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18 Games left, How many points will we get.


Ram-Alf

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2 hours ago, Rampage said:

18 games to yield 33 points at least. So minimum of 64 points.

Rooney will find a way round the loss of Bielik in the shape of Bird/Beni. We have got Paterson who will be playing every week plus Gregory and the other unknown loan quantities. I think that we can give every team a good challenge. Home advantage is only a small factor, so bring it on. If we score first then we are very difficult to beat. Looks like the plan is to score early and then control the game at our place and hit them on the break. We will see.

You WHAT!?!?!?! 

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11 hours ago, James Pond said:

1. Wycombe away...3pts

2. Watford away...1pt

3. Huddersfield home...3pts

4. Forest home...1pt

5. Cardiff away...0pts

6. Coventry away...1pt

 7. Barnsley away...0pts

 8. Millwall Home...1pt

 9. Brentford home...0pts

 10. Stoke away...1pt

 11. Luton home...3pts

 12. Reading away...1pt

 13. Norwich home...1pt

 14. Blackburn away...1pt

 15. Preston away...3pts

 16. Birmingham home...3pts

 17. Swansea away...0pts

 18. Wednesday home...3pts

26 points...Total 57 points.

I can only see one win, and few points, from that Brentford through to Preston run so, I hope we have enough to be comfortable by then and not leave ourselves too much to do in the final three games. But, then again, who would have predicted all of our last four wins and the defeat? 
 

I usually do a prediction table in a spreadsheet (in previous seasons it’s been to see if I think we’ll reach the play offs) but I’m not going to try this year.

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38 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I can only see one win, and few points, from that Brentford through to Preston run so, I hope we have enough to be comfortable by then and not leave ourselves too much to do in the final three games. But, then again, who would have predicted all of our last four wins and the defeat? 
 

I usually do a prediction table in a spreadsheet (in previous seasons it’s been to see if I think we’ll reach the play offs) but I’m not going to try this year.

Tough run indeed. My guess is:

9. Brentford home...0pts

 10. Stoke away...3 pt

 11. Luton home...1 pts

 12. Reading away...0 pt

 13. Norwich home...0 pt

 14. Blackburn away...0 pt

 15. Preston away...0 pts

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10 hours ago, plymouthram said:

I reckon we will lose very few games and get a lot of good draws finishing up with 62pts at the end of the season.

I agree. For 15+ games now we've almost never been outplayed and teams struggle to score against us. What happened with Rotherham, happens to every club in this league. 

I can see us winning 9 out of our final 18 games and also picking up 3 draws. 

I struggle to look at those fixtures and say we'll lose 6 of them. 

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34 minutes ago, DCFC1388 said:

You think we will be 18pts clear of relegation with 6 games left?

Bit optimistic but Wycombe and Brum are in death spirals so if one of Sheff, Coventry, Rotherham have a similar bad patch we could be safe early doors!

Over last 5 league games only Brentford and Swansea have gained more points than us.

This is very optimistic on my part-possibly a side effect of my jab. Now there's another conspiracy theory for the other thread.

?? 

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Taking a simplistic view, our season so falls into 3 distinct passages, Cocu, Committee, Rooney.

If we say that passages 1 & 2 comprised 13 games (wild guess), that leaves 15 under Rooney.

Last 15 games have yielded 25 points, i.e. 5 points per 3 games. We have 18 games left

18/3 =6. 6x5 = 30. 31+30 =61 points. Simples

 

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A few fun stats:

Win rate this season: 28.6% Win rate under Rooney: 50%

Points per game this season: 1.107  Points per game under Rooney: 1.714 (2 points per game is probable second place form)

End of season points forecast based on points per game under Rooney: 58.9. Last season this would have secured 13th place in the league.

To achieve 50 points (Probable safety): 1.056 points per game required, in the remaining 18 games.

Max points available: 85

So the improvement to date is obvious ?

 

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4 hours ago, FindernRam said:

Bit optimistic but Wycombe and Brum are in death spirals so if one of Sheff, Coventry, Rotherham have a similar bad patch we could be safe early doors!

Over last 5 league games only Brentford and Swansea have gained more points than us.

This is very optimistic on my part-possibly a side effect of my jab. Now there's another conspiracy theory for the other thread.

?? 

Did they mix up your flu jab with ketamine

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Another question is how many points will we need to stay up (assuming no points deductions of course)?

Glancing over the table for the last 20 or so seasons, the majority of teams who got relegated in 22nd postion got low to mid 40s.

4 or 5 were 50 or above. in 2012-13 Peterborough went down with 54 points, followed by Wolves (51) and Bristol City (41). There were no deductions.

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I think we’ll get 29 points from those games which would give us 60 in total, enough to finish between 12th and 14th. I’m an optimist though so will probably end up being more like 55 or 56. I think we’ll go into the Brum game at home as the first of 3 chances to mathematically secure safety. 

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