whatever the deficit is from sectors 1-3).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ram59 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Technically speaking, after tonight's result, I believe that we're out of the bottom 3 on a points per game basis for the first time this season. TigerTedd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 (edited) A lot of my analysis for this seasons relegation survival fight used last season as the benchmark. Why? because we were the 4th bottom team on 44 points so again tracking that as our target for this season made sense. After tonight's matches the 4th bottom team (currently Reading) are a massive 7 points off that target 44 points score based on last season. What does that mean for us? Well all of my tracking was trying to achieve 44, but always hoping the baseline would fall lower to make our task easier. Right now the safety zone could be anywhere from 37-44 points, but tracking at the bottom end of that target. nothing but positive news for us.. Edited February 9, 2022 by Yani P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 (edited) .. Edited February 20, 2022 by Yani P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angieram Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Yani P said: Last 15 minutes is where its at ? I said yesterday we should re-name Fergie time to Rooney time! Yani P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yani P Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 as you can see - spreading the points deduction over the entire season game by game we are on 27 points right now. Ramrob 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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