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Where will we finish?


Jimbo Ram

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3 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

Agreed I made the point though to another poster that I didn't think that was sustainable unless we get serious reinforcements in.

I would say we have been unfortunate not to pick up more points over the last 6 games so I feel  a bit more optimistic than yourself. Key injuries beyond Waghorn and Lawrence could have a negative effect so for me it's likely we will get to at least 49 points but not certain. 

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Totally down to money.

If, as expected, we get taken over this week and they show the colour of their money and bring in Jones and a decent front man then we’ll stay up comfortably.

If it falls through you can see Mel selling Beilik or Knight in the window to fund a striker. Then I think things will be in the balance.

Goalscoring in the glaring obvious problem that has blighted our season and must be addressed immediately. How that’s is achieved remains to be seen. 

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25 minutes ago, 24Charlie said:

Totally down to money.

If, as expected, we get taken over this week and they show the colour of their money and bring in Jones and a decent front man then we’ll stay up comfortably.

If it falls through you can see Mel selling Beilik or Knight in the window to fund a striker. Then I think things will be in the balance.

Goalscoring in the glaring obvious problem that has blighted our season and must be addressed immediately. How that’s is achieved remains to be seen. 

I don’t get this enthusiasm for Jones personally.

A striker is definitely a priority but what worries me is we’ve wasted big money before on players that haven’t worked out and January is a difficult/expensive time to buy. 

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Salient factors- 

1. Takeover 

2. Injuries 

3. Signings 

4. Covid 

I am assuming Rooney stays as mansger. Unpredictable because of these four factors but I reckon 54 points so maybe 16th if none of these factors make a massive difference. If Wayne gets his players and no disasters on the other three factors then 61 points wherever that finishes maybe 12th.

 

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10 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I don’t get this enthusiasm for Jones personally.

A striker is definitely a priority but what worries me is we’ve wasted big money before on players that haven’t worked out and January is a difficult/expensive time to buy. 

We need loans with option to buy in most cases.

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5 minutes ago, Rampage said:

Salient factors- 

1. Takeover 

2. Injuries 

3. Signings 

4. Covid 

I am assuming Rooney stays as mansger. Unpredictable because of these four factors but I reckon 54 points so maybe 16th if none of these factors make a massive difference. If Wayne gets his players and no disasters on the other three factors then 61 points wherever that finishes maybe 12th.

 

You forgot = 5. What other teams do (during transfer window and their form for the rest of the season) If you currently look at QPR, Birmingham and Millwall form, thy could be in the mix with Wycombe, Rotherham, Derby, Forest and Sheff Weds. I personally think Wycombe will finish bottom and Rotherham next to bottom. That leaves one other club for the drop. My money would go on Birmingham. Factors for us, 1. Takeover (it happens) 2. Injuries (we have very few) 3. Signings (we get a goalscorer, and a decent centrehalf) 4. Covid (we don't lose any players to positive test results and the vaccine is rolled out quickly)  I hope these predictions turn out and we should finish 13th (and that won't be unlucky 13).

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19 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

I don’t get this enthusiasm for Jones personally.

A striker is definitely a priority but what worries me is we’ve wasted big money before on players that haven’t worked out and January is a difficult/expensive time to buy. 

We don’t have an option we have to recruit a striker. Quality costs. Fulham picked up Mitrovic and flew. If BZG have any money this is the type of level of player we should go for. 
If it’s down to Mel then he’ll sell someone to get Dursan in, which is a risk and also involves a  protracted window waiting for things to happen.

That would be a bad thing.

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I think we'll stay up but we'll struggle to get out the bottom 6 at any point & it'll be a pretty fraught last few weeks. I'll say 20th position. We clearly have talent throughout the squad but a continued lack of goals will severely restrict our ability to win games.

Post Cocu, we have 13 points from 11 matches (1.18) which averaged over a season is 54. Given we were already playing catch up, we would need to post a playoff finishing run of form for the remaining 24 games (1.67 points a match) just to hit the guaranteed dull midtable benchmark of 60 points. I don't believe we are capable of achieving this.

Also don't believe the takeover will go through & expect it to collapse fairly imminently. Consequently I doubt there will be many incomings..maybe a young Prem loanee striker. Irrespective of results, expect Rooney to be in charge until the end of the season.

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4 minutes ago, LeedsCityRam said:

I think we'll stay up but we'll struggle to get out the bottom 6 at any point & it'll be a pretty fraught last few weeks. I'll say 20th position. We clearly have talent throughout the squad but a continued lack of goals will severely restrict our ability to win games.

Post Cocu, we have 13 points from 11 matches (1.18) which averaged over a season is 54. Given we were already playing catch up, we would need to post a playoff finishing run of form for the remaining 24 games (1.67 points a match) just to hit the guaranteed dull midtable benchmark of 60 points. I don't believe we are capable of achieving this.

Also don't believe the takeover will go through & expect it to collapse fairly imminently. Consequently I doubt there will be many incomings..maybe a young Prem loanee striker. Irrespective of results, expect Rooney to be in charge until the end of the season.

When you look at it that way and the fact we averaged over 1.39 points per game last season without Bielik, Jozzy and CKR, it kinda makes you think... ?

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Just now, 86 Hair Islands said:

When you look at it that way and the fact we averaged over 1.39 points per game last season without Bielik, Jozzy and CKR, it kinda makes you think... ?

We also have a much better keeper now!

Think it shows that Cocu did a good job last season & guess will always wonder how we'd have finished had Covid not intervened, given how hot we were by March.

Guess the biggest difference is confidence..we had some points & results in the bag last year before we had a dreadful December. This year we have had practically nothing to hang onto/refer back to & that can paralyse a team, however talented. Think Sheff Utd are another good current example of that.

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Cocu did a good job last season? Not really, did OK but 10th place is hardly successful however you dress it up, it's acceptable and reaches minimum expectations but is nothing laudable. It is all based on if you think he had a role in signings, if he did then the job is classed as OK last season, if he didn't and was stuck with Dowell and other rubbish without input then I'd up that to slightly above average considering transfer dealings were so poor as they have been this season. 

I said at the time we had a very poor window and looking at the league table so far it's either that was correct or the management we have had this season have just not done enough with the tools available, I think probably somewhere in between. We needed a striker Kazim turned out a good one but was used too late by Cocu but he's hardly a reliable scorer and neither is Jozwiak so really we were crying out for a goal scoring box to box Aka Johnson or Dack style as well as a striker. 

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As for where we will finish. 17th.

Frankly not good enough for Derby County Football Club. If we go down everyone associated with the performances out on the pitch from players to coaching staff to Mel should be ashamed. I'd like to think we are a midtable side so shouldn't go down and we were obviously hard done by against Sheffield Wednesday but with us being where we are, relegation isn't something you can rule out completely. 

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